Union Berlin v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 12 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.20
Goals − xG
+1.52 – +0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
27.8%
Draw
25.9%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
46.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig have scored 24 from 22.6 expected and conceded 20 from 21.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWLWLWLWLW last 10
scored 24
from 22.6 xG
conceded 20
from 21.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.24–1.22 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 1.48 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frederik Rönnow |
| 9' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | David Raum |
| 16' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 38' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
David Raum | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 43' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 45' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 56' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 56' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Woo-Yeong Jeong |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Conrad Harder |
| 62' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Christopher Trimmel |
| 79' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 82' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Andrija Maksimovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Castello Lukeba |
| 86' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.83 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 68 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 68 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Christopher Trimmel Sub | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Stanley N'Soki Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Yan Diomande FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| Conrad Harder FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Willi Orban DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Xaver Schlager MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kosta Nedeljkovic DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Johan Bakayoko FWR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Andrija Maksimovic Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Timo Werner Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |