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Universidad Católica v Deportes Limache — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Universidad Católica win
53.2%
model 53.7%
Draw
19.1%
model 18.4%
Deportes Limache win
27.7%
model 27.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (466 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.4%
  2. 1-0 8.2%
  3. 1-1 7.7%
  4. 2-0 6.7%
  5. 2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.566.3% Under 2.533.7%
BTTS yes63.6% BTTS no36.4%
Universidad Católica 1+86.8% Universidad Católica 2+60.0%
Deportes Limache 1+75.1% Deportes Limache 2+40.5%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
82/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 38%
55.8% fair odds 1.79
strong signal · 764 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 1st half
Over/Under 1HT
84.0% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Universidad Católica carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1504.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Universidad Católica have an estimated 53.2% win probability, against 27.7% for Deportes Limache and 19.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Universidad Católica and 1.39 for Deportes Limache.

Why Universidad Católica

Universidad Católica carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1504.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Deportes Limache can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Universidad Católica, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Deportes Limache, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Universidad Católica: 47% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Deportes Limache: 49% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Universidad Católica are the model's most likely outcome at 53.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.4%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.02–1.39 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.33–1.45 2-1 9% 73% 68%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win 58.6% 54.0% 49.0% 1.10× 1.85
Deportes Limache to win 24.5% 24.5% 30.0% 0.82× 4.09
Draw 16.9% 19.4% 21.2% 0.91× 5.16
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica & both teams score 36.0% 33.3% 22.4% 1.48× 3.00
Universidad Católica & not both score 22.6% 21.8% 26.8% 0.81× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 16.0% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Deportes Limache & both teams score 15.7% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.57
Deportes Limache & not both score 8.7% 8.3% 16.8% 0.50× 12.00
Draw & not both score 1.0% 4.9% 4.9% 1.00× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica & over 1.5 51.9% 48.8% 36.1% 1.35× 2.05
Universidad Católica & over 2.5 45.7% 45.0% 29.3% 1.54× 2.22
Universidad Católica & over 3.5 31.9% 30.7% 15.1% 2.03× 3.25
Universidad Católica & under 3.5 26.7% 26.1% 34.1% 0.76× 3.84
Deportes Limache & over 1.5 19.8% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.55
Deportes Limache & over 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.0% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Deportes Limache & under 3.5 13.8% 12.8% 23.4% 0.55× 7.79
Universidad Católica & under 2.5 12.9% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Deportes Limache & over 3.5 10.7% 12.8% 6.8% 1.88× 7.79
Draw & over 2.5 9.5% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 9.5% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & under 2.5 7.4% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 7.4% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Deportes Limache & under 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 13.7% 0.58× 12.63
Universidad Católica & under 1.5 6.6% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.63
Deportes Limache & under 1.5 4.6% 4.8% 10.2% 0.47× 20.81
Draw & under 1.5 1.0% 4.8% 4.9% 0.98× 20.84
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (1UP) 74.2% 75.3% — — 1.33
Deportes Limache (1UP) 46.3% 43.8% — — 2.29
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2UP) 58.6% 54.9% — — 1.82
Deportes Limache (2UP) 24.5% 23.9% — — 4.18
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win 2nd half 47.8% 45.2% — — 2.21
2nd half drawn 27.3% 26.1% — — 3.84
Deportes Limache to win 2nd half 24.9% 24.4% — — 4.09
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.5% 79.5% — — 1.26
Deportes Limache over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.0% 54.4% — — 1.84
Deportes Limache under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.0% 45.6% — — 2.20
Deportes Limache over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.5% 20.5% — — 4.89
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.5% 74.4% — — 1.34
Universidad Católica under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.7% 63.1% — — 1.59
Universidad Católica over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.3% 36.9% — — 2.71
Universidad Católica under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.5% 25.6% — — 3.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (+2.5) 80.7% 82.6% 89.5% 0.92× 1.21
Universidad Católica (+0.5) 75.5% 78.5% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
Deportes Limache (+1.5) 63.8% 63.0% 76.8% 0.82× 1.59
Universidad Católica (-0.5) 58.6% 57.1% 49.0% 1.16× 1.75
Deportes Limache (+0.5) 41.4% 42.9% 51.0% 0.84× 2.33
Universidad Católica (-1.5) 36.2% 37.0% 23.2% 1.60× 2.70
Deportes Limache (-0.5) 24.5% 21.5% 30.0% 0.72× 4.65
Universidad Católica (-2.5) 19.3% 17.4% 10.5% 1.66× 5.73
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to concede 90.3% 91.6% 78.5% 1.17× 1.09
Deportes Limache clean sheet 9.7% 8.4% 21.5% 0.39× 11.88
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to concede in 1st half 63.3% 64.6% — — 1.55
Deportes Limache clean sheet in 1st half 36.7% 35.4% — — 2.83
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to concede in 2nd half 73.5% 71.5% — — 1.40
Deportes Limache clean sheet in 2nd half 26.5% 28.5% — — 3.51
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 6.5 corners 87.6% 85.2% — — 1.17
Deportes Limache under 5.5 corners 78.9% 76.1% — — 1.32
Deportes Limache over 2.5 corners 68.2% 67.6% — — 1.48
Deportes Limache under 4.5 corners 66.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
Deportes Limache under 3.5 corners 50.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Deportes Limache over 3.5 corners 49.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Deportes Limache over 4.5 corners 33.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
Deportes Limache under 2.5 corners 31.8% 32.4% — — 3.09
Deportes Limache over 5.5 corners 21.1% 23.9% — — 4.18
Deportes Limache over 6.5 corners 12.4% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 3.5 goals 94.1% 92.4% 97.1% 0.95× 1.08
Deportes Limache under 2.5 goals 82.3% 81.5% 88.3% 0.92× 1.23
Deportes Limache over 0.5 goals 76.4% 76.2% 68.5% 1.11× 1.31
Deportes Limache under 1.5 goals 57.6% 59.4% 68.5% 0.87× 1.68
Deportes Limache over 1.5 goals 42.4% 40.6% 31.5% 1.29× 2.47
Deportes Limache under 0.5 goals 23.6% 23.8% 31.5% 0.76× 4.21
Deportes Limache over 2.5 goals 17.7% 18.5% 11.7% 1.58× 5.41
Deportes Limache over 3.5 goals 5.9% 7.6% 2.9% 2.61× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache under 1.5 in 1st half 88.5% 89.3% — — 1.12
Deportes Limache under 0.5 in 1st half 56.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Deportes Limache over 0.5 in 1st half 43.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Deportes Limache over 1.5 in 1st half 11.5% 10.7% — — 9.35
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache scores more in 2nd half 40.1% 43.6% — — 2.29
Deportes Limache scores equally in both 37.0% 37.3% — — 2.68
Deportes Limache scores more in 1st half 23.0% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (away no bet) 77.6% 73.5% 69.8% 1.05× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 22.4% 26.5% 30.2% 0.88× 3.77
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache even goals 52.8% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Deportes Limache odd goals 47.2% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 69.8% 69.0% — — 1.45
Both halves over 1.5 goals 30.2% 31.0% — — 3.22
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 80.4% 78.4% — — 1.28
Both halves under 1.5 goals 19.6% 21.6% — — 4.63
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 73.1% 71.9% — — 1.39
Universidad Católica to score 2+ in a row 56.9% 54.9% — — 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 34.5% 29.0% — — 3.45
Deportes Limache to score 2+ in a row 29.0% 25.0% — — 4.00
Universidad Católica to score 3+ in a row 27.3% 24.9% — — 4.01
Deportes Limache to score 3+ in a row 8.1% 5.5% — — 18.13
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica corners (+3.5) 93.9% 89.6% — — 1.12
Universidad Católica corners (+2.5) 89.9% 84.5% — — 1.18
Universidad Católica corners (+1.5) 84.1% 79.8% — — 1.25
Deportes Limache corners (+3.5) 64.3% 61.9% — — 1.62
Universidad Católica corners (-1.5) 56.6% 57.2% — — 1.75
