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Urawa Red Diamonds v Tokyo Verdy 1969 — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Urawa Red Diamonds win
54.0%
model 54.3%
Draw
23.0%
model 23.7%
Tokyo Verdy 1969 win
23.0%
model 22.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 11.6%
  2. 1-1 11.3%
  3. 2-0 9.8%
  4. 2-1 9.7%
  5. 0-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.550.7% Under 2.549.3%
BTTS yes51.4% BTTS no48.6%
Urawa Red Diamonds 1+81.9% Urawa Red Diamonds 2+51.0%
Tokyo Verdy 1969 1+63.0% Tokyo Verdy 1969 2+26.2%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Urawa Red Diamonds over 1.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 39%
53.3% fair odds 1.88
strong signal · 8007 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Urawa Red Diamonds or draw at HT
Double chance 1HT
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 961 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Urawa Red Diamonds carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1408.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Urawa Red Diamonds have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 23.0% for Tokyo Verdy 1969. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.71 for Urawa Red Diamonds and 0.99 for Tokyo Verdy 1969.

Why Urawa Red Diamonds

Urawa Red Diamonds carry the stronger rating, 1517 Elo against 1408.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Tokyo Verdy 1969 can win

Nothing in the data singles out Tokyo Verdy 1969.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Urawa Red Diamonds, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tokyo Verdy 1969, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Urawa Red Diamonds: 52% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tokyo Verdy 1969: 41% possession, 8.6 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Urawa Red Diamonds's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Urawa Red Diamonds are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 11.6%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.71–0.99 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.62–0.82 1-0 14% 44% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to win 54.3% 51.6% 42.9% 1.20× 1.94
Draw 23.7% 23.5% 26.3% 0.89× 4.26
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win 22.0% 23.5% 31.0% 0.76× 4.26
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds & not both score 30.5% 31.0% 25.0% 1.24× 3.23
Urawa Red Diamonds & both teams score 23.8% 21.5% 18.0% 1.19× 4.65
Draw & both teams score 17.1% 18.2% 19.3% 0.94× 5.49
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & not both score 11.5% 12.6% 17.7% 0.71× 7.91
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & both teams score 10.5% 12.6% 13.4% 0.94× 7.91
Draw & not both score 6.6% 7.7% 7.1% 1.08× 13.05
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds & over 1.5 42.7% 42.8% 30.2% 1.42× 2.34
Urawa Red Diamonds & under 3.5 36.7% 36.6% 33.1% 1.11× 2.73
Urawa Red Diamonds & over 2.5 32.9% 31.8% 23.1% 1.38× 3.15
Urawa Red Diamonds & under 2.5 21.4% 21.8% 19.9% 1.09× 4.59
Urawa Red Diamonds & over 3.5 17.6% 17.7% 10.0% 1.77× 5.66
Draw & over 1.5 17.1% 17.7% 19.3% 0.92× 5.66
Draw & under 2.5 17.8% 17.7% 20.4% 0.87× 5.66
Draw & under 3.5 17.8% 17.7% 20.4% 0.87× 5.66
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & under 3.5 16.8% 17.7% 23.4% 0.76× 5.66
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & over 1.5 15.2% 17.7% 21.2% 0.83× 5.66
Urawa Red Diamonds & under 1.5 11.6% 12.5% 12.8% 0.97× 8.03
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & over 2.5 11.9% 12.5% 17.9% 0.70× 8.03
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & under 2.5 10.1% 12.5% 13.3% 0.94× 8.03
Draw & under 1.5 6.6% 7.6% 7.1% 1.07× 13.17
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & under 1.5 6.8% 7.6% 10.0% 0.76× 13.17
Draw & over 2.5 5.8% 7.6% 6.0% 1.26× 13.17
Draw & over 3.5 5.8% 7.6% 6.0% 1.26× 13.17
Tokyo Verdy 1969 & over 3.5 5.2% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.17
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (1UP) 67.5% 69.9% 1.43
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (1UP) 39.3% 39.3% 2.55
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (2UP) 54.3% 56.1% 1.78
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (2UP) 22.0% 22.9% 4.37
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to win 2nd half 43.5% 40.9% 2.45
2nd half drawn 34.7% 32.4% 3.08
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win 2nd half 21.9% 22.3% 4.48
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (+2.5) 86.8% 87.4% 93.8% 0.93× 1.14
Urawa Red Diamonds (+0.5) 78.0% 78.3% 69.0% 1.13× 1.28
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (+1.5) 70.2% 72.8% 82.0% 0.89× 1.37
Urawa Red Diamonds (-0.5) 54.3% 52.0% 42.9% 1.21× 1.92
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (+0.5) 45.7% 48.0% 57.1% 0.84× 2.08
Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) 29.8% 27.2% 18.0% 1.51× 3.68
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (-0.5) 22.0% 21.7% 31.0% 0.70× 4.60
Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) 13.2% 12.6% 6.2% 2.04× 7.93
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to concede 81.9% 82.9% 75.3% 1.10× 1.21
Tokyo Verdy 1969 clean sheet 18.1% 17.1% 24.7% 0.69× 5.84
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to concede in 1st half 52.0% 53.2% 1.88
Tokyo Verdy 1969 clean sheet in 1st half 48.0% 46.8% 2.14
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 6.5 corners 82.5% 81.4% 1.23
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 2.5 corners 76.6% 75.9% 1.32
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 5.5 corners 71.7% 71.5% 1.40
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 3.5 corners 59.7% 57.1% 1.75
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 4.5 corners 57.2% 57.1% 1.75
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 4.5 corners 42.8% 42.9% 2.33
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 3.5 corners 40.3% 42.9% 2.33
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 5.5 corners 28.3% 28.5% 3.51
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 2.5 corners 23.4% 24.1% 4.16
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 6.5 corners 17.5% 18.6% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.3% 95.9% 1.02× 1.03
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 2.5 goals 92.1% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 1.5 goals 73.8% 71.3% 68.2% 1.05× 1.40
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 0.5 goals 63.0% 63.7% 68.0% 0.94× 1.57
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 0.5 goals 37.0% 36.3% 32.0% 1.13× 2.76
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 1.5 goals 26.2% 28.7% 31.8% 0.90× 3.48
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 2.5 goals 7.9% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.61
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.7% 4.1% 0.65× 37.48
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 1.5 in 1st half 93.9% 93.7% 1.07
Tokyo Verdy 1969 under 0.5 in 1st half 67.2% 66.8% 1.50
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 0.5 in 1st half 32.8% 33.2% 3.02
Tokyo Verdy 1969 over 1.5 in 1st half 6.1% 6.3% 15.78
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (away no bet) 69.6% 66.8% 62.0% 1.08× 1.50
Draw (away no bet) 30.4% 33.2% 38.0% 0.88× 3.01
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 even goals 56.9% 56.5% 54.4% 1.04× 1.77
Tokyo Verdy 1969 odd goals 43.1% 43.5% 45.6% 0.96× 2.30
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.5% 86.8% 1.15
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.5% 13.2% 7.58
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.2% 65.0% 1.54
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.8% 35.0% 2.85
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.5% 58.1% 1.72
Urawa Red Diamonds to score 2+ in a row 43.4% 45.1% 2.22
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.4% 21.2% 4.72
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score 2+ in a row 18.5% 17.4% 5.76
Urawa Red Diamonds to score 3+ in a row 17.5% 17.4% 5.76
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score 3+ in a row 4.1% 3.1% 32.52
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (+3.5) 89.8% 84.5% 1.18
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (+2.5) 83.9% 79.7% 1.25
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (+3.5) 76.4% 74.8% 1.34
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (+1.5) 76.0% 74.8% 1.34
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (+2.5) 67.1% 65.7% 1.52
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (+1.5) 56.3% 57.1% 1.75
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (-1.5) 43.7% 42.9% 2.33
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (-2.5) 32.9% 34.3% 2.92
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (-1.5) 24.0% 25.2% 3.97
Urawa Red Diamonds corners (-3.5) 23.6% 25.2% 3.97
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (-2.5) 16.1% 20.3% 4.94
Tokyo Verdy 1969 corners (-3.5) 10.2% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 40.1% 38.6% 2.59
9-11 corners 31.2% 33.2% 3.01
12+ corners 28.7% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.1% 76.5% 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 71.3% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 70.8% 72.6% 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 61.8% 63.4% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 59.9% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 51.2% 53.3% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 48.8% 46.7% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 40.1% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 38.2% 36.6% 2.73
Under 7.5 corners 29.2% 27.4% 3.65
Over 11.5 corners 28.7% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 20.9% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 11.6% 11.2% 12.8% 0.88× 8.90
1-1 11.3% 11.2% 13.4% 0.84× 8.90
2-0 9.8% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.48
2-1 9.7% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.48
1-2 5.7% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.49
3-0 5.6% 7.4% 3.6% 2.04× 13.49
3-1 5.5% 7.4% 3.0% 2.47× 13.49
0-0 6.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.49
0-1 6.8% 7.4% 10.0% 0.74× 13.49
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.73× 58.11
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.18× 58.11
2-2 4.8% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.10
2-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.11
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.63× 58.11
3-2 2.8% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.10
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.18× 58.11
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.72× 58.11
4-0 2.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.10
4-1 2.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.63× 58.10
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.11
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.44× 58.11
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.44× 58.11
Any other score 3.4% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.10
0-2 3.3% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.10
0-3 1.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.54× 58.11
0-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.55× 58.11
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds leading at HT (DNB) 68.8% 71.0% 1.41
Tokyo Verdy 1969 leading at HT (DNB) 31.2% 29.1% 3.44
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds or draw (1X) 78.0% 76.5% 69.0% 1.11× 1.31
Urawa Red Diamonds or Tokyo Verdy 1969 (12) 76.3% 76.5% 73.7% 1.04× 1.31
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or draw (X2) 45.7% 48.4% 57.1% 0.85× 2.07
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds or draw at HT 82.0% 83.5% 1.20
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or draw at HT 60.3% 62.6% 1.60
Urawa Red Diamonds or Tokyo Verdy 1969 at HT 57.7% 57.3% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds or draw (1UP) 78.0% 82.8% 1.21
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or draw (1UP) 45.7% 52.2% 1.92
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds or draw in 2nd half 78.1% 77.7% 1.29
Urawa Red Diamonds or Tokyo Verdy 1969 in 2nd half 65.3% 67.6% 1.48
Tokyo Verdy 1969 or draw in 2nd half 56.5% 59.1% 1.69
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.5% 60.1% 1.66
Neither half drawn 37.5% 39.9% 2.51
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (DNB) 71.1% 73.1% 58.0% 1.26× 1.37
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (DNB) 28.9% 26.9% 42.0% 0.64× 3.72
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to score first 59.1% 59.6% 1.68
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score first 34.3% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 6.6% 6.3% 15.92
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.4% 51.8% 50.5% 1.03× 1.93
Not both teams to score 48.6% 48.2% 49.5% 0.97× 2.08
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.2% 41.6% 37.2% 1.12× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 38.1% 38.0% 40.0% 0.95× 2.63
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 11.9% 13.4% 0.88× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 10.5% 11.9% 9.7% 1.23× 8.41
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.7% 85.9% 86.2% 1.00× 1.16
Both teams to score 2+ 13.3% 14.1% 13.8% 1.02× 7.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.1% 71.4% 1.40
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.9% 28.6% 3.50
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.8% 56.9% 1.76
Both score 2nd half only 23.1% 23.3% 4.29
Both score 1st half only 12.3% 11.9% 8.40
Both score in both halves 4.8% 4.6% 21.60
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.0% 82.7% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.0% 17.3% 5.78
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.6% 52.6% 1.90
A half without a goal 46.4% 47.4% 2.11
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 46.6% 47.2% 0.99× 2.15
4-6 goals 26.6% 27.3% 21.0% 1.30× 3.66
0-1 goals 25.0% 23.3% 29.6% 0.79× 4.29
7+ goals 2.1% 2.0% 2.5% 0.79× 50.25
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score exactly 0 37.0% 36.0% 32.0% 1.13× 2.78
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 36.4% 0.99× 2.78
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score exactly 2 18.3% 18.4% 19.8% 0.93× 5.43
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score 3+ 7.9% 8.7% 12.2% 0.71× 11.52
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to score exactly 1 30.9% 32.1% 36.4% 0.88× 3.12
Urawa Red Diamonds to score exactly 2 26.4% 26.4% 24.4% 1.08× 3.79
Urawa Red Diamonds to score 3+ 24.5% 22.9% 14.9% 1.54× 4.37
Urawa Red Diamonds to score exactly 0 18.1% 18.3% 24.7% 0.74× 5.45
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.3% 42.7% 2.34
Urawa Red Diamonds leading at HT 39.7% 37.4% 2.68
Tokyo Verdy 1969 leading at HT 18.0% 16.5% 6.06
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds -1: 2 45.7% 48.1% 2.08
Urawa Red Diamonds -1: 1 29.8% 26.9% 3.72
Urawa Red Diamonds -1: X 24.5% 23.2% 4.30
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (0:1) 45.7% 47.6% 57.1% 0.83× 2.10
Urawa Red Diamonds (0:1) 29.8% 27.4% 18.0% 1.52× 3.65
Draw (0:1) 24.5% 23.5% 25.0% 0.94× 4.25
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (0:2) 70.2% 74.4% 82.0% 0.91× 1.34
Draw (0:2) 16.7% 15.7% 12.0% 1.31× 6.37
Urawa Red Diamonds (0:2) 13.2% 11.4% 6.2% 1.84× 8.78
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (0:3) 86.8% 88.5% 93.8% 0.94× 1.13
Draw (0:3) 8.4% 6.4% 4.3% 1.50× 15.56
Urawa Red Diamonds (0:3) 4.8% 2.6% 2.1% 1.25× 38.94
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (0:4) 95.2% 97.7% 97.9% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 3.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.00× 70.51
Urawa Red Diamonds (0:4) 1.4% 1.4% 0.8% 1.79× 70.57
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (1:0) 78.0% 77.3% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
Draw (1:0) 14.3% 12.5% 19.3% 0.65× 8.02
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (1:0) 7.7% 7.5% 11.9% 0.63× 13.31
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds (2:0) 92.3% 92.9% 88.1% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (2:0) 5.6% 6.7% 6.0% 1.11× 14.99
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (2:0) 2.1% 2.8% 6.0% 0.46× 36.36
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.6% 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% 3.82
Halves equal 24.9% 23.3% 4.29
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to concede 63.0% 65.5% 68.0% 0.96× 1.53
Urawa Red Diamonds clean sheet 37.0% 34.5% 32.0% 1.08× 2.90
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds clean sheet in 1st half 67.2% 66.6% 1.50
Urawa Red Diamonds to concede in 1st half 32.8% 33.4% 2.99
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds over 2.5 corners 85.9% 86.3% 1.16
Urawa Red Diamonds over 3.5 corners 73.0% 71.9% 1.39
Urawa Red Diamonds under 6.5 corners 69.7% 66.7% 1.50
Urawa Red Diamonds over 4.5 corners 58.1% 57.5% 1.74
Urawa Red Diamonds under 5.5 corners 56.8% 57.5% 1.74
Urawa Red Diamonds over 5.5 corners 43.3% 42.5% 2.35
Urawa Red Diamonds under 4.5 corners 41.9% 42.5% 2.35
Urawa Red Diamonds over 6.5 corners 30.3% 33.3% 3.00
Urawa Red Diamonds under 3.5 corners 27.0% 28.1% 3.56
Urawa Red Diamonds under 2.5 corners 14.2% 13.7% 7.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds under 3.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 94.9% 0.97× 1.08
Urawa Red Diamonds over 0.5 goals 81.9% 82.2% 75.3% 1.09× 1.22
Urawa Red Diamonds under 2.5 goals 75.5% 77.9% 85.1% 0.92× 1.28
Urawa Red Diamonds over 1.5 goals 50.9% 53.3% 39.1% 1.36× 1.88
Urawa Red Diamonds under 1.5 goals 49.1% 46.7% 60.9% 0.77× 2.14
Urawa Red Diamonds over 2.5 goals 24.5% 22.1% 14.9% 1.49× 4.53
Urawa Red Diamonds under 0.5 goals 18.1% 17.8% 24.7% 0.72× 5.61
Urawa Red Diamonds over 3.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 5.1% 1.52× 13.03
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds under 1.5 in 1st half 83.2% 81.5% 1.23
Urawa Red Diamonds over 0.5 in 1st half 52.0% 53.2% 1.88
Urawa Red Diamonds under 0.5 in 1st half 48.0% 46.8% 2.14
Urawa Red Diamonds over 1.5 in 1st half 16.8% 18.5% 5.41
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 51.8% 52.1% 45.9% 1.14× 1.92
Tokyo Verdy 1969 (home no bet) 48.2% 47.9% 54.1% 0.88× 2.09
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds even goals 51.6% 50.9% 52.4% 0.97× 1.96
Urawa Red Diamonds odd goals 48.4% 49.1% 47.6% 1.03× 2.04
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.2% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 23.7% 22.2% 4.50
HT 0-1 12.8% 10.9% 9.14
HT 1-1 9.4% 8.0% 12.44
HT 2-0 8.7% 8.0% 12.45
Any other HT score 4.6% 2.5% 40.34
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.5% 40.39
HT 0-2 2.5% 2.5% 40.43
HT 1-2 1.9% 2.5% 40.46
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.5% 40.52
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds at HT / Urawa Red Diamonds at FT 33.2% 33.5% 2.98
Draw at HT / Urawa Red Diamonds at FT 18.5% 17.2% 5.82
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.5% 12.2% 8.19
Tokyo Verdy 1969 at HT / Tokyo Verdy 1969 at FT 11.1% 12.2% 8.22
Draw at HT / Tokyo Verdy 1969 at FT 9.3% 6.4% 15.51
Urawa Red Diamonds at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.7% 27.26
Tokyo Verdy 1969 at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.7% 27.28
Tokyo Verdy 1969 at HT / Urawa Red Diamonds at FT 2.6% 3.7% 27.32
Urawa Red Diamonds at HT / Tokyo Verdy 1969 at FT 1.6% 3.7% 27.35
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to score last 59.1% 58.1% 1.72
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score last 34.4% 34.3% 2.91
No goal scored 6.6% 6.3% 15.92
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.4% 93.6% 1.07
Urawa Red Diamonds to lead by 1 at any time 67.5% 68.4% 1.46
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 48.0% 46.8% 2.14
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to lead by 1 at any time 39.3% 38.1% 2.62
Urawa Red Diamonds to lead by 2 at any time 36.1% 38.0% 2.63
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.6% 17.3% 5.78
Urawa Red Diamonds to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 17.3% 5.79
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to lead by 2 at any time 12.2% 11.0% 9.11
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to lead by 3 at any time 3.0% 2.5% 40.43
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds most corners 55.1% 55.5% 1.80
Tokyo Verdy 1969 most corners 33.8% 34.2% 2.92
Corners level 11.1% 10.4% 9.63
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.7% 87.2% 87.5% 1.00× 1.15
1-4 goals 79.7% 77.9% 81.8% 0.95× 1.28
2-6 goals 73.0% 72.1% 68.0% 1.06× 1.39
2-5 goals 69.4% 68.2% 65.0% 1.05× 1.47
1-3 goals 64.8% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.60
2-4 goals 61.3% 62.7% 59.3% 1.06× 1.60
3-6 goals 48.6% 47.4% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
2-3 goals 46.4% 47.4% 47.2% 1.00× 2.11
3-5 goals 45.0% 47.4% 41.3% 1.15× 2.11
1-2 goals 42.7% 43.7% 46.4% 0.94× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.0% 39.0% 35.6% 1.10× 2.56
4-6 goals 26.6% 28.5% 21.0% 1.36× 3.51
4-5 goals 22.9% 23.8% 18.0% 1.32× 4.20
5-6 goals 11.7% 13.5% 8.9% 1.52× 7.40
7+ goals 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 0.89× 44.59
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds never behind 54.1% 59.5% 1.68
Tokyo Verdy 1969 never behind 25.9% 30.9% 3.24
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 50.0% 53.2% 0.94× 2.00
Even number of goals 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% 1.07× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 55.1% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.1% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.9% 48.5% 2.06
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 94.5% 0.98× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.4% 92.3% 92.9% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.3% 87.7% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.0% 77.0% 70.4% 1.09× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 71.4% 72.2% 76.6% 0.94× 1.39
Over 2.5 goals 50.7% 52.1% 46.7% 1.12× 1.92
Under 2.5 goals 49.3% 47.9% 53.3% 0.90× 2.09
Over 3.5 goals 28.6% 27.8% 23.4% 1.19× 3.60
Under 1.5 goals 25.0% 23.0% 29.6% 0.78× 4.35
Over 4.5 goals 13.7% 12.3% 11.2% 1.09× 8.14
Under 0.5 goals 6.6% 7.7% 7.1% 1.08× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 5.5% 1.39× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.3% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.8% 92.0% 94.1% 0.98× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.9% 81.3% 87.2% 0.93× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.0% 67.4% 61.2% 1.10× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.3% 62.0% 69.5% 0.89× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.7% 38.0% 30.5% 1.25× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.0% 32.6% 38.8% 0.84× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.1% 18.7% 12.8% 1.46× 5.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.2% 8.0% 5.9% 1.36× 12.56
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.7% 2.6% 1.04× 36.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.4% 88.4% 1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.8% 67.6% 1.48
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.8% 67.6% 1.48
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.2% 32.4% 3.09
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.2% 32.4% 3.09
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.6% 11.6% 8.61
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 79.9% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 79.9% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.5% 50.1% 2.00
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.5% 49.9% 2.00
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 20.1% 4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 20.1% 4.97
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 not to score in both halves 85.3% 85.1% 1.18
Urawa Red Diamonds not to score in both halves 67.6% 67.1% 1.49
Urawa Red Diamonds to score in both halves 32.4% 32.9% 3.04
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to score in both halves 14.7% 14.9% 6.72
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.4% 54.5% 50.5% 1.08× 1.84
Only Urawa Red Diamonds scores 30.5% 31.7% 25.0% 1.27× 3.16
Only Tokyo Verdy 1969 scores 11.5% 11.1% 17.7% 0.62× 9.05
Neither team scores 6.6% 7.2% 7.1% 1.01× 13.97
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.4% 22.3% 23.9% 0.93× 4.48
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.3% 23.4% 0.95× 4.48
Exactly 1 goals 18.4% 17.6% 22.6% 0.78× 5.69
Exactly 4 goals 14.9% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.12
Exactly 5 goals 8.1% 7.8% 5.9% 1.33× 12.89
Exactly 0 goals 6.6% 7.8% 7.1% 1.09× 12.89
6 or more goals 5.7% 7.8% 5.5% 1.40× 12.89
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.5% 50.0% 2.00
1 goal in 2nd half 32.8% 34.3% 2.91
No goals in 2nd half 20.8% 20.1% 4.97
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 not to win both halves 96.1% 97.4% 1.03
Urawa Red Diamonds not to win both halves 82.8% 82.5% 1.21
Urawa Red Diamonds to win both halves 17.2% 17.5% 5.71
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win both halves 3.9% 2.6% 38.54
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds to win either half 65.9% 68.0% 1.47
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win neither half 64.1% 64.2% 1.56
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win either half 35.9% 35.8% 2.79
Urawa Red Diamonds to win neither half 34.1% 32.0% 3.13
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tokyo Verdy 1969 not to win to nil 88.5% 88.1% 82.3% 1.07× 1.14
Urawa Red Diamonds not to win to nil 69.5% 69.4% 75.0% 0.92× 1.44
Urawa Red Diamonds to win to nil 30.5% 30.6% 25.0% 1.23× 3.26
Tokyo Verdy 1969 to win to nil 11.5% 11.9% 17.7% 0.67× 8.40
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Urawa Red Diamonds by 1 24.5% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.29
Draw 23.7% 23.3% 26.3% 0.89× 4.29
Urawa Red Diamonds by 2 16.7% 17.3% 12.0% 1.44× 5.78
Tokyo Verdy 1969 by 1 14.3% 11.8% 19.3% 0.61× 8.46
Urawa Red Diamonds by 3+ 13.2% 11.8% 6.2% 1.92× 8.46
Tokyo Verdy 1969 by 2 5.6% 7.3% 6.0% 1.22× 13.66
Tokyo Verdy 1969 by 3+ 2.1% 3.0% 6.0% 0.49× 33.83
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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