Union Berlin v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 13
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.97 – 0.59
Goals − xG
+1.83 – +2.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
30.7%
Draw
28.6%
VfB Stuttgart win
40.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 2.17 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.60 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 4' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 8' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Leonidas Stergiou | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Millot |
| 18' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.44 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Leopold Querfeld |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 28' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Enzo Millot | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
| 32' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leonidas Stergiou |
| 35' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 37' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Diogo Leite |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.41 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Deniz Undav |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.39 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Christopher Trimmel |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 61' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 65' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 67' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 75' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 81' |
Union Berlin |
László Bénes | 0.39 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Union Berlin |
Marin Ljubicic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | László Bénes |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| Leonidas Stergiou DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.25 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Chris Führich AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.31 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Enzo Millot AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pascal Stenzel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.03 |
| Tom Rothe DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.07 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 89 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| László Bénes Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |