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Unión La Calera v Huachipato — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Unión La Calera win
41.7%
model 42.0%
Draw
21.9%
model 21.8%
Huachipato win
36.3%
model 36.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.8%
  2. 0-1 11.0%
  3. 1-1 10.3%
  4. 2-1 8.6%
  5. 1-2 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.549.6% Under 2.550.4%
BTTS yes51.9% BTTS no48.1%
Unión La Calera 1+75.1% Unión La Calera 2+40.5%
Huachipato 1+71.8% Huachipato 2+36.1%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.27. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
2-5 goals
Multi goal · usually 64%
68.0% fair odds 1.47
moderate signal · 2774 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Huachipato (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 77%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Unión La Calera.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Unión La Calera have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Huachipato and 21.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Unión La Calera and 1.27 for Huachipato.

Why Unión La Calera

Nothing in the data singles out Unión La Calera.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.27. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Huachipato can win

Huachipato carry the stronger rating, 1413 Elo against 1325.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Unión La Calera, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Huachipato, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Unión La Calera: 47% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Huachipato: 44% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 22.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Unión La Calera are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.8%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.39–1.27 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.31–1.33 0-1 12% 49% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to win 39.5% 36.4% 30.0% 1.21× 2.75
Unión La Calera to win 38.5% 36.4% 49.0% 0.74× 2.75
Draw 22.0% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato & not both score 22.0% 21.8% 16.8% 1.29× 4.59
Unión La Calera & not both score 21.4% 21.8% 26.8% 0.81× 4.59
Huachipato & both teams score 17.5% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.56
Unión La Calera & both teams score 17.1% 18.0% 22.4% 0.80× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 16.9% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Draw & not both score 5.1% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato & under 3.5 29.0% 26.1% 23.4% 1.11× 3.84
Unión La Calera & under 3.5 28.4% 26.1% 34.1% 0.76× 3.84
Huachipato & over 1.5 27.9% 26.1% 20.0% 1.30× 3.84
Unión La Calera & over 1.5 27.0% 26.1% 36.1% 0.72× 3.84
Huachipato & over 2.5 21.5% 21.6% 16.6% 1.30× 4.63
Unión La Calera & over 2.5 20.9% 21.6% 29.3% 0.74× 4.63
Unión La Calera & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Huachipato & under 2.5 17.9% 18.0% 13.7% 1.32× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.29× 5.56
Unión La Calera & under 1.5 11.5% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
Huachipato & under 1.5 11.6% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Huachipato & over 3.5 10.5% 12.8% 6.8% 1.88× 7.79
Unión La Calera & over 3.5 10.1% 12.8% 15.1% 0.85× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 6.6% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.6% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (1UP) 54.9% 52.5% — — 1.91
Unión La Calera (1UP) 54.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (2UP) 39.5% 37.5% — — 2.67
Unión La Calera (2UP) 38.5% 37.4% — — 2.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 34.7% 34.0% — — 2.94
Huachipato to win 2nd half 34.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
Unión La Calera to win 2nd half 31.2% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.0% 84.0% — — 1.19
Huachipato over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.9% 52.5% — — 1.90
Huachipato under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.1% 47.5% — — 2.11
Huachipato over 1.5 in 2nd half 19.0% 16.0% — — 6.26
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.8% 82.4% — — 1.21
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 55.0% — — 1.82
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 45.0% — — 2.22
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.2% 17.6% — — 5.69
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (+2.5) 94.4% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Huachipato (+1.5) 83.8% 82.6% 76.8% 1.07× 1.21
Huachipato (+0.5) 61.5% 62.9% 51.0% 1.23× 1.59
Unión La Calera (+0.5) 60.5% 62.9% 70.0% 0.90× 1.59
Huachipato (-0.5) 39.5% 37.1% 30.0% 1.24× 2.70
Unión La Calera (-0.5) 38.5% 37.1% 49.0% 0.76× 2.70
Unión La Calera (-1.5) 16.2% 17.4% 23.2% 0.75× 5.74
Unión La Calera (-2.5) 5.6% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to concede 72.9% 76.7% 78.5% 0.98× 1.30
Huachipato clean sheet 27.1% 23.3% 21.5% 1.09× 4.29
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato clean sheet in 1st half 57.0% 56.5% — — 1.77
Huachipato to concede in 1st half 43.0% 43.5% — — 2.30
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to concede in 2nd half 52.5% 54.5% — — 1.84
Huachipato clean sheet in 2nd half 47.5% 45.5% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 6.5 corners 82.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
Huachipato over 2.5 corners 74.2% 71.6% — — 1.40
Huachipato under 5.5 corners 72.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Huachipato under 4.5 corners 58.8% 57.2% — — 1.75
Huachipato over 3.5 corners 57.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Huachipato under 3.5 corners 42.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Huachipato over 4.5 corners 41.2% 42.8% — — 2.34
Huachipato over 5.5 corners 27.6% 28.4% — — 3.52
Huachipato under 2.5 corners 25.8% 28.4% — — 3.53
Huachipato over 6.5 corners 17.4% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 3.5 goals 95.4% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Huachipato under 2.5 goals 85.1% 87.8% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
Huachipato over 0.5 goals 73.5% 71.8% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
Huachipato under 1.5 goals 61.7% 63.2% 68.5% 0.92× 1.58
Huachipato over 1.5 goals 38.3% 36.8% 31.5% 1.17× 2.72
Huachipato under 0.5 goals 26.5% 28.2% 31.5% 0.90× 3.55
Huachipato over 2.5 goals 14.9% 12.2% 11.7% 1.04× 8.19
Huachipato over 3.5 goals 4.6% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 1.5 in 1st half 90.0% 93.8% — — 1.07
Huachipato under 0.5 in 1st half 58.8% 62.4% — — 1.60
Huachipato over 0.5 in 1st half 41.2% 37.6% — — 2.66
Huachipato over 1.5 in 1st half 10.0% 6.2% — — 16.25
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato scores equally in both 39.0% 37.4% — — 2.68
Huachipato scores more in 2nd half 38.6% 37.4% — — 2.68
Huachipato scores more in 1st half 22.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (away no bet) 63.6% 61.9% 69.8% 0.89× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.4% 38.1% 30.2% 1.26× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato even goals 53.5% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Huachipato odd goals 46.5% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.4% 87.8% — — 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.6% 12.2% — — 8.21
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.8% 57.4% — — 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.2% 42.6% — — 2.35
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 53.6% 51.0% — — 1.96
Huachipato to score 2+ in a row 30.1% 28.8% — — 3.47
Unión La Calera to score 2+ in a row 29.4% 25.0% — — 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.9% 16.2% — — 6.19
Huachipato to score 3+ in a row 9.3% 5.5% — — 18.04
Unión La Calera to score 3+ in a row 8.9% 5.5% — — 18.07
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera corners (+3.5) 92.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Unión La Calera corners (+2.5) 88.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Unión La Calera corners (+1.5) 83.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Huachipato corners (+3.5) 62.4% 61.9% — — 1.62
Unión La Calera corners (-1.5) 57.2% 57.2% — — 1.75
Huachipato corners (+2.5) 52.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Unión La Calera corners (-2.5) 47.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
Huachipato corners (+1.5) 42.8% 42.8% — — 2.33
Unión La Calera corners (-3.5) 37.6% 38.1% — — 2.62
Huachipato corners (-1.5) 16.9% 20.2% — — 4.95
Huachipato corners (-2.5) 11.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Huachipato corners (-3.5) 7.1% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 40.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
0-8 corners 30.3% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 78.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 69.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 67.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 60.0% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 59.2% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 50.2% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 49.8% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 40.8% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 40.0% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 32.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 30.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 21.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 11.6% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.71
1-0 11.5% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.72
1-1 10.4% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-1 8.1% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
0-0 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
0-2 6.3% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.51
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
2-2 5.4% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-3 3.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
1-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-3 2.4% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.30
3-1 3.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.30
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.31
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 2.2% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (2nd half DNB) 52.3% 54.5% — — 1.84
Unión La Calera (2nd half DNB) 47.7% 45.5% — — 2.20
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera leading at HT (DNB) 51.8% 56.0% — — 1.79
Huachipato leading at HT (DNB) 48.2% 44.0% — — 2.27
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera or Huachipato (12) 78.0% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Huachipato or draw (X2) 61.5% 63.6% 51.0% 1.25× 1.57
Unión La Calera or draw (1X) 60.5% 63.6% 70.0% 0.91× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera or draw at HT 72.8% 74.5% — — 1.34
Huachipato or draw at HT 70.8% 74.4% — — 1.34
Unión La Calera or Huachipato at HT 56.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato or draw (1UP) 61.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
Unión La Calera or draw (1UP) 60.5% 71.5% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato or draw in 2nd half 68.8% 66.0% — — 1.51
Unión La Calera or draw in 2nd half 65.8% 66.0% — — 1.52
Unión La Calera or Huachipato in 2nd half 65.3% 66.0% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 65.4% 68.0% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 34.6% 32.0% — — 3.13
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (DNB) 50.6% 50.9% 38.0% 1.34× 1.97
Unión La Calera (DNB) 49.4% 49.1% 62.0% 0.79× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to score first 47.8% 45.9% — — 2.18
Unión La Calera to score first 47.1% 45.8% — — 2.18
No goal scored 5.1% 7.5% — — 13.34
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.5% 51.3% 52.0% 0.99× 1.95
Not both teams to score 48.5% 48.7% 48.0% 1.01× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.2% 41.6% 42.9% 0.97× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 40.6% 41.6% 38.0% 1.09× 2.41
Both score & under 2.5 10.4% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.9% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.6% 85.6% 84.6% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.4% 14.4% 15.4% 0.94× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.9% 73.6% — — 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.1% 26.4% — — 3.79
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.6% 60.2% — — 1.66
Both score 2nd half only 23.0% 21.3% — — 4.70
Both score 1st half only 12.2% 10.7% — — 9.32
Both score in both halves 5.1% 6.7% — — 14.85
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.6% 83.5% — — 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 17.4% 16.5% — — 6.05
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.2% 52.5% — — 1.90
A half without a goal 48.8% 47.5% — — 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 28.2% 26.6% 27.8% 0.96× 3.76
4-6 goals 25.3% 26.6% 26.8% 0.99× 3.76
7+ goals 1.8% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.38
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to score exactly 1 35.2% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.79
Huachipato to score exactly 0 26.5% 27.4% 31.5% 0.87× 3.64
Huachipato to score exactly 2 23.4% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Huachipato to score 3+ 14.9% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to score exactly 1 35.4% 35.5% 31.7% 1.12× 2.81
Unión La Calera to score exactly 0 27.1% 26.6% 21.5% 1.24× 3.77
Unión La Calera to score exactly 2 23.1% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Unión La Calera to score 3+ 14.4% 14.3% 21.0% 0.68× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
Unión La Calera leading at HT 29.2% 25.6% — — 3.91
Huachipato leading at HT 27.2% 25.5% — — 3.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato -1: 1 60.5% 62.5% — — 1.60
Huachipato -1: X 22.7% 23.5% — — 4.25
Huachipato -1: 2 16.8% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:1) 61.5% 61.4% 51.0% 1.21× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 22.3% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Unión La Calera (0:1) 16.2% 17.8% 23.2% 0.77× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:2) 83.8% 83.0% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.5% 11.0% 12.9% 0.85× 9.11
Unión La Calera (0:2) 5.6% 7.7% 10.5% 0.73× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:3) 94.4% 92.7% 89.5% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.0% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 41.96
Unión La Calera (0:3) 1.6% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:4) 98.4% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.83
Unión La Calera (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.93
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (1:0) 60.5% 65.2% 70.0% 0.93× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 22.7% 21.7% 20.0% 1.08× 4.61
Huachipato (1:0) 16.8% 17.1% 10.2% 1.67× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera (2:0) 83.2% 84.6% 89.8% 0.94× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.9% 10.3% 6.3% 1.62× 9.73
Huachipato (2:0) 6.0% 6.4% 4.1% 1.54× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.4% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 28.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 22.3% 24.5% — — 4.09
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to concede 73.5% 73.0% 68.5% 1.07× 1.37
Unión La Calera clean sheet 26.5% 27.0% 31.5% 0.86× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 1st half 58.8% 62.4% — — 1.60
Unión La Calera to concede in 1st half 41.2% 37.6% — — 2.66
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera to concede in 2nd half 54.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 2nd half 45.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera over 2.5 corners 91.3% 89.2% — — 1.12
Unión La Calera over 3.5 corners 82.6% 81.0% — — 1.24
Unión La Calera over 4.5 corners 71.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Unión La Calera over 5.5 corners 59.1% 57.5% — — 1.74
Unión La Calera under 6.5 corners 53.2% 52.6% — — 1.90
Unión La Calera over 6.5 corners 46.8% 47.4% — — 2.11
Unión La Calera under 5.5 corners 40.9% 42.5% — — 2.35
Unión La Calera under 4.5 corners 28.5% 28.1% — — 3.56
Unión La Calera under 3.5 corners 17.4% 19.0% — — 5.26
Unión La Calera under 2.5 corners 8.7% 10.8% — — 9.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 3.5 goals 95.6% 96.4% 91.0% 1.06× 1.04
Unión La Calera under 2.5 goals 85.6% 87.3% 79.0% 1.10× 1.15
Unión La Calera over 0.5 goals 72.9% 74.2% 78.5% 0.95× 1.35
Unión La Calera under 1.5 goals 62.4% 63.6% 52.9% 1.20× 1.57
Unión La Calera over 1.5 goals 37.6% 36.4% 47.1% 0.77× 2.75
Unión La Calera under 0.5 goals 27.1% 25.8% 21.5% 1.20× 3.88
Unión La Calera over 2.5 goals 14.4% 12.7% 21.0% 0.61× 7.85
Unión La Calera over 3.5 goals 4.4% 3.6% 9.0% 0.40× 27.49
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 1st half 89.0% 90.2% — — 1.11
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 1st half 57.0% 56.3% — — 1.78
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 1st half 43.0% 43.7% — — 2.29
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 1st half 11.0% 9.8% — — 10.16
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera scores equally in both 39.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Unión La Calera scores more in 2nd half 35.8% 38.1% — — 2.63
Unión La Calera scores more in 1st half 24.6% 21.1% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (home no bet) 64.2% 60.1% 58.6% 1.03× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 35.8% 39.9% 41.4% 0.96× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera even goals 53.7% 50.8% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Unión La Calera odd goals 46.3% 49.2% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.2% 33.5% — — 2.99
HT 1-0 19.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 18.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 9.6% 6.9% — — 14.51
HT 2-0 5.3% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 0-2 4.7% 2.4% — — 42.11
Any other HT score 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 2-1 2.8% 2.4% — — 42.24
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.4% — — 42.37
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 21.8% 21.6% — — 4.63
Huachipato at HT / Huachipato at FT 20.9% 21.6% — — 4.64
Draw at HT / Huachipato at FT 16.1% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 14.7% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Unión La Calera at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
Huachipato at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
Unión La Calera at HT / Huachipato at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.95
Huachipato at HT / Unión La Calera at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.96
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to score last 47.8% 46.4% — — 2.16
Unión La Calera to score last 47.1% 46.3% — — 2.16
No goal scored 5.1% 7.5% — — 13.34
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.9% 92.6% — — 1.08
Huachipato to lead by 1 at any time 54.9% 50.7% — — 1.97
Unión La Calera to lead by 1 at any time 54.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.4% 39.3% — — 2.55
Huachipato to lead by 2 at any time 22.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Unión La Calera to lead by 2 at any time 22.0% 19.5% — — 5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.9% 10.6% — — 9.39
Huachipato to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.7% — — 15.03
Unión La Calera to lead by 3 at any time 7.3% 6.6% — — 15.05
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera most corners 67.0% 64.5% — — 1.55
Huachipato most corners 24.2% 25.9% — — 3.86
Corners level 8.8% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.8% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.2% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
2-6 goals 70.0% 72.3% 70.0% 1.03× 1.38
1-3 goals 67.8% 68.8% 66.3% 1.04× 1.45
2-5 goals 66.7% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
2-4 goals 59.1% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-6 goals 47.2% 48.4% 50.7% 0.95× 2.06
1-2 goals 45.9% 48.4% 42.4% 1.14× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-5 goals 43.9% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.3% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 25.3% 30.2% 26.8% 1.13× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.0% 24.4% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.9% 14.8% 12.0% 1.24× 6.76
7+ goals 1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 1.05× 39.19
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato never behind 40.9% 48.6% — — 2.06
Unión La Calera never behind 40.0% 48.6% — — 2.06
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.9% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.1% 48.2% — — 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.9% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.1% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.9% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 94.8% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.2% 87.6% 85.9% 1.02× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 72.8% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 71.8% 72.5% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 51.0% 52.5% 47.1% 1.12× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 49.0% 47.5% 52.9% 0.90× 2.11
Under 1.5 goals 28.2% 27.5% 27.8% 0.99× 3.63
Over 3.5 goals 27.2% 27.5% 29.0% 0.95× 3.63
Over 4.5 goals 12.8% 12.4% 14.1% 0.88× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 5.1% 7.7% 4.9% 1.58× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.2% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.1% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.4% 92.4% 91.4% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 85.1% 86.7% 83.4% 1.04× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 65.2% 67.5% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.5% 61.9% 65.6% 0.94× 1.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.5% 38.1% 34.4% 1.11× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 34.8% 32.5% 38.1% 0.85× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 14.9% 13.3% 16.6% 0.80× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.6% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.64
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.2% 92.6% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 70.5% 71.3% — — 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.8% 68.6% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.4% — — 3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.5% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.8% 7.4% — — 13.59
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.3% 79.6% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.1% 55.2% — — 1.81
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.9% 44.8% — — 2.23
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.7% 20.4% — — 4.91
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.2% 20.4% — — 4.91
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to score in both halves 77.4% 78.4% — — 1.28
Huachipato not to score in both halves 77.4% 78.4% — — 1.28
Huachipato to score in both halves 22.6% 21.6% — — 4.64
Unión La Calera to score in both halves 22.6% 21.6% — — 4.64
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.5% 53.8% 52.0% 1.04× 1.86
Only Huachipato scores 22.0% 22.2% 16.8% 1.32× 4.50
Only Unión La Calera scores 21.4% 22.2% 26.8% 0.83× 4.50
Neither team scores 5.1% 7.1% 4.9% 1.46× 14.02
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 23.1% 22.6% 23.2% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 22.8% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 22.6% 24.1% 0.94× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 14.4% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.25
Exactly 5 goals 7.6% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.1% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.15
6 or more goals 5.2% 7.6% 8.0% 0.95× 13.15
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 37.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
No goals in 1st half 33.2% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 19.7% 15.7% — — 6.36
3+ goals in 1st half 9.8% 7.4% — — 13.59
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.9% 44.9% — — 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 34.4% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 20.7% 22.8% — — 4.39
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win both halves 91.2% 94.1% — — 1.06
Huachipato not to win both halves 91.0% 94.1% — — 1.06
Huachipato to win both halves 9.0% 5.9% — — 17.01
Unión La Calera to win both halves 8.8% 5.9% — — 17.02
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to win either half 52.4% 54.3% — — 1.84
Unión La Calera to win either half 51.6% 54.3% — — 1.84
Unión La Calera to win neither half 48.4% 45.7% — — 2.19
Huachipato to win neither half 47.6% 45.7% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión La Calera not to win to nil 78.6% 78.1% 73.2% 1.07× 1.28
Huachipato not to win to nil 78.0% 78.1% 83.2% 0.94× 1.28
Huachipato to win to nil 22.0% 21.9% 16.8% 1.30× 4.57
Unión La Calera to win to nil 21.4% 21.9% 26.8% 0.81× 4.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato by 1 22.7% 24.1% 20.0% 1.21× 4.15
Unión La Calera by 1 22.3% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Draw 22.0% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Huachipato by 2 10.9% 11.8% 6.3% 1.85× 8.51
Unión La Calera by 2 10.5% 11.8% 12.9% 0.91× 8.51
Huachipato by 3+ 6.0% 7.2% 4.1% 1.73× 13.92
Unión La Calera by 3+ 5.6% 7.2% 10.5% 0.69× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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