Unión La Calera v Universidad de Concepción — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Unión La Calera

20:00 UTC

Universidad de Concepción

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 801h before kick-off

Unión La Calera win

45.4%

model 44.9%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.0%

Universidad de Concepción win

30.8%

model 31.1%

452431

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 15.6%
0-1 12.6%
1-1 10.9%
2-0 8.4%
0-0 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	38.9%	Under 2.5	61.1%
BTTS yes	42.6%	BTTS no	57.4%
Unión La Calera 1+	71.6%	Unión La Calera 2+	35.9%
Universidad de Concepción 1+	62.5%	Universidad de Concepción 2+	25.8%

Expected goals 1.26 – 0.98. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 42%

52.3% fair odds 1.91

strong signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Universidad de Concepción not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Unión La Calera.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Unión La Calera have an estimated 45.4% win probability, against 30.8% for Universidad de Concepción and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.26 for Unión La Calera and 0.98 for Universidad de Concepción.

Why Unión La Calera

Nothing in the data singles out Unión La Calera.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. A combined 2.24 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Universidad de Concepción can win

Universidad de Concepción carry the stronger rating, 1417 Elo against 1325.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Unión La Calera, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Universidad de Concepción, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Unión La Calera: 47% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Universidad de Concepción: 47% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Unión La Calera are the model's most likely outcome at 45.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 15.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	452431	1.26–0.98	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	452629	1.13–0.83	1-0 18%	31%	36%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera to win	44.7%	43.0%	49.0%	0.88×	2.33
Universidad de Concepción to win	29.0%	27.9%	30.0%	0.93×	3.58
Draw	26.3%	27.9%	21.2%	1.31×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera & not both score	31.7%	29.6%	26.8%	1.10×	3.38
Universidad de Concepción & not both score	20.5%	21.8%	16.8%	1.29×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	16.6%	0.80×	7.54
Unión La Calera & both teams score	13.0%	13.3%	22.4%	0.59×	7.54
Draw & not both score	11.9%	13.3%	4.9%	2.72×	7.54
Universidad de Concepción & both teams score	8.5%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera & under 3.5	37.9%	34.9%	34.1%	1.02×	2.87
Unión La Calera & under 2.5	27.1%	26.1%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Unión La Calera & over 1.5	26.6%	26.1%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Universidad de Concepción & under 3.5	25.6%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	22.9%	21.6%	13.9%	1.55×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	22.9%	21.6%	13.9%	1.55×	4.63
Universidad de Concepción & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	13.7%	1.32×	5.55
Unión La Calera & under 1.5	18.1%	18.0%	13.2%	1.37×	5.56
Unión La Calera & over 2.5	17.6%	18.0%	29.3%	0.62×	5.56
Universidad de Concepción & over 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.4%	12.8%	16.6%	0.77×	7.79
Universidad de Concepción & under 1.5	13.9%	12.8%	10.2%	1.25×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	11.9%	12.8%	4.9%	2.63×	7.79
Universidad de Concepción & over 2.5	10.2%	12.8%	16.6%	0.77×	7.79
Unión La Calera & over 3.5	6.7%	7.9%	15.1%	0.52×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	3.4%	4.8%	7.6%	0.64×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.4%	4.8%	7.6%	0.64×	20.82
Universidad de Concepción & over 3.5	3.4%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (1UP)	55.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Universidad de Concepción (1UP)	41.0%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (2UP)	44.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Universidad de Concepción (2UP)	29.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.5%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Unión La Calera to win 2nd half	33.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Universidad de Concepción to win 2nd half	24.6%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 in 2nd half	91.0%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 in 2nd half	60.7%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 in 2nd half	39.3%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.0%	8.4%	—	—	11.89

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 2nd half	86.4%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 2nd half	52.5%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 2nd half	47.5%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 2nd half	13.6%	11.3%	—	—	8.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (+2.5)	94.3%	92.1%	89.5%	1.03×	1.09
Universidad de Concepción (+1.5)	82.2%	82.6%	76.8%	1.07×	1.21
Unión La Calera (+0.5)	71.0%	73.6%	70.0%	1.05×	1.36
Universidad de Concepción (+0.5)	55.3%	57.0%	51.0%	1.12×	1.75
Unión La Calera (-0.5)	44.7%	43.0%	49.0%	0.88×	2.33
Universidad de Concepción (-0.5)	29.0%	26.4%	30.0%	0.88×	3.80
Unión La Calera (-1.5)	17.8%	17.4%	23.2%	0.75×	5.74
Unión La Calera (-2.5)	5.7%	7.9%	10.5%	0.75×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción to concede	67.7%	72.3%	78.5%	0.92×	1.38
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet	32.3%	27.7%	21.5%	1.29×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet in 1st half	61.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Universidad de Concepción to concede in 1st half	38.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet in 2nd half	52.5%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Universidad de Concepción to concede in 2nd half	47.5%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción over 2.5 corners	79.2%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Universidad de Concepción under 6.5 corners	77.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Universidad de Concepción under 5.5 corners	65.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Universidad de Concepción over 3.5 corners	64.0%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Universidad de Concepción under 4.5 corners	51.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Universidad de Concepción over 4.5 corners	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Universidad de Concepción under 3.5 corners	36.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Universidad de Concepción over 5.5 corners	34.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Universidad de Concepción over 6.5 corners	22.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
Universidad de Concepción under 2.5 corners	20.8%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 3.5 goals	99.0%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Universidad de Concepción under 2.5 goals	94.8%	92.4%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 goals	79.8%	76.3%	68.5%	1.11×	1.31
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 goals	56.4%	59.4%	68.5%	0.87×	1.68
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 goals	43.6%	40.6%	31.5%	1.29×	2.46
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 goals	20.2%	23.7%	31.5%	0.75×	4.21
Universidad de Concepción over 2.5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	11.7%	0.65×	13.09
Universidad de Concepción over 3.5 goals	1.0%	2.5%	2.9%	0.86×	39.92

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 in 1st half	95.6%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 in 1st half	71.7%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 in 1st half	28.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 in 1st half	4.4%	4.0%	—	—	24.97

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción scores equally in both	51.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Universidad de Concepción scores more in 2nd half	30.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Universidad de Concepción scores more in 1st half	18.6%	18.1%	—	—	5.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (away no bet)	63.0%	61.9%	69.8%	0.89×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	37.0%	38.1%	30.2%	1.26×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción even goals	59.5%	56.9%	53.7%	1.06×	1.76
Universidad de Concepción odd goals	40.5%	43.1%	46.3%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.7%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.3%	8.1%	—	—	12.41

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	56.0%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Not both halves under 1.5	44.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Unión La Calera to score 2+ in a row	26.3%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Universidad de Concepción to score 2+ in a row	15.7%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Unión La Calera to score 3+ in a row	7.6%	5.5%	—	—	18.17
Universidad de Concepción to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera corners (+3.5)	91.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Unión La Calera corners (+2.5)	86.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Unión La Calera corners (+1.5)	80.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Universidad de Concepción corners (+3.5)	64.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Universidad de Concepción corners (+2.5)	55.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Unión La Calera corners (-1.5)	54.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Universidad de Concepción corners (+1.5)	45.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Unión La Calera corners (-2.5)	44.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Unión La Calera corners (-3.5)	35.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Universidad de Concepción corners (-1.5)	19.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Universidad de Concepción corners (-2.5)	13.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Universidad de Concepción corners (-3.5)	9.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
0-8 corners	25.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	82.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	61.9%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	38.1%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 9.5 corners	34.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 8.5 corners	25.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	17.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	18.1%	13.8%	13.2%	1.05×	7.23
0-1	13.9%	11.5%	10.2%	1.12×	8.71
0-0	11.9%	11.5%	4.9%	2.35×	8.71
1-1	11.0%	11.5%	9.3%	1.24×	8.72
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
2-1	7.5%	7.4%	10.7%	0.69×	13.51
1-2	5.5%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.29
0-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.34×	58.32
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	6.1%	0.28×	58.30
2-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.2%	0.78×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
3-1	2.8%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.30
3-2	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.31
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.31
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	1.0%	1.76×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.03×	58.32
Any other score	0.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (2nd half DNB)	58.0%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Universidad de Concepción (2nd half DNB)	42.0%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera leading at HT (DNB)	61.1%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Universidad de Concepción leading at HT (DNB)	38.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera or Universidad de Concepción (12)	73.7%	72.1%	78.8%	0.92×	1.39
Unión La Calera or draw (1X)	71.0%	72.1%	70.0%	1.03×	1.39
Universidad de Concepción or draw (X2)	55.3%	57.0%	51.0%	1.12×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera or draw at HT	80.9%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Universidad de Concepción or draw at HT	69.9%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Unión La Calera or Universidad de Concepción at HT	49.2%	51.7%	—	—	1.94

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera or draw (1UP)	71.0%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Universidad de Concepción or draw (1UP)	55.3%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera or draw in 2nd half	75.4%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
Universidad de Concepción or draw in 2nd half	66.1%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Unión La Calera or Universidad de Concepción in 2nd half	58.5%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	73.5%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Neither half drawn	26.5%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (DNB)	60.6%	62.6%	62.0%	1.01×	1.60
Universidad de Concepción (DNB)	39.4%	37.4%	38.0%	0.98×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera to score first	50.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Universidad de Concepción to score first	37.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	11.9%	9.7%	—	—	10.31

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	64.0%	56.7%	48.0%	1.18×	1.77
Both teams to score	36.0%	43.3%	52.0%	0.83×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	57.8%	47.5%	38.0%	1.25×	2.11
Both score & over 2.5	25.0%	27.9%	42.9%	0.65×	3.58
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	12.4%	9.3%	1.33×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	6.3%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.7%	89.0%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.3%	11.0%	15.4%	0.71×	9.11

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.1%	73.3%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.9%	26.7%	—	—	3.75

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.7%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Both score 2nd half only	15.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Both score 1st half only	8.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.68
Both score in both halves	2.0%	4.8%	—	—	20.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	10.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.0%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
A goal in each half	37.0%	40.6%	—	—	2.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	43.9%	42.2%	27.8%	1.52×	2.37
2-3 goals	42.5%	42.2%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	13.2%	16.9%	26.8%	0.63×	5.90
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	2.4%	0.75×	54.52

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 0	43.6%	37.3%	31.5%	1.19×	2.68
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 1	36.2%	35.9%	37.3%	0.96×	2.78
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 2	15.0%	19.5%	20.0%	0.98×	5.12
Universidad de Concepción to score 3+	5.2%	8.5%	11.7%	0.73×	11.73

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.5%	31.7%	1.12×	2.81
Unión La Calera to score exactly 0	32.3%	32.6%	21.5%	1.52×	3.07
Unión La Calera to score exactly 2	20.6%	23.3%	26.3%	0.88×	4.30
Unión La Calera to score 3+	10.5%	14.3%	21.0%	0.68×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.8%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Unión La Calera leading at HT	30.1%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
Universidad de Concepción leading at HT	19.1%	16.0%	—	—	6.24

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera -1: 2	55.3%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Unión La Calera -1: X	26.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Unión La Calera -1: 1	17.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (0:1)	55.3%	55.8%	51.0%	1.09×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	26.8%	27.0%	26.1%	1.04×	3.70
Unión La Calera (0:1)	17.8%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (0:2)	82.2%	83.0%	76.8%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.1%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.10
Unión La Calera (0:2)	5.7%	7.7%	10.5%	0.73×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (0:3)	94.3%	92.7%	89.5%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.2%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.95
Unión La Calera (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	94.6%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	4.1%	0.29×	81.84
Unión La Calera (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.94

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (1:0)	71.0%	72.4%	70.0%	1.03×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	20.4%	21.7%	20.0%	1.08×	4.62
Universidad de Concepción (1:0)	8.7%	6.9%	10.2%	0.67×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera (2:0)	91.3%	94.0%	89.8%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.6%	6.4%	6.3%	1.01×	15.67
Universidad de Concepción (2:0)	2.1%	2.3%	4.1%	0.55×	43.80

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.0%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera to concede	56.4%	60.6%	68.5%	0.88×	1.65
Unión La Calera clean sheet	43.6%	39.4%	31.5%	1.25×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 1st half	71.7%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Unión La Calera to concede in 1st half	28.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera clean sheet in 2nd half	60.7%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Unión La Calera to concede in 2nd half	39.3%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera over 2.5 corners	92.0%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Unión La Calera over 3.5 corners	83.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Unión La Calera over 4.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Unión La Calera over 5.5 corners	61.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Unión La Calera under 6.5 corners	51.0%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Unión La Calera over 6.5 corners	49.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Unión La Calera under 5.5 corners	38.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Unión La Calera under 4.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Unión La Calera under 3.5 corners	16.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Unión La Calera under 2.5 corners	8.0%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera under 3.5 goals	97.2%	96.4%	91.0%	1.06×	1.04
Unión La Calera under 2.5 goals	89.5%	87.3%	79.0%	1.10×	1.15
Unión La Calera under 1.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	52.9%	1.28×	1.47
Unión La Calera over 0.5 goals	67.7%	67.9%	78.5%	0.87×	1.47
Unión La Calera under 0.5 goals	32.3%	32.1%	21.5%	1.49×	3.12
Unión La Calera over 1.5 goals	31.2%	32.1%	47.1%	0.68×	3.12
Unión La Calera over 2.5 goals	10.5%	12.7%	21.0%	0.61×	7.86
Unión La Calera over 3.5 goals	2.8%	3.6%	9.0%	0.40×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera under 1.5 in 1st half	91.4%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Unión La Calera under 0.5 in 1st half	61.5%	64.3%	—	—	1.56
Unión La Calera over 0.5 in 1st half	38.5%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
Unión La Calera over 1.5 in 1st half	8.6%	5.3%	—	—	18.77

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera scores equally in both	43.3%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Unión La Calera scores more in 2nd half	33.5%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Unión La Calera scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción (home no bet)	52.5%	51.4%	58.6%	0.88×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.5%	48.6%	41.4%	1.17×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera even goals	55.2%	55.3%	54.4%	1.02×	1.81
Unión La Calera odd goals	44.8%	44.7%	45.6%	0.98×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	43.8%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
HT 1-0	21.8%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	15.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
HT 1-1	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 2-0	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.4%	—	—	42.26
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
Any other HT score	1.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.40

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera at HT / Unión La Calera at FT	24.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Unión La Calera at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Universidad de Concepción at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT	13.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Unión La Calera at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Universidad de Concepción at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Universidad de Concepción at HT / Unión La Calera at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.98
Unión La Calera at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT	1.3%	3.4%	—	—	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera to score last	50.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Universidad de Concepción to score last	37.5%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	11.9%	9.1%	—	—	10.99

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.1%	91.4%	—	—	1.09
Unión La Calera to lead by 1 at any time	55.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 1 at any time	41.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.4%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Unión La Calera to lead by 2 at any time	21.7%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 2 at any time	11.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.45
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Unión La Calera to lead by 3 at any time	6.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.07
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 3 at any time	2.7%	1.6%	—	—	62.66

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera most corners	64.0%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Universidad de Concepción most corners	27.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	8.8%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.6%	87.4%	87.3%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	83.2%	83.4%	81.2%	1.03×	1.20
1-3 goals	74.6%	72.3%	66.3%	1.09×	1.38
1-2 goals	56.9%	59.1%	42.4%	1.39×	1.69
2-6 goals	55.7%	59.1%	70.0%	0.84×	1.69
2-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	64.4%	0.83×	1.88
2-4 goals	51.2%	53.1%	58.3%	0.91×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.5%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.29
3-6 goals	30.8%	35.2%	50.7%	0.69×	2.84
3-5 goals	29.7%	30.2%	45.1%	0.67×	3.31
3-4 goals	26.3%	30.2%	39.0%	0.77×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.2%	14.8%	26.8%	0.55×	6.75
4-5 goals	12.1%	14.8%	21.2%	0.70×	6.76
5-6 goals	4.5%	2.6%	12.0%	0.21×	39.07
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	2.4%	1.04×	39.25

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera never behind	47.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Universidad de Concepción never behind	32.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	46.5%	50.9%	44.9%	1.13×	1.97
Odd number of goals	53.5%	49.1%	55.1%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.5%	95.4%	92.0%	1.04×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	85.9%	1.11×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	88.1%	87.6%	95.1%	0.92×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	71.0%	1.23×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	68.8%	66.3%	47.1%	1.41×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	56.1%	58.6%	72.2%	0.81×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	43.9%	41.4%	27.8%	1.49×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	31.2%	33.7%	52.9%	0.64×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	29.0%	0.43×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	11.9%	12.4%	4.9%	2.54×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	14.1%	0.32×	21.80
Over 5.5 goals	1.5%	4.6%	8.0%	0.57×	21.85

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.2%	91.4%	1.06×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.6%	92.4%	83.4%	1.11×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.5%	81.1%	61.9%	1.31×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.4%	55.8%	34.4%	1.62×	1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.6%	44.2%	65.6%	0.67×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.5%	18.9%	38.1%	0.50×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.4%	7.6%	16.6%	0.46×	13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.8%	8.6%	0.33×	35.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	2.6%	1.08×	35.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.0%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.6%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.4%	14.4%	—	—	6.95
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.2%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.8%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.2%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.8%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to score in both halves	88.9%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Unión La Calera not to score in both halves	81.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Unión La Calera to score in both halves	18.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Universidad de Concepción to score in both halves	11.1%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	36.0%	39.9%	52.0%	0.77×	2.51
Only Unión La Calera scores	31.7%	33.3%	26.8%	1.24×	3.01
Only Universidad de Concepción scores	20.5%	22.2%	16.8%	1.32×	4.50
Neither team scores	11.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.26×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	32.1%	25.4%	23.2%	1.10×	3.93
Exactly 2 goals	24.8%	22.6%	19.5%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	17.7%	17.5%	24.1%	0.72×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.9%	12.1%	4.9%	2.48×	8.26
Exactly 4 goals	8.7%	7.6%	15.1%	0.50×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.4%	4.5%	6.3%	0.71×	22.35
6 or more goals	1.5%	4.5%	8.0%	0.56×	22.38

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	43.8%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
1 goal in 1st half	36.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	14.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
3+ goals in 1st half	5.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.25

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	38.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.50
No goals in 2nd half	31.2%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to win both halves	95.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Unión La Calera not to win both halves	90.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Unión La Calera to win both halves	9.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.95
Universidad de Concepción to win both halves	4.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.40

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción to win neither half	60.7%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Unión La Calera to win either half	54.2%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Unión La Calera to win neither half	45.9%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Universidad de Concepción to win either half	39.3%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to win to nil	79.5%	78.2%	83.2%	0.94×	1.28
Unión La Calera not to win to nil	68.3%	69.7%	73.2%	0.95×	1.44
Unión La Calera to win to nil	31.7%	30.3%	26.8%	1.13×	3.30
Universidad de Concepción to win to nil	20.5%	21.9%	16.8%	1.30×	4.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión La Calera by 1	26.8%	27.9%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
Draw	26.3%	27.9%	21.2%	1.31×	3.59
Universidad de Concepción by 1	20.4%	24.1%	20.0%	1.21×	4.15
Unión La Calera by 2	12.1%	11.8%	12.9%	0.91×	8.51
Universidad de Concepción by 2	6.6%	7.2%	6.3%	1.13×	13.91
Unión La Calera by 3+	5.7%	7.2%	10.5%	0.69×	13.92
Universidad de Concepción by 3+	2.1%	2.7%	4.1%	0.65×	36.91