Valencia v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 16
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.79 – 0.30
Goals − xG
+0.23 – +0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
33.7%
Draw
28.8%
Espanyol win
37.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.43–1.13 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.77 xGEspanyol 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 9' |
Espanyol |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 13' |
 Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 13' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.72 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lucas Beltrán |
| 23' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 35' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 35' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 49' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 53' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kike García |
| 56' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike García |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 58' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.96 | Open Play | — | Goal | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 67' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 73' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 73' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Umar Sadiq |
| 75' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 78' |
Valencia |
Copete | 0.00 | Open Play | — | Own Goal | — |
| 83' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 91' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Beltrán |
| 93' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 0.95 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.74 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Jesús Vázquez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.78 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.77 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pepelu MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 65 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ML | 64 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.96 | 1.76 |
| Diego López Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Javier Guerra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Baptiste Santamaria Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Rubén Sánchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ramón Terrats ML | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jofre Carreras MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| Pere Milla FW | 52 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 52 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kike García Sub | 38 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 1.32 |
| Edu Expósito Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Tyrhys Dolan Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |