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UTC v Los Chankas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
UTC win
38.5%
model 39.1%
Draw
23.2%
model 24.0%
Los Chankas win
38.3%
model 36.9%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.2%
  2. 1-0 8.7%
  3. 2-1 8.5%
  4. 0-1 8.5%
  5. 1-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.554.8% Under 2.545.2%
BTTS yes57.6% BTTS no42.4%
UTC 1+76.8% UTC 2+42.9%
Los Chankas 1+75.6% Los Chankas 2+41.2%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
80/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Los Chankas (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 50%
63.7% fair odds 1.57
moderate signal · 1134 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Los Chankas (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%
83.6% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out UTC.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

UTC have an estimated 38.5% win probability, against 38.3% for Los Chankas and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for UTC and 1.41 for Los Chankas.

Why UTC

Nothing in the data singles out UTC.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.41. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Los Chankas can win

Los Chankas carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1319.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for UTC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Los Chankas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

UTC: 48% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 21.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Los Chankas: 44% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

UTC are the model's most likely outcome at 38.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.46–1.41 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.52–1.43 1-1 11% 57% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to win 40.3% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Los Chankas to win 36.1% 36.3% 25.4% 1.43× 2.75
Draw 23.6% 24.5% 25.0% 0.98× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC & both teams score 21.1% 21.8% 23.6% 0.92× 4.59
UTC & not both score 19.2% 18.0% 26.4% 0.68× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
Los Chankas & both teams score 19.1% 18.0% 13.2% 1.36× 5.56
Los Chankas & not both score 17.0% 18.0% 12.3% 1.46× 5.57
Draw & not both score 4.8% 4.9% 7.8% 0.63× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC & over 1.5 31.9% 30.7% 38.0% 0.81× 3.25
Los Chankas & over 1.5 28.2% 26.1% 17.4% 1.50× 3.84
UTC & under 3.5 26.2% 26.1% 33.7% 0.77× 3.84
UTC & over 2.5 25.8% 26.1% 30.8% 0.85× 3.84
Los Chankas & under 3.5 23.9% 21.6% 19.4% 1.11× 4.63
Los Chankas & over 2.5 22.9% 21.6% 14.5% 1.49× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 17.4% 1.04× 5.55
Draw & under 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.7% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
UTC & under 2.5 14.5% 12.8% 19.2% 0.67× 7.79
UTC & over 3.5 14.1% 12.8% 16.3% 0.79× 7.79
Los Chankas & under 2.5 13.3% 12.8% 11.1% 1.16× 7.79
Los Chankas & over 3.5 12.2% 12.8% 6.2% 2.08× 7.79
UTC & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 12.0% 0.66× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 7.9% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.63
Los Chankas & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 8.2% 0.97× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 4.8% 4.8% 7.8% 0.62× 20.81
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (1UP) 57.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Los Chankas (1UP) 54.1% 52.4% — — 1.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (2UP) 40.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Los Chankas (2UP) 36.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to win 2nd half 33.6% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half drawn 33.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
Los Chankas to win 2nd half 33.0% 34.0% — — 2.94
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.8% 79.6% — — 1.26
Los Chankas over 0.5 in 2nd half 57.6% 54.4% — — 1.84
Los Chankas under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.4% 45.6% — — 2.19
Los Chankas over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.2% 20.4% — — 4.90
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 2nd half 78.4% 75.3% — — 1.33
UTC over 0.5 in 2nd half 58.0% 58.0% — — 1.72
UTC under 0.5 in 2nd half 42.0% 42.0% — — 2.38
UTC over 1.5 in 2nd half 21.6% 24.7% — — 4.05
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (+2.5) 92.4% 92.1% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
Los Chankas (+1.5) 80.6% 82.6% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
UTC (+0.5) 63.9% 63.0% 74.6% 0.84× 1.59
Los Chankas (+0.5) 59.7% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
UTC (-0.5) 40.3% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Los Chankas (-0.5) 36.1% 37.0% 25.4% 1.46× 2.70
UTC (-1.5) 19.4% 17.4% 24.6% 0.71× 5.73
UTC (-2.5) 7.6% 7.9% 11.4% 0.69× 12.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede 78.2% 78.8% 80.1% 0.98× 1.27
Los Chankas clean sheet 21.8% 21.2% 19.9% 1.07× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas clean sheet in 1st half 52.0% 50.8% — — 1.97
Los Chankas to concede in 1st half 48.1% 49.2% — — 2.03
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede in 2nd half 58.0% 57.3% — — 1.74
Los Chankas clean sheet in 2nd half 42.0% 42.7% — — 2.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 6.5 corners 85.6% 85.2% — — 1.17
Los Chankas under 5.5 corners 76.2% 76.0% — — 1.32
Los Chankas over 2.5 corners 70.8% 71.6% — — 1.40
Los Chankas under 4.5 corners 63.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Los Chankas over 3.5 corners 53.1% 53.1% — — 1.88
Los Chankas under 3.5 corners 46.9% 46.9% — — 2.13
Los Chankas over 4.5 corners 36.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Los Chankas under 2.5 corners 29.2% 28.4% — — 3.52
Los Chankas over 5.5 corners 23.8% 24.0% — — 4.17
Los Chankas over 6.5 corners 14.4% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 3.5 goals 94.3% 92.4% 97.5% 0.95× 1.08
Los Chankas under 2.5 goals 82.6% 81.5% 92.0% 0.89× 1.23
Los Chankas over 0.5 goals 76.0% 76.2% 65.9% 1.16× 1.31
Los Chankas under 1.5 goals 58.2% 59.4% 71.6% 0.83× 1.68
Los Chankas over 1.5 goals 41.8% 40.6% 28.4% 1.43× 2.47
Los Chankas under 0.5 goals 24.0% 23.8% 34.1% 0.70× 4.21
Los Chankas over 2.5 goals 17.4% 18.5% 8.0% 2.32× 5.41
Los Chankas over 3.5 goals 5.7% 7.6% 2.5% 3.01× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 1.5 in 1st half 88.7% 89.3% — — 1.12
Los Chankas under 0.5 in 1st half 56.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
Los Chankas over 0.5 in 1st half 43.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Los Chankas over 1.5 in 1st half 11.3% 10.7% — — 9.36
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas scores more in 2nd half 39.9% 37.4% — — 2.67
Los Chankas scores equally in both 37.2% 37.3% — — 2.68
Los Chankas scores more in 1st half 22.9% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (away no bet) 63.1% 61.9% 66.6% 0.93× 1.62
Draw (away no bet) 36.9% 38.1% 33.4% 1.14× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas even goals 52.9% 52.6% 56.9% 0.93× 1.90
Los Chankas odd goals 47.1% 47.4% 43.1% 1.10× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.1% 83.1% — — 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.9% 16.9% — — 5.93
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.1% 67.9% — — 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.9% 32.1% — — 3.12
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 59.5% 55.1% — — 1.82
UTC to score 2+ in a row 35.4% 36.4% — — 2.75
Los Chankas to score 2+ in a row 32.1% 28.9% — — 3.46
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.7% 19.5% — — 5.13
UTC to score 3+ in a row 12.0% 12.1% — — 8.24
Los Chankas to score 3+ in a row 10.2% 12.1% — — 8.27
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC corners (+3.5) 92.0% 89.6% — — 1.12
UTC corners (+2.5) 87.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
UTC corners (+1.5) 80.4% 79.8% — — 1.25
Los Chankas corners (+3.5) 69.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
Los Chankas corners (+2.5) 60.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
UTC corners (-1.5) 50.8% 52.4% — — 1.91
Los Chankas corners (+1.5) 49.2% 47.6% — — 2.10
UTC corners (-2.5) 40.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
UTC corners (-3.5) 30.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
Los Chankas corners (-1.5) 19.6% 20.2% — — 4.94
Los Chankas corners (-2.5) 12.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Los Chankas corners (-3.5) 8.0% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 41.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 29.2% 31.2% — — 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 78.3% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 70.8% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 69.2% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 61.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 51.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 48.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 41.3% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 38.1% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 30.8% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 29.2% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 21.7% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.9% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.72
1-0 8.4% 7.4% 12.0% 0.62× 13.51
2-1 8.7% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.51
0-1 7.9% 7.4% 8.2% 0.91× 13.51
1-2 8.1% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
0-2 5.3% 7.4% 3.1% 2.40× 13.51
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
2-2 6.2% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.51
0-0 4.8% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.29
0-3 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.30
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.16× 58.31
1-3 3.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.30
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.30
2-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.30
3-1 4.4% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.29
3-2 3.1% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.30
3-3 1.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.31
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.37× 58.32
4-0 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.31
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.31
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.73× 58.32
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 9.47× 58.32
Any other score 3.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (2nd half DNB) 50.4% 54.3% — — 1.84
Los Chankas (2nd half DNB) 49.6% 45.7% — — 2.19
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC leading at HT (DNB) 54.5% 56.3% — — 1.78
Los Chankas leading at HT (DNB) 45.5% 43.7% — — 2.29
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC or Los Chankas (12) 76.4% 75.5% 75.0% 1.01× 1.32
UTC or draw (1X) 63.9% 63.7% 74.6% 0.85× 1.57
Los Chankas or draw (X2) 59.7% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC or draw at HT 73.2% 74.5% — — 1.34
Los Chankas or draw at HT 68.0% 67.2% — — 1.49
UTC or Los Chankas at HT 58.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC or draw (1UP) 63.9% 71.7% — — 1.40
Los Chankas or draw (1UP) 59.7% 63.2% — — 1.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC or draw in 2nd half 67.0% 66.0% — — 1.52
UTC or Los Chankas in 2nd half 66.6% 66.0% — — 1.52
Los Chankas or draw in 2nd half 66.4% 66.0% — — 1.52
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.4% 61.3% — — 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (DNB) 52.7% 50.9% 66.3% 0.77× 1.96
Los Chankas (DNB) 47.3% 49.1% 33.7% 1.46× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to score first 49.1% 45.9% — — 2.18
Los Chankas to score first 46.1% 45.8% — — 2.18
No goal scored 4.8% 4.4% — — 22.71
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 59.0% 55.0% 53.8% 1.02× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.0% 45.0% 46.2% 0.97× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 48.1% 44.3% 42.8% 1.04× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 32.5% 34.6% 37.7% 0.92× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 10.9% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.5% 8.3% 8.7% 0.95× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 81.2% 82.6% 85.7% 0.96× 1.21
Both teams to score 2+ 18.8% 17.4% 14.3% 1.21× 5.75
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.7% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half 33.3% 32.8% — — 3.05
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 52.9% 54.8% — — 1.83
Both score 2nd half only 26.3% 26.7% — — 3.74
Both score 1st half only 13.9% 10.8% — — 9.30
Both score in both halves 7.0% 6.8% — — 14.76
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 79.2% 81.0% — — 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 20.8% 19.0% — — 5.27
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.9% 57.1% — — 1.75
A half without a goal 42.1% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.2% 44.2% 0.95× 2.37
4-6 goals 31.1% 30.7% 26.8% 1.15× 3.26
0-1 goals 21.1% 22.9% 27.5% 0.83× 4.36
7+ goals 3.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.02× 54.25
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to score exactly 1 34.2% 33.8% 37.7% 0.90× 2.96
Los Chankas to score exactly 2 24.5% 22.3% 20.7% 1.08× 4.49
Los Chankas to score exactly 0 24.0% 22.3% 34.1% 0.65× 4.49
Los Chankas to score 3+ 17.4% 19.5% 8.0% 2.45× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to score exactly 1 33.2% 32.6% 33.0% 0.99× 3.07
UTC to score exactly 2 25.3% 26.6% 25.0% 1.06× 3.77
UTC to score exactly 0 21.8% 23.3% 19.9% 1.17× 4.29
UTC to score 3+ 19.7% 18.8% 22.5% 0.84× 5.32
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
UTC leading at HT 32.0% 32.8% — — 3.05
Los Chankas leading at HT 26.8% 25.5% — — 3.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC -1: 2 59.7% 56.8% — — 1.76
UTC -1: X 20.8% 23.5% — — 4.26
UTC -1: 1 19.4% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:1) 59.7% 55.9% 50.2% 1.11× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 20.8% 24.2% 25.4% 0.95× 4.13
UTC (0:1) 19.4% 17.8% 24.6% 0.72× 5.61
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:2) 80.6% 82.9% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.8% 11.0% 13.4% 0.82× 9.10
UTC (0:2) 7.6% 7.7% 11.4% 0.67× 13.05
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:3) 92.4% 92.7% 88.6% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.2% 5.8% 7.6% 0.76× 17.28
UTC (0:3) 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% 0.60× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:4) 97.6% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 81.77
UTC (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 81.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (1:0) 63.9% 65.3% 74.6% 0.88× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 19.6% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.84
Los Chankas (1:0) 16.5% 17.1% 7.6% 2.25× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC (2:0) 83.5% 84.6% 92.4% 0.92× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.4% 10.3% 5.6% 1.83× 9.73
Los Chankas (2:0) 6.1% 6.4% 2.2% 2.94× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.5% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.5% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 23.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to concede 76.0% 76.0% 65.9% 1.15× 1.32
UTC clean sheet 24.0% 24.0% 34.1% 0.70× 4.17
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC clean sheet in 1st half 56.5% 62.3% — — 1.61
UTC to concede in 1st half 43.5% 37.7% — — 2.65
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to concede in 2nd half 57.6% 54.8% — — 1.82
UTC clean sheet in 2nd half 42.4% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC over 2.5 corners 86.5% 86.2% — — 1.16
UTC over 3.5 corners 74.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
UTC under 6.5 corners 65.1% 66.7% — — 1.50
UTC over 4.5 corners 61.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
UTC under 5.5 corners 52.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
UTC over 5.5 corners 47.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
UTC under 4.5 corners 38.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
UTC over 6.5 corners 34.9% 33.3% — — 3.00
UTC under 3.5 corners 25.2% 28.1% — — 3.56
UTC under 2.5 corners 13.5% 13.8% — — 7.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 3.5 goals 93.1% 92.2% 92.4% 1.00× 1.08
UTC under 2.5 goals 80.3% 82.2% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
UTC over 0.5 goals 78.2% 77.8% 80.1% 0.97× 1.29
UTC under 1.5 goals 55.0% 58.6% 52.7% 1.11× 1.71
UTC over 1.5 goals 45.0% 41.4% 47.3% 0.88× 2.42
UTC under 0.5 goals 21.8% 22.2% 19.9% 1.12× 4.50
UTC over 2.5 goals 19.7% 17.8% 22.5% 0.79× 5.61
UTC over 3.5 goals 6.9% 7.8% 7.6% 1.02× 12.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC under 1.5 in 1st half 86.0% 90.0% — — 1.11
UTC under 0.5 in 1st half 52.0% 50.6% — — 1.98
UTC over 0.5 in 1st half 48.1% 49.4% — — 2.03
UTC over 1.5 in 1st half 14.0% 10.0% — — 10.01
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC scores more in 2nd half 38.2% 38.1% — — 2.62
UTC scores equally in both 36.1% 38.1% — — 2.63
UTC scores more in 1st half 25.8% 27.8% — — 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (home no bet) 60.5% 60.0% 50.4% 1.19× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 39.5% 40.0% 49.6% 0.81× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC even goals 52.4% 50.8% 50.5% 1.00× 1.97
UTC odd goals 47.6% 49.2% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 29.3% 28.5% — — 3.51
HT 1-0 19.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 0-1 16.8% 18.6% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 10.9% 11.0% — — 9.12
HT 2-0 6.3% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.11
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.4% — — 42.10
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.4% — — 42.19
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.4% — — 42.22
HT 2-2 1.0% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC at HT / UTC at FT 23.7% 21.7% — — 4.62
Los Chankas at HT / Los Chankas at FT 19.5% 16.8% — — 5.95
Draw at HT / UTC at FT 14.1% 12.7% — — 7.88
Draw at HT / Los Chankas at FT 13.9% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
UTC at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% — — 16.54
Los Chankas at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% — — 28.86
UTC at HT / Los Chankas at FT 2.8% 3.5% — — 28.94
Los Chankas at HT / UTC at FT 2.5% 3.5% — — 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to score last 49.1% 46.4% — — 2.15
Los Chankas to score last 46.1% 46.3% — — 2.16
No goal scored 4.8% 4.4% — — 22.71
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.2% 95.5% — — 1.05
UTC to lead by 1 at any time 57.7% 54.9% — — 1.82
Los Chankas to lead by 1 at any time 54.1% 50.7% — — 1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 49.3% 44.4% — — 2.25
UTC to lead by 2 at any time 26.4% 25.2% — — 3.96
Los Chankas to lead by 2 at any time 23.2% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.0% 14.8% — — 6.74
UTC to lead by 3 at any time 9.8% 6.7% — — 14.93
Los Chankas to lead by 3 at any time 8.1% 6.7% — — 15.01
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC most corners 61.6% 60.6% — — 1.65
Los Chankas most corners 28.3% 31.1% — — 3.22
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.6% 78.7% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.8% 78.7% 70.8% 1.11× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.0% 72.3% 67.4% 1.07× 1.38
1-3 goals 61.0% 63.3% 63.9% 0.99× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.3% 58.3% 1.09× 1.58
3-6 goals 53.5% 53.2% 49.6% 1.07× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.7% 48.4% 46.2% 1.05× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 44.2% 0.99× 2.29
3-4 goals 38.9% 39.2% 37.1% 1.05× 2.55
1-2 goals 38.6% 39.2% 41.1% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 31.1% 35.2% 26.8% 1.31× 2.84
4-5 goals 26.3% 30.2% 23.4% 1.29× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.6% 14.8% 12.7% 1.17× 6.75
7+ goals 3.1% 2.6% 1.8% 1.41× 39.13
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC never behind 41.1% 48.7% — — 2.06
Los Chankas never behind 37.5% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.2% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.8% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.1% 51.8% — — 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.9% 48.2% — — 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.2% 95.4% 92.2% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 92.1% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.3% 82.3% 85.7% 0.96× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 78.9% 77.3% 72.5% 1.07× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 65.8% 66.3% 71.6% 0.93× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 56.6% 58.6% 51.3% 1.14× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 43.4% 41.4% 48.7% 0.85× 2.42
Over 3.5 goals 34.2% 33.7% 28.4% 1.18× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 21.1% 22.7% 27.5% 0.82× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 17.7% 17.7% 14.3% 1.24× 5.65
Over 5.5 goals 7.9% 7.7% 5.3% 1.47× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 4.8% 4.6% 7.8% 0.59× 21.80
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.7% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.2% 92.4% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 78.8% 75.9% 83.3% 0.91× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.8% 72.4% 65.1% 1.11× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.9% 55.8% 63.1% 0.88× 1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.1% 44.2% 36.9% 1.20× 2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.2% 27.6% 34.9% 0.79× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 21.2% 24.1% 16.7% 1.45× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.8% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.18
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.50× 35.60
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 87.4% 89.0% — — 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 70.7% 71.3% — — 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 65.4% 68.6% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 34.6% 31.4% — — 3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half 29.3% 28.7% — — 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.6% 11.0% — — 9.12
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.3% 82.9% — — 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.1% 79.5% — — 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.3% 53.1% — — 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.7% 46.9% — — 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.9% 20.5% — — 4.88
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.7% 17.1% — — 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to score in both halves 74.9% 74.0% — — 1.35
UTC not to score in both halves 72.1% 73.8% — — 1.35
UTC to score in both halves 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.82
Los Chankas to score in both halves 25.1% 26.0% — — 3.84
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 59.0% 58.6% 53.8% 1.09× 1.71
Only UTC scores 19.2% 16.1% 26.4% 0.61× 6.23
Only Los Chankas scores 17.0% 16.0% 12.3% 1.30× 6.24
Neither team scores 4.8% 4.6% 7.8% 0.60× 21.53
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 23.0% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 2 goals 22.3% 22.6% 21.4% 1.06× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 16.5% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 16.3% 17.5% 19.9% 0.88× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 9.8% 7.6% 9.2% 0.82× 13.13
6 or more goals 7.9% 7.6% 5.3% 1.45× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 4.8% 4.5% 7.8% 0.58× 22.33
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.1% 37.2% — — 2.69
No goals in 1st half 29.3% 28.7% — — 3.49
2 goals in 1st half 22.0% 21.5% — — 4.66
3+ goals in 1st half 12.6% 10.9% — — 9.21
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.3% 51.1% — — 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 31.0% 33.8% — — 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 17.7% 16.8% — — 5.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to win both halves 91.2% 94.1% — — 1.06
UTC not to win both halves 89.3% 88.0% — — 1.14
UTC to win both halves 10.7% 12.0% — — 8.35
Los Chankas to win both halves 8.8% 5.9% — — 17.03
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UTC to win either half 54.9% 54.4% — — 1.84
Los Chankas to win either half 51.0% 54.3% — — 1.84
Los Chankas to win neither half 49.0% 45.7% — — 2.19
UTC to win neither half 45.1% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to win to nil 83.0% 83.1% 87.7% 0.95× 1.20
UTC not to win to nil 80.8% 83.1% 73.6% 1.13× 1.20
UTC to win to nil 19.2% 16.9% 26.4% 0.64× 5.91
Los Chankas to win to nil 17.0% 16.9% 12.3% 1.37× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.6% 24.1% 25.0% 0.96× 4.15
UTC by 1 20.8% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.15
Los Chankas by 1 19.6% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.86
UTC by 2 11.8% 11.8% 13.4% 0.88× 8.51
Los Chankas by 2 10.4% 11.8% 5.6% 2.09× 8.51
UTC by 3+ 7.6% 7.2% 11.4% 0.63× 13.91
Los Chankas by 3+ 6.1% 7.2% 2.2% 3.31× 13.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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