Union Berlin v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 21
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.41
Goals − xG
+1.46 – -0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
26.4%
Draw
25.9%
VfB Stuttgart win
47.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDLWLLWLL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 19
from 24.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 0.54 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.80 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 11' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 17' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 20' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 26' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 33' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Jaquez |
| 39' |
Union Berlin |
Robert Skov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 43' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 44' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 48' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrej Ilic |
| 48' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Skov |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 77' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 80' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Chris Führich |
| 87' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lazar Jovanovic | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 94' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 97' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lazar Jovanovic |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 1.08 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Luca Jaquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Nick Woltemade AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.59 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.66 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| Lazar Jovanovic Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 82 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Robert Skov DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |