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Urartu v Noah — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ARM-Premier League · 2627

ARM-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

v

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Urartu win
20.9%
Draw
24.4%
Noah win
54.8%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.6%
  2. 1-2 9.9%
  3. 0-1 9.7%
  4. 0-2 9.4%
  5. 0-0 6.4%

Goals

Over 2.554.6% Under 2.545.4%
BTTS yes55.0% BTTS no45.0%
Urartu 1+64.8% Urartu 2+28.1%
Noah 1+83.8% Noah 2+54.3%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
20/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Noah to win
1X2 · usually 31%
58.3% fair odds 1.72
strong signal · 3259 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Noah or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT · usually 66%
83.8% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 975 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Noah have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Urartu have allowed 1.35.
  • Away from home Noah average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Urartu have only 0 matches on record.
  • Noah have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Noah have an estimated 54.8% win probability, against 24.4% for the draw and 20.8% for Urartu. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.04 for Urartu and 1.82 for Noah.

Why Urartu

Urartu have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Noah have allowed 1.35. At home Urartu average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 24.4%.

Why Noah can win

Noah have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Urartu have allowed 1.35. Away from home Noah average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Urartu, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Noah, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Urartu: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Noah: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Noah are the model's most likely outcome at 54.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.03–1.96 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.96–1.79 1-1 12% 52% 52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to win 58.3% 58.3% 30.6% 1.90× 1.72
Draw 22.9% 23.6% 25.0% 0.95× 4.23
Urartu to win 18.7% 17.9% 44.4% 0.40× 5.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah & not both score 29.9% 26.5% 16.0% 1.66× 3.78
Noah & both teams score 28.4% 26.5% 14.6% 1.81× 3.78
Draw & both teams score 17.3% 18.1% 17.7% 1.03× 5.52
Urartu & both teams score 10.4% 12.7% 20.1% 0.63× 7.88
Urartu & not both score 8.4% 7.6% 24.4% 0.31× 13.07
Draw & not both score 5.7% 7.6% 7.3% 1.05× 13.08
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah & over 1.5 49.2% 46.3% 23.1% 2.01× 2.16
Noah & over 2.5 39.5% 36.6% 18.4% 1.99× 2.74
Noah & under 3.5 35.0% 36.5% 21.6% 1.69× 2.74
Noah & over 3.5 23.3% 21.8% 9.0% 2.43× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 17.3% 17.7% 17.7% 1.00× 5.64
Draw & under 2.5 16.5% 17.7% 18.8% 0.94× 5.64
Draw & under 3.5 16.5% 17.7% 18.8% 0.94× 5.64
Noah & under 2.5 18.8% 17.7% 12.2% 1.45× 5.64
Urartu & over 1.5 14.2% 12.4% 34.1% 0.36× 8.05
Urartu & over 2.5 11.6% 12.4% 26.9% 0.46× 8.06
Urartu & under 3.5 13.3% 12.4% 30.3% 0.41× 8.06
Urartu & under 2.5 7.2% 7.6% 17.5% 0.43× 13.21
Draw & over 2.5 6.5% 7.6% 6.2% 1.22× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 6.5% 7.6% 6.2% 1.22× 13.21
Noah & under 1.5 9.1% 7.6% 7.5% 1.01× 13.20
Urartu & over 3.5 5.4% 7.6% 14.2% 0.53× 13.21
Draw & under 1.5 5.7% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.21
Urartu & under 1.5 4.5% 4.4% 10.4% 0.42× 22.79
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (1UP) 71.8% 76.8% 50.4% 1.52× 1.30
Urartu (1UP) 37.6% 38.4% 59.8% 0.64× 2.60
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (2UP) 58.3% 59.7% 34.2% 1.75× 1.67
Urartu (2UP) 18.7% 19.8% 45.2% 0.44× 5.05
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to win 2nd half 50.1% 48.6% 29.7% 1.64× 2.06
2nd half drawn 31.6% 32.8% 32.7% 1.00× 3.05
Urartu to win 2nd half 18.3% 20.2% 37.7% 0.54× 4.95
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (+2.5) 98.1% 96.6% 90.1% 1.07× 1.04
Noah (+1.5) 93.1% 92.3% 77.7% 1.19× 1.08
Noah (+0.5) 81.3% 83.2% 55.6% 1.50× 1.20
Noah (-0.5) 58.3% 58.3% 30.6% 1.91× 1.71
Urartu (+0.5) 41.7% 41.7% 69.4% 0.60× 2.40
Urartu (-0.5) 18.7% 16.8% 44.4% 0.38× 5.95
Urartu (-1.5) 6.9% 7.7% 22.3% 0.35× 12.98
Urartu (-2.5) 1.9% 3.4% 9.9% 0.34× 29.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to concede 64.4% 65.0% 76.7% 0.85× 1.54
Noah clean sheet 35.6% 35.0% 23.3% 1.51× 2.85
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah clean sheet in 1st half 64.1% 62.8% 51.8% 1.21× 1.59
Noah to concede in 1st half 35.9% 37.2% 48.2% 0.77× 2.69
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah under 3.5 goals 86.4% 87.1% 95.7% 0.91× 1.15
Noah over 0.5 goals 86.0% 87.1% 68.3% 1.28× 1.15
Noah under 2.5 goals 68.7% 67.5% 87.0% 0.78× 1.48
Noah over 1.5 goals 58.4% 58.9% 33.7% 1.75× 1.70
Noah under 1.5 goals 41.6% 41.1% 66.3% 0.62× 2.43
Noah over 2.5 goals 31.3% 32.5% 13.0% 2.51× 3.08
Noah under 0.5 goals 14.0% 12.9% 31.7% 0.41× 7.76
Noah over 3.5 goals 13.6% 12.9% 4.3% 2.97× 7.76
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah under 1.5 in 1st half 81.4% 83.0% 89.4% 0.93× 1.21
Noah over 0.5 in 1st half 54.4% 55.1% 41.0% 1.34× 1.81
Noah under 0.5 in 1st half 45.6% 44.9% 59.0% 0.76× 2.23
Noah over 1.5 in 1st half 18.6% 17.0% 10.6% 1.60× 5.89
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 55.1% 58.6% 36.0% 1.63× 1.71
Urartu (away no bet) 44.9% 41.4% 64.0% 0.65× 2.42
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah even goals 51.0% 53.6% 55.7% 0.96× 1.87
Noah odd goals 49.0% 46.4% 44.3% 1.05× 2.16
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.7% 82.3% 82.7% 1.00× 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.3% 17.7% 17.3% 1.02× 5.66
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 69.5% 66.9% 66.2% 1.01× 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 30.5% 33.1% 33.8% 0.98× 3.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.5% 60.3% 58.6% 1.03× 1.66
Noah to score 2+ in a row 50.3% 51.3% 28.6% 1.79× 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.4% 26.7% 22.9% 1.17× 3.75
Noah to score 3+ in a row 22.5% 21.7% 9.1% 2.39× 4.60
Urartu to score 2+ in a row 18.8% 17.0% 36.9% 0.46× 5.87
Urartu to score 3+ in a row 4.1% 3.2% 14.2% 0.22× 31.70
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.8% 11.2% 11.5% 0.98× 8.91
1-2 10.0% 7.4% 7.0% 1.06× 13.45
0-0 5.7% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.45
0-1 9.1% 7.4% 7.5% 0.99× 13.45
0-2 9.6% 7.4% 4.7% 1.58× 13.45
0-3 6.3% 7.4% 2.3% 3.20× 13.45
1-3 6.5% 7.4% 2.8% 2.69× 13.45
2-1 5.2% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.45
Any other score 5.3% 7.4% 4.1% 1.83× 13.45
2-2 5.1% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.45
0-4 3.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.93× 58.34
1-0 4.5% 1.7% 10.4% 0.17× 58.34
1-4 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.69× 58.34
2-0 2.7% 1.7% 7.2% 0.24× 58.34
2-3 3.4% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.34
2-4 1.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.89× 58.34
3-0 0.9% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.35
3-1 1.8% 1.7% 4.2% 0.41× 58.34
3-2 1.8% 1.7% 2.6% 0.66× 58.34
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.72× 58.34
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.65× 58.35
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.98× 58.35
4-1 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.35
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.87× 58.35
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.62× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 16.16× 58.35
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah leading at HT (DNB) 68.0% 71.5% 43.3% 1.65× 1.40
Urartu leading at HT (DNB) 32.0% 28.5% 56.7% 0.50× 3.51
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah or draw (X2) 81.3% 82.1% 55.6% 1.48× 1.22
Urartu or Noah (12) 77.1% 76.4% 75.0% 1.02× 1.31
Urartu or draw (1X) 41.7% 41.7% 69.4% 0.60× 2.40
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah or draw at HT 81.0% 83.8% 66.2% 1.27× 1.19
Urartu or draw at HT 59.6% 57.2% 74.1% 0.77× 1.75
Urartu or Noah at HT 59.4% 57.2% 59.7% 0.96× 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah or draw (1UP) 81.3% 86.1% 63.9% 1.35× 1.16
Urartu or draw (1UP) 41.7% 50.4% 74.2% 0.68× 1.98
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah or draw in 2nd half 81.7% 79.8% 62.3% 1.28× 1.25
Urartu or Noah in 2nd half 68.4% 67.2% 67.3% 1.00× 1.49
Urartu or draw in 2nd half 49.9% 51.4% 70.3% 0.73× 1.95
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.6% 54.8% 58.9% 0.93× 1.83
Neither half drawn 41.4% 45.2% 41.1% 1.10× 2.21
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (DNB) 75.7% 77.3% 40.8% 1.90× 1.29
Urartu (DNB) 24.3% 22.7% 59.2% 0.38× 4.41
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to score first 61.8% 64.1% 42.9% 1.49× 1.56
Urartu to score first 32.5% 31.6% 51.2% 0.62× 3.16
No goal scored 5.7% 6.4% 5.9% 1.08× 15.74
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.0% 55.3% 52.4% 1.06× 1.81
Not both teams to score 44.0% 44.7% 47.6% 0.94× 2.24
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 45.2% 45.1% 40.9% 1.10× 2.22
Not both score & under 2.5 31.6% 34.0% 37.1% 0.92× 2.94
Not both score & over 2.5 12.4% 11.9% 10.6% 1.12× 8.41
Both score & under 2.5 10.8% 11.9% 11.5% 1.04× 8.41
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.9% 83.0% 86.0% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.1% 17.0% 14.0% 1.21× 5.89
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.0% 69.4% 70.2% 0.99× 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.0% 30.6% 29.8% 1.03× 3.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.4% 57.8% 57.8% 1.00× 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 25.0% 25.8% 23.8% 1.08× 3.88
Both score 1st half only 13.6% 11.9% 12.5% 0.95× 8.41
Both score in both halves 6.0% 6.9% 6.0% 1.14× 14.54
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.4% 82.6% 81.5% 1.01× 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 19.6% 17.4% 18.5% 0.94× 5.75
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 59.0% 57.5% 58.9% 0.98× 1.74
A half without a goal 41.0% 42.5% 41.1% 1.04× 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.5% 46.5% 45.4% 1.02× 2.15
4-6 goals 31.9% 31.2% 27.0% 1.16× 3.21
0-1 goals 19.3% 19.1% 25.2% 0.76× 5.24
7+ goals 3.3% 2.0% 2.4% 0.83× 49.71
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to score 3+ 31.3% 32.3% 13.0% 2.49× 3.09
Noah to score exactly 1 27.6% 27.4% 34.6% 0.79× 3.65
Noah to score exactly 2 27.1% 27.4% 20.8% 1.32× 3.65
Noah to score exactly 0 14.0% 13.0% 31.7% 0.41× 7.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.6% 33.1% 1.11× 2.73
Urartu to score exactly 0 35.6% 36.6% 23.3% 1.57× 2.73
Urartu to score exactly 2 19.0% 18.1% 24.0% 0.76× 5.51
Urartu to score 3+ 8.6% 8.9% 19.7% 0.45× 11.26
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.6% 42.8% 40.3% 1.06× 2.34
Noah leading at HT 40.4% 42.8% 25.9% 1.65× 2.34
Urartu leading at HT 19.0% 16.2% 33.8% 0.48× 6.17
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah -1: 1 41.7% 41.5% 2.41
Noah -1: 2 35.2% 36.2% 2.76
Noah -1: X 23.1% 23.3% 4.29
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (0:1) 81.3% 82.1% 55.6% 1.48× 1.22
Draw (0:1) 11.8% 13.1% 22.2% 0.59× 7.62
Urartu (0:1) 6.9% 8.6% 22.3% 0.39× 11.60
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (0:2) 93.1% 91.5% 77.7% 1.18× 1.09
Draw (0:2) 5.0% 3.5% 12.3% 0.28× 28.43
Urartu (0:2) 1.9% 3.5% 9.9% 0.35× 28.52
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (0:3) 98.1% 96.7% 90.1% 1.07× 1.03
Draw (0:3) 1.5% 2.6% 5.9% 0.43× 39.19
Urartu (0:3) 0.4% 2.6% 4.0% 0.63× 39.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (0:4) 99.6% 97.8% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Urartu (0:4) 0.1% 1.4% 1.5% 0.94× 70.77
Draw (0:4) 0.4% 1.4% 2.5% 0.56× 70.76
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu (1:0) 41.7% 42.8% 69.4% 0.62× 2.34
Noah (1:0) 35.2% 36.4% 13.6% 2.68× 2.75
Draw (1:0) 23.1% 22.1% 17.0% 1.30× 4.53
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu (2:0) 64.8% 65.1% 86.4% 0.75× 1.54
Draw (2:0) 18.0% 15.1% 8.1% 1.86× 6.60
Noah (2:0) 17.2% 15.1% 5.4% 2.79× 6.61
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.4% 48.3% 48.6% 0.99× 2.07
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.2% 26.3% 0.99× 3.82
Halves equal 24.4% 23.3% 25.2% 0.92× 4.30
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu to concede 86.0% 86.7% 68.3% 1.27× 1.15
Urartu clean sheet 14.0% 13.3% 31.7% 0.42× 7.55
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu to concede in 1st half 54.4% 55.0% 41.0% 1.34× 1.82
Urartu clean sheet in 1st half 45.6% 45.0% 59.0% 0.76× 2.22
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu under 3.5 goals 97.9% 96.6% 92.4% 1.05× 1.04
Urartu under 2.5 goals 91.4% 92.3% 80.3% 1.15× 1.08
Urartu under 1.5 goals 72.4% 73.1% 56.3% 1.30× 1.37
Urartu over 0.5 goals 64.4% 62.4% 76.7% 0.81× 1.60
Urartu under 0.5 goals 35.6% 37.6% 23.3% 1.62× 2.66
Urartu over 1.5 goals 27.6% 26.9% 43.7% 0.62× 3.71
Urartu over 2.5 goals 8.6% 7.7% 19.7% 0.39× 13.06
Urartu over 3.5 goals 2.1% 3.4% 7.6% 0.45× 29.43
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu under 1.5 in 1st half 92.6% 93.4% 85.9% 1.09× 1.07
Urartu under 0.5 in 1st half 64.1% 62.6% 51.8% 1.21× 1.60
Urartu over 0.5 in 1st half 35.9% 37.4% 48.2% 0.78× 2.67
Urartu over 1.5 in 1st half 7.4% 6.6% 14.1% 0.47× 15.10
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah (home no bet) 71.8% 70.1% 55.1% 1.27× 1.43
Draw (home no bet) 28.2% 29.9% 44.9% 0.67× 3.34
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu even goals 56.3% 55.6% 52.8% 1.05× 1.80
Urartu odd goals 43.7% 44.4% 47.2% 0.94× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.4% 26.0% 29.3% 0.89× 3.84
HT 0-1 22.9% 22.5% 16.3% 1.38× 4.44
HT 1-0 12.9% 10.9% 20.7% 0.53× 9.15
HT 1-1 10.3% 10.9% 10.2% 1.07× 9.17
HT 0-2 9.0% 8.0% 4.9% 1.63× 12.53
Any other HT score 5.5% 8.0% 4.7% 1.69× 12.56
HT 1-2 4.0% 2.5% 2.8% 0.89× 40.40
HT 2-0 2.9% 2.5% 7.1% 0.35× 40.45
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.5% 3.3% 0.75× 40.48
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 2.76× 40.54
