Valencia v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 25 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-1.30 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
41.8%
Draw
25.0%
Real Betis win
33.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLWLDDL last 10
scored 7
from 10.9 xG
conceded 17
from 16.1 xG
Real Betis are finishing below their chances — 2.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWWDWLD last 10
scored 16
from 18.2 xG
conceded 14
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.23 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 1.30 xGReal Betis 0.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Valencia |
Ryunosuke Sato | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 5' |
 Real Betis |
Ángel Ortiz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 11' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 11' |
Valencia |
Ryunosuke Sato | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 20' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 23' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 26' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 35' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Júnior Firpo |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Fornals |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Ortiz |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Ryunosuke Sato | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Valencia |
Ryunosuke Sato | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesús Vázquez |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 49' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 54' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Guido Rodríguez |
| 60' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 62' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 62' |
Valencia |
Mouctar Diakhaby | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Gómez |
| 69' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Real Betis |
Troy Parrott | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Héctor Bellerín |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Troy Parrott |
| 82' |
Real Betis |
Pablo García | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fran García |
| 84' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javier Guerra |
| 88' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 91' |
Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryunosuke Sato |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Jesús Vázquez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Valencia |
Luis Rioja | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Valencia |
Jesús Vázquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Deossa AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Antony AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Diego Llorente DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Facundo Bernal DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Pablo Fornals DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Ángel Ortiz DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Isco Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fran García Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Troy Parrott Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.60 |
| Héctor Bellerín Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pablo García Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryunosuke Sato MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Mouctar Diakhaby DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesús Vázquez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Pepelu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Guerra MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Filip Ugrinic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| David Otorbi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aliou Dieng Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |