Valencia v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Valencia

15:00 UTC

Athletic Club

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 939h before kick-off

Valencia win

43.7%

model 41.8%

Draw

27.4%

model 26.4%

Athletic Club win

28.8%

model 31.8%

442729

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.6%
1-0 10.6%
0-1 9.0%
2-1 8.7%
0-0 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	47.4%	Under 2.5	52.6%
BTTS yes	52.0%	BTTS no	48.0%
Valencia 1+	75.1%	Valencia 2+	40.5%
Athletic Club 1+	69.2%	Athletic Club 2+	33.0%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time · usually 38%

54.9% fair odds 1.82

moderate signal · 271 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Athletic Club not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 85%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1055 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Valencia have created 1.26 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45.
At home Valencia average 1.00 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Valencia have an estimated 43.7% win probability, against 28.8% for Athletic Club and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.39 for Valencia and 1.18 for Athletic Club.

Why Valencia

Valencia have created 1.26 xG a match over their last five while Athletic Club have allowed 1.45. At home Valencia average 1.00 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.39 to 1.18. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Athletic Club can win

Athletic Club have created 1.47 xG a match over their last five while Valencia have allowed 1.59. Away from home Athletic Club average 1.32 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Valencia were missing 1.03 expected goal involvements a match against 0.65.

Key players

Valencia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Largie Ramazani (0.30), Umar Sadiq (0.29), Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld (0.27). Athletic Club's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Iñaki Williams (0.41), Gorka Guruzeta (0.37), Nico Williams (0.28).

Availability

2 of Valencia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Valencia's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Athletic Club's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Valencia: 38% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Athletic Club: 41% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Valencia are the model's most likely outcome at 43.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWDWWDLLL last 10 scored 12 from 12.6 xG conceded 17 from 15.9 xG

Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWLLDLLLWW last 10 scored 15 from 14.7 xG conceded 18 from 14.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	422632	1.39–1.18	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	372834	1.19–1.13	1-1 13%	41%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to win	41.8%	43.9%	46.8%	0.94×	2.28
Athletic Club to win	31.8%	28.9%	28.1%	1.03×	3.46
Draw	26.4%	27.5%	25.2%	1.09×	3.63

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia & not both score	23.1%	22.7%	25.3%	0.90×	4.41
Valencia & both teams score	18.7%	17.8%	21.7%	0.82×	5.61
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.8%	20.2%	0.88×	5.61
Athletic Club & not both score	17.2%	17.8%	14.6%	1.22×	5.62
Athletic Club & both teams score	14.6%	12.1%	13.7%	0.89×	8.23
Draw & not both score	7.7%	7.3%	5.1%	1.43×	13.70

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia & over 1.5	31.1%	33.0%	34.1%	0.97×	3.03
Valencia & under 3.5	30.2%	33.0%	33.0%	1.00×	3.03
Athletic Club & under 3.5	23.8%	21.5%	21.7%	0.99×	4.65
Valencia & over 2.5	23.7%	21.5%	28.0%	0.77×	4.66
Athletic Club & over 1.5	22.8%	21.5%	21.2%	1.01×	4.66
Draw & under 2.5	20.2%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.66
Draw & under 3.5	20.2%	21.5%	20.1%	1.07×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	17.6%	20.2%	0.87×	5.68
Valencia & under 2.5	18.0%	17.6%	18.9%	0.93×	5.68
Athletic Club & over 2.5	17.5%	17.6%	16.7%	1.06×	5.68
Athletic Club & under 2.5	14.3%	12.7%	11.6%	1.10×	7.87
Valencia & over 3.5	11.6%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.88
Valencia & under 1.5	10.6%	12.7%	12.8%	0.99×	7.88
Athletic Club & under 1.5	9.0%	7.5%	7.1%	1.06×	13.33
Athletic Club & over 3.5	8.0%	7.5%	6.6%	1.14×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	7.7%	7.5%	5.1%	1.47×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.35
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.5%	5.2%	1.43×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (1UP)	57.2%	62.1%	63.2%	0.98×	1.61
Athletic Club (1UP)	48.5%	44.6%	47.1%	0.95×	2.24

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (2UP)	41.8%	46.6%	48.7%	0.96×	2.15
Athletic Club (2UP)	31.8%	30.3%	29.7%	1.02×	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to win 2nd half	39.7%	37.5%	39.5%	0.95×	2.67
2nd half drawn	33.7%	33.8%	33.0%	1.03×	2.96
Athletic Club to win 2nd half	26.6%	27.5%	27.7%	0.99×	3.64

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 2nd half	83.3%	81.8%	84.5%	0.97×	1.22
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 2nd half	51.9%	51.5%	51.7%	1.00×	1.94
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 2nd half	48.1%	48.5%	48.3%	1.00×	2.06
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 2nd half	16.7%	18.2%	15.5%	1.17×	5.50

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.9%	71.3%	80.0%	0.89×	1.40
Valencia over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	65.2%	58.7%	1.11×	1.53
Valencia under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	34.8%	41.3%	0.84×	2.88
Valencia over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.1%	28.7%	20.0%	1.44×	3.48

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (+2.5)	92.7%	92.3%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Athletic Club (+1.5)	80.3%	82.4%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Valencia (+0.5)	68.2%	69.2%	71.9%	0.96×	1.45
Athletic Club (+0.5)	58.2%	56.9%	53.2%	1.07×	1.76
Valencia (-0.5)	41.8%	43.1%	46.8%	0.92×	2.32
Athletic Club (-0.5)	31.8%	30.8%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Valencia (-1.5)	19.7%	17.6%	20.8%	0.84×	5.70
Valencia (-2.5)	7.3%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.06

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede	75.1%	76.1%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
Athletic Club clean sheet	24.9%	23.9%	19.6%	1.22×	4.18

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club clean sheet in 1st half	65.4%	68.0%	51.9%	1.31×	1.47
Athletic Club to concede in 1st half	34.6%	32.0%	48.1%	0.66×	3.13

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to concede in 2nd half	61.9%	63.7%	58.7%	1.09×	1.57
Athletic Club clean sheet in 2nd half	38.1%	36.3%	41.3%	0.88×	2.76

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club over 2.5 corners	79.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Athletic Club under 6.5 corners	76.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Athletic Club under 5.5 corners	65.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Athletic Club over 3.5 corners	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Athletic Club under 4.5 corners	51.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Athletic Club over 4.5 corners	49.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Athletic Club under 3.5 corners	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Athletic Club over 5.5 corners	34.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Athletic Club over 6.5 corners	23.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Athletic Club under 2.5 corners	20.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 3.5 goals	96.8%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Athletic Club under 2.5 goals	88.4%	89.2%	90.0%	0.99×	1.12
Athletic Club over 0.5 goals	69.3%	67.4%	69.7%	0.97×	1.48
Athletic Club under 1.5 goals	67.0%	67.3%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
Athletic Club over 1.5 goals	33.0%	32.7%	31.9%	1.03×	3.06
Athletic Club under 0.5 goals	30.8%	32.6%	30.3%	1.08×	3.07
Athletic Club over 2.5 goals	11.6%	10.8%	10.0%	1.09×	9.22
Athletic Club over 3.5 goals	3.2%	2.7%	2.7%	1.00×	36.41

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club under 1.5 in 1st half	92.5%	93.3%	93.3%	1.00×	1.07
Athletic Club under 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	63.6%	63.4%	1.00×	1.57
Athletic Club over 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	36.4%	36.6%	1.00×	2.75
Athletic Club over 1.5 in 1st half	7.5%	6.7%	6.7%	0.99×	14.96

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club scores equally in both	41.7%	42.2%	42.2%	1.00×	2.37
Athletic Club scores more in 2nd half	38.1%	38.9%	37.1%	1.05×	2.57
Athletic Club scores more in 1st half	20.2%	21.5%	20.8%	1.03×	4.65

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (away no bet)	61.3%	58.3%	65.1%	0.90×	1.72
Draw (away no bet)	38.7%	41.7%	34.9%	1.19×	2.40

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club even goals	54.7%	52.3%	53.9%	0.97×	1.91
Athletic Club odd goals	45.3%	47.7%	46.1%	1.04×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.0%	86.5%	86.9%	1.00×	1.16
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.0%	13.5%	13.1%	1.03×	7.40

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	61.3%	66.1%	62.4%	1.06×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	38.7%	33.9%	37.6%	0.90×	2.95

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	52.5%	52.9%	52.3%	1.01×	1.89
Valencia to score 2+ in a row	32.7%	33.9%	34.3%	0.99×	2.95
Athletic Club to score 2+ in a row	25.2%	25.1%	23.6%	1.07×	3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row	17.4%	17.8%	18.9%	0.94×	5.62
Valencia to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.2%	13.0%	0.94×	8.22
Athletic Club to score 3+ in a row	6.9%	7.3%	6.4%	1.15×	13.66

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club corners (+3.5)	83.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Valencia corners (+3.5)	83.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Athletic Club corners (+2.5)	75.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Valencia corners (+2.5)	75.6%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Athletic Club corners (+1.5)	66.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Valencia corners (+1.5)	66.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Athletic Club corners (-1.5)	33.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Valencia corners (-1.5)	33.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Athletic Club corners (-2.5)	24.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Valencia corners (-2.5)	24.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Athletic Club corners (-3.5)	16.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Valencia corners (-3.5)	16.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.6%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	29.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	63.6%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	36.4%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	31.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	27.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 12.5 corners	20.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.6%	11.6%	15.1%	0.77×	8.61
1-0	10.6%	11.6%	12.8%	0.90×	8.62
0-1	9.0%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.76
2-1	8.7%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.76
0-0	7.7%	7.3%	5.1%	1.42×	13.76
1-2	7.4%	7.3%	8.3%	0.87×	13.76
2-0	7.4%	7.3%	6.2%	1.17×	13.76
0-2	5.3%	7.3%	4.6%	1.58×	13.77
2-2	5.1%	7.3%	4.4%	1.67×	13.77
3-1	4.0%	1.8%	3.6%	0.50×	55.41
1-3	2.9%	1.8%	1.9%	0.97×	55.44
3-0	3.4%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.42
0-3	2.1%	1.8%	2.0%	0.91×	55.46
2-3	2.0%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.46
3-2	2.4%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.45
4-0	1.2%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.48
4-1	1.4%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.47
Any other score	2.1%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
0-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.49
1-4	0.9%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
2-4	0.6%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.49
3-3	0.9%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.49
3-4	0.3%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-2	0.8%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (2nd half DNB)	59.9%	58.9%	58.7%	1.00×	1.70
Athletic Club (2nd half DNB)	40.1%	41.1%	41.3%	1.00×	2.43

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club leading at HT (DNB)	51.6%	54.9%	37.7%	1.45×	1.82
Valencia leading at HT (DNB)	48.4%	45.1%	62.3%	0.72×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia or Athletic Club (12)	73.6%	72.5%	74.8%	0.97×	1.38
Valencia or draw (1X)	68.2%	71.1%	71.9%	0.99×	1.41
Athletic Club or draw (X2)	58.2%	56.1%	53.2%	1.06×	1.78

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club or draw at HT	75.9%	78.8%	64.5%	1.22×	1.27
Valencia or draw at HT	74.2%	71.3%	78.5%	0.91×	1.40
Valencia or Athletic Club at HT	49.9%	47.9%	56.8%	0.84×	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia or draw (1UP)	68.2%	75.1%	78.2%	0.96×	1.33
Athletic Club or draw (1UP)	58.2%	63.9%	60.1%	1.06×	1.57

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia or draw in 2nd half	73.4%	72.5%	72.3%	1.00×	1.38
Valencia or Athletic Club in 2nd half	66.3%	66.2%	67.0%	0.99×	1.51
Athletic Club or draw in 2nd half	60.3%	62.5%	60.5%	1.03×	1.60

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.9%	66.1%	62.2%	1.06×	1.51
Neither half drawn	33.1%	33.9%	37.8%	0.90×	2.95

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (DNB)	56.7%	62.7%	62.5%	1.00×	1.60
Athletic Club (DNB)	43.3%	37.3%	37.5%	0.99×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to score first	50.0%	46.2%	55.4%	0.83×	2.16
Athletic Club to score first	42.4%	41.4%	39.6%	1.05×	2.42
No goal scored	7.7%	6.3%	5.1%	1.22×	15.97

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.0%	53.1%	55.3%	0.96×	1.88
Not both teams to score	48.0%	46.9%	44.7%	1.05×	2.13

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	40.1%	42.3%	35.4%	1.19×	2.37
Both score & over 2.5	39.5%	37.5%	40.3%	0.93×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	12.6%	11.7%	15.1%	0.78×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.7%	9.5%	0.91×	11.56

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.6%	85.4%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.4%	14.6%	13.8%	1.06×	6.85

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.9%	69.5%	71.4%	0.97×	1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.1%	30.5%	28.6%	1.07×	3.27

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.4%	57.8%	60.3%	0.96×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	28.1%	24.8%	23.1%	1.07×	4.04
Both score 1st half only	8.5%	6.5%	11.2%	0.57×	15.49
Both score in both halves	4.0%	4.9%	5.6%	0.87×	20.46

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.5%	85.5%	83.3%	1.03×	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	12.5%	14.5%	16.7%	0.86×	6.92

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.4%	54.6%	45.2%	1.21×	1.83
A goal in each half	47.6%	45.4%	54.8%	0.83×	2.20

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.9%	45.9%	49.8%	0.92×	2.18
0-1 goals	27.3%	27.7%	24.8%	1.12×	3.61
4-6 goals	24.1%	22.8%	23.4%	0.97×	4.39
7+ goals	1.6%	1.9%	2.2%	0.86×	52.16

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to score exactly 1	36.3%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Athletic Club to score exactly 0	30.8%	33.0%	30.3%	1.09×	3.03
Athletic Club to score exactly 2	21.4%	24.0%	22.0%	1.09×	4.16
Athletic Club to score 3+	11.6%	13.3%	10.0%	1.34×	7.51

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to score exactly 1	34.6%	30.5%	38.4%	0.80×	3.28
Valencia to score exactly 0	24.9%	23.0%	19.6%	1.18×	4.35
Valencia to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.0%	22.7%	1.01×	4.35
Valencia to score 3+	16.4%	18.5%	19.7%	0.94×	5.42

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.1%	52.1%	43.2%	1.21×	1.92
Athletic Club leading at HT	25.8%	28.7%	21.5%	1.33×	3.49
Valencia leading at HT	24.1%	21.2%	35.5%	0.60×	4.72

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia -1: 2	58.2%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Valencia -1: X	22.1%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Valencia -1: 1	19.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:1)	58.2%	55.2%	53.2%	1.04×	1.81
Draw (0:1)	22.1%	24.5%	26.2%	0.94×	4.08
Valencia (0:1)	19.7%	18.3%	20.8%	0.88×	5.46

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:2)	80.3%	83.5%	79.2%	1.05×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	12.4%	11.6%	11.0%	1.06×	8.63
Valencia (0:2)	7.3%	7.1%	10.0%	0.72×	14.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:3)	92.7%	92.6%	90.0%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.1%	6.8%	7.1%	0.95×	14.80
Valencia (0:3)	2.2%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.35

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club (0:4)	97.8%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	2.4%	0.52×	81.28
Valencia (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	0.7%	1.64×	81.86

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (1:0)	68.2%	70.6%	71.9%	0.98×	1.42
Draw (1:0)	18.8%	16.5%	17.7%	0.93×	6.08
Athletic Club (1:0)	13.1%	11.7%	10.6%	1.10×	8.56

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia (2:0)	86.9%	89.3%	89.4%	1.00×	1.12
Draw (2:0)	8.9%	6.6%	6.8%	0.96×	15.26
Athletic Club (2:0)	4.2%	2.7%	3.9%	0.71×	36.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.8%	57.9%	51.3%	1.13×	1.73
Halves equal	24.0%	23.2%	22.5%	1.03×	4.31
1st half highest scoring	19.2%	17.2%	26.3%	0.65×	5.81

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to concede	69.3%	67.2%	69.7%	0.96×	1.49
Valencia clean sheet	30.8%	32.8%	30.3%	1.08×	3.05

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia clean sheet in 1st half	63.9%	63.4%	63.4%	1.00×	1.58
Valencia to concede in 1st half	36.1%	36.6%	36.6%	1.00×	2.73

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to concede in 2nd half	51.9%	51.2%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Valencia clean sheet in 2nd half	48.1%	48.8%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia over 2.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Valencia under 6.5 corners	77.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Valencia under 5.5 corners	65.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Valencia over 3.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Valencia under 4.5 corners	51.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Valencia over 4.5 corners	48.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Valencia under 3.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Valencia over 5.5 corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Valencia over 6.5 corners	23.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Valencia under 2.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Valencia under 2.5 goals	83.6%	82.6%	80.3%	1.03×	1.21
Valencia over 0.5 goals	75.1%	76.8%	80.4%	0.96×	1.30
Valencia under 1.5 goals	59.5%	56.0%	57.8%	0.97×	1.79
Valencia over 1.5 goals	40.5%	44.0%	42.2%	1.04×	2.27
Valencia under 0.5 goals	24.9%	23.2%	19.6%	1.18×	4.32
Valencia over 2.5 goals	16.4%	17.4%	19.7%	0.89×	5.73
Valencia over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	7.3%	1.05×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia under 1.5 in 1st half	93.2%	93.2%	86.0%	1.08×	1.07
Valencia under 0.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.7%	51.9%	1.32×	1.46
Valencia over 0.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.3%	48.1%	0.65×	3.20
Valencia over 1.5 in 1st half	6.8%	6.8%	14.0%	0.49×	14.64

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia scores more in 2nd half	47.9%	49.8%	40.0%	1.25×	2.01
Valencia scores equally in both	36.2%	38.7%	32.5%	1.19×	2.59
Valencia scores more in 1st half	15.9%	16.1%	27.7%	0.58×	6.23

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	45.3%	50.6%	47.2%	1.07×	1.98
Athletic Club (home no bet)	54.7%	49.4%	52.8%	0.94×	2.02

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia even goals	53.1%	50.3%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Valencia odd goals	46.9%	49.7%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.7%	40.5%	32.1%	1.26×	2.47
HT 0-1	18.7%	18.9%	16.2%	1.17×	5.29
HT 1-0	17.8%	18.9%	22.7%	0.83×	5.29
HT 1-1	8.0%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.99
HT 0-2	4.2%	2.5%	3.1%	0.81×	39.76
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.5%	6.2%	0.40×	39.79
Any other HT score	2.0%	2.5%	4.5%	0.56×	39.89
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.90
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.90
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.5%	1.2%	2.00×	39.98

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Valencia at FT	19.9%	16.8%	18.0%	0.94×	5.95
Valencia at HT / Valencia at FT	18.6%	16.8%	26.5%	0.64×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.9%	16.8%	14.0%	1.20×	5.96
Athletic Club at HT / Athletic Club at FT	16.9%	16.8%	12.9%	1.31×	5.96
Draw at HT / Athletic Club at FT	13.3%	11.9%	11.5%	1.04×	8.37
Athletic Club at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.6%	6.1%	1.07×	15.26
Valencia at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	5.2%	0.65×	29.34
Athletic Club at HT / Valencia at FT	3.3%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.37
Valencia at HT / Athletic Club at FT	1.6%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.44

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia to score last	50.0%	49.3%	55.7%	0.89×	2.03
Athletic Club to score last	42.4%	40.3%	39.3%	1.03×	2.48
No goal scored	7.7%	6.3%	5.1%	1.22×	15.97

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.3%	93.7%	94.9%	0.99×	1.07
Valencia to lead by 1 at any time	57.2%	59.5%	63.2%	0.94×	1.68
Athletic Club to lead by 1 at any time	48.5%	46.2%	47.1%	0.98×	2.17
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	43.6%	42.1%	41.6%	1.01×	2.37
Valencia to lead by 2 at any time	25.5%	26.1%	26.5%	0.99×	3.84
Athletic Club to lead by 2 at any time	18.3%	17.6%	15.5%	1.14×	5.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	14.6%	11.4%	16.7%	0.68×	8.78
Valencia to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	7.1%	12.2%	0.58×	14.13
Athletic Club to lead by 3 at any time	5.5%	7.0%	4.6%	1.52×	14.27

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club most corners	44.6%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Valencia most corners	44.2%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.7%	87.9%	89.2%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	81.5%	81.2%	1.00×	1.23
2-6 goals	71.1%	73.6%	73.1%	1.01×	1.36
2-5 goals	68.0%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	66.6%	68.3%	69.5%	0.98×	1.46
2-4 goals	60.8%	62.2%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
2-3 goals	46.9%	48.0%	49.8%	0.96×	2.08
3-6 goals	45.8%	48.0%	47.6%	1.01×	2.09
1-2 goals	44.9%	43.7%	45.3%	0.96×	2.29
3-5 goals	42.7%	43.6%	44.0%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	35.6%	38.9%	36.0%	1.08×	2.57
4-6 goals	24.1%	24.8%	23.4%	1.06×	4.04
4-5 goals	21.1%	24.7%	19.8%	1.25×	4.05
5-6 goals	10.2%	13.4%	11.7%	1.15×	7.45
7+ goals	1.6%	2.0%	2.2%	0.89×	50.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Valencia never behind	43.8%	50.7%	52.9%	0.96×	1.97
Athletic Club never behind	35.1%	45.4%	36.8%	1.23×	2.20

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.7%	50.2%	53.7%	0.94×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.3%	49.8%	46.3%	1.07×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.7%	55.3%	53.6%	1.03×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	41.3%	44.7%	46.4%	0.96×	2.24

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.7%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.3%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.3%	95.6%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	92.3%	93.0%	94.9%	0.98×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.2%	88.8%	86.2%	1.03×	1.13
Under 3.5 goals	74.3%	72.6%	74.5%	0.98×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	72.6%	75.2%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	52.6%	53.5%	50.3%	1.06×	1.87
Over 2.5 goals	47.4%	46.5%	49.7%	0.94×	2.15
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	27.4%	24.8%	1.11×	3.65
Over 3.5 goals	25.7%	27.4%	25.5%	1.07×	3.66
Over 4.5 goals	11.8%	11.2%	13.8%	0.81×	8.90
Under 0.5 goals	7.7%	7.0%	5.1%	1.37×	14.25
Over 5.5 goals	4.7%	4.4%	5.9%	0.74×	22.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.3%	97.3%	97.7%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.0%	92.9%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.3%	88.2%	84.3%	1.05×	1.13
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	67.1%	68.0%	66.3%	1.02×	1.47
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.4%	62.4%	66.7%	0.94×	1.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.6%	37.6%	33.3%	1.13×	2.66
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	32.9%	32.0%	33.7%	0.95×	3.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.7%	11.8%	15.7%	0.76×	8.45
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	5.0%	7.1%	6.4%	1.12×	14.04
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.7%	2.7%	2.3%	1.18×	36.51

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.1%	92.3%	89.9%	1.03×	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.2%	78.1%	70.8%	1.10×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	60.2%	67.9%	0.89×	1.66
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	39.8%	32.1%	1.24×	2.51
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.8%	21.9%	29.2%	0.75×	4.57
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.9%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.98

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.0%	81.8%	1.00×	1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.8%	80.3%	79.7%	1.01×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	51.8%	53.7%	0.97×	1.93
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	48.2%	46.3%	1.04×	2.08
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.2%	19.7%	20.4%	0.97×	5.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.55

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to score in both halves	81.3%	81.6%	81.4%	1.00×	1.23
Valencia not to score in both halves	78.6%	78.0%	73.7%	1.06×	1.28
Valencia to score in both halves	21.4%	22.0%	26.3%	0.83×	4.55
Athletic Club to score in both halves	18.7%	18.4%	18.6%	0.99×	5.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.0%	54.9%	55.3%	0.99×	1.82
Only Valencia scores	23.1%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.38
Only Athletic Club scores	17.2%	16.2%	14.6%	1.11×	6.17
Neither team scores	7.7%	6.6%	5.1%	1.30×	15.10

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	24.6%	25.7%	0.96×	4.06
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	21.6%	24.3%	0.89×	4.63
Exactly 1 goals	19.7%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	13.9%	12.4%	11.8%	1.04×	8.10
Exactly 0 goals	7.7%	7.6%	5.1%	1.49×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	7.2%	7.6%	8.1%	0.94×	13.13
6 or more goals	4.7%	4.4%	5.9%	0.74×	22.95

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	41.7%	40.5%	32.1%	1.26×	2.47
1 goal in 1st half	36.5%	37.3%	38.8%	0.96×	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	15.9%	18.3%	19.2%	0.95×	5.48
3+ goals in 1st half	5.9%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.98

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.6%	47.4%	46.3%	1.02×	2.11
1 goal in 2nd half	31.1%	33.1%	35.6%	0.93×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	18.3%	18.4%	18.2%	1.01×	5.44

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to win both halves	93.2%	93.5%	94.6%	0.99×	1.07
Valencia not to win both halves	90.4%	93.4%	88.1%	1.06×	1.07
Valencia to win both halves	9.6%	6.6%	11.9%	0.56×	15.10
Athletic Club to win both halves	6.9%	6.5%	5.4%	1.22×	15.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club to win neither half	54.5%	53.9%	56.2%	0.96×	1.86
Valencia to win either half	54.2%	53.9%	63.0%	0.85×	1.86
Valencia to win neither half	45.8%	46.1%	37.0%	1.25×	2.17
Athletic Club to win either half	45.5%	46.1%	43.8%	1.05×	2.17

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletic Club not to win to nil	82.8%	83.5%	85.4%	0.98×	1.20
Valencia not to win to nil	76.9%	77.2%	74.7%	1.03×	1.30
Valencia to win to nil	23.1%	22.8%	25.3%	0.90×	4.38
Athletic Club to win to nil	17.2%	16.5%	14.6%	1.13×	6.05

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.4%	27.9%	25.2%	1.11×	3.59
Valencia by 1	22.1%	23.9%	26.2%	0.91×	4.19
Athletic Club by 1	18.8%	17.1%	17.7%	0.97×	5.86
Valencia by 2	12.4%	11.7%	11.0%	1.07×	8.54
Athletic Club by 2	8.9%	7.0%	6.8%	1.03×	14.19
Valencia by 3+	7.3%	7.0%	10.0%	0.71×	14.23
Athletic Club by 3+	4.2%	2.8%	3.9%	0.74×	35.12