V-Varen Nagasaki v Shimizu S-Pulse — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · JPN-J League · 2627

JPN-J League results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

V-Varen Nagasaki

06:00 UTC

Shimizu S-Pulse

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 1,003h before kick-off

V-Varen Nagasaki win

43.1%

model 40.7%

Draw

27.4%

model 28.3%

Shimizu S-Pulse win

29.5%

model 30.9%

432729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 13.6%
1-1 13.0%
0-1 11.4%
0-0 10.8%
2-1 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	37.8%	Under 2.5	62.2%
BTTS yes	43.9%	BTTS no	56.1%
V-Varen Nagasaki 1+	69.9%	V-Varen Nagasaki 2+	33.7%
Shimizu S-Pulse 1+	63.3%	Shimizu S-Pulse 2+	26.5%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.00. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

52.3% fair odds 1.91

moderate signal · 1995 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Shimizu S-Pulse not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

V-Varen Nagasaki carry the stronger rating, 1462 Elo against 1423.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

V-Varen Nagasaki have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 29.5% for Shimizu S-Pulse and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse.

Why V-Varen Nagasaki

V-Varen Nagasaki carry the stronger rating, 1462 Elo against 1423.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. A combined 2.20 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.20 to 1.00. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Shimizu S-Pulse can win

Nothing in the data singles out Shimizu S-Pulse.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for V-Varen Nagasaki, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Shimizu S-Pulse, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

V-Varen Nagasaki: 43% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Shimizu S-Pulse: 44% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

V-Varen Nagasaki are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	412831	1.20–1.00	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	393031	1.06–0.91	1-0 15%	31%	39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to win	38.7%	36.4%	43.0%	0.85×	2.75
Shimizu S-Pulse to win	30.9%	30.4%	31.1%	0.98×	3.29
Draw	30.5%	30.4%	26.1%	1.16×	3.29

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki & not both score	26.6%	25.2%	25.0%	1.01×	3.97
Shimizu S-Pulse & not both score	21.1%	21.8%	17.8%	1.22×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	16.7%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.57
Draw & not both score	13.7%	13.3%	7.0%	1.89×	7.53
V-Varen Nagasaki & both teams score	12.1%	13.3%	18.1%	0.73×	7.54
Shimizu S-Pulse & both teams score	9.8%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.00

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 3.5	32.8%	30.8%	33.1%	0.93×	3.25
Draw & under 2.5	26.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.28×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.28×	3.84
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 3.5	26.7%	26.1%	23.4%	1.11×	3.84
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 1.5	23.5%	21.6%	30.3%	0.71×	4.63
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 2.5	22.9%	21.6%	20.0%	1.08×	4.63
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	13.4%	1.34×	5.56
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	21.3%	0.85×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	23.1%	0.78×	5.56
V-Varen Nagasaki & under 1.5	15.1%	18.0%	12.8%	1.40×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	13.7%	12.8%	7.0%	1.83×	7.79
Shimizu S-Pulse & under 1.5	13.0%	12.8%	10.0%	1.28×	7.79
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 2.5	12.0%	12.8%	17.8%	0.72×	7.79
V-Varen Nagasaki & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.63
Shimizu S-Pulse & over 3.5	4.2%	4.8%	7.8%	0.62×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.82
Draw & over 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (1UP)	50.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Shimizu S-Pulse (1UP)	43.8%	38.6%	—	—	2.59

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (2UP)	38.7%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Shimizu S-Pulse (2UP)	30.9%	30.4%	—	—	3.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	42.9%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
V-Varen Nagasaki to win 2nd half	30.4%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Shimizu S-Pulse to win 2nd half	26.7%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.6%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 in 2nd half	58.0%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.0%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.4%	12.9%	—	—	7.77

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.7%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.8%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.2%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.3%	11.6%	—	—	8.62

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (+2.5)	95.4%	96.3%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Shimizu S-Pulse (+1.5)	84.8%	82.5%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
V-Varen Nagasaki (+0.5)	69.1%	68.7%	68.9%	1.00×	1.46
Shimizu S-Pulse (+0.5)	61.3%	62.9%	57.0%	1.10×	1.59
V-Varen Nagasaki (-0.5)	38.7%	37.1%	43.0%	0.86×	2.70
Shimizu S-Pulse (-0.5)	30.9%	31.3%	31.1%	1.01×	3.19
V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)	15.2%	17.5%	18.1%	0.96×	5.73
V-Varen Nagasaki (-2.5)	4.6%	3.7%	6.3%	0.59×	27.01

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede	65.2%	72.3%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet	34.8%	27.7%	24.7%	1.12×	3.61

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet in 1st half	63.5%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede in 1st half	36.5%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse clean sheet in 2nd half	54.8%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Shimizu S-Pulse to concede in 2nd half	45.2%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Shimizu S-Pulse under 6.5 corners	76.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Shimizu S-Pulse over 3.5 corners	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Shimizu S-Pulse under 5.5 corners	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Shimizu S-Pulse over 4.5 corners	51.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Shimizu S-Pulse under 4.5 corners	48.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Shimizu S-Pulse over 5.5 corners	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Shimizu S-Pulse under 3.5 corners	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Shimizu S-Pulse over 6.5 corners	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Shimizu S-Pulse under 2.5 corners	18.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 3.5 goals	98.6%	97.5%	95.9%	1.02×	1.03
Shimizu S-Pulse under 2.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	87.8%	1.05×	1.08
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 goals	77.0%	76.3%	68.3%	1.12×	1.31
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 goals	59.7%	59.4%	68.1%	0.87×	1.68
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 goals	40.3%	40.6%	31.9%	1.27×	2.47
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 goals	23.0%	23.7%	31.7%	0.75×	4.21
Shimizu S-Pulse over 2.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	12.2%	0.63×	13.07
Shimizu S-Pulse over 3.5 goals	1.4%	2.5%	4.1%	0.62×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse under 1.5 in 1st half	94.8%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Shimizu S-Pulse under 0.5 in 1st half	69.5%	69.8%	—	—	1.43
Shimizu S-Pulse over 0.5 in 1st half	30.5%	30.2%	—	—	3.32
Shimizu S-Pulse over 1.5 in 1st half	5.2%	5.9%	—	—	16.94

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse scores equally in both	48.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
Shimizu S-Pulse scores more in 2nd half	31.9%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Shimizu S-Pulse scores more in 1st half	19.4%	17.9%	—	—	5.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (away no bet)	55.9%	57.4%	62.2%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.1%	42.6%	37.8%	1.13×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse even goals	58.1%	56.9%	54.2%	1.05×	1.76
Shimizu S-Pulse odd goals	41.9%	43.1%	45.8%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.7%	92.4%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	—	—	13.17

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	54.9%	51.1%	—	—	1.96
Not both halves under 1.5	45.1%	48.9%	—	—	2.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	39.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 2+ in a row	23.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 2+ in a row	18.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.15
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+ in a row	6.4%	5.5%	—	—	18.05
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 3+ in a row	4.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.19

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+2.5)	81.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+3.5)	80.9%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (+1.5)	72.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+2.5)	72.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (+1.5)	61.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-1.5)	38.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-1.5)	27.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-2.5)	27.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Shimizu S-Pulse corners (-3.5)	19.1%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-2.5)	18.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
V-Varen Nagasaki corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	30.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	24.2%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.9%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	66.9%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	66.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 9.5 corners	56.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	33.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 10.5 corners	33.1%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	24.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.1%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.1%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.24
0-0	13.7%	11.5%	7.0%	1.63×	8.72
0-1	13.0%	11.5%	10.0%	1.15×	8.72
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.72
2-0	7.8%	7.4%	7.3%	1.01×	13.51
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	9.8%	0.75×	13.51
0-2	5.8%	7.4%	3.6%	2.06×	13.51
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.51
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.31
0-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.32
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.3%	0.73×	58.31
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
2-2	3.2%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.9%	0.91×	58.31
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
3-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.30
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.58×	58.31
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.32
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.32
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.3%	1.37×	58.32
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.66×	58.32
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.49×	58.32
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (2nd half DNB)	53.2%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Shimizu S-Pulse (2nd half DNB)	46.8%	47.1%	—	—	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT (DNB)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Shimizu S-Pulse leading at HT (DNB)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki or Shimizu S-Pulse (12)	69.5%	69.6%	73.9%	0.94×	1.44
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1X)	69.1%	69.6%	68.9%	1.01×	1.44
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (X2)	61.3%	63.6%	57.0%	1.12×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw at HT	79.1%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw at HT	72.6%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
V-Varen Nagasaki or Shimizu S-Pulse at HT	48.4%	52.5%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw (1UP)	69.1%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw (1UP)	61.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki or draw in 2nd half	73.3%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Shimizu S-Pulse or draw in 2nd half	69.6%	65.7%	—	—	1.52
V-Varen Nagasaki or Shimizu S-Pulse in 2nd half	57.1%	57.9%	—	—	1.73

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	72.7%	71.7%	—	—	1.39
Neither half drawn	27.3%	28.3%	—	—	3.54

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (DNB)	55.6%	58.0%	58.0%	1.00×	1.72
Shimizu S-Pulse (DNB)	44.4%	42.0%	42.0%	1.00×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score first	46.4%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Shimizu S-Pulse to score first	39.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	13.7%	10.3%	—	—	9.75

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	61.4%	56.6%	49.5%	1.14×	1.77
Both teams to score	38.6%	43.4%	50.5%	0.86×	2.31

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	55.5%	47.5%	40.2%	1.18×	2.10
Both score & over 2.5	25.5%	33.3%	37.2%	0.90×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.4%	13.4%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	5.9%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.4%	89.0%	86.3%	1.03×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	6.6%	11.0%	13.8%	0.80×	9.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.1%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.9%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	72.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Both score 2nd half only	16.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Both score 1st half only	9.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.61
Both score in both halves	2.1%	4.8%	—	—	20.64

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.9%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.1%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	62.0%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
A goal in each half	38.0%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	42.1%	47.2%	0.89×	2.37
0-1 goals	41.9%	42.1%	29.5%	1.43×	2.37
4-6 goals	13.2%	16.9%	20.9%	0.81×	5.91
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	2.7%	0.69×	54.47

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 0	40.3%	37.3%	31.9%	1.17×	2.68
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Shimizu S-Pulse to score exactly 2	16.6%	19.6%	19.7%	0.99×	5.11
Shimizu S-Pulse to score 3+	6.4%	8.5%	12.2%	0.70×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	36.3%	0.98×	2.81
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 0	34.8%	32.6%	24.7%	1.32×	3.07
V-Varen Nagasaki to score exactly 2	19.4%	18.8%	24.5%	0.77×	5.33
V-Varen Nagasaki to score 3+	9.1%	10.3%	14.8%	0.70×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	51.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
V-Varen Nagasaki leading at HT	27.4%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Shimizu S-Pulse leading at HT	20.9%	20.7%	—	—	4.84

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki -1: 2	61.3%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
V-Varen Nagasaki -1: X	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
V-Varen Nagasaki -1: 1	15.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:1)	61.3%	61.3%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.2%	25.0%	0.97×	4.13
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:1)	15.2%	17.8%	18.1%	0.98×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:2)	84.8%	83.0%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	11.0%	12.0%	0.91×	9.11
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:2)	4.6%	3.8%	6.3%	0.60×	26.60

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:3)	95.4%	96.6%	93.8%	1.03×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.5%	2.4%	4.2%	0.56×	42.06
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	2.2%	1.08×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (0:4)	98.9%	98.1%	97.8%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	82.01
V-Varen Nagasaki (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.9%	1.30×	82.08

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (1:0)	69.1%	70.1%	68.9%	1.02×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61
Shimizu S-Pulse (1:0)	10.7%	12.7%	11.9%	1.07×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki (2:0)	89.3%	88.5%	88.1%	1.00×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.9%	6.4%	6.1%	1.05×	15.68
Shimizu S-Pulse (2:0)	2.8%	2.3%	5.9%	0.39×	43.66

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.6%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Halves equal	30.2%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede	59.7%	60.7%	68.1%	0.89×	1.65
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet	40.3%	39.3%	31.9%	1.23×	2.55

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 1st half	69.5%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 1st half	30.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.35

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet in 2nd half	58.0%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
V-Varen Nagasaki to concede in 2nd half	42.0%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 6.5 corners	82.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 corners	76.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
V-Varen Nagasaki under 5.5 corners	71.6%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 corners	59.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
V-Varen Nagasaki under 4.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
V-Varen Nagasaki over 4.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 corners	40.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
V-Varen Nagasaki over 5.5 corners	28.4%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 corners	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
V-Varen Nagasaki over 6.5 corners	17.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 3.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	94.8%	1.02×	1.04
V-Varen Nagasaki under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	85.2%	1.08×	1.08
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 goals	71.5%	74.2%	60.8%	1.22×	1.35
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 goals	65.2%	67.9%	75.3%	0.90×	1.47
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 goals	34.8%	32.1%	24.7%	1.30×	3.12
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 goals	28.5%	25.8%	39.2%	0.66×	3.88
V-Varen Nagasaki over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	14.8%	0.52×	12.87
V-Varen Nagasaki over 3.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	5.2%	0.70×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
V-Varen Nagasaki under 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
V-Varen Nagasaki over 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.84
V-Varen Nagasaki over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	5.3%	—	—	18.92

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki scores equally in both	45.0%	42.3%	—	—	2.36
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 2nd half	32.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.02
V-Varen Nagasaki scores more in 1st half	22.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse (home no bet)	50.3%	51.3%	54.4%	0.94×	1.95
Draw (home no bet)	49.7%	48.7%	45.6%	1.07×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki even goals	56.1%	55.3%	52.7%	1.05×	1.81
V-Varen Nagasaki odd goals	44.0%	44.7%	47.3%	0.95×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	44.1%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.3%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	7.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.47
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.00
HT 0-2	2.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
Any other HT score	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.18
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.21
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.28

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.62
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	21.4%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Draw at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	15.9%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	15.5%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Draw at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	14.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Shimizu S-Pulse at HT / V-Varen Nagasaki at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
V-Varen Nagasaki at HT / Shimizu S-Pulse at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki to score last	46.4%	46.4%	—	—	2.15
Shimizu S-Pulse to score last	39.9%	38.9%	—	—	2.57
No goal scored	13.7%	9.7%	—	—	10.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.3%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 1 at any time	50.9%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 1 at any time	43.8%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.0%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 2 at any time	19.0%	15.0%	—	—	6.68
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 2 at any time	14.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.84
V-Varen Nagasaki to lead by 3 at any time	5.5%	6.7%	—	—	15.00
Shimizu S-Pulse to lead by 3 at any time	3.5%	1.6%	—	—	61.31

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse most corners	49.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
V-Varen Nagasaki most corners	38.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
1-4 goals	81.3%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.6%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
2-6 goals	57.7%	59.1%	68.0%	0.87×	1.69
2-5 goals	56.6%	59.1%	65.0%	0.91×	1.69
1-2 goals	54.9%	53.2%	46.6%	1.14×	1.88
2-4 goals	53.2%	53.2%	59.2%	0.90×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	47.2%	0.92×	2.29
3-6 goals	30.9%	35.2%	44.1%	0.80×	2.84
3-5 goals	29.8%	30.2%	41.1%	0.74×	3.31
3-4 goals	26.4%	30.2%	35.3%	0.86×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.2%	14.8%	20.9%	0.71×	6.75
4-5 goals	12.1%	14.8%	18.0%	0.82×	6.75
5-6 goals	4.5%	2.6%	8.9%	0.29×	39.02
7+ goals	0.4%	2.6%	2.7%	0.96×	39.21

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
V-Varen Nagasaki never behind	42.5%	48.5%	—	—	2.06
Shimizu S-Pulse never behind	35.4%	43.9%	—	—	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.9%	53.3%	0.96×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.1%	46.7%	1.05×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.6%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	40.4%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.5%	95.4%	94.4%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.1%	95.4%	88.6%	1.08×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	86.3%	87.6%	93.0%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	76.6%	1.14×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	68.6%	66.3%	53.4%	1.24×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	58.1%	58.6%	70.5%	0.83×	1.71
Under 1.5 goals	41.9%	41.4%	29.5%	1.40×	2.42
Over 2.5 goals	31.4%	33.7%	46.6%	0.72×	2.97
Under 0.5 goals	13.7%	12.4%	7.0%	1.76×	8.06
Over 3.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	23.4%	0.53×	8.06
Over 4.5 goals	4.9%	4.6%	11.4%	0.40×	21.84
Over 5.5 goals	1.5%	4.6%	5.6%	0.81×	21.90

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.2%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.2%	94.0%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.6%	92.4%	87.0%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.4%	81.1%	69.5%	1.17×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.2%	55.8%	38.8%	1.44×	1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.8%	44.2%	61.2%	0.72×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.6%	18.9%	30.5%	0.62×	5.30
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.4%	7.6%	13.0%	0.59×	13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.8%	6.0%	0.47×	35.61
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.8%	2.7%	1.02×	35.64

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.0%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	55.9%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	44.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.7%	14.3%	—	—	6.98
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.0%	4.1%	—	—	24.53

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.3%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.3%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to score in both halves	87.2%	85.5%	—	—	1.17
V-Varen Nagasaki not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
V-Varen Nagasaki to score in both halves	16.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
Shimizu S-Pulse to score in both halves	12.8%	14.5%	—	—	6.92

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	38.6%	39.9%	50.5%	0.79×	2.51
Only V-Varen Nagasaki scores	26.6%	26.0%	25.0%	1.04×	3.84
Only Shimizu S-Pulse scores	21.1%	22.2%	17.8%	1.25×	4.50
Neither team scores	13.7%	11.0%	7.0%	1.57×	9.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	28.2%	24.9%	22.7%	1.10×	4.02
Exactly 2 goals	26.8%	24.9%	24.1%	1.03×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	17.7%	17.5%	23.3%	0.75×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.7%	12.1%	7.0%	1.73×	8.24
Exactly 4 goals	8.7%	7.6%	12.2%	0.62×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	3.4%	4.5%	5.9%	0.75×	22.39
6 or more goals	1.5%	4.5%	5.6%	0.79×	22.42

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	44.1%	40.3%	—	—	2.48
1 goal in 1st half	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	14.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.25
3+ goals in 1st half	5.0%	4.1%	—	—	24.53

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.6%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
2+ goals in 2nd half	31.7%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	31.7%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to win both halves	94.4%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win both halves	91.7%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
V-Varen Nagasaki to win both halves	8.3%	5.9%	—	—	16.92
Shimizu S-Pulse to win both halves	5.6%	5.8%	—	—	17.12

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse to win neither half	57.9%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
V-Varen Nagasaki to win neither half	50.5%	54.2%	—	—	1.85
V-Varen Nagasaki to win either half	49.5%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Shimizu S-Pulse to win either half	42.1%	40.8%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Shimizu S-Pulse not to win to nil	78.9%	78.1%	82.2%	0.95×	1.28
V-Varen Nagasaki not to win to nil	73.4%	75.3%	75.0%	1.00×	1.33
V-Varen Nagasaki to win to nil	26.6%	24.7%	25.0%	0.99×	4.06
Shimizu S-Pulse to win to nil	21.1%	21.9%	17.8%	1.23×	4.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	30.5%	27.6%	26.1%	1.06×	3.62
V-Varen Nagasaki by 1	23.5%	24.1%	25.0%	0.96×	4.15
Shimizu S-Pulse by 1	20.2%	24.1%	19.4%	1.24×	4.15
V-Varen Nagasaki by 2	10.6%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.51
Shimizu S-Pulse by 2	7.9%	7.2%	6.1%	1.18×	13.91
V-Varen Nagasaki by 3+	4.6%	2.7%	6.3%	0.44×	36.76
Shimizu S-Pulse by 3+	2.8%	2.7%	5.9%	0.46×	36.82