Union Berlin v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 15
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +1.76
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
48.3%
Draw
27.9%
Werder Bremen win
23.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.53–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.09 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 1.14 xGWerder Bremen 2.24 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 6' |
 Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 17' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 21' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 23' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 30' |
Werder Bremen |
Olivier Deman | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Jens Stage |
| 34' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Goal | Cameron Puertas |
| 37' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Derrick Köhn |
| 43' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Werder Bremen |
Jens Stage | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Olivier Deman |
| 49' |
Werder Bremen |
Leonardo Bittencourt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 51' |
Union Berlin |
Derrick Köhn | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
| 65' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Romano Schmid |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Cameron Puertas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 77' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 93' |
Werder Bremen |
Patrice Covic | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Leonardo Bittencourt |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 1.05 |
| Cameron Puertas MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.35 | 0.86 |
| Romano Schmid FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.81 | 1.08 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Olivier Deman DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.82 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Marco Grüll FWR | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Keke Maximilian Topp FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Sub | 38 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| Julián Malatini Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Justin Njinmah Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.56 |
| Patrice Covic Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Isaac Schmidt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Köhn DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Christopher Trimmel Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |