UTC v Juan Pablo II — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

UTC

1–2

20:00 UTC

Juan Pablo II

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 8h before kick-off

UTC win

38.1%

model 39.7%

Draw

23.9%

model 22.9%

Juan Pablo II win

38.1%

model 37.4%

382438

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (7,703 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.2%
2-1 8.5%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 6.8%
2-2 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.3%	Under 2.5	37.7%
BTTS yes	63.7%	BTTS no	36.3%
UTC 1+	80.5%	UTC 2+	48.6%
Juan Pablo II 1+	79.4%	Juan Pablo II 2+	46.9%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.58. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

83/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 37%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 7157 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

UTC (2:0)

Handicap 2:0 · usually 92%

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 4439 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out UTC.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

UTC have an estimated 38.1% win probability, against 38.1% for Juan Pablo II and 23.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.64 for UTC and 1.58 for Juan Pablo II.

Why UTC

Nothing in the data singles out UTC.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.64 to 1.58. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Juan Pablo II can win

Juan Pablo II carry the stronger rating, 1424 Elo against 1335.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for UTC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Juan Pablo II, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

UTC: 49% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Juan Pablo II: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

UTC are the model's most likely outcome at 38.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.2%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	402337	1.64–1.58	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	432333	1.67–1.43	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	442333	1.67–1.42	1-1 11%	60%	61%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	472528	1.59–1.16	1-1 12%	52%	55%	Home ✗
deep	362340	1.48–1.57	1-1 11%	59%	61%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to win	40.4%	42.9%	25.4%	1.69×	2.33
UTC to win	36.5%	36.3%	49.8%	0.73×	2.75
Draw	23.2%	24.4%	25.0%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II & both teams score	21.9%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.59
UTC & both teams score	20.0%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.57
Juan Pablo II & not both score	18.4%	18.0%	12.3%	1.46×	5.57
UTC & not both score	16.5%	18.0%	26.4%	0.68×	5.57
Draw & not both score	4.3%	4.9%	7.8%	0.63×	20.44

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II & over 1.5	32.5%	30.8%	17.4%	1.77×	3.25
UTC & over 1.5	29.0%	26.1%	38.0%	0.69×	3.84
Juan Pablo II & over 2.5	26.7%	26.1%	14.5%	1.80×	3.84
Juan Pablo II & under 3.5	25.4%	26.1%	19.4%	1.34×	3.84
UTC & over 2.5	23.9%	21.6%	30.8%	0.70×	4.63
UTC & under 3.5	23.3%	21.6%	33.7%	0.64×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.9%	18.0%	17.4%	1.03×	5.56
Juan Pablo II & over 3.5	15.0%	18.0%	6.2%	2.92×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.8%	12.9%	18.8%	0.68×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	18.8%	0.68×	7.78
Juan Pablo II & under 2.5	13.7%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.78
UTC & under 2.5	12.6%	12.9%	19.2%	0.67×	7.78
UTC & over 3.5	13.2%	12.9%	16.3%	0.79×	7.78
UTC & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	12.0%	0.66×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.3%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63
Juan Pablo II & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	8.2%	0.97×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	7.8%	0.62×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (1UP)	58.2%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
UTC (1UP)	54.9%	52.9%	—	—	1.89

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (2UP)	40.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
UTC (2UP)	36.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to win 2nd half	36.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.77
2nd half drawn	32.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.94
UTC to win 2nd half	31.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.7%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.9%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.3%	21.3%	—	—	4.68

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.3%	75.7%	—	—	1.32
UTC over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
UTC under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
UTC over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.7%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (+2.5)	93.5%	92.1%	88.6%	1.04×	1.09
Juan Pablo II (+1.5)	83.0%	82.5%	75.4%	1.09×	1.21
Juan Pablo II (+0.5)	63.5%	62.9%	50.2%	1.25×	1.59
UTC (+0.5)	59.6%	57.1%	74.6%	0.76×	1.75
Juan Pablo II (-0.5)	40.4%	42.9%	25.4%	1.69×	2.33
UTC (-0.5)	36.5%	37.1%	49.8%	0.74×	2.70
UTC (-1.5)	17.0%	17.5%	24.6%	0.71×	5.72
UTC (-2.5)	6.5%	7.9%	11.4%	0.69×	12.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede	77.3%	78.8%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
Juan Pablo II clean sheet	22.7%	21.2%	19.9%	1.07×	4.71

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede in 1st half	47.1%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Juan Pablo II clean sheet in 1st half	52.9%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to concede in 2nd half	57.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Juan Pablo II clean sheet in 2nd half	43.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	97.5%	0.95×	1.08
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 goals	79.2%	76.3%	65.9%	1.16×	1.31
Juan Pablo II under 2.5 goals	79.1%	76.3%	92.0%	0.83×	1.31
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.5%	71.6%	0.75×	1.87
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.5%	28.4%	1.63×	2.15
Juan Pablo II over 2.5 goals	20.9%	23.7%	8.0%	2.97×	4.22
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 goals	20.8%	23.7%	34.1%	0.70×	4.22
Juan Pablo II over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	2.5%	3.03×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II under 1.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Juan Pablo II under 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Juan Pablo II over 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	44.7%	—	—	2.24
Juan Pablo II over 1.5 in 1st half	13.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II scores more in 2nd half	41.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Juan Pablo II scores equally in both	35.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Juan Pablo II scores more in 1st half	23.5%	22.0%	—	—	4.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC (away no bet)	61.2%	62.0%	66.6%	0.93×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.8%	38.0%	33.4%	1.14×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II even goals	52.2%	52.6%	56.9%	0.93×	1.90
Juan Pablo II odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.7%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.3%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.0%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.0%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	61.3%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Juan Pablo II to score 2+ in a row	36.5%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
UTC to score 2+ in a row	33.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Juan Pablo II to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.0%	—	—	8.30
UTC to score 3+ in a row	10.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.34

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	11.2%	1.02×	8.73
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	7.6%	0.97×	13.50
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	8.2%	0.91×	13.50
1-0	7.4%	7.4%	12.0%	0.62×	13.50
2-1	8.1%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.50
0-2	5.8%	7.4%	3.1%	2.40×	13.50
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.50
2-2	6.4%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.50
0-0	4.3%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	58.33
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.34
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.16×	58.35
1-3	4.5%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.33
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.34
2-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.33
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.35
3-0	2.6%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.34
3-1	4.0%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.33
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	3.8%	0.45×	58.34
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.89×	58.34
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.36×	58.35
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.35
4-1	1.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.34
4-2	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.35
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.4%	4.73×	58.35
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	9.47×	58.35
Any other score	3.9%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.33

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (2nd half DNB)	54.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
UTC (2nd half DNB)	46.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC leading at HT (DNB)	50.4%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Juan Pablo II leading at HT (DNB)	49.6%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC or Juan Pablo II (12)	76.8%	75.6%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Juan Pablo II or draw (X2)	63.5%	63.7%	50.2%	1.27×	1.57
UTC or draw (1X)	59.6%	57.1%	74.6%	0.77×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC or draw at HT	70.5%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Juan Pablo II or draw at HT	70.0%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
UTC or Juan Pablo II at HT	59.5%	57.0%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II or draw (1UP)	63.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
UTC or draw (1UP)	59.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II or draw in 2nd half	69.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
UTC or Juan Pablo II in 2nd half	67.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
UTC or draw in 2nd half	63.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.4%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (DNB)	52.6%	51.0%	33.7%	1.51×	1.96
UTC (DNB)	47.4%	49.0%	66.3%	0.74×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to score first	49.3%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
UTC to score first	46.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
No goal scored	4.3%	4.4%	—	—	22.77

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.8%	56.6%	53.8%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.2%	43.4%	46.2%	0.94×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.3%	47.2%	42.8%	1.10×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	30.6%	34.5%	37.7%	0.91×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.4%	11.2%	1.10×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	8.7%	0.96×	12.04

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.7%	79.7%	85.7%	0.93×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.3%	20.3%	14.3%	1.42×	4.93

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.3%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.7%	32.4%	—	—	3.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Both score 2nd half only	27.0%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Both score 1st half only	14.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.35
Both score in both halves	7.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.48

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.1%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	21.9%	19.4%	—	—	5.16

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	40.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.0%	42.1%	44.2%	0.95×	2.38
4-6 goals	32.9%	30.8%	26.8%	1.15×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.6%	20.2%	27.5%	0.74×	4.94
7+ goals	3.6%	1.8%	1.8%	1.01×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 1	32.6%	33.8%	37.7%	0.90×	2.96
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 2	25.7%	27.4%	20.7%	1.33×	3.65
Juan Pablo II to score 3+	20.9%	22.3%	8.0%	2.80×	4.49
Juan Pablo II to score exactly 0	20.8%	22.3%	34.1%	0.65×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC to score exactly 1	33.7%	32.5%	33.0%	0.99×	3.07
UTC to score exactly 2	25.0%	23.3%	25.0%	0.93×	4.29
UTC to score exactly 0	22.7%	23.3%	19.9%	1.17×	4.29
UTC to score 3+	18.7%	18.8%	22.5%	0.84×	5.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.5%	43.0%	—	—	2.32
UTC leading at HT	30.0%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Juan Pablo II leading at HT	29.5%	25.3%	—	—	3.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II -1: 1	59.6%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Juan Pablo II -1: X	20.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Juan Pablo II -1: 2	19.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:1)	63.5%	61.4%	50.2%	1.22×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	19.4%	17.8%	25.4%	0.70×	5.60
UTC (0:1)	17.0%	17.8%	24.6%	0.72×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:2)	83.0%	82.9%	75.4%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	11.0%	13.4%	0.82×	9.13
UTC (0:2)	6.5%	7.7%	11.4%	0.67×	13.02

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:3)	93.5%	92.7%	88.6%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	7.6%	0.31×	42.17
UTC (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	4.0%	0.59×	42.28

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (0:4)	98.0%	98.1%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	2.5%	0.48×	82.68
UTC (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.6%	0.74×	82.79

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC (1:0)	59.6%	58.5%	74.6%	0.78×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	20.6%	21.7%	17.9%	1.21×	4.61
Juan Pablo II (1:0)	19.8%	17.1%	7.6%	2.25×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC (2:0)	80.2%	84.6%	92.4%	0.92×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.9%	10.3%	5.6%	1.83×	9.72
Juan Pablo II (2:0)	7.9%	6.4%	2.2%	2.94×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.0%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	22.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC to concede	79.2%	76.2%	65.9%	1.16×	1.31
UTC clean sheet	20.8%	23.8%	34.1%	0.70×	4.20

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC clean sheet in 1st half	53.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
UTC to concede in 1st half	46.7%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC to concede in 2nd half	61.1%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
UTC clean sheet in 2nd half	38.9%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC under 3.5 goals	93.7%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
UTC under 2.5 goals	81.3%	82.2%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
UTC over 0.5 goals	77.3%	77.7%	80.1%	0.97×	1.29
UTC under 1.5 goals	56.4%	58.6%	52.7%	1.11×	1.71
UTC over 1.5 goals	43.6%	41.4%	47.3%	0.88×	2.42
UTC under 0.5 goals	22.7%	22.3%	19.9%	1.12×	4.49
UTC over 2.5 goals	18.7%	17.8%	22.5%	0.79×	5.61
UTC over 3.5 goals	6.3%	7.8%	7.6%	1.02×	12.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 1st half	86.6%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
UTC over 0.5 in 1st half	47.1%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
UTC under 0.5 in 1st half	52.9%	49.8%	—	—	2.01
UTC over 1.5 in 1st half	13.4%	10.0%	—	—	10.03

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC scores more in 2nd half	37.7%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
UTC scores equally in both	36.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
UTC scores more in 1st half	25.6%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II (home no bet)	63.6%	60.0%	50.4%	1.19×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.4%	40.0%	49.6%	0.81×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC even goals	52.6%	50.7%	50.5%	1.00×	1.97
UTC odd goals	47.4%	49.3%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
HT 1-0	18.0%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 0-1	17.8%	18.9%	—	—	5.29
HT 1-1	11.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.23
HT 2-0	5.7%	7.0%	—	—	14.38
HT 0-2	5.6%	7.0%	—	—	14.38
Any other HT score	5.2%	7.0%	—	—	14.39
HT 1-2	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.29
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.46

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	22.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
UTC at HT / UTC at FT	21.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / UTC at FT	12.8%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
UTC at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.48
Juan Pablo II at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
UTC at HT / Juan Pablo II at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Juan Pablo II at HT / UTC at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to score last	49.3%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
UTC to score last	46.5%	46.5%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	4.3%	4.4%	—	—	22.77

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.7%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Juan Pablo II to lead by 1 at any time	58.2%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
UTC to lead by 1 at any time	54.9%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Juan Pablo II to lead by 2 at any time	27.1%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
UTC to lead by 2 at any time	24.1%	19.7%	—	—	5.07
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.0%	15.1%	—	—	6.64
Juan Pablo II to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.61
UTC to lead by 3 at any time	8.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.87

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.8%	87.4%	87.1%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.8%	78.7%	70.8%	1.11×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.3%	78.7%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	67.4%	1.07×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	58.3%	1.09×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.2%	59.1%	63.9%	0.92×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.3%	59.1%	49.6%	1.19×	1.69
3-5 goals	49.9%	48.6%	46.2%	1.05×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.0%	43.6%	44.2%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.5%	39.2%	37.1%	1.05×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.8%	39.2%	41.1%	0.95×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.9%	35.2%	26.8%	1.31×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.5%	30.3%	23.4%	1.29×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.8%	18.8%	12.7%	1.48×	5.33
7+ goals	3.6%	2.6%	1.8%	1.41×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II never behind	40.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
UTC never behind	37.5%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.2%	50.9%	46.7%	1.09×	1.96
Odd number of goals	50.8%	49.1%	53.3%	0.92×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.7%	95.4%	92.2%	1.03×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	94.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	80.6%	82.3%	85.7%	0.96×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.4%	82.3%	72.5%	1.14×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.5%	61.7%	71.6%	0.86×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	58.6%	51.3%	1.14×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	41.4%	48.7%	0.85×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	36.5%	38.3%	28.4%	1.35×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.6%	17.7%	27.5%	0.64×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	19.4%	17.7%	14.3%	1.24×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	5.3%	1.47×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	4.3%	4.6%	7.8%	0.59×	21.82

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.2%	97.2%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.0%	92.4%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.6%	75.9%	83.3%	0.91×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.1%	75.9%	65.1%	1.17×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.0%	51.9%	63.1%	0.82×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.0%	48.1%	36.9%	1.31×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.9%	24.1%	34.9%	0.69×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.4%	24.1%	16.7%	1.45×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.0%	7.6%	5.8%	1.32×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.8%	2.8%	1.9%	1.49×	35.67

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.9%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.0%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	11.2%	—	—	8.96

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.4%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.4%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.6%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.6%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC not to score in both halves	73.1%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Juan Pablo II not to score in both halves	71.5%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Juan Pablo II to score in both halves	28.5%	26.1%	—	—	3.84
UTC to score in both halves	26.9%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.8%	60.2%	53.8%	1.12×	1.66
Only Juan Pablo II scores	18.4%	16.0%	12.3%	1.30×	6.24
Only UTC scores	16.5%	16.0%	26.4%	0.61×	6.24
Neither team scores	4.3%	4.7%	7.8%	0.60×	21.51

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.6%	22.6%	21.4%	1.06×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.4%	14.3%	1.22×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	15.3%	17.4%	19.9%	0.87×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	9.2%	1.31×	8.26
6 or more goals	8.9%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.3%	4.5%	7.8%	0.57×	22.35

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.8%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	28.1%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	22.5%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	13.5%	11.1%	—	—	9.05

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.2%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.2%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
No goals in 2nd half	16.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC not to win both halves	90.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Juan Pablo II not to win both halves	89.4%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Juan Pablo II to win both halves	10.6%	11.8%	—	—	8.48
UTC to win both halves	9.2%	5.9%	—	—	16.83

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Juan Pablo II to win either half	55.2%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
UTC to win either half	51.8%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
UTC to win neither half	48.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Juan Pablo II to win neither half	44.8%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UTC not to win to nil	83.5%	83.1%	73.6%	1.13×	1.20
Juan Pablo II not to win to nil	81.6%	83.1%	87.7%	0.95×	1.20
Juan Pablo II to win to nil	18.4%	16.9%	12.3%	1.37×	5.91
UTC to win to nil	16.5%	16.9%	26.4%	0.64×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.2%	24.1%	25.0%	0.96×	4.15
Juan Pablo II by 1	20.6%	24.1%	17.9%	1.34×	4.15
UTC by 1	19.4%	17.0%	25.4%	0.67×	5.87
Juan Pablo II by 2	11.9%	11.7%	5.6%	2.09×	8.51
UTC by 2	10.6%	11.7%	13.4%	0.88×	8.51
Juan Pablo II by 3+	7.9%	7.2%	2.2%	3.31×	13.89
UTC by 3+	6.5%	7.2%	11.4%	0.63×	13.90

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.