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Universidad Católica v Huachipato — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Universidad Católica win
69.7%
model 68.9%
Draw
11.2%
model 14.9%
Huachipato win
19.1%
model 16.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (176 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.5%
  2. 2-0 8.8%
  3. 1-0 8.4%
  4. 3-1 7.8%
  5. 3-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.568.7% Under 2.531.3%
BTTS yes59.2% BTTS no40.8%
Universidad Católica 1+91.5% Universidad Católica 2+70.5%
Huachipato 1+66.1% Huachipato 2+29.4%

Expected goals 2.46 – 1.08. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
76/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 38%
62.2% fair odds 1.61
strong signal · 872 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Universidad Católica or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.9% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Universidad Católica carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1413.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Universidad Católica have an estimated 69.7% win probability, against 19.1% for Huachipato and 11.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.46 for Universidad Católica and 1.08 for Huachipato.

Why Universidad Católica

Universidad Católica carry the stronger rating, 1621 Elo against 1413.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 11.2%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Huachipato can win

Nothing in the data singles out Huachipato.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Universidad Católica, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Huachipato, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Universidad Católica: 47% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Huachipato: 44% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 22.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Universidad Católica are the model's most likely outcome at 69.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.5%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.46–1.08 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.88–1.14 2-1 8% 76% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win 74.1% 73.9% 49.0% 1.51× 1.35
Huachipato to win 13.2% 13.5% 30.0% 0.45× 7.43
Draw 12.7% 13.4% 21.2% 0.63× 7.44
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica & both teams score 42.9% 40.1% 22.4% 1.79× 2.49
Universidad Católica & not both score 31.2% 29.6% 26.8% 1.10× 3.38
Draw & both teams score 11.9% 13.3% 16.6% 0.80× 7.54
Huachipato & both teams score 8.4% 8.3% 13.4% 0.62× 12.00
Huachipato & not both score 4.8% 4.9% 16.8% 0.29× 20.48
Draw & not both score 0.8% 4.9% 4.9% 1.00× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica & over 1.5 67.9% 67.8% 36.1% 1.88× 1.48
Universidad Católica & over 2.5 60.4% 54.6% 29.3% 1.86× 1.83
Universidad Católica & over 3.5 44.8% 40.3% 15.1% 2.66× 2.48
Universidad Católica & under 3.5 29.3% 26.1% 34.1% 0.76× 3.84
Universidad Católica & under 2.5 13.6% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Draw & over 1.5 11.9% 12.8% 16.6% 0.77× 7.79
Huachipato & over 1.5 10.1% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.79
Huachipato & over 2.5 9.0% 7.9% 16.6% 0.48× 12.63
Huachipato & under 3.5 8.0% 7.9% 23.4% 0.34× 12.63
Universidad Católica & under 1.5 6.2% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.0% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & under 2.5 5.7% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Draw & under 3.5 5.7% 7.9% 13.9% 0.57× 12.63
Huachipato & over 3.5 5.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Huachipato & under 2.5 4.2% 4.8% 13.7% 0.35× 20.82
Huachipato & under 1.5 3.0% 4.8% 10.2% 0.47× 20.82
Draw & under 1.5 0.8% 4.8% 4.9% 0.98× 20.84
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (1UP) 84.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
Huachipato (1UP) 33.8% 33.1% — — 3.02
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2UP) 74.1% 81.6% — — 1.23
Huachipato (2UP) 13.2% 14.0% — — 7.17
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win 2nd half 60.8% 58.9% — — 1.70
2nd half drawn 23.6% 24.4% — — 4.10
Huachipato to win 2nd half 15.6% 17.7% — — 5.64
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 1.5 in 2nd half 85.0% 84.3% — — 1.19
Huachipato under 0.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 52.3% — — 1.91
Huachipato over 0.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 47.7% — — 2.10
Huachipato over 1.5 in 2nd half 15.0% 15.7% — — 6.36
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.6% 82.3% — — 1.22
Universidad Católica under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.2% 54.9% — — 1.82
Universidad Católica over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.8% 45.1% — — 2.22
Universidad Católica under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.4% 17.7% — — 5.64
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (+0.5) 86.8% 88.5% 70.0% 1.26× 1.13
Universidad Católica (-0.5) 74.1% 73.7% 49.0% 1.50× 1.36
Huachipato (+2.5) 66.6% 68.7% 89.5% 0.77× 1.46
Universidad Católica (-1.5) 53.2% 52.4% 23.2% 2.26× 1.91
Huachipato (+1.5) 46.8% 47.6% 76.8% 0.62× 2.10
Universidad Católica (-2.5) 33.4% 31.3% 10.5% 2.99× 3.19
Huachipato (+0.5) 25.9% 26.3% 51.0% 0.52× 3.80
Huachipato (-0.5) 13.2% 11.5% 30.0% 0.38× 8.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to concede 94.4% 91.8% 78.5% 1.17× 1.09
Huachipato clean sheet 5.6% 8.2% 21.5% 0.38× 12.16
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to concede in 1st half 71.0% 75.5% — — 1.33
Huachipato clean sheet in 1st half 29.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to concede in 2nd half 80.6% 80.3% — — 1.25
Huachipato clean sheet in 2nd half 19.4% 19.7% — — 5.06
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 6.5 corners 88.8% 85.2% — — 1.17
Huachipato under 5.5 corners 80.6% 81.4% — — 1.23
Huachipato under 4.5 corners 68.3% 67.6% — — 1.48
Huachipato over 2.5 corners 66.4% 67.6% — — 1.48
Huachipato under 3.5 corners 52.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Huachipato over 3.5 corners 47.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Huachipato under 2.5 corners 33.6% 32.4% — — 3.09
Huachipato over 4.5 corners 31.7% 32.4% — — 3.09
Huachipato over 5.5 corners 19.4% 18.6% — — 5.37
Huachipato over 6.5 corners 11.2% 14.8% — — 6.78
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 3.5 goals 97.1% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Huachipato under 2.5 goals 89.2% 87.8% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
Huachipato under 1.5 goals 68.5% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Huachipato over 0.5 goals 68.0% 68.0% 68.5% 0.99× 1.47
Huachipato under 0.5 goals 32.0% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Huachipato over 1.5 goals 31.5% 32.0% 31.5% 1.02× 3.13
Huachipato over 2.5 goals 10.8% 12.2% 11.7% 1.04× 8.21
Huachipato over 3.5 goals 2.9% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.82
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato under 1.5 in 1st half 92.3% 93.9% — — 1.07
Huachipato under 0.5 in 1st half 63.4% 63.3% — — 1.58
Huachipato over 0.5 in 1st half 36.6% 36.7% — — 2.72
Huachipato over 1.5 in 1st half 7.7% 6.1% — — 16.46
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato scores equally in both 42.8% 43.7% — — 2.29
Huachipato scores more in 2nd half 35.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
Huachipato scores more in 1st half 21.3% 21.8% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (away no bet) 85.3% 84.2% 69.8% 1.21× 1.19
Draw (away no bet) 14.7% 15.8% 30.2% 0.52× 6.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato even goals 55.1% 56.9% 53.7% 1.06× 1.76
Huachipato odd goals 44.9% 43.1% 46.3% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 66.0% 67.9% — — 1.47
Both halves over 1.5 goals 34.0% 32.1% — — 3.11
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 83.4% 79.0% — — 1.27
Both halves under 1.5 goals 16.6% 21.0% — — 4.77
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 78.6% 75.7% — — 1.32
Universidad Católica to score 2+ in a row 70.3% 71.5% — — 1.40
Either team to score 3+ in a row 44.6% 38.9% — — 2.57
Universidad Católica to score 3+ in a row 41.3% 38.7% — — 2.59
Huachipato to score 2+ in a row 19.0% 16.2% — — 6.18
Huachipato to score 3+ in a row 4.0% 2.6% — — 38.56
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica corners (+3.5) 95.1% 95.7% — — 1.05
Universidad Católica corners (+2.5) 91.8% 89.6% — — 1.12
Universidad Católica corners (+1.5) 86.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Universidad Católica corners (-1.5) 61.4% 61.9% — — 1.62
Huachipato corners (+3.5) 59.3% 57.2% — — 1.75
Universidad Católica corners (-2.5) 51.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
Huachipato corners (+2.5) 49.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
Universidad Católica corners (-3.5) 40.7% 42.8% — — 2.33
Huachipato corners (+1.5) 38.6% 38.2% — — 2.62
Huachipato corners (-1.5) 13.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Huachipato corners (-2.5) 8.2% 10.4% — — 9.60
Huachipato corners (-3.5) 4.9% 4.3% — — 23.43
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
12+ corners 33.6% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 29.4% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.9% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.4% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 63.0% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 47.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.0% 36.7% — — 2.72
Over 11.5 corners 33.6% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 27.1% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 16.9% 13.8% 3.4% 4.05× 7.23
2-1 8.5% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
2-0 7.5% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
3-0 7.2% 7.4% 3.9% 1.90× 13.51
3-1 8.2% 7.4% 4.6% 1.60× 13.51
1-0 6.2% 7.4% 13.2% 0.56× 13.51
4-0 5.2% 7.4% 2.4% 3.03× 13.51
4-1 5.9% 7.4% 1.7% 4.34× 13.51
1-1 4.9% 1.7% 9.3% 0.19× 58.29
2-2 4.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.29
0-0 0.8% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.31
0-1 3.0% 1.7% 10.2% 0.17× 58.30
0-2 1.2% 1.7% 3.7% 0.47× 58.31
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
1-2 3.4% 1.7% 7.3% 0.23× 58.30
1-3 1.3% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.32
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-2 4.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.29
3-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-2 3.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.30
4-3 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.31
4-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2nd half DNB) 79.5% 80.1% — — 1.25
Huachipato (2nd half DNB) 20.5% 19.9% — — 5.03
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica leading at HT (DNB) 80.3% 84.4% — — 1.19
Huachipato leading at HT (DNB) 19.7% 15.6% — — 6.42
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or Huachipato (12) 87.3% 86.6% 78.8% 1.10× 1.16
Universidad Católica or draw (1X) 86.8% 86.5% 70.0% 1.24× 1.16
Huachipato or draw (X2) 25.9% 26.1% 51.0% 0.51× 3.83
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw at HT 86.2% 88.1% — — 1.14
Universidad Católica or Huachipato at HT 70.0% 74.4% — — 1.34
Huachipato or draw at HT 43.8% 43.4% — — 2.30
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw (1UP) 86.8% 92.0% — — 1.09
Huachipato or draw (1UP) 33.8% 39.4% — — 2.54
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica or draw in 2nd half 84.4% 82.3% — — 1.22
Universidad Católica or Huachipato in 2nd half 76.4% 75.6% — — 1.32
Huachipato or draw in 2nd half 39.2% 41.1% — — 2.43
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 52.3% 50.2% — — 1.99
A half drawn 47.7% 49.8% — — 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (DNB) 84.9% 80.5% 62.0% 1.30× 1.24
Huachipato (DNB) 15.1% 19.5% 38.0% 0.51× 5.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score first 71.1% 75.1% — — 1.33
Huachipato to score first 28.1% 27.9% — — 3.58
No goal scored 0.8% 4.3% — — 23.31
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.2% 56.6% 52.0% 1.09× 1.77
Not both teams to score 36.8% 43.4% 48.0% 0.90× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 58.3% 47.5% 42.9% 1.11× 2.11
Not both score & under 2.5 18.7% 21.5% 38.0% 0.57× 4.65
Not both score & over 2.5 18.2% 21.5% 10.2% 2.10× 4.65
Both score & under 2.5 4.9% 4.8% 9.3% 0.51× 20.99
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 75.4% 79.7% 84.6% 0.94× 1.26
Both teams to score 2+ 24.6% 20.3% 15.4% 1.32× 4.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 60.4% 65.7% — — 1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half 39.6% 34.3% — — 2.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 45.0% 50.8% — — 1.97
Both score 2nd half only 29.2% 26.8% — — 3.73
Both score 1st half only 15.4% 14.9% — — 6.72
Both score in both halves 10.4% 10.7% — — 9.35
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 74.2% 80.0% — — 1.25
Both teams to score by HT 25.8% 20.0% — — 4.99
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 73.1% 75.1% — — 1.33
A half without a goal 26.9% 24.9% — — 4.02
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 45.8% 47.2% 26.8% 1.76× 2.12
2-3 goals 33.0% 30.7% 43.4% 0.71× 3.25
7+ goals 11.1% 16.9% 2.4% 6.94× 5.91
0-1 goals 10.0% 16.9% 27.8% 0.61× 5.92
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato to score exactly 1 36.5% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.78
Huachipato to score exactly 0 32.0% 33.8% 31.5% 1.08× 2.96
Huachipato to score exactly 2 20.8% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Huachipato to score 3+ 10.8% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score 3+ 54.9% 43.4% 21.0% 2.07× 2.30
Universidad Católica to score exactly 2 23.3% 23.3% 26.3% 0.88× 4.29
Universidad Católica to score exactly 1 16.2% 18.8% 31.7% 0.59× 5.32
Universidad Católica to score exactly 0 5.6% 10.3% 21.5% 0.48× 9.69
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica leading at HT 56.2% 56.6% — — 1.77
Draw at HT 30.0% 25.6% — — 3.90
Huachipato leading at HT 13.8% 11.9% — — 8.43
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica -1: 1 53.2% 52.2% — — 1.92
Universidad Católica -1: 2 25.9% 26.5% — — 3.77
Universidad Católica -1: X 20.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (0:1) 53.2% 51.3% 23.2% 2.21× 1.95
Huachipato (0:1) 25.9% 27.0% 51.0% 0.53× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 20.8% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:2) 46.8% 51.0% 76.8% 0.66× 1.96
Universidad Católica (0:2) 33.4% 29.1% 10.5% 2.77× 3.44
Draw (0:2) 19.8% 15.3% 12.9% 1.18× 6.55
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:3) 66.6% 71.4% 89.5% 0.80× 1.40
Universidad Católica (0:3) 18.0% 16.3% 5.4% 3.03× 6.14
Draw (0:3) 15.4% 16.2% 5.4% 3.01× 6.19
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (0:4) 82.0% 86.9% 94.6% 0.92× 1.15
Draw (0:4) 9.6% 4.7% 4.1% 1.13× 21.35
Universidad Católica (0:4) 8.4% 4.7% 1.5% 3.19× 21.45
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (1:0) 86.8% 86.1% 70.0% 1.23× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.8% 6.9% 20.0% 0.35× 14.47
Huachipato (1:0) 4.3% 3.3% 10.2% 0.32× 30.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica (2:0) 95.7% 96.8% 89.8% 1.08× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.1% 2.3% 6.3% 0.36× 43.73
Huachipato (2:0) 1.2% 2.3% 4.1% 0.55× 43.85
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.9% 50.3% — — 1.99
1st half highest scoring 28.8% 26.3% — — 3.81
Halves equal 18.3% 18.4% — — 5.43
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to concede 68.0% 66.7% 68.5% 0.97× 1.50
Universidad Católica clean sheet 32.0% 33.3% 31.5% 1.06× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica clean sheet in 1st half 63.4% 63.2% — — 1.58
Universidad Católica to concede in 1st half 36.6% 36.8% — — 2.72
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica clean sheet in 2nd half 50.5% 52.4% — — 1.91
Universidad Católica to concede in 2nd half 49.5% 47.6% — — 2.10
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 2.5 corners 90.5% 89.2% — — 1.12
Universidad Católica over 3.5 corners 81.3% 81.0% — — 1.24
Universidad Católica over 4.5 corners 69.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Universidad Católica over 5.5 corners 57.0% 57.5% — — 1.74
Universidad Católica under 6.5 corners 55.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Universidad Católica over 6.5 corners 44.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Universidad Católica under 5.5 corners 43.0% 42.5% — — 2.35
Universidad Católica under 4.5 corners 30.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Universidad Católica under 3.5 corners 18.7% 19.0% — — 5.26
Universidad Católica under 2.5 corners 9.5% 10.8% — — 9.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 0.5 goals 94.4% 92.2% 78.5% 1.17× 1.08
Universidad Católica over 1.5 goals 78.2% 77.8% 47.1% 1.65× 1.29
Universidad Católica under 3.5 goals 67.5% 67.9% 91.0% 0.75× 1.47
Universidad Católica over 2.5 goals 54.9% 53.2% 21.0% 2.54× 1.88
Universidad Católica under 2.5 goals 45.1% 46.8% 79.0% 0.59× 2.14
Universidad Católica over 3.5 goals 32.5% 32.1% 9.0% 3.55× 3.12
Universidad Católica under 1.5 goals 21.8% 22.2% 52.9% 0.42× 4.50
Universidad Católica under 0.5 goals 5.6% 7.8% 21.5% 0.36× 12.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica over 0.5 in 1st half 71.0% 79.1% — — 1.26
Universidad Católica under 1.5 in 1st half 64.9% 64.5% — — 1.55
Universidad Católica over 1.5 in 1st half 35.1% 35.5% — — 2.82
Universidad Católica under 0.5 in 1st half 29.0% 20.9% — — 4.79
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica scores more in 2nd half 46.7% 47.3% — — 2.12
Universidad Católica scores more in 1st half 28.9% 27.9% — — 3.59
Universidad Católica scores equally in both 24.4% 21.0% — — 4.75
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato (home no bet) 50.9% 51.4% 58.6% 0.88× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 49.1% 48.6% 41.4% 1.17× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica even goals 50.2% 50.7% 54.4% 0.93× 1.97
Universidad Católica odd goals 49.8% 49.3% 45.6% 1.08× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 22.9% 24.4% — — 4.10
HT 0-0 18.2% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 2-0 14.1% 11.0% — — 9.09
Any other HT score 13.8% 11.0% — — 9.09
HT 1-1 10.2% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 0-1 8.5% 6.9% — — 14.53
HT 2-1 6.4% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 0-2 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.30
HT 2-2 1.5% 2.4% — — 42.32
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 51.2% 52.5% — — 1.90
Draw at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 18.9% 16.8% — — 5.96
Huachipato at HT / Huachipato at FT 6.6% 6.1% — — 16.51
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 5.9% 6.1% — — 16.53
Draw at HT / Huachipato at FT 5.2% 6.0% — — 16.54
Huachipato at HT / Universidad Católica at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.89
Universidad Católica at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% — — 28.90
Huachipato at HT / Draw at FT 3.2% 3.5% — — 28.92
Universidad Católica at HT / Huachipato at FT 1.4% 3.5% — — 28.99
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to score last 70.8% 72.6% — — 1.38
Huachipato to score last 28.4% 27.4% — — 3.65
No goal scored 0.8% 4.3% — — 23.31
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 99.2% 95.6% — — 1.05
Universidad Católica to lead by 1 at any time 84.6% 88.0% — — 1.14
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 70.1% 73.8% — — 1.36
Universidad Católica to lead by 2 at any time 61.2% 61.2% — — 1.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 40.5% 39.1% — — 2.56
Universidad Católica to lead by 3 at any time 38.2% 34.8% — — 2.87
Huachipato to lead by 1 at any time 33.8% 29.8% — — 3.36
Huachipato to lead by 2 at any time 9.6% 6.7% — — 14.94
Huachipato to lead by 3 at any time 2.4% 1.6% — — 62.95
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica most corners 71.3% 70.5% — — 1.42
Huachipato most corners 20.1% 25.8% — — 3.87
Corners level 8.6% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 78.9% 78.7% 70.0% 1.12× 1.27
1-5 goals 77.6% 78.7% 87.3% 0.90× 1.27
2-5 goals 68.3% 68.8% 64.4% 1.07× 1.45
3-6 goals 65.3% 68.8% 50.7% 1.36× 1.45
1-4 goals 61.8% 63.3% 81.2% 0.78× 1.58
3-5 goals 54.8% 53.2% 45.1% 1.18× 1.88
2-4 goals 52.6% 53.2% 58.3% 0.91× 1.88
4-6 goals 45.8% 48.4% 26.8% 1.81× 2.06
1-3 goals 42.3% 43.6% 66.3% 0.66× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.1% 39.2% 39.0% 1.00× 2.55
4-5 goals 35.3% 39.2% 21.2% 1.85× 2.55
2-3 goals 33.0% 35.2% 43.4% 0.81× 2.84
5-6 goals 26.3% 30.2% 12.0% 2.53× 3.31
1-2 goals 22.8% 24.5% 42.4% 0.58× 4.09
7+ goals 11.1% 14.8% 2.4% 6.07× 6.76
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica never behind 65.4% 68.8% — — 1.45
Huachipato never behind 14.6% 12.6% — — 7.97
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 48.0% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 52.0% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 51.4% 51.7% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 48.6% 48.3% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.2% 52.0% — — 1.92
Even goals in 2nd half 49.8% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 99.2% 95.4% 95.1% 1.00× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 90.0% 87.6% 72.2% 1.21× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 78.4% 77.3% 92.0% 0.84× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 76.4% 77.3% 52.9% 1.46× 1.29
Under 4.5 goals 62.6% 61.7% 85.9% 0.72× 1.62
Over 3.5 goals 56.9% 58.6% 29.0% 2.02× 1.71
Under 3.5 goals 43.1% 41.4% 71.0% 0.58× 2.42
Over 4.5 goals 37.4% 38.3% 14.1% 2.71× 2.61
Under 2.5 goals 23.6% 22.7% 47.1% 0.48× 4.40
Over 5.5 goals 21.6% 22.7% 8.0% 2.82× 4.40
Under 1.5 goals 10.0% 12.4% 27.8% 0.45× 8.07
Under 0.5 goals 0.8% 4.6% 4.9% 0.94× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 88.4% 86.7% 65.6% 1.32× 1.15
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 87.6% 86.7% 97.4% 0.89× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 74.3% 72.4% 91.4% 0.79× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.7% 72.3% 38.1% 1.90× 1.38
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 53.5% 51.9% 83.4% 0.62× 1.93
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 46.5% 48.1% 16.6% 2.90× 2.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.3% 27.7% 61.9% 0.45× 3.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 25.7% 27.6% 8.6% 3.22× 3.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 12.4% 13.3% 2.6% 5.13× 7.54
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 11.6% 13.3% 34.4% 0.38× 7.54
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half 81.8% 85.7% — — 1.17
Under 2.5 in 1st half 75.9% 78.0% — — 1.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half 50.3% 52.9% — — 1.89
Under 1.5 in 1st half 49.7% 47.1% — — 2.12
Over 2.5 in 1st half 24.1% 22.0% — — 4.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half 18.2% 14.3% — — 6.98
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 90.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 67.1% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 59.0% 55.3% — — 1.81
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 41.0% 44.7% — — 2.24
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 32.9% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 9.5% 10.1% — — 9.94
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato not to score in both halves 81.9% 84.3% — — 1.19
Universidad Católica to score in both halves 57.2% 58.0% — — 1.72
Universidad Católica not to score in both halves 42.8% 42.0% — — 2.38
Huachipato to score in both halves 18.1% 15.7% — — 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.2% 60.3% 52.0% 1.16× 1.66
Only Universidad Católica scores 31.2% 33.3% 26.8% 1.24× 3.01
Only Huachipato scores 4.8% 4.6% 16.8% 0.28× 21.53
Neither team scores 0.8% 4.6% 4.9% 0.95× 21.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
6 or more goals 21.6% 22.6% 8.0% 2.81× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 19.5% 17.5% 24.1% 0.72× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 19.6% 17.5% 15.1% 1.15× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 15.7% 17.5% 6.3% 2.75× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 13.5% 12.1% 19.5% 0.62× 8.25
Exactly 1 goals 9.2% 7.6% 23.2% 0.33× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 0.8% 4.5% 4.9% 0.92× 22.39
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 31.5% 35.6% — — 2.81
2 goals in 1st half 26.2% 28.6% — — 3.50
3+ goals in 1st half 24.1% 21.5% — — 4.65
No goals in 1st half 18.2% 15.7% — — 6.37
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 67.1% 61.6% — — 1.62
1 goal in 2nd half 23.5% 22.9% — — 4.36
No goals in 2nd half 9.5% 10.2% — — 9.80
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato not to win both halves 97.9% 97.3% — — 1.03
Universidad Católica not to win both halves 66.1% 69.4% — — 1.44
Universidad Católica to win both halves 33.9% 30.6% — — 3.26
Huachipato to win both halves 2.1% 2.7% — — 36.37
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica to win either half 83.1% 83.7% — — 1.20
Huachipato to win neither half 72.6% 73.1% — — 1.37
Huachipato to win either half 27.4% 26.9% — — 3.71
Universidad Católica to win neither half 16.9% 16.3% — — 6.14
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Huachipato not to win to nil 95.2% 96.1% 83.2% 1.16× 1.04
Universidad Católica not to win to nil 68.8% 69.7% 73.2% 0.95× 1.44
Universidad Católica to win to nil 31.2% 30.3% 26.8% 1.13× 3.30
Huachipato to win to nil 4.8% 3.9% 16.8% 0.23× 25.53
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad Católica by 3+ 33.4% 27.7% 10.5% 2.64× 3.61
Universidad Católica by 1 20.8% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Universidad Católica by 2 19.8% 17.1% 12.9% 1.32× 5.86
Draw 12.7% 11.8% 21.2% 0.55× 8.50
Huachipato by 1 8.8% 7.2% 20.0% 0.36× 13.90
Huachipato by 2 3.1% 2.7% 6.3% 0.43× 36.88
Huachipato by 3+ 1.2% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 36.93
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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