Valencia v Levante — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 21 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
3 – 0
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.71 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
45.0%
Draw
23.1%
Levante win
31.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Levante are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLWWWLLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 17.8 xG
conceded 16
from 14.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.43 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.83–1.52 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 1.71 xGLevante 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Levante attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Valencia |
Thierry Correia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Levante |
Oriol Rey | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeremy Toljan |
| 11' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thierry Correia |
| 14' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Levante |
Oriol Rey | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Etta Eyong |
| 27' |
Levante |
Etta Eyong | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Unai Vencedor |
| 30' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Beltrán |
| 39' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 42' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | André Almeida |
| 77' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | José Gayá |
| 82' |
Levante |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Roger Brugué |
| 88' |
Levante |
Morales | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 98' |
Levante |
Carlos Álvarez | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrián De la Fuente |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pepelu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.71 |
| Diego López AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Javier Guerra DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| André Almeida AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Hugo Duro Sub | 34 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raba Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Baptiste Santamaria Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dimitri Foulquier Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Levante
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Álvarez MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jeremy Toljan DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián De la Fuente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Manuel Sánchez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Matías Moreno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Vencedor MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Unai Elgezabal MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oriol Rey MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Etta Eyong FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Iván Romero ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goduine Koyalipou Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Roger Brugué Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Kervin Arriaga Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morales Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jon Ander Olasagasti Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |