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Universidad de Concepción v O'Higgins — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Universidad de Concepción win
29.3%
model 33.0%
Draw
22.6%
model 21.9%
O'Higgins win
48.1%
model 45.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 12.6%
  2. 1-0 10.7%
  3. 1-1 10.3%
  4. 1-2 8.9%
  5. 0-2 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.548.5% Under 2.551.5%
BTTS yes50.6% BTTS no49.4%
Universidad de Concepción 1+69.2% Universidad de Concepción 2+32.9%
O'Higgins 1+76.2% O'Higgins 2+42.1%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.44. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
84/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
O'Higgins (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 51%
68.7% fair odds 1.46
strong signal · 1169 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Universidad de Concepción not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 73%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • O'Higgins carry the stronger rating, 1473 Elo against 1417.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

O'Higgins have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for Universidad de Concepción and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.18 for Universidad de Concepción and 1.44 for O'Higgins.

Why Universidad de Concepción

Nothing in the data singles out Universidad de Concepción.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why O'Higgins can win

O'Higgins carry the stronger rating, 1473 Elo against 1417.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Universidad de Concepción, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for O'Higgins, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Universidad de Concepción: 47% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. O'Higgins: 52% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

O'Higgins are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 84/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.18–1.44 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.00–1.32 0-1 15% 41% 44%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 46.1% 47.4% 30.0% 1.58× 2.11
Universidad de Concepción to win 30.5% 30.4% 49.0% 0.62× 3.29
Draw 23.4% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & not both score 29.1% 25.2% 16.8% 1.50× 3.97
Universidad de Concepción & not both score 19.1% 18.0% 26.8% 0.67× 5.56
O'Higgins & both teams score 17.1% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Universidad de Concepción & both teams score 11.5% 13.3% 22.4% 0.59× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.6% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins & under 3.5 36.0% 34.9% 23.4% 1.49× 2.87
O'Higgins & over 1.5 31.0% 30.7% 20.0% 1.54× 3.25
Universidad de Concepción & under 3.5 25.1% 26.1% 34.1% 0.76× 3.84
O'Higgins & under 2.5 23.6% 21.6% 13.7% 1.58× 4.63
O'Higgins & over 2.5 22.5% 21.6% 16.6% 1.30× 4.63
Universidad de Concepción & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 36.1% 0.50× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 18.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.56
Universidad de Concepción & under 2.5 16.9% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
O'Higgins & under 1.5 15.1% 18.0% 10.2% 1.76× 5.56
Universidad de Concepción & over 2.5 13.6% 12.8% 29.3% 0.44× 7.79
Universidad de Concepción & under 1.5 12.0% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
O'Higgins & over 3.5 10.2% 12.8% 6.8% 1.88× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 7.6% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
Universidad de Concepción & over 3.5 5.5% 7.9% 15.1% 0.52× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.8% 7.6% 0.64× 20.81
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.8% 7.6% 0.64× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (1UP) 58.8% 58.0% — — 1.73
Universidad de Concepción (1UP) 44.9% 38.8% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2UP) 46.1% 50.0% — — 2.00
Universidad de Concepción (2UP) 30.5% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to win 2nd half 38.2% 36.5% — — 2.74
2nd half drawn 37.0% 36.4% — — 2.75
Universidad de Concepción to win 2nd half 24.8% 24.4% — — 4.09
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.1% 84.0% — — 1.19
O'Higgins over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.8% 52.5% — — 1.90
O'Higgins under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.2% 47.5% — — 2.11
O'Higgins over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.9% 16.0% — — 6.27
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 in 2nd half 88.7% 88.9% — — 1.13
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 in 2nd half 56.4% 57.9% — — 1.73
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 in 2nd half 43.6% 42.1% — — 2.38
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 in 2nd half 11.3% 11.1% — — 9.03
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (+2.5) 97.1% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
O'Higgins (+1.5) 89.6% 88.5% 76.8% 1.15× 1.13
O'Higgins (+0.5) 69.5% 68.7% 51.0% 1.35× 1.46
Universidad de Concepción (+0.5) 53.9% 52.4% 70.0% 0.75× 1.91
O'Higgins (-0.5) 46.1% 47.6% 30.0% 1.59× 2.10
Universidad de Concepción (-0.5) 30.5% 31.3% 49.0% 0.64× 3.19
Universidad de Concepción (-1.5) 10.4% 11.5% 23.2% 0.50× 8.68
Universidad de Concepción (-2.5) 2.9% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 27.15
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to concede 63.4% 67.6% 78.5% 0.86× 1.48
O'Higgins clean sheet 36.6% 32.4% 21.5% 1.51× 3.09
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins clean sheet in 1st half 64.9% 64.7% — — 1.55
O'Higgins to concede in 1st half 35.1% 35.3% — — 2.84
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins clean sheet in 2nd half 56.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
O'Higgins to concede in 2nd half 43.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins over 2.5 corners 85.7% 85.2% — — 1.17
O'Higgins over 3.5 corners 73.5% 71.6% — — 1.40
O'Higgins under 6.5 corners 66.8% 67.6% — — 1.48
O'Higgins over 4.5 corners 59.5% 57.2% — — 1.75
O'Higgins under 5.5 corners 54.4% 53.1% — — 1.88
O'Higgins over 5.5 corners 45.6% 46.9% — — 2.13
O'Higgins under 4.5 corners 40.5% 42.8% — — 2.34
O'Higgins over 6.5 corners 33.2% 32.4% — — 3.09
O'Higgins under 3.5 corners 26.5% 28.4% — — 3.53
O'Higgins under 2.5 corners 14.3% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 3.5 goals 95.5% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
O'Higgins under 2.5 goals 85.2% 87.8% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
O'Higgins over 0.5 goals 73.4% 71.8% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
O'Higgins under 1.5 goals 61.9% 63.2% 68.5% 0.92× 1.58
O'Higgins over 1.5 goals 38.1% 36.8% 31.5% 1.17× 2.72
O'Higgins under 0.5 goals 26.6% 28.2% 31.5% 0.90× 3.55
O'Higgins over 2.5 goals 14.8% 12.2% 11.7% 1.04× 8.19
O'Higgins over 3.5 goals 4.5% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins under 1.5 in 1st half 90.1% 93.8% — — 1.07
O'Higgins under 0.5 in 1st half 58.9% 62.4% — — 1.60
O'Higgins over 0.5 in 1st half 41.1% 37.6% — — 2.66
O'Higgins over 1.5 in 1st half 9.9% 6.2% — — 16.25
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins scores equally in both 39.1% 37.4% — — 2.68
O'Higgins scores more in 2nd half 38.6% 37.4% — — 2.68
O'Higgins scores more in 1st half 22.4% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción (away no bet) 56.7% 57.3% 69.8% 0.82× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 43.4% 42.7% 30.2% 1.41× 2.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins even goals 53.5% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
O'Higgins odd goals 46.5% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.1% 91.1% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.9% 8.9% — — 11.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.6% 51.1% — — 1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals 46.4% 48.9% — — 2.04
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.7% 46.2% — — 2.17
O'Higgins to score 2+ in a row 31.6% 28.9% — — 3.46
Universidad de Concepción to score 2+ in a row 20.2% 19.5% — — 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.9% 12.2% — — 8.18
O'Higgins to score 3+ in a row 10.2% 12.1% — — 8.27
Universidad de Concepción to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 2.6% — — 38.05
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción corners (+3.5) 81.0% 79.8% — — 1.25
O'Higgins corners (+3.5) 80.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Universidad de Concepción corners (+2.5) 73.7% 70.8% — — 1.41
O'Higgins corners (+2.5) 73.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Universidad de Concepción corners (+1.5) 65.1% 65.9% — — 1.52
O'Higgins corners (+1.5) 64.2% 61.9% — — 1.62
Universidad de Concepción corners (-1.5) 35.8% 38.1% — — 2.62
O'Higgins corners (-1.5) 34.9% 34.1% — — 2.93
Universidad de Concepción corners (-2.5) 27.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
O'Higgins corners (-2.5) 26.3% 29.2% — — 3.42
Universidad de Concepción corners (-3.5) 19.6% 20.2% — — 4.94
O'Higgins corners (-3.5) 19.0% 20.2% — — 4.94
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 43.1% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 28.7% 31.2% — — 3.21
0-8 corners 28.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 80.2% 80.7% — — 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 71.7% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 65.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 62.3% 63.3% — — 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 57.0% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 52.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 47.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 37.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 12.5 corners 34.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 8.5 corners 28.3% 27.5% — — 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 19.8% 19.3% — — 5.17
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 15.1% 13.8% 10.2% 1.35× 7.24
1-0 12.0% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.71
1-1 10.8% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
0-2 8.5% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.51
1-2 8.6% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
0-0 7.6% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
2-1 6.5% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
2-0 4.9% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.29
0-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.29
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-0 1.6% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.31
3-1 2.2% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.31
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 1.5% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (2nd half DNB) 60.6% 62.7% — — 1.59
Universidad de Concepción (2nd half DNB) 39.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins leading at HT (DNB) 56.2% 55.4% — — 1.81
Universidad de Concepción leading at HT (DNB) 43.8% 44.6% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción or O'Higgins (12) 76.6% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
O'Higgins or draw (X2) 69.5% 69.6% 51.0% 1.37× 1.44
Universidad de Concepción or draw (1X) 53.9% 52.6% 70.0% 0.75× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw at HT 76.7% 79.6% — — 1.26
Universidad de Concepción or draw at HT 70.1% 74.4% — — 1.34
Universidad de Concepción or O'Higgins at HT 53.2% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw (1UP) 69.5% 76.5% — — 1.31
Universidad de Concepción or draw (1UP) 53.9% 58.8% — — 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins or draw in 2nd half 75.2% 75.6% — — 1.32
Universidad de Concepción or O'Higgins in 2nd half 63.0% 63.6% — — 1.57
Universidad de Concepción or draw in 2nd half 61.8% 63.5% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.8% 68.4% — — 1.46
Neither half drawn 31.2% 31.6% — — 3.16
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (DNB) 60.2% 62.6% 38.0% 1.65× 1.60
Universidad de Concepción (DNB) 39.8% 37.4% 62.0% 0.60× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score first 52.5% 53.3% — — 1.88
Universidad de Concepción to score first 39.9% 32.9% — — 3.04
No goal scored 7.6% 7.6% — — 13.20
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 55.7% 55.0% 48.0% 1.14× 1.82
Both teams to score 44.3% 45.0% 52.0% 0.87× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 48.1% 44.3% 38.0% 1.16× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.5% 34.6% 42.9% 0.81× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 10.8% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.6% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.9% 85.6% 84.6% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.1% 14.4% 15.4% 0.93× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.9% 75.1% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.1% 24.9% — — 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 66.3% 63.3% — — 1.58
Both score 2nd half only 19.7% 15.1% — — 6.63
Both score 1st half only 10.6% 10.7% — — 9.35
Both score in both halves 3.4% 4.9% — — 20.46
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.0% 84.7% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 14.0% 15.3% — — 6.55
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.1% 56.9% — — 1.76
A goal in each half 44.9% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 34.7% 30.8% 27.8% 1.11× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.6% 20.3% 26.8% 0.75× 4.94
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.46
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score exactly 1 35.2% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.79
O'Higgins to score exactly 0 26.6% 27.4% 31.5% 0.87× 3.64
O'Higgins to score exactly 2 23.3% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
O'Higgins to score 3+ 14.8% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.75
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.5% 31.7% 1.12× 2.81
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 0 36.6% 35.5% 21.5% 1.66× 2.81
Universidad de Concepción to score exactly 2 18.5% 18.8% 26.3% 0.71× 5.32
Universidad de Concepción to score 3+ 8.1% 10.4% 21.0% 0.49× 9.66
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.8% 51.4% — — 1.95
O'Higgins leading at HT 29.9% 25.6% — — 3.90
Universidad de Concepción leading at HT 23.3% 20.4% — — 4.90
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins -1: 1 53.9% 52.2% — — 1.92
O'Higgins -1: X 25.8% 26.5% — — 3.77
O'Higgins -1: 2 20.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (0:1) 69.5% 65.3% 51.0% 1.28× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 20.1% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Universidad de Concepción (0:1) 10.4% 13.7% 23.2% 0.59× 7.31
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (0:2) 89.6% 87.1% 76.8% 1.13× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 7.5% 7.7% 12.9% 0.59× 13.06
Universidad de Concepción (0:2) 2.9% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.73
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (0:3) 97.1% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.04
Universidad de Concepción (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (0:4) 99.3% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.91
Universidad de Concepción (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.96
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción (1:0) 53.9% 54.1% 70.0% 0.77× 1.85
Draw (1:0) 25.8% 25.0% 20.0% 1.25× 4.00
O'Higgins (1:0) 20.3% 21.7% 10.2% 2.12× 4.62
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción (2:0) 79.7% 80.5% 89.8% 0.90× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 13.0% 10.3% 6.3% 1.62× 9.71
O'Higgins (2:0) 7.3% 6.4% 4.1% 1.54× 15.66
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.0% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.2% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción to concede 73.4% 73.0% 68.5% 1.07× 1.37
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet 26.6% 27.0% 31.5% 0.86× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet in 1st half 58.9% 62.4% — — 1.60
Universidad de Concepción to concede in 1st half 41.1% 37.6% — — 2.66
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción to concede in 2nd half 54.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
Universidad de Concepción clean sheet in 2nd half 45.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción over 2.5 corners 86.0% 86.2% — — 1.16
Universidad de Concepción over 3.5 corners 74.0% 71.9% — — 1.39
Universidad de Concepción under 6.5 corners 66.2% 66.7% — — 1.50
Universidad de Concepción over 4.5 corners 60.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Universidad de Concepción under 5.5 corners 53.8% 52.6% — — 1.90
Universidad de Concepción over 5.5 corners 46.2% 47.4% — — 2.11
Universidad de Concepción under 4.5 corners 39.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Universidad de Concepción over 6.5 corners 33.8% 33.3% — — 3.00
Universidad de Concepción under 3.5 corners 26.0% 28.1% — — 3.56
Universidad de Concepción under 2.5 corners 14.0% 13.8% — — 7.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 3.5 goals 98.1% 96.4% 91.0% 1.06× 1.04
Universidad de Concepción under 2.5 goals 91.9% 92.2% 79.0% 1.17× 1.09
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 goals 73.4% 74.2% 52.9% 1.40× 1.35
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 goals 63.4% 63.6% 78.5% 0.81× 1.57
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 goals 36.6% 36.4% 21.5% 1.70× 2.75
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 goals 26.6% 25.8% 47.1% 0.55× 3.88
Universidad de Concepción over 2.5 goals 8.1% 7.8% 21.0% 0.37× 12.83
Universidad de Concepción over 3.5 goals 1.9% 3.6% 9.0% 0.40× 27.60
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 94.8% — — 1.06
Universidad de Concepción under 0.5 in 1st half 64.9% 64.5% — — 1.55
Universidad de Concepción over 0.5 in 1st half 35.1% 35.5% — — 2.82
Universidad de Concepción over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 5.2% — — 19.21
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción scores equally in both 46.3% 47.2% — — 2.12
Universidad de Concepción scores more in 2nd half 31.6% 33.2% — — 3.02
Universidad de Concepción scores more in 1st half 22.1% 21.0% — — 4.77
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins (home no bet) 66.4% 64.1% 58.6% 1.09× 1.56
Draw (home no bet) 33.6% 35.9% 41.4% 0.87× 2.79
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción even goals 56.7% 55.3% 54.4% 1.02× 1.81
Universidad de Concepción odd goals 43.3% 44.7% 45.6% 0.98× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.9% 38.7% — — 2.58
HT 0-1 20.6% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 1-0 16.9% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 8.4% 6.9% — — 14.53
HT 0-2 5.4% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 2-0 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
Any other HT score 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 1-2 2.3% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.30
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins at HT / O'Higgins at FT 24.6% 21.7% — — 4.61
Draw at HT / O'Higgins at FT 19.1% 16.8% — — 5.96
Universidad de Concepción at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT 16.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.0% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT 12.7% 12.7% — — 7.89
Universidad de Concepción at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% — — 28.87
O'Higgins at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.89
Universidad de Concepción at HT / O'Higgins at FT 2.4% 3.5% — — 28.95
O'Higgins at HT / Universidad de Concepción at FT 1.4% 3.5% — — 28.99
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins to score last 52.4% 52.1% — — 1.92
Universidad de Concepción to score last 40.0% 39.9% — — 2.51
No goal scored 7.6% 7.6% — — 13.20
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.4% 92.5% — — 1.08
O'Higgins to lead by 1 at any time 58.8% 54.9% — — 1.82
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 1 at any time 44.9% 39.3% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.0% 34.9% — — 2.87
O'Higgins to lead by 2 at any time 25.4% 25.2% — — 3.97
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 2 at any time 14.6% 10.6% — — 9.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.7% 10.6% — — 9.43
O'Higgins to lead by 3 at any time 8.8% 6.7% — — 14.98
Universidad de Concepción to lead by 3 at any time 3.9% 1.6% — — 61.53
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción most corners 45.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
O'Higgins most corners 44.6% 43.6% — — 2.30
Corners level 10.0% 8.4% — — 11.97
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.3% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 83.7% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 71.8% 72.3% 66.3% 1.09× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.4% 63.3% 70.0% 0.90× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.2% 63.3% 64.4% 0.98× 1.58
2-4 goals 56.7% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.3% 53.1% 42.4% 1.25× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-6 goals 40.1% 43.6% 50.7% 0.86× 2.29
3-5 goals 38.0% 39.2% 45.1% 0.87× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.4% 35.2% 39.0% 0.90× 2.84
4-6 goals 19.6% 18.8% 26.8% 0.70× 5.31
4-5 goals 17.5% 18.8% 21.2% 0.89× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.7% 8.9% 12.0% 0.74× 11.26
7+ goals 1.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.05× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins never behind 47.6% 56.7% — — 1.76
Universidad de Concepción never behind 33.7% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.6% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.4% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.8% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.2% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.9% 95.4% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 85.9% 1.07× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 79.4% 77.3% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 65.4% 66.3% 72.2% 0.92× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 58.9% 58.6% 47.1% 1.25× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 41.1% 41.4% 52.9% 0.78× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 34.7% 33.7% 27.8% 1.21× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 20.6% 22.7% 29.0% 0.78× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 14.1% 0.55× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 4.9% 1.59× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.1% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.7% 97.2% 91.4% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.1% 92.4% 83.4% 1.11× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.1% 72.4% 61.9% 1.17× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.3% 51.9% 65.6% 0.79× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 45.7% 48.1% 34.4% 1.40× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 25.9% 27.6% 38.1% 0.72× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.9% 7.6% 16.6% 0.46× 13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.3% 2.8% 8.6% 0.33× 35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.66
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.7% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.4% 78.0% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.6% 22.0% — — 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.3% 7.2% — — 13.93
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.2% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.1% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.9% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.8% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to score in both halves 84.7% 84.4% — — 1.19
O'Higgins not to score in both halves 77.5% 78.4% — — 1.28
O'Higgins to score in both halves 22.5% 21.6% — — 4.64
Universidad de Concepción to score in both halves 15.3% 15.6% — — 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 44.3% 46.6% 52.0% 0.90× 2.15
Only O'Higgins scores 29.1% 26.1% 16.8% 1.55× 3.83
Only Universidad de Concepción scores 19.1% 16.0% 26.8% 0.60× 6.23
Neither team scores 7.6% 7.1% 4.9% 1.46× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 27.1% 24.9% 23.2% 1.07× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 24.2% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.5% 22.6% 24.1% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.9% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 7.6% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 5.5% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.1% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 37.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 37.5% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.3% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 7.3% 7.2% — — 13.93
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 38.9% 40.1% — — 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 36.3% 39.7% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 24.8% 23.0% — — 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to win both halves 94.5% 94.2% — — 1.06
O'Higgins not to win both halves 88.9% 88.0% — — 1.14
O'Higgins to win both halves 11.1% 12.0% — — 8.34
Universidad de Concepción to win both halves 5.5% 5.8% — — 17.26
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción to win neither half 57.4% 59.0% — — 1.69
O'Higgins to win either half 57.1% 59.0% — — 1.69
O'Higgins to win neither half 42.9% 41.0% — — 2.44
Universidad de Concepción to win either half 42.6% 41.0% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universidad de Concepción not to win to nil 80.9% 83.1% 73.2% 1.14× 1.20
O'Higgins not to win to nil 70.9% 75.3% 83.2% 0.90× 1.33
O'Higgins to win to nil 29.1% 24.7% 16.8% 1.47× 4.04
Universidad de Concepción to win to nil 19.1% 16.9% 26.8% 0.63× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
O'Higgins by 1 25.8% 27.9% 20.0% 1.39× 3.59
Draw 23.4% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Universidad de Concepción by 1 20.1% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
O'Higgins by 2 13.0% 11.8% 6.3% 1.85× 8.50
Universidad de Concepción by 2 7.5% 7.2% 12.9% 0.56× 13.91
O'Higgins by 3+ 7.3% 7.2% 4.1% 1.73× 13.91
Universidad de Concepción by 3+ 2.9% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.88
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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