Valencia v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 8 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 1.19
Goals − xG
+0.47 – +0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
44.7%
Draw
30.1%
Alaves win
25.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.14 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.53 xGAlaves 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 11' |
 Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 11' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 14' |
Alaves |
Jonny | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 19' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 20' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 20' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | José Gayá |
| 24' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 30' |
Alaves |
Ángel Pérez | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carles Aleñá |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Umar Sadiq |
| 51' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Umar Sadiq |
| 52' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Guido Rodríguez |
| 53' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 59' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 65' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ángel Pérez |
| 68' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Alaves |
Lucas Boyé | 0.38 | From Corner | — | Goal | Denis Suárez |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Denis Suárez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Boyé |
| 76' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 84' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | José Gayá |
| 85' |
Alaves |
Mariano | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 89' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | André Almeida |
| 93' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 98' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 99' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 100' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.36 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| Ángel Pérez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Jonny DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jon Pacheco Dozagarat DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Antonio Martínez FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jon Guridi MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Youssef Lekhedim Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Carlos Benavídez DC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Denis Suárez Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| Ander Guevara Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Sadiq FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 1.28 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Unai Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Guido Rodríguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| Javier Guerra AMC | 85 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Largie Ramazani AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.38 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Filip Ugrinic DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| Luis Rioja AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.28 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| Raba Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Diego López Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| André Almeida Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 |