Valencia v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 14 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 1.00
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -0.53
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
42.4%
Draw
28.3%
Rayo Vallecano win
29.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 13 from 13.5 expected and conceded 13 from 13.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLWDWWDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.5 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.26–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.28 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 0.94 xGRayo Vallecano 1.53 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eray Cömert |
| 7' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.74 | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — | |
| 8' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pepelu |
| 19' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gerard Gumbau |
| 29' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 34' |
Valencia |
Eray Cömert | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | José Gayá |
| 35' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 39' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Javier Guerra |
| 42' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Diego López |
| 44' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 46' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 48' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 72' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 90' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 96' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Alfonso Espino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jorge De Frutos |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Rioja ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Diego López MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.49 |
| Eray Cömert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| José Gayá DL | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.32 |
| Javier Guerra FW | 64 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Pepelu MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai Núñez Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Renzo Saravia DR | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Filip Ugrinic Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Díaz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alfonso Espino AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pep Chavarría DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Gerard Gumbau DMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.35 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Fran Pérez AMR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge De Frutos Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Alemão Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Ciss Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrei Ratiu Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |