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Universitario v Sport Boys — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 27 October 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Universitario win
57.8%
model 57.5%
Draw
23.1%
model 23.7%
Sport Boys win
19.1%
model 18.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.8%
  2. 2-0 11.7%
  3. 1-1 11.0%
  4. 2-1 9.4%
  5. 0-0 8.3%

Goals

Over 2.543.9% Under 2.556.1%
BTTS yes43.9% BTTS no56.1%
Universitario 1+80.4% Universitario 2+48.5%
Sport Boys 1+55.2% Sport Boys 2+19.2%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.80. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 46%
56.3% fair odds 1.78
moderate signal · 1019 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Universitario or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
83.7% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 424 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Universitario carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1515.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Universitario have an estimated 57.8% win probability, against 23.1% for the draw and 19.1% for Sport Boys. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Universitario and 0.80 for Sport Boys.

Why Universitario

Universitario carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1515. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Sport Boys can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Universitario, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sport Boys, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Universitario: 47% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sport Boys: 49% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Universitario are the model's most likely outcome at 57.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.8%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.63–0.80 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.58–0.69 1-0 17% 39% 39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario to win 59.4% 54.0% 49.8% 1.08× 1.85
Draw 24.1% 24.5% 25.0% 0.98× 4.09
Sport Boys to win 16.5% 19.4% 25.4% 0.76× 5.16
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario & not both score 40.5% 40.0% 26.4% 1.51× 2.50
Universitario & both teams score 18.9% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 14.2% 13.3% 17.4% 0.76× 7.54
Sport Boys & not both score 10.7% 13.3% 12.3% 1.08× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.9% 8.3% 7.8% 1.07× 11.99
Sport Boys & both teams score 5.8% 8.3% 13.2% 0.63× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario & under 3.5 45.5% 45.0% 33.7% 1.34× 2.22
Universitario & over 1.5 42.5% 40.3% 38.0% 1.06× 2.48
Universitario & under 2.5 29.8% 26.1% 19.2% 1.36× 3.84
Universitario & over 2.5 29.6% 26.1% 30.8% 0.85× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 20.7% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Universitario & under 1.5 16.8% 18.0% 12.0% 1.51× 5.56
Universitario & over 3.5 13.9% 12.8% 16.3% 0.79× 7.79
Draw & over 1.5 14.2% 12.8% 17.4% 0.74× 7.79
Sport Boys & under 3.5 14.4% 12.8% 19.4% 0.66× 7.79
Sport Boys & under 2.5 10.0% 7.9% 11.1% 0.72× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 9.9% 7.9% 7.8% 1.02× 12.63
Sport Boys & over 1.5 8.9% 7.9% 17.4% 0.46× 12.63
Sport Boys & under 1.5 7.6% 7.9% 8.2% 0.97× 12.63
Sport Boys & over 2.5 6.5% 7.9% 14.5% 0.55× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 3.4% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.4% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
Sport Boys & over 3.5 2.1% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.83
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (1UP) 69.1% 70.4% — — 1.42
Sport Boys (1UP) 30.1% 32.6% — — 3.07
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (2UP) 59.4% 55.0% — — 1.82
Sport Boys (2UP) 16.5% 16.9% — — 5.93
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario to win 2nd half 46.1% 45.0% — — 2.22
2nd half drawn 37.6% 36.4% — — 2.74
Sport Boys to win 2nd half 16.3% 17.8% — — 5.63
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 1.5 in 2nd half 93.5% 91.9% — — 1.09
Sport Boys under 0.5 in 2nd half 66.3% 69.5% — — 1.44
Sport Boys over 0.5 in 2nd half 33.7% 30.5% — — 3.28
Sport Boys over 1.5 in 2nd half 6.5% 8.1% — — 12.34
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario under 1.5 in 2nd half 77.2% 75.3% — — 1.33
Universitario over 0.5 in 2nd half 59.4% 58.1% — — 1.72
Universitario under 0.5 in 2nd half 40.6% 41.9% — — 2.39
Universitario over 1.5 in 2nd half 22.8% 24.7% — — 4.04
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (+2.5) 86.4% 88.5% 88.6% 1.00× 1.13
Universitario (+0.5) 83.5% 82.6% 74.6% 1.11× 1.21
Sport Boys (+1.5) 68.1% 68.7% 75.4% 0.91× 1.46
Universitario (-0.5) 59.4% 57.1% 49.8% 1.15× 1.75
Sport Boys (+0.5) 40.6% 42.9% 50.2% 0.86× 2.33
Universitario (-1.5) 31.9% 31.3% 24.6% 1.27× 3.19
Sport Boys (-0.5) 16.5% 17.4% 25.4% 0.69× 5.74
Universitario (-2.5) 13.6% 11.5% 11.4% 1.01× 8.66
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to concede 79.4% 78.8% 80.1% 0.98× 1.27
Sport Boys clean sheet 20.6% 21.2% 19.9% 1.06× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys clean sheet in 1st half 50.7% 50.8% — — 1.97
Sport Boys to concede in 1st half 49.3% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to concede in 2nd half 59.4% 57.4% — — 1.74
Sport Boys clean sheet in 2nd half 40.6% 42.6% — — 2.35
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 6.5 corners 94.5% 89.9% — — 1.11
Sport Boys under 5.5 corners 89.1% 85.2% — — 1.17
Sport Boys under 4.5 corners 79.7% 76.1% — — 1.32
Sport Boys under 3.5 corners 65.2% 67.6% — — 1.48
Sport Boys over 2.5 corners 54.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
Sport Boys under 2.5 corners 45.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Sport Boys over 3.5 corners 34.8% 32.4% — — 3.09
Sport Boys over 4.5 corners 20.3% 23.9% — — 4.18
Sport Boys over 5.5 corners 10.9% 14.8% — — 6.78
Sport Boys over 6.5 corners 5.5% 10.1% — — 9.92
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.5% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Sport Boys under 2.5 goals 96.8% 97.5% 92.0% 1.06× 1.03
Sport Boys under 1.5 goals 84.9% 81.5% 71.6% 1.14× 1.23
Sport Boys under 0.5 goals 50.4% 53.5% 34.1% 1.57× 1.87
Sport Boys over 0.5 goals 49.6% 46.5% 65.9% 0.71× 2.15
Sport Boys over 1.5 goals 15.1% 18.5% 28.4% 0.65× 5.41
Sport Boys over 2.5 goals 3.2% 2.5% 8.0% 0.32× 39.80
Sport Boys over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.99× 39.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys under 1.5 in 1st half 96.9% 96.2% — — 1.04
Sport Boys under 0.5 in 1st half 76.0% 74.8% — — 1.34
Sport Boys over 0.5 in 1st half 24.0% 25.2% — — 3.98
Sport Boys over 1.5 in 1st half 3.1% 3.8% — — 26.13
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys scores equally in both 56.2% 52.8% — — 1.89
Sport Boys scores more in 2nd half 27.0% 26.5% — — 3.78
Sport Boys scores more in 1st half 16.8% 18.0% — — 5.57
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (away no bet) 71.1% 68.3% 66.6% 1.03× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 28.9% 31.7% 33.4% 0.95× 3.16
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys even goals 62.7% 59.1% 56.9% 1.04× 1.69
Sport Boys odd goals 37.3% 40.9% 43.1% 0.95× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.7% 91.3% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.3% 8.7% — — 11.44
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 52.9% 50.9% — — 1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals 47.1% 49.1% — — 2.04
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 49.4% 46.3% — — 2.16
Universitario to score 2+ in a row 41.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.2% 16.2% — — 6.19
Universitario to score 3+ in a row 16.6% 16.1% — — 6.20
Sport Boys to score 2+ in a row 10.5% 12.1% — — 8.26
Sport Boys to score 3+ in a row 1.7% 2.5% — — 39.92
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario corners (+3.5) 96.9% 95.7% — — 1.04
Universitario corners (+2.5) 94.2% 89.6% — — 1.12
Universitario corners (+1.5) 89.7% 84.5% — — 1.18
Universitario corners (-1.5) 63.9% 61.9% — — 1.62
Sport Boys corners (+3.5) 58.6% 57.2% — — 1.75
Universitario corners (-2.5) 52.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
Sport Boys corners (+2.5) 47.4% 47.6% — — 2.10
Universitario corners (-3.5) 41.4% 42.8% — — 2.33
Sport Boys corners (+1.5) 36.1% 38.1% — — 2.62
Sport Boys corners (-1.5) 10.3% 15.5% — — 6.45
Sport Boys corners (-2.5) 5.8% 10.4% — — 9.60
Sport Boys corners (-3.5) 3.1% 4.3% — — 23.49
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 49.6% 41.8% — — 2.40
9-11 corners 28.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 22.3% 25.7% — — 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.1% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 77.7% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 69.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 61.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 60.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 50.4% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 49.6% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 39.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 38.4% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 10.5 corners 30.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 22.3% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 15.9% 19.3% — — 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 16.8% 13.8% 12.0% 1.16× 7.23
2-0 13.0% 11.5% 7.4% 1.55× 8.71
1-1 10.8% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.72
0-0 9.9% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.51
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.51
0-1 7.6% 7.4% 8.2% 0.91× 13.51
3-0 6.8% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.51
0-2 2.4% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
0-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.32
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.16× 58.32
1-2 3.8% 1.7% 7.6% 0.23× 58.30
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.31
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.32
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-1 4.7% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.29
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.37× 58.32
4-0 2.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.30
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.31
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.73× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 9.47× 58.32
Any other score 2.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (2nd half DNB) 73.8% 71.7% — — 1.40
Sport Boys (2nd half DNB) 26.2% 28.3% — — 3.53
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario leading at HT (DNB) 75.4% 74.8% — — 1.34
Sport Boys leading at HT (DNB) 24.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario or draw (1X) 83.5% 80.6% 74.6% 1.08× 1.24
Universitario or Sport Boys (12) 75.9% 75.5% 75.0% 1.01× 1.32
Sport Boys or draw (X2) 40.6% 46.0% 50.2% 0.92× 2.17
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario or draw at HT 86.7% 88.2% — — 1.13
Sport Boys or draw at HT 59.2% 57.5% — — 1.74
Universitario or Sport Boys at HT 54.1% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario or draw (1UP) 83.5% 88.9% — — 1.13
Sport Boys or draw (1UP) 40.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario or draw in 2nd half 83.7% 82.2% — — 1.22
Universitario or Sport Boys in 2nd half 62.4% 63.6% — — 1.57
Sport Boys or draw in 2nd half 53.9% 55.0% — — 1.82
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 66.7% 68.1% — — 1.47
Neither half drawn 33.3% 31.9% — — 3.14
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (DNB) 78.3% 74.8% 66.3% 1.13× 1.34
Sport Boys (DNB) 21.7% 25.2% 33.7% 0.75× 3.96
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario to score first 62.8% 63.9% — — 1.56
Sport Boys to score first 27.2% 27.8% — — 3.59
No goal scored 9.9% 7.7% — — 13.07
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 61.1% 56.6% 46.2% 1.23× 1.77
Both teams to score 38.9% 43.4% 53.8% 0.81× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 49.7% 44.3% 37.7% 1.18× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 28.2% 33.3% 42.8% 0.78× 3.00
Not both score & over 2.5 11.3% 12.4% 8.7% 1.42× 8.09
Both score & under 2.5 10.8% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.9% 89.0% 85.7% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.1% 11.0% 14.3% 0.77× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.1% 72.1% — — 1.39
Both teams to score in 2nd half 19.9% 27.9% — — 3.59
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.8% 67.5% — — 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.5% 15.0% — — 6.68
Both score 1st half only 9.4% 6.8% — — 14.64
Both score in both halves 2.4% 4.8% — — 20.69
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.3% 85.1% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 11.7% 14.9% — — 6.69
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.3% 56.9% — — 1.76
A goal in each half 44.7% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.2% 44.2% 1.07× 2.12
0-1 goals 34.3% 30.8% 27.5% 1.12× 3.25
4-6 goals 18.5% 20.2% 26.8% 0.75× 4.94
7+ goals 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.01× 54.48
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to score exactly 0 50.4% 47.0% 34.1% 1.38× 2.13
Sport Boys to score exactly 1 34.5% 33.8% 37.7% 0.90× 2.96
Sport Boys to score exactly 2 11.8% 12.9% 20.7% 0.62× 7.76
Sport Boys to score 3+ 3.2% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.86
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario to score exactly 1 32.5% 32.6% 33.0% 0.99× 3.07
Universitario to score exactly 2 25.7% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
Universitario to score 3+ 21.2% 23.3% 22.5% 1.04× 4.30
Universitario to score exactly 0 20.6% 23.3% 19.9% 1.17× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.9% 51.4% — — 1.95
Universitario leading at HT 40.8% 42.5% — — 2.35
Sport Boys leading at HT 13.3% 11.8% — — 8.47
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario -1: 2 40.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Universitario -1: 1 31.9% 30.1% — — 3.33
Universitario -1: X 27.5% 26.5% — — 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (0:1) 40.6% 42.6% 50.2% 0.85× 2.35
Universitario (0:1) 31.9% 30.1% 24.6% 1.22× 3.32
Draw (0:1) 27.5% 27.0% 25.4% 1.07× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (0:2) 68.1% 72.3% 75.4% 0.96× 1.38
Draw (0:2) 18.3% 15.3% 13.4% 1.14× 6.55
Universitario (0:2) 13.6% 11.0% 11.4% 0.96× 9.09
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (0:3) 86.4% 90.6% 88.6% 1.02× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 8.9% 5.8% 7.6% 0.76× 17.22
Universitario (0:3) 4.7% 2.4% 4.0% 0.60× 41.93
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys (0:4) 95.3% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 81.60
Universitario (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 81.82
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (1:0) 83.5% 81.5% 74.6% 1.09× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 12.2% 12.7% 17.9% 0.71× 7.87
Sport Boys (1:0) 4.3% 3.3% 7.6% 0.43× 30.46
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario (2:0) 95.7% 96.8% 92.4% 1.05× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.4% 2.3% 5.6% 0.41× 43.71
Sport Boys (2:0) 0.9% 2.3% 2.2% 1.05× 43.87
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.2% 48.5% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 27.4% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario clean sheet 50.4% 53.1% 34.1% 1.56× 1.88
Universitario to concede 49.6% 46.9% 65.9% 0.71× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario clean sheet in 1st half 76.0% 77.2% — — 1.30
Universitario to concede in 1st half 24.0% 22.8% — — 4.39
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario clean sheet in 2nd half 66.3% 66.6% — — 1.50
Universitario to concede in 2nd half 33.7% 33.4% — — 3.00
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario over 2.5 corners 87.8% 86.2% — — 1.16
Universitario over 3.5 corners 76.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Universitario over 4.5 corners 63.8% 62.3% — — 1.61
Universitario under 6.5 corners 62.2% 62.3% — — 1.61
Universitario over 5.5 corners 50.3% 52.6% — — 1.90
Universitario under 5.5 corners 49.7% 47.4% — — 2.11
Universitario over 6.5 corners 37.8% 37.7% — — 2.65
Universitario under 4.5 corners 36.2% 37.7% — — 2.65
Universitario under 3.5 corners 23.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Universitario under 2.5 corners 12.2% 13.8% — — 7.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario under 3.5 goals 92.4% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
Universitario over 0.5 goals 79.4% 77.8% 80.1% 0.97× 1.29
Universitario under 2.5 goals 78.8% 77.8% 77.5% 1.00× 1.29
Universitario under 1.5 goals 53.1% 53.2% 52.7% 1.01× 1.88
Universitario over 1.5 goals 46.9% 46.8% 47.3% 0.99× 2.14
Universitario over 2.5 goals 21.2% 22.2% 22.5% 0.99× 4.50
Universitario under 0.5 goals 20.6% 22.2% 19.9% 1.12× 4.50
Universitario over 3.5 goals 7.6% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario under 1.5 in 1st half 85.1% 90.0% — — 1.11
Universitario under 0.5 in 1st half 50.7% 50.6% — — 1.98
Universitario over 0.5 in 1st half 49.3% 49.4% — — 2.02