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah at HT / Noah at FT 34.7% 34.3% 17.4% 1.97× 2.92
Draw at HT / Noah at FT 19.9% 17.3% 11.6% 1.50× 5.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.6% 12.0% 14.1% 0.85× 8.32
Urartu at HT / Urartu at FT 10.3% 12.0% 25.8% 0.47× 8.34
Draw at HT / Urartu at FT 7.1% 6.5% 14.7% 0.44× 15.48
Urartu at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.6% 5.1% 0.71× 27.50
Noah at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.6% 5.6% 0.65× 27.51
Urartu at HT / Noah at FT 3.7% 3.6% 3.0% 1.22× 27.53
Noah at HT / Urartu at FT 1.3% 3.6% 2.9% 1.25× 27.60
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to score last 61.9% 60.3% 42.7% 1.41× 1.66
Urartu to score last 32.4% 34.2% 51.4% 0.67× 2.93
No goal scored 5.7% 6.4% 5.9% 1.08× 15.74
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.3% 93.6% 94.1% 0.99× 1.07
Noah to lead by 1 at any time 71.8% 75.4% 50.4% 1.49× 1.33
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 53.6% 51.8% 48.2% 1.07× 1.93
Noah to lead by 2 at any time 42.2% 41.8% 20.3% 2.06× 2.39
Urartu to lead by 1 at any time 37.6% 37.4% 59.8% 0.62× 2.68
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 23.1% 21.4% 19.5% 1.10× 4.68
Noah to lead by 3 at any time 20.2% 21.3% 7.4% 2.89× 4.69
Urartu to lead by 2 at any time 11.7% 11.0% 28.2% 0.39× 9.08
Urartu to lead by 3 at any time 2.9% 2.6% 12.1% 0.22× 38.18
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.1% 86.4% 1.01× 1.15
2-6 goals 77.4% 77.9% 72.4% 1.08× 1.28
1-4 goals 75.9% 77.9% 78.0% 1.00× 1.28
2-5 goals 72.4% 72.2% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
2-4 goals 62.3% 62.7% 60.1% 1.04× 1.60
1-3 goals 59.2% 58.9% 63.3% 0.93× 1.70
3-6 goals 54.3% 52.9% 49.0% 1.08× 1.89
3-5 goals 49.3% 47.4% 45.1% 1.05× 2.11
2-3 goals 45.5% 47.4% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
3-4 goals 39.2% 39.0% 36.8% 1.06× 2.56
1-2 goals 36.7% 39.0% 41.2% 0.95× 2.56
4-6 goals 31.9% 34.7% 27.0% 1.29× 2.88
4-5 goals 26.8% 28.5% 23.0% 1.24× 3.51
5-6 goals 15.1% 18.9% 12.3% 1.53× 5.30
7+ goals 3.3% 2.3% 2.4% 0.93× 44.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah never behind 56.7% 61.3% 40.2% 1.53× 1.63
Urartu never behind 22.5% 25.8% 49.6% 0.52× 3.88
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 51.5% 50.1% 49.8% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 48.5% 49.9% 50.2% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.5% 51.6% 53.7% 0.96× 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.5% 48.4% 46.3% 1.04× 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 51.6% 51.1% 1.01× 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 48.4% 48.9% 0.99× 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 91.7% 92.3% 93.7% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 81.6% 81.6% 85.3% 0.96× 1.23
Over 1.5 goals 80.7% 81.6% 74.8% 1.09× 1.23
Under 3.5 goals 64.8% 62.0% 70.6% 0.88× 1.61
Over 2.5 goals 57.6% 57.8% 51.5% 1.12× 1.73
Under 2.5 goals 42.4% 42.2% 48.5% 0.87× 2.37
Over 3.5 goals 35.2% 38.0% 29.4% 1.29× 2.63
Under 1.5 goals 19.3% 18.4% 25.2% 0.73× 5.44
Over 4.5 goals 18.4% 18.4% 14.7% 1.25× 5.44
Over 5.5 goals 8.3% 7.7% 6.3% 1.22× 12.91
Under 0.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 7.3% 1.06× 12.91
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.5% 97.3% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.7% 92.0% 93.1% 0.99× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 77.9% 76.0% 82.8% 0.92× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.9% 72.1% 67.1% 1.07× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.7% 52.0% 62.3% 0.84× 1.92
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.3% 48.0% 37.7% 1.27× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.1% 27.9% 32.9% 0.85× 3.59
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 22.1% 24.0% 17.2% 1.39× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.3% 8.0% 6.9% 1.16× 12.51
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.5% 2.7% 2.5% 1.08× 36.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.3% 88.4% 88.4% 1.00× 1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.6% 73.8% 70.7% 1.04× 1.36
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.1% 67.0% 66.3% 1.01× 1.49
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.9% 33.0% 33.7% 0.98× 3.03
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.4% 26.2% 29.3% 0.90× 3.81
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.7% 11.6% 11.6% 1.00× 8.60
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.7% 82.5% 82.3% 1.00× 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 74.0% 75.7% 77.5% 0.98× 1.32
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 47.1% 50.5% 50.2% 1.01× 1.98
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 52.9% 49.5% 49.8% 0.99× 2.02
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.0% 24.3% 22.5% 1.08× 4.11
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.3% 17.5% 17.7% 0.99× 5.72
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu not to score in both halves 84.0% 81.3% 70.5% 1.15× 1.23
Noah not to score in both halves 62.3% 61.8% 77.6% 0.80× 1.62
Noah to score in both halves 37.7% 38.2% 22.4% 1.70× 2.62
Urartu to score in both halves 16.0% 18.7% 29.5% 0.63× 5.35
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.0% 57.8% 52.4% 1.10× 1.73
Only Noah scores 29.9% 25.4% 16.0% 1.59× 3.93
Only Urartu scores 8.4% 7.1% 24.4% 0.29× 14.09
Neither team scores 5.7% 7.1% 7.3% 0.97× 14.10
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.1% 22.3% 23.3% 0.95× 4.49
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.3% 22.1% 1.01× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 16.8% 17.6% 14.7% 1.20× 5.68
Exactly 1 goals 13.6% 12.3% 17.9% 0.69× 8.14
Exactly 5 goals 10.1% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.15
6 or more goals 8.3% 7.8% 6.3% 1.22× 12.88
Exactly 0 goals 5.7% 7.8% 7.3% 1.06× 12.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 52.9% 49.6% 49.8% 1.00× 2.02
1 goal in 2nd half 29.7% 27.2% 32.5% 0.84× 3.68
No goals in 2nd half 17.3% 16.4% 17.7% 0.93× 6.09
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu not to win both halves 96.5% 97.3% 86.8% 1.12× 1.03
Noah not to win both halves 79.6% 81.6% 91.8% 0.89× 1.23
Noah to win both halves 20.4% 18.4% 8.2% 2.24× 5.44
Urartu to win both halves 3.5% 2.7% 13.2% 0.21× 36.87
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah to win either half 70.1% 70.0% 47.4% 1.48× 1.43
Urartu to win neither half 66.3% 68.7% 41.7% 1.65× 1.46
Urartu to win either half 33.7% 31.3% 58.3% 0.54× 3.19
Noah to win neither half 29.9% 30.0% 52.6% 0.57× 3.33
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urartu not to win to nil 91.6% 92.3% 75.6% 1.22× 1.08
Noah not to win to nil 70.1% 74.8% 84.0% 0.89× 1.34
Noah to win to nil 29.9% 25.2% 16.0% 1.58× 3.97
Urartu to win to nil 8.4% 7.7% 24.4% 0.31× 13.07
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Noah by 1 23.1% 23.4% 17.0% 1.37× 4.27
Draw 22.9% 23.4% 25.0% 0.94× 4.27
Noah by 2 18.0% 17.2% 8.1% 2.12× 5.80
Noah by 3+ 17.2% 17.2% 5.4% 3.17× 5.80
Urartu by 1 11.8% 11.8% 22.2% 0.53× 8.45
Urartu by 2 5.0% 3.0% 12.3% 0.24× 33.43
Urartu by 3+ 1.9% 3.0% 9.9% 0.30× 33.47
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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