Unión (Santa Fe) v Vélez Sarsfield — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Unión (Santa Fe)

20:00 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 297h before kick-off

Unión (Santa Fe) win

43.2%

model 42.3%

Draw

27.4%

model 27.3%

Vélez Sarsfield win

29.4%

model 30.4%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.0%
1-0 10.1%
2-1 8.9%
0-1 8.2%
0-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.9%	Under 2.5	52.1%
BTTS yes	52.8%	BTTS no	47.2%
Unión (Santa Fe) 1+	75.9%	Unión (Santa Fe) 2+	41.6%
Vélez Sarsfield 1+	68.8%	Vélez Sarsfield 2+	32.5%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 41%

53.4% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 83%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Unión (Santa Fe) have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.4% for Vélez Sarsfield and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Unión (Santa Fe) and 1.17 for Vélez Sarsfield.

Why Unión (Santa Fe)

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Vélez Sarsfield can win

Vélez Sarsfield carry the stronger rating, 1576 Elo against 1527.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Unión (Santa Fe), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vélez Sarsfield, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Unión (Santa Fe): 51% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vélez Sarsfield: 52% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Unión (Santa Fe) are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.0%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422730	1.42–1.17	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392734	1.41–1.29	1-1 13%	51%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to win	39.3%	36.4%	41.8%	0.87×	2.75
Vélez Sarsfield to win	33.8%	30.4%	27.6%	1.10×	3.29
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.58

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) & not both score	20.3%	21.8%	27.7%	0.79×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.56
Unión (Santa Fe) & both teams score	19.0%	18.0%	14.3%	1.26×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & not both score	17.2%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.57
Vélez Sarsfield & both teams score	16.6%	18.0%	10.6%	1.69×	5.57
Draw & not both score	7.3%	8.3%	14.8%	0.56×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 1.5	30.4%	30.7%	27.8%	1.11×	3.25
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 3.5	27.4%	26.1%	34.8%	0.75×	3.84
Vélez Sarsfield & over 1.5	25.7%	26.1%	17.4%	1.49×	3.84
Vélez Sarsfield & under 3.5	24.0%	21.6%	23.5%	0.92×	4.63
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 2.5	23.7%	21.6%	18.4%	1.18×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	20.1%	21.6%	28.2%	0.77×	4.63
Vélez Sarsfield & over 2.5	20.1%	21.6%	13.1%	1.65×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	16.0%	1.13×	5.55
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	14.6%	0.88×	7.79
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 3.5	11.9%	12.8%	7.2%	1.79×	7.79
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	14.1%	0.56×	12.63
Vélez Sarsfield & over 3.5	9.8%	7.9%	4.2%	1.88×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.3%	7.9%	14.8%	0.53×	12.63
Vélez Sarsfield & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	2.6%	3.02×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	2.6%	3.02×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (1UP)	56.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Vélez Sarsfield (1UP)	51.2%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (2UP)	39.3%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Vélez Sarsfield (2UP)	33.8%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	36.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Unión (Santa Fe) to win 2nd half	32.8%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Vélez Sarsfield to win 2nd half	31.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.8%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 2nd half	53.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 2nd half	46.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 2nd half	18.2%	15.9%	—	—	6.28

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Unión (Santa Fe) over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Unión (Santa Fe) under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Unión (Santa Fe) over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (+2.5)	93.1%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Vélez Sarsfield (+1.5)	81.3%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
Unión (Santa Fe) (+0.5)	66.2%	68.7%	72.4%	0.95×	1.46
Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)	60.7%	62.9%	58.2%	1.08×	1.59
Unión (Santa Fe) (-0.5)	39.3%	37.1%	41.8%	0.89×	2.70
Vélez Sarsfield (-0.5)	33.8%	31.3%	27.6%	1.14×	3.19
Unión (Santa Fe) (-1.5)	18.7%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
Unión (Santa Fe) (-2.5)	6.9%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to concede	75.5%	78.7%	68.2%	1.15×	1.27
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	24.5%	21.3%	31.8%	0.67×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 1st half	54.6%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 1st half	45.4%	49.1%	—	—	2.04

