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Unión La Calera v Deportes Limache — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Unión La Calera win
27.2%
model 27.4%
Draw
21.7%
model 20.0%
Deportes Limache win
51.1%
model 52.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 11.6%
  2. 1-2 9.6%
  3. 1-1 9.3%
  4. 1-0 8.4%
  5. 0-2 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.554.7% Under 2.545.3%
BTTS yes54.2% BTTS no45.8%
Unión La Calera 1+68.4% Unión La Calera 2+32.0%
Deportes Limache 1+82.1% Deportes Limache 2+51.2%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.72. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Deportes Limache (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 30%
51.6% fair odds 1.94
strong signal · 1020 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.1% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Deportes Limache carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1325.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Deportes Limache have an estimated 51.1% win probability, against 27.2% for Unión La Calera and 21.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for Unión La Calera and 1.72 for Deportes Limache.

Why Unión La Calera

They have had 14 days' rest to Deportes Limache's 7.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.7%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Deportes Limache can win

Deportes Limache carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1325. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Unión La Calera, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportes Limache, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Unión La Calera: 47% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportes Limache: 42% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Deportes Limache are the model's most likely outcome at 51.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.15–1.72 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.06–1.69 0-1 13% 52% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to win 52.5% 51.9% 30.0% 1.73× 1.93
Unión La Calera to win 27.4% 27.6% 49.0% 0.56× 3.62
Draw 20.1% 22.1% 21.2% 1.04× 4.53
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache & not both score 27.8% 26.4% 16.8% 1.57× 3.79
Deportes Limache & both teams score 24.7% 22.6% 13.4% 1.69× 4.42
Draw & both teams score 16.3% 17.7% 16.6% 1.07× 5.64
Unión La Calera & not both score 14.2% 12.2% 26.8% 0.45× 8.21
Unión La Calera & both teams score 13.3% 12.2% 22.4% 0.54× 8.22
Draw & not both score 3.8% 3.7% 4.9% 0.75× 27.25
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache & over 1.5 40.9% 43.9% 20.0% 2.19× 2.28
Deportes Limache & under 3.5 34.4% 33.2% 23.4% 1.42× 3.01
Deportes Limache & over 2.5 32.5% 33.2% 16.6% 2.00× 3.02
Unión La Calera & under 3.5 20.1% 21.5% 34.1% 0.63× 4.65
Deportes Limache & under 2.5 20.0% 21.5% 13.7% 1.57× 4.65
Unión La Calera & over 1.5 19.0% 17.6% 36.1% 0.49× 5.69
Deportes Limache & over 3.5 18.1% 17.6% 6.8% 2.57× 5.69
Draw & over 1.5 16.3% 17.6% 16.6% 1.06× 5.70
Unión La Calera & over 2.5 15.2% 17.6% 29.3% 0.60× 5.70
Draw & under 2.5 13.1% 12.7% 13.9% 0.92× 7.86
Draw & under 3.5 13.1% 12.7% 13.9% 0.92× 7.86
Unión La Calera & under 2.5 12.2% 12.7% 20.0% 0.64× 7.86
Deportes Limache & under 1.5 11.6% 12.7% 10.2% 1.24× 7.87
Unión La Calera & under 1.5 8.4% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Unión La Calera & over 3.5 7.3% 7.5% 15.1% 0.49× 13.41
Draw & over 2.5 6.9% 7.5% 7.6% 0.99× 13.41
Draw & over 3.5 6.9% 7.5% 7.6% 0.99× 13.41
Draw & under 1.5 3.8% 4.6% 4.9% 0.93× 21.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (1UP) 66.5% 72.1% 1.39
Unión La Calera (1UP) 44.9% 43.6% 2.30
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (2UP) 52.5% 53.9% 1.85
Unión La Calera (2UP) 27.4% 30.6% 3.26
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to win 2nd half 44.4% 39.6% 2.53
2nd half drawn 32.0% 33.7% 2.97
Unión La Calera to win 2nd half 23.6% 22.3% 4.48
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (+2.5) 96.9% 97.2% 89.5% 1.09× 1.03
Deportes Limache (+1.5) 90.0% 89.1% 76.8% 1.16× 1.12
Deportes Limache (+0.5) 72.6% 73.1% 51.0% 1.43× 1.37
Deportes Limache (-0.5) 52.5% 51.6% 30.0% 1.72× 1.94
Unión La Calera (+0.5) 47.5% 48.4% 70.0% 0.69× 2.07
Unión La Calera (-0.5) 27.4% 26.9% 49.0% 0.55× 3.72
Unión La Calera (-1.5) 10.0% 10.9% 23.2% 0.47× 9.15
Unión La Calera (-2.5) 3.1% 2.8% 10.5% 0.27× 35.20
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to concede 68.4% 71.3% 78.5% 0.91× 1.40
Deportes Limache clean sheet 31.6% 28.7% 21.5% 1.34× 3.48
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache clean sheet in 1st half 61.0% 60.5% 1.65
Deportes Limache to concede in 1st half 39.0% 39.5% 2.53
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 6.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% 1.23
Deportes Limache over 2.5 corners 75.9% 76.0% 1.32
Deportes Limache under 5.5 corners 70.3% 71.6% 1.40
Deportes Limache over 3.5 corners 59.7% 57.1% 1.75
Deportes Limache under 4.5 corners 56.5% 57.1% 1.75
Deportes Limache over 4.5 corners 43.5% 42.9% 2.33
Deportes Limache under 3.5 corners 40.3% 42.9% 2.33
Deportes Limache over 5.5 corners 29.7% 28.4% 3.52
Deportes Limache under 2.5 corners 24.1% 24.0% 4.16
Deportes Limache over 6.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% 5.37
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 3.5 goals 90.4% 92.6% 97.1% 0.95× 1.08
Deportes Limache over 0.5 goals 82.1% 82.2% 68.5% 1.20× 1.22
Deportes Limache under 2.5 goals 75.2% 75.2% 88.3% 0.85× 1.33
Deportes Limache over 1.5 goals 51.2% 51.8% 31.5% 1.65× 1.93
Deportes Limache under 1.5 goals 48.8% 48.2% 68.5% 0.70× 2.08
Deportes Limache over 2.5 goals 24.8% 24.8% 11.7% 2.12× 4.03
Deportes Limache under 0.5 goals 17.9% 17.8% 31.5% 0.57× 5.62
Deportes Limache over 3.5 goals 9.6% 7.4% 2.9% 2.53× 13.49
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 1.5 in 1st half 84.9% 81.4% 1.23
Deportes Limache under 0.5 in 1st half 50.3% 50.8% 1.97
Deportes Limache over 0.5 in 1st half 49.7% 49.2% 2.03
Deportes Limache over 1.5 in 1st half 15.1% 18.6% 5.37
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (away no bet) 57.8% 59.0% 69.8% 0.85× 1.69
Draw (away no bet) 42.2% 41.0% 30.2% 1.36× 2.44
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache even goals 51.6% 52.4% 53.7% 0.98× 1.91
Deportes Limache odd goals 48.4% 47.6% 46.3% 1.03× 2.10
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.4% 81.8% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.6% 18.2% 5.48
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.8% 65.1% 1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.2% 34.9% 2.86
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 58.9% 59.3% 1.69
Deportes Limache to score 2+ in a row 42.7% 45.0% 2.22
Unión La Calera to score 2+ in a row 23.0% 21.8% 4.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.3% 21.8% 4.59
Deportes Limache to score 3+ in a row 16.8% 17.8% 5.62
Unión La Calera to score 3+ in a row 5.8% 7.3% 13.71
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera corners (+3.5) 91.6% 89.5% 1.12
Unión La Calera corners (+2.5) 87.0% 84.5% 1.18
Unión La Calera corners (+1.5) 80.8% 79.8% 1.25
Deportes Limache corners (+3.5) 65.8% 65.8% 1.52
Deportes Limache corners (+2.5) 56.3% 57.1% 1.75
Unión La Calera corners (-1.5) 53.8% 52.5% 1.91
Deportes Limache corners (+1.5) 46.2% 47.5% 2.11
Unión La Calera corners (-2.5) 43.7% 42.9% 2.33
Unión La Calera corners (-3.5) 34.2% 34.2% 2.93
Deportes Limache corners (-1.5) 19.2% 20.2% 4.95
Deportes Limache corners (-2.5) 13.0% 15.5% 6.45
Deportes Limache corners (-3.5) 8.4% 10.5% 9.57
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 40.2% 38.2% 2.62
0-8 corners 30.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.0% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 78.1% 76.5% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 69.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 68.4% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 59.8% 57.9% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 59.4% 57.9% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.4% 53.2% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.6% 46.8% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 40.6% 42.1% 2.38
Over 11.5 corners 40.2% 42.1% 2.38
Over 12.5 corners 31.6% 32.3% 3.10
Under 8.5 corners 30.8% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 21.9% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 11.6% 11.6% 10.2% 1.13× 8.64
1-2 9.6% 7.3% 7.3% 1.00× 13.74
1-1 9.3% 7.3% 9.3% 0.79× 13.74
0-2 8.4% 7.3% 3.7% 1.99× 13.74
1-0 8.4% 7.3% 13.2% 0.55× 13.74
2-1 6.5% 7.3% 10.7% 0.68× 13.75
1-3 5.5% 7.3% 2.2% 3.31× 13.75
2-2 5.6% 7.3% 6.1% 1.19× 13.75
0-0 3.8% 1.8% 4.9% 0.37× 55.41
0-3 4.8% 1.8% 2.9% 0.62× 55.39
2-0 3.8% 1.8% 7.1% 0.26× 55.41
Any other score 3.7% 1.8% 3.4% 0.53× 55.42
2-3 3.2% 1.8% 2.2% 0.82× 55.43
3-1 2.5% 1.8% 4.6% 0.39× 55.45
0-4 2.1% 1.8% 0.7% 2.46× 55.46
1-4 2.4% 1.8% 0.7% 2.46× 55.45
2-4 1.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.85× 55.47
3-0 1.4% 1.8% 3.9% 0.46× 55.47
3-2 2.1% 1.8% 2.0% 0.92× 55.46
3-3 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.06× 55.48
3-4 0.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.85× 55.50
4-0 0.4% 1.8% 2.4% 0.74× 55.50
4-1 0.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.06× 55.49
4-2 0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.06× 55.49
4-3 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 1.85× 55.50
4-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.2% 7.39× 55.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache leading at HT (DNB) 60.4% 64.8% 1.54
Unión La Calera leading at HT (DNB) 39.6% 35.2% 2.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera or Deportes Limache (12) 80.0% 77.9% 78.8% 0.99× 1.28
Deportes Limache or draw (X2) 72.6% 72.4% 51.0% 1.42× 1.38
Unión La Calera or draw (1X) 47.5% 48.1% 70.0% 0.69× 2.08
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache or draw at HT 76.8% 78.7% 1.27
Unión La Calera or draw at HT 64.6% 63.3% 1.58
Unión La Calera or Deportes Limache at HT 58.6% 58.2% 1.72
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache or draw (1UP) 72.6% 77.4% 1.29
Unión La Calera or draw (1UP) 47.5% 55.0% 1.82
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache or draw in 2nd half 76.4% 77.7% 1.29
Unión La Calera or Deportes Limache in 2nd half 68.0% 66.3% 1.51
Unión La Calera or draw in 2nd half 55.6% 60.4% 1.66
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.2% 59.4% 1.68
Neither half drawn 37.8% 40.6% 2.46
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (DNB) 65.7% 68.1% 38.0% 1.79× 1.47
Unión La Calera (DNB) 34.3% 31.9% 62.0% 0.51× 3.14
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to score first 57.6% 62.1% 1.61
Unión La Calera to score first 38.6% 37.3% 2.68
No goal scored 3.8% 4.0% 24.92
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.2% 52.9% 52.0% 1.02× 1.89
Not both teams to score 45.8% 47.1% 48.0% 0.98× 2.12
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.9% 42.4% 42.9% 0.99× 2.36
Not both score & under 2.5 36.0% 37.4% 38.0% 0.98× 2.67
Not both score & over 2.5 9.8% 8.8% 10.2% 0.85× 11.43
Both score & under 2.5 9.3% 8.7% 9.3% 0.94× 11.44
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.6% 81.3% 84.6% 0.96× 1.23
Both teams to score 2+ 16.4% 18.7% 15.4% 1.22× 5.35
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.7% 69.6% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.3% 30.4% 3.28
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.6% 57.6% 1.74
Both score 2nd half only 24.3% 24.4% 4.09
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 11.6% 8.64
Both score in both halves 6.0% 6.5% 15.50
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.9% 83.1% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 19.1% 16.9% 5.93
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.6% 55.6% 1.80
A half without a goal 44.4% 44.4% 2.25
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.8% 43.2% 43.4% 1.00× 2.31
4-6 goals 29.6% 27.8% 26.8% 1.03× 3.60
0-1 goals 23.8% 22.8% 27.8% 0.82× 4.38
7+ goals 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 0.80× 51.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to score exactly 1 30.8% 33.2% 37.3% 0.89× 3.01
Deportes Limache to score exactly 2 26.5% 27.1% 20.0% 1.35× 3.70
Deportes Limache to score 3+ 24.8% 24.0% 11.7% 2.05× 4.16
Deportes Limache to score exactly 0 17.9% 18.4% 31.5% 0.58× 5.45
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to score exactly 1 36.4% 36.0% 31.7% 1.13× 2.78
Unión La Calera to score exactly 0 31.6% 30.5% 21.5% 1.42× 3.28
Unión La Calera to score exactly 2 21.0% 22.9% 26.3% 0.87× 4.36
Unión La Calera to score 3+ 11.0% 13.4% 21.0% 0.64× 7.46
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.4% 41.8% 2.39
Deportes Limache leading at HT 35.4% 36.7% 2.72
Unión La Calera leading at HT 23.2% 21.3% 4.69
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache -1: 1 47.5% 47.5% 2.10
Deportes Limache -1: 2 27.5% 27.1% 3.69
Deportes Limache -1: X 25.0% 27.0% 3.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:1) 72.6% 68.7% 51.0% 1.35× 1.46
Draw (0:1) 17.4% 18.3% 26.1% 0.70× 5.47
Unión La Calera (0:1) 10.0% 10.5% 23.2% 0.45× 9.50
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:2) 90.0% 89.9% 76.8% 1.17× 1.11
Draw (0:2) 6.9% 7.2% 12.9% 0.55× 13.96
Unión La Calera (0:2) 3.1% 3.0% 10.5% 0.29× 33.22
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:3) 96.9% 97.1% 89.5% 1.09× 1.03
Draw (0:3) 2.3% 2.3% 5.4% 0.43× 43.09
Unión La Calera (0:3) 0.8% 2.3% 5.4% 0.43× 43.43
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:4) 99.2% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.6% 1.2% 4.1% 0.30× 81.04
Unión La Calera (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.84× 81.27
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (1:0) 47.5% 46.3% 70.0% 0.66× 2.16
Deportes Limache (1:0) 27.5% 28.7% 10.2% 2.80× 3.49
Draw (1:0) 25.0% 28.4% 20.0% 1.42× 3.53
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (2:0) 72.5% 74.4% 89.8% 0.83× 1.34
Draw (2:0) 15.5% 14.8% 6.3% 2.34× 6.75
Deportes Limache (2:0) 12.0% 12.1% 4.1% 2.91× 8.28
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.7% 50.5% 1.98
1st half highest scoring 28.0% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 21.2% 23.1% 4.33
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to concede 82.1% 84.7% 68.5% 1.24× 1.18
Unión La Calera clean sheet 17.9% 15.3% 31.5% 0.49× 6.53
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 1st half 50.3% 50.8% 1.97
Unión La Calera to concede in 1st half 49.7% 49.2% 2.03
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera over 2.5 corners 90.4% 89.3% 1.12
Unión La Calera over 3.5 corners 81.1% 81.0% 1.24
Unión La Calera over 4.5 corners 69.3% 66.7% 1.50
Unión La Calera over 5.5 corners 56.5% 57.6% 1.74
Unión La Calera under 6.5 corners 55.9% 57.6% 1.74
Unión La Calera over 6.5 corners 44.1% 42.4% 2.36
Unión La Calera under 5.5 corners 43.5% 42.4% 2.36
Unión La Calera under 4.5 corners 30.7% 33.3% 3.01
Unión La Calera under 3.5 corners 18.9% 19.0% 5.26
Unión La Calera under 2.5 corners 9.6% 10.7% 9.33
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 3.5 goals 97.0% 97.7% 91.0% 1.07× 1.02
Unión La Calera under 2.5 goals 89.0% 87.8% 79.0% 1.11× 1.14
Unión La Calera over 0.5 goals 68.4% 68.8% 78.5% 0.88× 1.45
Unión La Calera under 1.5 goals 68.0% 68.8% 52.9% 1.30× 1.45
Unión La Calera over 1.5 goals 32.0% 31.2% 47.1% 0.66× 3.20
Unión La Calera under 0.5 goals 31.6% 31.2% 21.5% 1.45× 3.21
Unión La Calera over 2.5 goals 11.0% 12.2% 21.0% 0.58× 8.23
Unión La Calera over 3.5 goals 3.0% 2.3% 9.0% 0.25× 44.23
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 1st half 91.1% 93.1% 1.08
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 1st half 61.0% 60.3% 1.66
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 1st half 39.0% 39.7% 2.52
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 1st half 8.9% 6.9% 14.40
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (home no bet) 72.4% 68.2% 58.6% 1.17× 1.47
Draw (home no bet) 27.6% 31.8% 41.4% 0.77× 3.15
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera even goals 55.0% 50.3% 54.4% 0.92× 1.99
Unión La Calera odd goals 45.0% 49.7% 45.6% 1.09× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.3% 30.4% 3.29
HT 0-1 21.4% 22.6% 4.42
HT 1-0 15.5% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 10.1% 11.2% 8.96
HT 0-2 7.2% 7.7% 13.00
Any other HT score 4.6% 2.5% 39.74
HT 1-2 3.6% 2.5% 39.80
HT 2-0 3.8% 2.5% 39.79
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.5% 39.85
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.5% 39.95
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 29.7% 27.3% 3.67
Draw at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 19.5% 16.8% 5.96
Unión La Calera at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 15.1% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.1% 12.0% 8.37
Draw at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 10.7% 11.9% 8.37
Unión La Calera at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.31
Deportes Limache at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.4% 29.34
Unión La Calera at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 3.4% 3.4% 29.37
Deportes Limache at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 1.6% 3.4% 29.44
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to score last 57.4% 56.5% 1.77
Unión La Calera to score last 38.8% 38.1% 2.62
No goal scored 3.8% 4.0% 24.92
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.2% 96.0% 1.04
Deportes Limache to lead by 1 at any time 66.5% 70.8% 1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.5% 46.2% 2.17
Unión La Calera to lead by 1 at any time 44.9% 42.2% 2.37
Deportes Limache to lead by 2 at any time 34.4% 32.1% 3.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.0% 17.7% 5.65
Unión La Calera to lead by 2 at any time 15.4% 17.6% 5.67
Deportes Limache to lead by 3 at any time 14.6% 11.4% 8.80
Unión La Calera to lead by 3 at any time 4.4% 2.6% 37.83
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera most corners 63.7% 60.5% 1.65
Deportes Limache most corners 27.1% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 9.2% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.1% 87.9% 87.3% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.9% 78.9% 81.2% 0.97× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.4% 73.6% 70.0% 1.05× 1.36
2-5 goals 69.0% 68.4% 64.4% 1.06× 1.46
1-3 goals 63.9% 62.3% 66.3% 0.94× 1.61
2-4 goals 59.8% 58.8% 58.3% 1.01× 1.70
3-6 goals 52.0% 52.3% 50.7% 1.03× 1.91
3-5 goals 47.6% 48.0% 45.1% 1.06× 2.08
2-3 goals 43.8% 43.6% 43.4% 1.01× 2.29
1-2 goals 41.5% 43.6% 42.4% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.4% 38.9% 39.0% 1.00× 2.57
4-6 goals 29.6% 30.5% 26.8% 1.14× 3.28
4-5 goals 25.2% 30.4% 21.2% 1.43× 3.29
5-6 goals 13.6% 13.5% 12.0% 1.13× 7.41
7+ goals 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 0.83× 49.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache never behind 51.3% 61.2% 1.63
Unión La Calera never behind 29.7% 31.1% 3.21
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.4% 50.1% 44.9% 1.12× 2.00
Odd number of goals 53.6% 49.9% 55.1% 0.91× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.0% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.0% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.4% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.6% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.2% 95.6% 95.1% 1.01× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 92.9% 93.0% 92.0% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.7% 81.0% 85.9% 0.94× 1.24
Over 1.5 goals 76.2% 78.2% 72.2% 1.08× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 67.6% 65.5% 71.0% 0.92× 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 54.7% 53.6% 52.9% 1.01× 1.87
Under 2.5 goals 45.3% 46.4% 47.1% 0.99× 2.16
Over 3.5 goals 32.4% 34.5% 29.0% 1.19× 2.90
Under 1.5 goals 23.8% 21.8% 27.8% 0.78× 4.59
Over 4.5 goals 16.3% 19.0% 14.1% 1.34× 5.26
Over 5.5 goals 7.1% 7.1% 8.0% 0.88× 14.19
Under 0.5 goals 3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 0.90× 22.87
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.1% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.2% 92.7% 91.4% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.6% 80.6% 83.4% 0.97× 1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.7% 68.1% 65.6% 1.04× 1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.3% 55.4% 61.9% 0.90× 1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.7% 44.6% 38.1% 1.17× 2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.4% 31.9% 34.4% 0.93× 3.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.4% 19.4% 16.6% 1.17× 5.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.8% 7.3% 8.6% 0.85× 13.73
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.07× 36.01
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.3% 88.1% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.7% 68.6% 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.2% 68.6% 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.8% 31.4% 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.3% 31.4% 3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.7% 11.9% 8.41
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.1% 82.1% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.1% 80.2% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.6% 51.9% 1.93
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.4% 48.1% 2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.9% 19.8% 5.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.9% 17.9% 5.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to score in both halves 81.2% 81.5% 1.23
Deportes Limache not to score in both halves 68.0% 67.0% 1.49
Deportes Limache to score in both halves 32.0% 33.0% 3.03
Unión La Calera to score in both halves 18.8% 18.5% 5.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.2% 54.8% 52.0% 1.05× 1.83
Only Deportes Limache scores 27.8% 25.7% 16.8% 1.53× 3.89
Only Unión La Calera scores 14.2% 10.9% 26.8% 0.40× 9.22
Neither team scores 3.8% 3.9% 4.9% 0.80× 25.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 21.5% 24.1% 0.89× 4.64
Exactly 2 goals 21.5% 21.5% 19.5% 1.10× 4.64
Exactly 1 goals 20.1% 21.5% 23.2% 0.93× 4.65
Exactly 4 goals 16.0% 18.5% 15.1% 1.23× 5.39
Exactly 5 goals 9.2% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.11
6 or more goals 7.1% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 3.8% 4.4% 4.9% 0.89× 22.91
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.6% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 32.5% 33.2% 3.02
No goals in 2nd half 17.9% 18.4% 5.45
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win both halves 94.8% 93.4% 1.07
Deportes Limache not to win both halves 84.6% 83.0% 1.21
Deportes Limache to win both halves 15.4% 17.0% 5.88
Unión La Calera to win both halves 5.2% 6.6% 15.22
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to win either half 64.5% 63.7% 1.57
Unión La Calera to win neither half 58.5% 59.5% 1.68
Unión La Calera to win either half 41.5% 40.5% 2.47
Deportes Limache to win neither half 35.5% 36.3% 2.76
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win to nil 85.8% 88.2% 73.2% 1.21× 1.13
Deportes Limache not to win to nil 72.2% 74.3% 83.2% 0.89× 1.35
Deportes Limache to win to nil 27.8% 25.7% 16.8% 1.53× 3.89
Unión La Calera to win to nil 14.2% 11.8% 26.8% 0.44× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache by 1 25.0% 28.0% 20.0% 1.40× 3.58
Draw 20.1% 23.7% 21.2% 1.12× 4.22
Unión La Calera by 1 17.4% 17.0% 26.1% 0.65× 5.89
Deportes Limache by 2 15.5% 17.0% 6.3% 2.67× 5.90
Deportes Limache by 3+ 12.0% 11.9% 4.1% 2.86× 8.44
Unión La Calera by 2 6.9% 7.1% 12.9% 0.55× 14.11
Unión La Calera by 3+ 3.1% 2.8% 10.5% 0.27× 35.34
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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