Universitario over 1.5 in 1st half 14.9% 10.0% — — 9.97
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario scores more in 2nd half 38.7% 38.1% — — 2.62
Universitario scores equally in both 35.3% 38.1% — — 2.63
Universitario scores more in 1st half 26.0% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.5% 56.4% 49.6% 1.14× 1.77
Sport Boys (home no bet) 40.5% 43.6% 50.4% 0.87× 2.30
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario even goals 52.1% 50.8% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
Universitario odd goals 47.9% 49.2% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 38.4% 38.8% — — 2.58
HT 1-0 26.3% 28.4% — — 3.52
HT 0-1 10.6% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 8.9% 6.9% — — 14.52
HT 1-1 7.1% 6.9% — — 14.55
Any other HT score 3.4% 2.4% — — 42.20
HT 2-1 2.4% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 0-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.36
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.40
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario at HT / Universitario at FT 36.0% 41.2% — — 2.43
Draw at HT / Universitario at FT 21.4% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.8% 16.8% — — 5.97
Sport Boys at HT / Sport Boys at FT 7.9% 6.1% — — 16.47
Draw at HT / Sport Boys at FT 7.7% 6.1% — — 16.47
Universitario at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.89
Sport Boys at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% — — 28.91
Sport Boys at HT / Universitario at FT 2.0% 3.5% — — 28.96
Universitario at HT / Sport Boys at FT 0.9% 3.4% — — 29.01
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario to score last 62.8% 62.1% — — 1.61
Sport Boys to score last 27.3% 27.3% — — 3.67
No goal scored 9.9% 7.7% — — 13.07
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.1% 92.5% — — 1.08
Universitario to lead by 1 at any time 69.1% 69.4% — — 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.3% 39.2% — — 2.55
Universitario to lead by 2 at any time 36.5% 34.8% — — 2.88
Sport Boys to lead by 1 at any time 30.1% 29.6% — — 3.37
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.5% 14.8% — — 6.75
Universitario to lead by 3 at any time 15.2% 14.8% — — 6.76
Sport Boys to lead by 2 at any time 6.9% 6.6% — — 15.07
Sport Boys to lead by 3 at any time 1.2% 1.6% — — 64.06
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario most corners 74.4% 70.6% — — 1.42
Sport Boys most corners 16.8% 19.2% — — 5.20
Corners level 8.7% 8.3% — — 11.98
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.1% 83.4% 78.1% 1.07× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.7% 72.3% 63.9% 1.13× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.8% 63.3% 70.8% 0.89× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.9% 63.3% 67.4% 0.94× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.7% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.6% 53.1% 41.1% 1.29× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.4% 44.2% 1.10× 2.06
3-6 goals 38.6% 39.2% 49.6% 0.79× 2.55
3-5 goals 36.7% 39.2% 46.2% 0.85× 2.55
3-4 goals 31.5% 35.2% 37.1% 0.95× 2.84
4-6 goals 18.5% 18.8% 26.8% 0.70× 5.31
4-5 goals 16.6% 18.8% 23.4% 0.81× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.1% 8.9% 12.7% 0.70× 11.26
7+ goals 0.9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.41× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario never behind 60.0% 67.9% — — 1.47
Sport Boys never behind 21.0% 25.0% — — 4.00
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.3% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 42.7% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.7% 48.0% — — 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.2% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 85.7% 1.08× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 90.1% 92.3% 92.2% 1.00× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 80.6% 82.3% 71.6% 1.15× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 65.7% 66.3% 72.5% 0.92× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 60.5% 61.7% 48.7% 1.27× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 39.5% 38.3% 51.3% 0.75× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 34.3% 33.7% 27.5% 1.22× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 19.4% 17.7% 28.4% 0.62× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 9.9% 7.7% 7.8% 0.99× 12.92
Over 4.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 14.3% 0.54× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 2.8% 4.6% 5.3% 0.87× 21.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.1% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.0% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.0% 92.4% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 75.7% 75.9% 63.1% 1.20× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.5% 51.9% 65.1% 0.80× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.5% 48.1% 34.9% 1.38× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 24.3% 24.1% 36.9% 0.65× 4.14
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.0% 7.6% 16.7% 0.46× 13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.0% 2.8% 5.8% 0.49× 35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.9% 2.8% 1.9% 1.49× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.8% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.4% 78.0% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 61.6% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 38.4% 36.8% — — 2.71
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.6% 22.0% — — 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.2% 7.2% — — 13.94
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 85.4% 85.3% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 73.2% 77.7% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 62.4% 61.5% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 37.6% 38.5% — — 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 26.8% 22.3% — — 4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 14.6% 14.7% — — 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys not to score in both halves 91.9% 90.5% — — 1.11
Universitario not to score in both halves 70.7% 73.8% — — 1.36
Universitario to score in both halves 29.3% 26.2% — — 3.81
Sport Boys to score in both halves 8.1% 9.5% — — 10.47
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Universitario scores 40.5% 46.6% 26.4% 1.76× 2.15
Both teams score 38.9% 39.9% 53.8% 0.74× 2.51
Only Sport Boys scores 10.7% 11.0% 12.3% 0.89× 9.07
Neither team scores 9.9% 7.2% 7.8% 0.92× 13.98
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.2% 24.9% 21.4% 1.16× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 24.4% 22.6% 19.9% 1.13× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.1% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.4% 12.1% 14.3% 0.85× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 9.9% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 5.2% 7.6% 9.2% 0.82× 13.15
6 or more goals 2.8% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.36
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 38.4% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 36.9% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.4% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 7.2% 7.2% — — 13.94
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 37.6% 39.9% — — 2.51
1 goal in 2nd half 35.6% 39.6% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 26.8% 29.1% — — 3.44
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys not to win both halves 97.9% 97.2% — — 1.03
Universitario not to win both halves 81.3% 83.4% — — 1.20
Universitario to win both halves 18.7% 16.6% — — 6.02
Sport Boys to win both halves 2.1% 2.8% — — 36.35
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys to win neither half 72.5% 73.0% — — 1.37
Universitario to win either half 68.2% 67.9% — — 1.47
Universitario to win neither half 31.8% 32.1% — — 3.12
Sport Boys to win either half 27.5% 27.0% — — 3.71
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sport Boys not to win to nil 89.3% 88.1% 87.7% 1.01× 1.14
Universitario not to win to nil 59.5% 59.2% 73.6% 0.80× 1.69
Universitario to win to nil 40.5% 40.8% 26.4% 1.54× 2.45
Sport Boys to win to nil 10.7% 11.9% 12.3% 0.96× 8.43
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Universitario by 1 27.5% 27.9% 25.4% 1.10× 3.59
Draw 24.1% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
Universitario by 2 18.3% 17.1% 13.4% 1.27× 5.87
Universitario by 3+ 13.6% 11.8% 11.4% 1.03× 8.50
Sport Boys by 1 12.2% 11.8% 17.9% 0.66× 8.51
Sport Boys by 2 3.4% 2.7% 5.6% 0.48× 36.86
Sport Boys by 3+ 0.9% 2.7% 2.2% 1.25× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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