Deportes Limache corners (+2.5) 54.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
Universidad Católica corners (-2.5) 45.9% 47.6% — — 2.10
Deportes Limache corners (+1.5) 43.4% 42.8% — — 2.33
Universidad Católica corners (-3.5) 35.7% 38.1% — — 2.62
Deportes Limache corners (-1.5) 15.9% 20.2% — — 4.95
Deportes Limache corners (-2.5) 10.1% 15.5% — — 6.45
Deportes Limache corners (-3.5) 6.1% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 39.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 31.1% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 70.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.9% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 60.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 50.1% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 49.9% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 40.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 39.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 31.1% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 29.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 23.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 10.1% 11.5% 3.4% 3.36× 8.72
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
1-0 6.6% 7.4% 13.2% 0.56× 13.51
2-2 6.5% 7.4% 6.1% 1.21× 13.51
3-1 7.0% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.51
1-1 6.4% 7.4% 9.3% 0.80× 13.51
1-2 5.6% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-0 6.2% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
3-2 5.1% 7.4% 2.0% 3.79× 13.51
3-0 4.8% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.29
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
1-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
3-3 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
4-0 2.8% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.30
4-1 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.30
4-2 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.30
4-3 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
4-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
0-0 1.0% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.31
0-1 4.6% 1.7% 10.2% 0.17× 58.29
0-2 2.4% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.31
0-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2nd half DNB) 65.8% 66.8% — — 1.50
Deportes Limache (2nd half DNB) 34.2% 33.2% — — 3.01
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica leading at HT (DNB) 68.3% 73.8% — — 1.36
Deportes Limache leading at HT (DNB) 31.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or Deportes Limache (12) 83.1% 80.6% 78.8% 1.02× 1.24
Universidad Católica or draw (1X) 75.5% 75.5% 70.0% 1.08× 1.32
Deportes Limache or draw (X2) 41.4% 46.0% 51.0% 0.90× 2.17
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw at HT 79.0% 79.7% — — 1.26
Universidad Católica or Deportes Limache at HT 66.1% 67.1% — — 1.49
Deportes Limache or draw at HT 54.9% 48.7% — — 2.05
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw (1UP) 75.5% 83.5% — — 1.20
Deportes Limache or draw (1UP) 46.3% 52.9% — — 1.89
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw in 2nd half 75.1% 75.6% — — 1.32
Universidad Católica or Deportes Limache in 2nd half 72.7% 73.9% — — 1.35
Deportes Limache or draw in 2nd half 52.2% 54.8% — — 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 53.5% 50.3% — — 1.99
Neither half drawn 46.5% 49.7% — — 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (DNB) 70.5% 71.4% 62.0% 1.15× 1.40
Deportes Limache (DNB) 29.5% 28.6% 38.0% 0.75× 3.49
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score first 61.1% 63.8% — — 1.57
Deportes Limache to score first 37.9% 32.7% — — 3.06
No goal scored 1.0% 4.3% — — 23.28
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 67.7% 58.4% 52.0% 1.12× 1.71
Not both teams to score 32.3% 41.6% 48.0% 0.87× 2.41
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 61.3% 50.4% 42.9% 1.17× 1.99
Not both score & under 2.5 20.9% 27.8% 38.0% 0.73× 3.59
Not both score & over 2.5 11.4% 12.4% 10.2% 1.21× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 6.4% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 71.4% 80.4% 84.6% 0.95× 1.24
Both teams to score 2+ 28.6% 19.6% 15.4% 1.28× 5.09
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 57.8% 65.5% — — 1.53
Both teams to score in 2nd half 42.2% 34.5% — — 2.90
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 42.1% 50.3% — — 1.99
Both score 2nd half only 30.3% 28.7% — — 3.48
Both score 1st half only 15.7% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 11.8% 10.7% — — 9.33
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 72.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 27.6% 20.2% — — 4.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 69.9% 65.7% — — 1.52
A half without a goal 30.1% 34.3% — — 2.91
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 43.3% 42.2% 26.8% 1.57× 2.37
2-3 goals 35.6% 35.0% 43.4% 0.81× 2.86
0-1 goals 12.3% 16.9% 27.8% 0.61× 5.91
7+ goals 8.8% 7.6% 2.4% 3.13× 13.08
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.8% 37.3% 0.91× 2.96
Deportes Limache to score exactly 2 24.6% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Deportes Limache to score exactly 0 23.6% 22.3% 31.5% 0.71× 4.49
Deportes Limache to score 3+ 17.7% 19.5% 11.7% 1.67× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score 3+ 41.2% 35.1% 21.0% 1.67× 2.85
Universidad Católica to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.6% 26.3% 1.01× 3.77
Universidad Católica to score exactly 1 22.7% 23.3% 31.7% 0.73× 4.29
Universidad Católica to score exactly 0 9.7% 10.4% 21.5% 0.48× 9.64
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica leading at HT 45.1% 51.3% — — 1.95
Draw at HT 33.9% 32.9% — — 3.04
Deportes Limache leading at HT 21.0% 20.3% — — 4.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica -1: 2 41.4% 42.8% — — 2.34
Universidad Católica -1: 1 36.2% 37.4% — — 2.68
Universidad Católica -1: X 22.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:1) 41.4% 42.6% 51.0% 0.84× 2.35
Universidad Católica (0:1) 36.2% 37.3% 23.2% 1.61× 2.68
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:2) 63.8% 67.1% 76.8% 0.87× 1.49
Universidad Católica (0:2) 19.3% 15.3% 10.5% 1.46× 6.55
Draw (0:2) 16.9% 15.3% 12.9% 1.18× 6.56
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:3) 80.7% 85.3% 89.5% 0.95× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 10.6% 9.9% 5.4% 1.84× 10.15
Universidad Católica (0:3) 8.7% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.22
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (0:4) 91.3% 94.5% 94.6% 1.00× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.3% 4.6% 4.1% 1.11× 21.71
Universidad Católica (0:4) 3.4% 1.2% 1.5% 0.84× 81.60
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (1:0) 75.5% 78.5% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 14.4% 12.7% 20.0% 0.64× 7.86
Deportes Limache (1:0) 10.1% 12.7% 10.2% 1.24× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2:0) 89.9% 88.5% 89.8% 0.99× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 1.01× 15.67
Deportes Limache (2:0) 3.6% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.70
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.9% 50.3% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 28.6% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 18.5% 18.5% — — 5.41
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to concede 76.4% 76.0% 68.5% 1.11× 1.32
Universidad Católica clean sheet 23.6% 24.0% 31.5% 0.76× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica clean sheet in 1st half 56.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Universidad Católica to concede in 1st half 43.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to concede in 2nd half 58.0% 54.8% — — 1.82
Universidad Católica clean sheet in 2nd half 42.0% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 2.5 corners 88.7% 86.2% — — 1.16
Universidad Católica over 3.5 corners 78.3% 76.5% — — 1.31
Universidad Católica over 4.5 corners 65.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Universidad Católica under 6.5 corners 60.2% 62.3% — — 1.61
Universidad Católica over 5.5 corners 52.4% 52.6% — — 1.90
Universidad Católica under 5.5 corners 47.6% 47.4% — — 2.11
Universidad Católica over 6.5 corners 39.8% 37.7% — — 2.65
Universidad Católica under 4.5 corners 34.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Universidad Católica under 3.5 corners 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Universidad Católica under 2.5 corners 11.3% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 0.5 goals 90.3% 92.2% 78.5% 1.17× 1.09
Universidad Católica under 3.5 goals 79.4% 77.8% 91.0% 0.85× 1.29
Universidad Católica over 1.5 goals 67.6% 67.9% 47.1% 1.44× 1.47
Universidad Católica under 2.5 goals 58.8% 58.7% 79.0% 0.74× 1.71
Universidad Católica over 2.5 goals 41.2% 41.3% 21.0% 1.97× 2.42
Universidad Católica under 1.5 goals 32.4% 32.1% 52.9% 0.61× 3.12
Universidad Católica over 3.5 goals 20.6% 22.2% 9.0% 2.46× 4.50
Universidad Católica under 0.5 goals 9.7% 7.8% 21.5% 0.36× 12.82
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica under 1.5 in 1st half 73.5% 79.4% — — 1.26
Universidad Católica over 0.5 in 1st half 63.3% 64.4% — — 1.55
Universidad Católica under 0.5 in 1st half 36.7% 35.6% — — 2.81
Universidad Católica over 1.5 in 1st half 26.5% 20.6% — — 4.86
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica scores more in 2nd half 44.1% 41.8% — — 2.40
Universidad Católica scores more in 1st half 28.2% 27.9% — — 3.59
Universidad Católica scores equally in both 27.7% 27.9% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache (home no bet) 59.1% 56.4% 58.6% 0.96× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 40.9% 43.6% 41.4% 1.05× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica even goals 50.5% 50.7% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Universidad Católica odd goals 49.5% 49.3% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 20.9% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-0 20.4% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 12.1% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 1-1 11.7% 11.0% — — 9.11
HT 2-0 10.3% 11.0% — — 9.12
Any other HT score 10.0% 6.9% — — 14.50
HT 2-1 6.0% 6.9% — — 14.57
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-2 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 37.7% 41.4% — — 2.42
Draw at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 17.0% 16.8% — — 5.97
Deportes Limache at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 12.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 9.2% 6.1% — — 16.43
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 7.7% 6.1% — — 16.47
Universidad Católica at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
Deportes Limache at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
Deportes Limache at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.90
Universidad Católica at HT / Deportes Limache at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score last 60.9% 61.9% — — 1.62
Deportes Limache to score last 38.1% 38.7% — — 2.59
No goal scored 1.0% 4.3% — — 23.28
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 99.0% 95.6% — — 1.05
Universidad Católica to lead by 1 at any time 74.2% 74.2% — — 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.3% 61.2% — — 1.63
Deportes Limache to lead by 1 at any time 46.3% 44.3% — — 2.26
Universidad Católica to lead by 2 at any time 45.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 29.4% 25.3% — — 3.95
Universidad Católica to lead by 3 at any time 23.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Deportes Limache to lead by 2 at any time 17.5% 14.8% — — 6.74
Deportes Limache to lead by 3 at any time 5.7% 6.6% — — 15.12
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica most corners 67.1% 64.5% — — 1.55
Deportes Limache most corners 23.6% 25.9% — — 3.86
Corners level 9.4% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.0% 83.4% 87.3% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 78.9% 78.7% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
2-5 goals 69.7% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
1-4 goals 66.3% 68.8% 81.2% 0.85× 1.45
3-6 goals 63.9% 63.3% 50.7% 1.25× 1.58
2-4 goals 55.1% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.7% 53.2% 45.1% 1.18× 1.88
1-3 goals 46.9% 48.4% 66.3% 0.73× 2.06
4-6 goals 43.3% 43.6% 26.8% 1.63× 2.29
3-4 goals 40.0% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
2-3 goals 35.6% 39.2% 43.4% 0.90× 2.55
4-5 goals 34.1% 35.2% 21.2% 1.66× 2.84
1-2 goals 26.3% 30.2% 42.4% 0.71× 3.31
5-6 goals 23.9% 24.5% 12.0% 2.05× 4.09
7+ goals 8.8% 8.9% 2.4% 3.64× 11.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica never behind 52.7% 62.4% — — 1.60
Deportes Limache never behind 24.8% 25.3% — — 3.95
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 47.4% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 52.6% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.7% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 48.3% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Even goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 99.0% 95.4% 95.1% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 87.7% 87.6% 72.2% 1.21× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 82.0% 82.3% 92.0% 0.90× 1.22
Over 2.5 goals 72.7% 72.5% 52.9% 1.37× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 67.3% 66.3% 85.9% 0.77× 1.51
Over 3.5 goals 52.1% 52.5% 29.0% 1.81× 1.90
Under 3.5 goals 47.9% 47.5% 71.0% 0.67× 2.11
Over 4.5 goals 32.7% 33.7% 14.1% 2.38× 2.97
Under 2.5 goals 27.3% 27.5% 47.1% 0.58× 3.63
Over 5.5 goals 18.0% 17.7% 8.0% 2.20× 5.65
Under 1.5 goals 12.3% 12.4% 27.8% 0.45× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 1.0% 4.6% 4.9% 0.94× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 90.3% 92.4% 97.4% 0.95× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 85.6% 86.7% 65.6% 1.32× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 78.9% 75.9% 91.4% 0.83× 1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 65.6% 67.5% 38.1% 1.77× 1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 59.4% 55.8% 83.4% 0.67× 1.79
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 40.6% 44.2% 16.6% 2.66× 2.26
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 34.4% 32.5% 61.9% 0.53× 3.08
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 21.1% 24.1% 8.6% 2.81× 4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 14.4% 13.3% 34.4% 0.39× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 9.7% 7.6% 2.6% 2.94× 13.17
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 79.6% 78.2% — — 1.28
Under 2.5 in 1st half 78.9% 78.1% — — 1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half 53.4% 53.3% — — 1.88
Over 1.5 in 1st half 46.6% 46.7% — — 2.14
Over 2.5 in 1st half 21.1% 21.9% — — 4.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 20.4% 21.8% — — 4.58
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 89.3% 85.5% — — 1.17
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 64.0% 61.6% — — 1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 62.4% 61.5% — — 1.63
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 37.6% 38.5% — — 2.60
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 36.0% 38.4% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 10.7% 14.5% — — 6.88
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache not to score in both halves 74.5% 73.9% — — 1.35
Universidad Católica not to score in both halves 53.5% 56.0% — — 1.79
Universidad Católica to score in both halves 46.5% 44.0% — — 2.27
Deportes Limache to score in both halves 25.5% 26.1% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 67.7% 59.8% 52.0% 1.15× 1.67
Only Universidad Católica scores 22.6% 22.3% 26.8% 0.83× 4.49
Only Deportes Limache scores 8.7% 7.1% 16.8% 0.42× 13.99
Neither team scores 1.0% 4.6% 4.9% 0.95× 21.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 20.6% 22.6% 24.1% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 19.4% 17.5% 15.1% 1.15× 5.73
6 or more goals 18.0% 17.5% 8.0% 2.17× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 15.1% 17.5% 19.5% 0.89× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 14.7% 12.1% 6.3% 1.91× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 11.3% 12.1% 23.2% 0.52× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 1.0% 4.5% 4.9% 0.92× 22.38
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 33.0% 35.7% — — 2.80
2 goals in 1st half 25.5% 28.6% — — 3.50
3+ goals in 1st half 21.1% 21.5% — — 4.66
No goals in 1st half 20.4% 21.4% — — 4.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 64.0% 59.0% — — 1.69
1 goal in 2nd half 25.3% 29.1% — — 3.44
No goals in 2nd half 10.7% 14.3% — — 6.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache not to win both halves 94.9% 94.2% — — 1.06
Universidad Católica not to win both halves 78.7% 75.7% — — 1.32
Universidad Católica to win both halves 21.3% 24.3% — — 4.12
Deportes Limache to win both halves 5.1% 5.8% — — 17.29
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win either half 71.7% 73.0% — — 1.37
Deportes Limache to win neither half 59.2% 59.1% — — 1.69
Deportes Limache to win either half 40.8% 40.9% — — 2.45
Universidad Católica to win neither half 28.3% 27.0% — — 3.70
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Deportes Limache not to win to nil 91.3% 92.1% 83.2% 1.11× 1.09
Universidad Católica not to win to nil 77.4% 78.1% 73.2% 1.07× 1.28
Universidad Católica to win to nil 22.6% 21.9% 26.8% 0.82× 4.57
Deportes Limache to win to nil 8.7% 7.9% 16.8% 0.47× 12.63
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica by 1 22.4% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Universidad Católica by 3+ 19.3% 17.1% 10.5% 1.63× 5.86
Universidad Católica by 2 16.9% 17.0% 12.9% 1.32× 5.87
Draw 16.9% 17.0% 21.2% 0.80× 5.87
Deportes Limache by 1 14.4% 11.8% 20.0% 0.59× 8.50
Deportes Limache by 2 6.5% 7.2% 6.3% 1.13× 13.91
Deportes Limache by 3+ 3.6% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.86
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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