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 2nd half	55.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 2nd half	44.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 6.5 corners	87.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Vélez Sarsfield under 5.5 corners	78.3%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners	69.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Vélez Sarsfield under 4.5 corners	65.2%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 corners	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 corners	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vélez Sarsfield over 4.5 corners	34.8%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 corners	30.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Vélez Sarsfield over 5.5 corners	21.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Vélez Sarsfield over 6.5 corners	12.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 goals	95.8%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 goals	86.0%	87.8%	93.4%	0.94×	1.14
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 goals	72.4%	71.8%	57.6%	1.25×	1.39
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 goals	63.1%	63.2%	78.2%	0.81×	1.58
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 goals	36.9%	36.8%	21.8%	1.69×	2.72
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 goals	27.6%	28.2%	42.4%	0.66×	3.55
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 goals	14.0%	12.2%	6.6%	1.85×	8.19
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 goals	4.2%	2.5%	1.1%	2.21×	39.76

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 1st half	59.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 1st half	40.3%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	6.1%	—	—	16.29

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield scores equally in both	39.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 2nd half	38.1%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 1st half	22.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (away no bet)	59.4%	57.4%	57.7%	0.99×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	40.6%	42.6%	42.3%	1.01×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield even goals	53.8%	52.6%	58.4%	0.90×	1.90
Vélez Sarsfield odd goals	46.2%	47.4%	41.6%	1.14×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	85.6%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	14.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.18

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	54.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 2+ in a row	32.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Vélez Sarsfield to score 2+ in a row	28.5%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.18
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+ in a row	8.4%	5.5%	—	—	18.11

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+3.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+2.5)	87.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+1.5)	80.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+3.5)	71.3%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+2.5)	61.2%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+1.5)	50.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-1.5)	50.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-2.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-3.5)	28.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-1.5)	19.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-2.5)	12.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-3.5)	7.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	44.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	25.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	74.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	55.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	44.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	25.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	18.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.8%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
1-0	8.9%	7.4%	14.1%	0.52×	13.51
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-0	7.3%	7.4%	14.8%	0.50×	13.51
0-1	8.1%	7.4%	10.3%	0.72×	13.51
1-2	7.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.05×	13.51
2-0	6.7%	7.4%	9.6%	0.77×	13.51
0-2	5.6%	7.4%	4.4%	1.66×	13.51
2-2	5.6%	7.4%	2.3%	3.25×	13.51
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.31
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.31
1-3	3.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.30
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
2-3	2.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.31
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-1	4.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.30
3-2	2.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.30
3-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	2.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (2nd half DNB)	51.3%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Vélez Sarsfield (2nd half DNB)	48.7%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) leading at HT (DNB)	55.2%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT (DNB)	44.8%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or Vélez Sarsfield (12)	73.1%	72.1%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw (1X)	66.2%	69.6%	72.4%	0.96×	1.44
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (X2)	60.7%	63.6%	58.2%	1.09×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw at HT	74.8%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Vélez Sarsfield or draw at HT	69.0%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Unión (Santa Fe) or Vélez Sarsfield at HT	56.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw (1UP)	66.2%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1UP)	60.7%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw in 2nd half	68.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Vélez Sarsfield or draw in 2nd half	67.2%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Unión (Santa Fe) or Vélez Sarsfield in 2nd half	64.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	63.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	36.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (DNB)	53.8%	50.9%	60.3%	0.85×	1.96
Vélez Sarsfield (DNB)	46.3%	49.1%	39.7%	1.23×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score first	48.4%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Vélez Sarsfield to score first	44.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	7.3%	7.6%	—	—	13.22

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.3%	55.0%	40.6%	1.35×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.7%	45.0%	59.4%	0.76×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.5%	41.6%	27.3%	1.53×	2.41
Not both score & under 2.5	36.7%	38.4%	52.8%	0.73×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.8%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.1%	8.3%	6.7%	1.23×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.8%	82.7%	94.1%	0.88×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	15.2%	17.3%	5.9%	2.92×	5.77

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.1%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	24.5%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	13.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.84

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.6%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.4%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	53.7%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
A half without a goal	46.3%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.2%	47.3%	1.00×	2.12
4-6 goals	26.5%	26.6%	13.5%	1.98×	3.76
0-1 goals	24.4%	22.9%	39.0%	0.59×	4.36
7+ goals	2.0%	1.8%	0.5%	4.03×	54.36

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 1	35.5%	35.9%	35.9%	1.00×	2.79
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 0	27.6%	27.5%	42.4%	0.65×	3.64
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 2	22.9%	22.3%	15.3%	1.46×	4.49
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+	14.0%	12.9%	6.6%	1.95×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 1	34.4%	32.6%	36.5%	0.89×	3.07
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 0	24.5%	23.3%	31.8%	0.73×	4.29
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.29
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 3+	16.8%	18.8%	10.1%	1.85×	5.32

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Unión (Santa Fe) leading at HT	31.0%	32.7%	—	—	3.05
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT	25.2%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: 2	60.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: 1	18.7%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:1)	60.7%	61.4%	58.2%	1.06×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.6%	24.2%	24.3%	1.00×	4.13
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:2)	81.3%	82.9%	82.3%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.8%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:2)	6.9%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:3)	93.1%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.93
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.05

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (0:4)	97.9%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.3%	0.97×	81.79
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.91

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (1:0)	66.2%	70.1%	72.4%	0.97×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.85
Vélez Sarsfield (1:0)	15.0%	17.1%	9.1%	1.87×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (2:0)	85.0%	84.6%	90.9%	0.93×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.9%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.63
Vélez Sarsfield (2:0)	5.2%	6.4%	3.0%	2.15×	15.68

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	25.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to concede	72.4%	73.0%	57.6%	1.27×	1.37
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet	27.6%	27.0%	42.4%	0.64×	3.70

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet in 1st half	59.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Unión (Santa Fe) to concede in 1st half	40.3%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to concede in 2nd half	53.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet in 2nd half	46.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) over 2.5 corners	85.9%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Unión (Santa Fe) over 3.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Unión (Santa Fe) under 6.5 corners	67.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Unión (Santa Fe) over 4.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Unión (Santa Fe) under 5.5 corners	55.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Unión (Santa Fe) over 5.5 corners	44.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Unión (Santa Fe) under 4.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Unión (Santa Fe) over 6.5 corners	32.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Unión (Santa Fe) under 3.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Unión (Santa Fe) under 2.5 corners	14.1%	13.8%	—	—	7.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.2%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Unión (Santa Fe) under 2.5 goals	83.2%	82.2%	89.9%	0.91×	1.22
Unión (Santa Fe) over 0.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	68.2%	1.14×	1.29
Unión (Santa Fe) under 1.5 goals	58.9%	58.7%	68.2%	0.86×	1.70
Unión (Santa Fe) over 1.5 goals	41.1%	41.3%	31.8%	1.30×	2.42
Unión (Santa Fe) under 0.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	31.8%	0.70×	4.49
Unión (Santa Fe) over 2.5 goals	16.8%	17.8%	10.1%	1.75×	5.62
Unión (Santa Fe) over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.8%	2.9%	2.73×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Unión (Santa Fe) under 0.5 in 1st half	54.6%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Unión (Santa Fe) over 0.5 in 1st half	45.4%	49.3%	—	—	2.03
Unión (Santa Fe) over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	9.9%	—	—	10.09

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) scores equally in both	37.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Unión (Santa Fe) scores more in 2nd half	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Unión (Santa Fe) scores more in 1st half	25.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (home no bet)	55.7%	56.3%	47.4%	1.19×	1.78
Draw (home no bet)	44.3%	43.7%	52.6%	0.83×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) even goals	53.0%	50.8%	55.6%	0.91×	1.97
Unión (Santa Fe) odd goals	47.0%	49.2%	44.4%	1.11×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.7%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
HT 1-0	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	16.7%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
HT 1-1	10.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 2-0	6.0%	6.9%	—	—	14.57
HT 0-2	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 2-1	3.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.22
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.25
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT	23.0%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	18.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	—	—	16.53
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.95
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score last	48.4%	46.4%	—	—	2.16
Vélez Sarsfield to score last	44.3%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	7.3%	7.6%	—	—	13.22

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.7%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 1 at any time	56.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 1 at any time	51.2%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	45.5%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 2 at any time	20.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	15.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 3 at any time	8.8%	6.7%	—	—	14.98
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.07

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) most corners	61.4%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Vélez Sarsfield most corners	28.1%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.0%	78.7%	79.9%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.6%	72.3%	60.7%	1.19×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.0%	68.8%	60.1%	1.15×	1.45
1-3 goals	64.2%	63.3%	71.5%	0.89×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.0%	63.3%	55.8%	1.14×	1.58
3-6 goals	48.5%	48.4%	33.5%	1.45×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.4%	47.3%	1.02×	2.06
3-5 goals	44.9%	43.6%	33.0%	1.32×	2.29
1-2 goals	42.1%	43.6%	51.4%	0.85×	2.29
3-4 goals	36.9%	39.2%	28.6%	1.37×	2.55
4-6 goals	26.5%	30.2%	13.5%	2.25×	3.31
4-5 goals	22.9%	24.5%	12.9%	1.90×	4.09
5-6 goals	11.6%	14.8%	5.0%	2.95×	6.76
7+ goals	2.0%	2.6%	0.5%	5.60×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) never behind	41.5%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
Vélez Sarsfield never behind	36.7%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.7%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.3%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.5%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.5%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.5%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	99.0%	0.93×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	85.2%	1.08×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	94.6%	0.93×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	77.3%	61.0%	1.27×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	71.5%	72.5%	86.2%	0.84×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	50.6%	52.5%	33.9%	1.55×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	49.4%	47.5%	66.1%	0.72×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	28.5%	27.5%	13.8%	2.00×	3.63
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	22.7%	39.0%	0.58×	4.40
Over 4.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	5.4%	2.31×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	14.8%	0.52×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	1.0%	7.53×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.9%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.9%	92.4%	98.9%	0.93×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	84.0%	81.1%	94.1%	0.86×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	67.5%	67.5%	46.5%	1.45×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	63.4%	61.9%	82.7%	0.75×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	36.6%	38.1%	17.3%	2.21×	2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	32.5%	32.5%	53.5%	0.61×	3.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	16.0%	18.9%	5.9%	3.23×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.1%	7.6%	1.1%	7.06×	13.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.1%	2.8%	0.5%	6.12×	35.63

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.0%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.7%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 1.5 in 1st half	31.0%	31.3%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.19

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.0%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	53.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	46.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.0%	20.4%	—	—	4.90
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.9%	20.4%	—	—	4.91

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield not to score in both halves	78.3%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Unión (Santa Fe) not to score in both halves	74.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Unión (Santa Fe) to score in both halves	25.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.84
Vélez Sarsfield to score in both halves	21.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.65

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.3%	58.5%	40.6%	1.44×	1.71
Only Unión (Santa Fe) scores	20.3%	22.2%	27.7%	0.80×	4.50
Only Vélez Sarsfield scores	17.2%	16.0%	17.1%	0.94×	6.24
Neither team scores	7.3%	7.1%	14.8%	0.48×	14.00

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.1%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	22.6%	20.2%	1.12×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	17.1%	17.5%	24.3%	0.72×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.9%	12.1%	8.6%	1.42×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	8.0%	7.6%	4.4%	1.71×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	7.3%	7.6%	14.8%	0.51×	13.14
6 or more goals	5.6%	7.6%	1.0%	7.41×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	32.7%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	20.6%	21.5%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	10.4%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	46.9%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
1 goal in 2nd half	32.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	20.9%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield not to win both halves	92.1%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Unión (Santa Fe) not to win both halves	89.7%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Unión (Santa Fe) to win both halves	10.3%	12.0%	—	—	8.36
Vélez Sarsfield to win both halves	7.9%	5.9%	—	—	17.09

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to win either half	53.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Vélez Sarsfield to win neither half	51.6%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
Vélez Sarsfield to win either half	48.4%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Unión (Santa Fe) to win neither half	46.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil	82.8%	83.1%	82.9%	1.00×	1.20
Unión (Santa Fe) not to win to nil	79.7%	78.2%	72.3%	1.08×	1.28
Unión (Santa Fe) to win to nil	20.3%	21.8%	27.7%	0.79×	4.58
Vélez Sarsfield to win to nil	17.2%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.9%	27.9%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
Unión (Santa Fe) by 1	20.6%	24.1%	24.3%	0.99×	4.15
Vélez Sarsfield by 1	18.8%	17.1%	18.6%	0.92×	5.86
Unión (Santa Fe) by 2	11.8%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.51
Vélez Sarsfield by 2	9.9%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.90
Unión (Santa Fe) by 3+	6.9%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.91
Vélez Sarsfield by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	3.0%	2.42×	13.92