Union Berlin v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.90 – +0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
47.1%
Draw
26.9%
Holstein Kiel win
26.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDLDWWLL last 10
scored 14
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 20.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.83–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 0.90 xGHolstein Kiel 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Holstein Kiel attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Holstein Kiel |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Holstein Kiel |
Lasse Rosenboom | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 6' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 9' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 13' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 16' |
Holstein Kiel |
Max Geschwill | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lasse Rosenboom |
| 34' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 39' |
Holstein Kiel |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 41' |
Holstein Kiel |
Armin Gigovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Holstein Kiel |
Shuto Machino | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Max Geschwill |
| 56' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 57' |
Holstein Kiel |
Magnus Knudsen | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 62' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 71' |
Holstein Kiel |
Marko Ivezic | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Holtby |
| 72' |
Holstein Kiel |
Shuto Machino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Steven Skrzybski |
| 79' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | László Bénes |
| 86' |
Holstein Kiel |
Shuto Machino | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Steven Skrzybski |
| 91' |
Union Berlin |
Frederik Rönnow | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | László Bénes |
Players
Holstein Kiel
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shuto Machino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| Magnus Knudsen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Lasse Rosenboom MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Timon Weiner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marco Komenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Max Geschwill ML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| David Zec DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Timo Becker DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Phil Harres FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Armin Gigovic AMC | 61 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lewis Holtby Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Marko Ivezic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Steven Skrzybski Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Marvin Schulz Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dominik Javorcek Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Josip Juranovic DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Tousart MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marin Ljubicic FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| László Bénes Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.00 |
| Jérôme Roussillon Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Volland Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |