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Union Berlin v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 30 August 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

1–0
1.05 – 0.64 xG
Shots
11 – 8
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.05 – -0.64
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Benedict Hollerbach 33' — goal
Union Berlin 1.05 xGSt. Pauli 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jordan Siebatcheu 5' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yorbe Vertessen 9' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Johannes Eggestein 13' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Jordan Siebatcheu 15' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, From Corner)Johannes Eggestein 20' — Missed Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Lucas Tousart 25' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lucas Tousart 32' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Benedict Hollerbach 33' — Goal (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jordan Siebatcheu 35' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Lucas Tousart 46' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Diogo Leite 51' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jordan Siebatcheu 60' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Elias Saad 65' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Adam Dzwigala 66' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Adam Dzwigala 76' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, From Corner)László Bénes 80' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Elias Saad 81' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Oladapo Afolayan 86' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Oladapo Afolayan 94' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Union Berlin attacking right St. Pauli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Union Berlin Jordan Siebatcheu 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yorbe Vertessen
9' Union Berlin Yorbe Vertessen 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Diogo Leite
13' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
15' Union Berlin Jordan Siebatcheu 0.30 From Corner Saved Shot Benedict Hollerbach
20' St. Pauli Johannes Eggestein 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jackson Irvine
25' Union Berlin Lucas Tousart 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Benedict Hollerbach
32' Union Berlin Lucas Tousart 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yorbe Vertessen
33' Union Berlin Benedict Hollerbach 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Goal
35' Union Berlin Jordan Siebatcheu 0.38 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Union Berlin Lucas Tousart 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Yorbe Vertessen
51' Union Berlin Diogo Leite 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
60' Union Berlin Jordan Siebatcheu 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Yorbe Vertessen
65' St. Pauli Elias Saad 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jackson Irvine
66' St. Pauli Adam Dzwigala 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Connor Metcalfe
76' St. Pauli Adam Dzwigala 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Shot On Post Connor Metcalfe
80' Union Berlin László Bénes 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Danilho Doekhi
81' St. Pauli Elias Saad 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lars Ritzka
86' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Andreas Albers
94' St. Pauli Oladapo Afolayan 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Elias Saad

Players

Union Berlin

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jordan Siebatcheu FW 90 0 0 4 0 0.79 0.00 0.50
Diogo Leite DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.05
Rani Khedira MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Tom Rothe DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Danilho Doekhi DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Janik Haberer DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Frederik Rönnow GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Kevin Vogt DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Benedict Hollerbach AMC 79 1 0 1 2 0.04 0.39 0.12
Lucas Tousart MC 68 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.12
Yorbe Vertessen AMC 68 0 0 1 4 0.02 0.20 0.07
László Bénes Sub 22 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Andras Schafer Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tim Skarke Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leopold Querfeld Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

St. Pauli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hauke Wahl DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Jackson Irvine DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.34 0.37
Karol Mets DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Nikola Vasilj GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Philipp Treu MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Connor Metcalfe MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.03
Johannes Eggestein FW 84 0 0 2 0 0.37 0.00 0.34
Lars Ritzka ML 84 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Morgan Guilavogui FW 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Robert Wagner MC 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Adam Dzwigala Sub 51 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.05
Eric Smith DC 39 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Elias Saad Sub 28 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.03 0.08
Oladapo Afolayan Sub 27 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.09
Carlo Boukhalfa Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andreas Albers Sub 6 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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