Valencia v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 10
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.37 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.39 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
27.1%
Draw
26.7%
Athletic Club win
46.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.35 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 0.39 xGAthletic Club 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 10' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Diego López |
| 19' |
Athletic Club |
Yuri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Íñigo Lekue |
| 34' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | André Almeida |
| 43' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Íñigo Lekue |
| 48' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 71' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Unai Gómez |
| 82' |
Athletic Club |
Unai Gómez | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iñaki Williams |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Berenguer AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Íñigo Lekue DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.76 |
| Gorka Guruzeta FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Beñat Prados DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Adama Boiro AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 0.51 |
| Iñaki Williams Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Mikel Jauregizar Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maroan Sannadi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Cristhian Mosquera DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Barrenechea MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Guerra MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Gayá DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| André Almeida FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| Diego López ML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Iván Jaime Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafa Mir Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fran Pérez Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Aarons Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |