Valencia v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.31 – -0.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
44.5%
Draw
27.4%
Girona win
28.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia are finishing below their chances — 2.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLLLLWLDD last 10
scored 9
from 11.5 xG
conceded 16
from 15.9 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.73–1.11 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 2.31 xGGirona 1.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' |
 Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Javier Guerra |
| 17' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 18' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Largie Ramazani |
| 29' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Beltrán |
| 44' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | José Gayá |
| 46' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
 Girona |
Claudio Echeverri | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Javier Guerra |
| 55' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Claudio Echeverri |
| 58' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | José Gayá |
| 61' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alejandro Francés |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Guido Rodríguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego López |
| 89' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 89' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 93' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Girona |
Vitor Reis | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 96' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Daley Blind DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Claudio Echeverri FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Pepelu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Largie Ramazani ML | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| Umar Sadiq FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.98 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| Renzo Saravia DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Javier Guerra MC | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| Filip Ugrinic Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Diego López Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.69 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Unai Núñez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| André Almeida Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |