Valencia v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.02 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
26.2%
Draw
26.5%
Athletic Club win
47.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.79–1.19 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.91–1.27 | 0-1 14% | 37% | 43% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.02 xGAthletic Club 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Navarro |
| 13' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Valencia |
Baptiste Santamaria | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 25' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Navarro |
| 29' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oihan Sancet |
| 32' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Athletic Club |
Oihan Sancet | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Dimitri Foulquier | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 51' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 53' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Diego López |
| 64' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | César Tárrega |
| 66' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Athletic Club |
Aymeric Laporte | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Valencia |
Baptiste Santamaria | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Goal | Javier Guerra |
| 89' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Beltrán |
| 90' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.59 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Baptiste Santamaria |
| 97' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 97' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Baptiste Santamaria |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Aitor Paredes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Areso DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Roberto Navarro AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Oihan Sancet AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alex Berenguer AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aymeric Laporte Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maroan Sannadi Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Rego Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Guerra MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 1.17 |
| Baptiste Santamaria MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.69 | 1.17 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego López ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| José Gayá DL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Raba FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Beltrán Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1.00 |
| André Almeida Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.73 |