Valencia v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 23 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 11
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+1.15 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
19.7%
Draw
21.6%
Barcelona win
58.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 13 from 13.5 expected and conceded 13 from 13.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLWDWWDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.5 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Barcelona have scored 23 from 21.3 expected and conceded 8 from 9.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWLWWW last 10
scored 23
from 21.3 xG
conceded 8
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–2.09 | 1-2 9% | 68% | 66% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 1.85 xGBarcelona 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Barcelona |
Ronald Araújo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 5' |
 Valencia |
Diego López | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Unai Núñez |
| 10' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 10' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diego López |
| 18' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 20' |
Barcelona |
Álex Balde | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 22' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gavi |
| 24' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 27' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 28' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Marcus Rashford |
| 46' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 49' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 54' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 60' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ferrán Torres |
| 62' |
Valencia |
Unai Núñez | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 65' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 66' |
Barcelona |
Xavi Espart | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 69' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Barcelona |
Andreas Christensen | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Barcelona |
Andreas Christensen | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Álex Balde |
| 96' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Rioja MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| Unai Núñez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.87 |
| Javier Guerra FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 1.04 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Jesús Vázquez DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.68 |
| Diego López ML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.98 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierry Correia Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Almeida Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Álex Balde DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Gavi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| Ferrán Torres AMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| Marc Bernal DMC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Eric Garcia DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Ronald Araújo DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Xavi Espart Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andreas Christensen Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| João Cancelo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |