Valencia v Real Sociedad — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 20 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 22
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
12 – 15
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 1.07
Goals − xG
+0.47 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyValencia win
43.2%
model 42.9%
Draw
27.3%
model 25.3%
Real Sociedad win
29.5%
model 31.8%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.0%
- 1-0 9.5%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 0-1 8.0%
- 1-2 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.1% | Under 2.5 | 47.9% |
| BTTS yes | 55.7% | BTTS no | 44.3% |
| Valencia 1+ | 77.8% | Valencia 2+ | 44.3% |
| Real Sociedad 1+ | 71.6% | Real Sociedad 2+ | 35.8% |
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
99/100
Data quality
100/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Even goals in 2nd half
Odd/Even 2HT · usually 50%
51.6% fair odds 1.94
moderate signal · 2360 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Real Sociedad not to win to nil
Win to nil · usually 85%
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band
Positive factors
- Valencia carry the stronger rating, 1525 Elo against 1489.
- Valencia have created 1.04 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.99.
- At home Valencia average 1.00 xG a match.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Valencia have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.5% for Real Sociedad and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.50 for Valencia and 1.26 for Real Sociedad.
Why Valencia
Valencia carry the stronger rating, 1525 Elo against 1489. Valencia have created 1.04 xG a match over their last five while Real Sociedad have allowed 1.99. At home Valencia average 1.00 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.50 to 1.26. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Real Sociedad can win
Real Sociedad have created 1.28 xG a match over their last five while Valencia have allowed 1.54. Away from home Real Sociedad average 0.85 xG a match.
Key players
Valencia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Largie Ramazani (0.30), Umar Sadiq (0.29), Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld (0.27). Real Sociedad's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mikel Oyarzabal (0.49), Orri Óskarsson (0.34), Brais Méndez (0.25).
Availability
2 of Valencia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Valencia's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Real Sociedad's top three contributors did not start their last match. Real Sociedad changed goalkeeper for their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Valencia: 47% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.23 xG a match from set pieces. Real Sociedad: 49% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.33 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-20 15:09 · team_stats 2026-09-20 06:07 · availability 2026-09-20 15:12 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Valencia are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 99/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia are finishing below their chances — 3.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DLLLLWLDDL last 10
scored 7
from 10.9 xG
conceded 17
from 16.1 xG
Real Sociedad are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWDWLWWWW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 18
from 17.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.50–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg | 1.61–1.31 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.56–1.36 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 59% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win | 48.8% | 47.2% | 46.6% | 1.01× | 2.12 |
| Real Sociedad to win | 27.0% | 27.9% | 28.6% | 0.98× | 3.59 |
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.5% | 24.9% | 0.98× | 4.09 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia & not both score | 24.9% | 21.8% | 25.1% | 0.87× | 4.58 |
| Valencia & both teams score | 23.9% | 21.8% | 21.7% | 1.01× | 4.58 |
| Draw & both teams score | 18.4% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.89× | 5.57 |
| Real Sociedad & both teams score | 14.0% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 0.95× | 7.52 |
| Real Sociedad & not both score | 13.0% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 0.90× | 7.53 |
| Draw & not both score | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 1.67× | 12.01 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia & over 1.5 | 39.2% | 34.8% | 33.9% | 1.03× | 2.87 |
| Valencia & under 3.5 | 31.7% | 30.8% | 32.7% | 0.94× | 3.25 |
| Valencia & over 2.5 | 31.2% | 30.8% | 28.0% | 1.10× | 3.25 |
| Real Sociedad & over 1.5 | 20.2% | 21.6% | 21.5% | 1.00× | 4.63 |
| Real Sociedad & under 3.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 21.8% | 0.83× | 5.56 |
| Valencia & under 2.5 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 18.7% | 0.96× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 18.4% | 18.0% | 20.1% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Valencia & over 3.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 1.29× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 17.1% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 0.90× | 5.56 |
| Real Sociedad & over 2.5 | 16.2% | 18.0% | 17.0% | 1.06× | 5.56 |
| Real Sociedad & under 2.5 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 1.10× | 7.78 |
| Valencia & under 1.5 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 0.62× | 12.62 |
| Real Sociedad & over 3.5 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.14× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.55× | 12.63 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 1.55× | 12.63 |
| Real Sociedad & under 1.5 | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 1.10× | 12.63 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.59× | 12.63 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (1UP) | 64.2% | 63.2% | 63.0% | 1.00× | 1.58 |
| Real Sociedad (1UP) | 45.4% | 43.4% | 47.3% | 0.92× | 2.31 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (2UP) | 48.8% | 49.5% | 48.4% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
| Real Sociedad (2UP) | 27.0% | 25.0% | 30.1% | 0.83× | 4.01 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win 2nd half | 44.8% | 41.2% | 39.1% | 1.05× | 2.43 |
| 2nd half drawn | 31.7% | 34.3% | 33.2% | 1.03× | 2.92 |
| Real Sociedad to win 2nd half | 23.5% | 23.1% | 27.8% | 0.83× | 4.33 |
2nd half away goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 2nd half | 84.0% | 84.1% | 84.5% | 1.00× | 1.19 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 2nd half | 51.0% | 53.0% | 52.1% | 1.02× | 1.89 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 2nd half | 49.0% | 47.0% | 47.9% | 0.98× | 2.13 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 2nd half | 16.0% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 1.03× | 6.29 |
2nd half home goals O/U 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia under 1.5 in 2nd half | 69.6% | 71.3% | 80.0% | 0.89× | 1.40 |
| Valencia over 0.5 in 2nd half | 67.0% | 71.2% | 58.5% | 1.22× | 1.41 |
| Valencia under 0.5 in 2nd half | 33.1% | 28.8% | 41.5% | 0.69× | 3.47 |
| Valencia over 1.5 in 2nd half | 30.4% | 28.7% | 20.0% | 1.43× | 3.49 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (+2.5) | 88.9% | 88.5% | 89.9% | 0.98× | 1.13 |
| Real Sociedad (+1.5) | 74.0% | 73.7% | 79.3% | 0.93× | 1.36 |
| Valencia (+0.5) | 73.0% | 73.7% | 71.4% | 1.03× | 1.36 |
| Real Sociedad (+0.5) | 51.2% | 52.5% | 53.4% | 0.98× | 1.91 |
| Valencia (-0.5) | 48.8% | 47.5% | 46.6% | 1.02× | 2.10 |
| Real Sociedad (-0.5) | 27.0% | 26.3% | 28.6% | 0.92× | 3.80 |
| Valencia (-1.5) | 26.0% | 26.3% | 20.7% | 1.27× | 3.80 |
| Valencia (-2.5) | 11.1% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 1.14× | 8.70 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to concede | 81.2% | 81.4% | 80.4% | 1.01× | 1.23 |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 18.8% | 18.6% | 19.6% | 0.95× | 5.38 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad clean sheet in 1st half | 56.8% | 58.1% | 52.0% | 1.12× | 1.72 |
| Real Sociedad to concede in 1st half | 43.2% | 41.9% | 48.0% | 0.87× | 2.39 |
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to concede in 2nd half | 67.0% | 66.5% | 58.5% | 1.14× | 1.51 |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet in 2nd half | 33.1% | 33.5% | 41.5% | 0.81× | 2.98 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad over 2.5 corners | 80.6% | 81.4% | — | — | 1.23 |
| Real Sociedad under 6.5 corners | 75.7% | 76.0% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Real Sociedad over 3.5 corners | 65.9% | 67.6% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Real Sociedad under 5.5 corners | 64.0% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Real Sociedad over 4.5 corners | 50.3% | 53.0% | — | — | 1.89 |
| Real Sociedad under 4.5 corners | 49.7% | 47.0% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Real Sociedad over 5.5 corners | 36.0% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Real Sociedad under 3.5 corners | 34.1% | 32.4% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Real Sociedad over 6.5 corners | 24.3% | 24.0% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Real Sociedad under 2.5 corners | 19.4% | 18.6% | — | — | 5.37 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 3.5 goals | 96.8% | 97.5% | 97.2% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Real Sociedad under 2.5 goals | 88.3% | 87.9% | 89.7% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | 67.9% | 70.1% | 0.97× | 1.47 |
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 goals | 66.9% | 67.9% | 67.9% | 1.00× | 1.47 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 32.1% | 32.1% | 1.00× | 3.12 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 goals | 30.7% | 32.1% | 29.9% | 1.07× | 3.12 |
| Real Sociedad over 2.5 goals | 11.7% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 1.17× | 8.24 |
| Real Sociedad over 3.5 goals | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.90× | 39.85 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.9% | 94.1% | 92.8% | 1.01× | 1.06 |
| Real Sociedad under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.6% | 64.4% | 63.3% | 1.02× | 1.55 |
| Real Sociedad over 0.5 in 1st half | 37.4% | 35.6% | 36.7% | 0.97× | 2.81 |
| Real Sociedad over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 0.82× | 16.98 |
Away highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad scores equally in both | 41.8% | 44.1% | 41.8% | 1.05× | 2.27 |
| Real Sociedad scores more in 2nd half | 36.9% | 36.5% | 37.3% | 0.98× | 2.74 |
| Real Sociedad scores more in 1st half | 21.3% | 22.1% | 21.0% | 1.05× | 4.53 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (away no bet) | 66.9% | 66.4% | 65.1% | 1.02× | 1.51 |
| Draw (away no bet) | 33.1% | 33.6% | 34.9% | 0.96× | 2.98 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad even goals | 54.7% | 52.7% | 53.5% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| Real Sociedad odd goals | 45.3% | 47.3% | 46.5% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 84.9% | 83.0% | 86.5% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 17.0% | 13.5% | 1.26× | 5.87 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 67.0% | 68.4% | 62.7% | 1.09× | 1.46 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 31.6% | 37.3% | 0.85× | 3.17 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 58.5% | 55.2% | 52.6% | 1.05× | 1.81 |
| Valencia to score 2+ in a row | 41.2% | 38.2% | 34.4% | 1.11× | 2.62 |
| Real Sociedad to score 2+ in a row | 24.1% | 19.6% | 23.9% | 0.82× | 5.10 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 21.8% | 19.6% | 19.1% | 1.02× | 5.11 |
| Valencia to score 3+ in a row | 15.8% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 1.25× | 6.11 |
| Real Sociedad to score 3+ in a row | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 0.86× | 17.68 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia corners (+3.5) | 83.8% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Real Sociedad corners (+3.5) | 81.8% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Valencia corners (+2.5) | 76.5% | 74.8% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Real Sociedad corners (+2.5) | 74.0% | 70.8% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Valencia corners (+1.5) | 67.4% | 65.9% | — | — | 1.52 |
| Real Sociedad corners (+1.5) | 64.5% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Valencia corners (-1.5) | 35.5% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-1.5) | 32.6% | 34.1% | — | — | 2.93 |
| Valencia corners (-2.5) | 26.0% | 29.2% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-2.5) | 23.5% | 25.2% | — | — | 3.96 |
| Valencia corners (-3.5) | 18.2% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Real Sociedad corners (-3.5) | 16.2% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.94 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-8 corners | 39.2% | 34.0% | — | — | 2.94 |
| 12+ corners | 30.8% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 30.1% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 corners | 77.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Over 7.5 corners | 71.2% | 72.5% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 69.2% | 67.8% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 60.8% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 60.1% | 63.2% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50.2% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 49.8% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 39.9% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 39.2% | 36.8% | — | — | 2.72 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 30.8% | 32.2% | — | — | 3.11 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 28.8% | 27.5% | — | — | 3.64 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 22.9% | 23.4% | — | — | 4.27 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.1% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.9% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 0.76× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 0.58× | 13.50 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 0.76× | 13.50 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 1.03× | 13.50 |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 0.90× | 13.50 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 1.22× | 13.50 |
| 0-0 | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.48× | 13.50 |
| 2-2 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.74× | 13.50 |
| 3-1 | 5.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.10× | 13.50 |
| 0-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 0.37× | 58.33 |
| 0-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.34 |
| 0-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 2.01× | 58.35 |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.34 |
| 1-4 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 3.52× | 58.35 |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.74× | 58.34 |
| 2-4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.82× | 58.35 |
| 3-0 | 4.5% | 1.7% | 4.5% | 0.38× | 58.33 |
| 3-2 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 0.54× | 58.34 |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.76× | 58.35 |
| 3-4 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.70× | 58.35 |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.01× | 58.34 |
| 4-1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.83× | 58.34 |
| 4-2 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.28× | 58.35 |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.35× | 58.35 |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 14.09× | 58.35 |
| Any other score | 3.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 0.56× | 58.33 |
DNB 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (2nd half DNB) | 65.6% | 70.0% | 58.5% | 1.20× | 1.43 |
| Real Sociedad (2nd half DNB) | 34.4% | 30.0% | 41.5% | 0.72× | 3.33 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia leading at HT (DNB) | 55.9% | 58.3% | 62.1% | 0.94× | 1.72 |
| Real Sociedad leading at HT (DNB) | 44.1% | 41.7% | 37.9% | 1.10× | 2.40 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia or Real Sociedad (12) | 75.8% | 75.5% | 75.1% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Valencia or draw (1X) | 73.0% | 72.1% | 71.4% | 1.01× | 1.39 |
| Real Sociedad or draw (X2) | 51.2% | 52.8% | 53.4% | 0.99× | 1.90 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia or draw at HT | 76.0% | 79.8% | 78.4% | 1.02× | 1.25 |
| Real Sociedad or draw at HT | 69.6% | 66.5% | 64.6% | 1.03× | 1.50 |
| Valencia or Real Sociedad at HT | 54.4% | 47.8% | 56.8% | 0.84× | 2.09 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia or draw (1UP) | 73.0% | 80.0% | 77.8% | 1.03× | 1.25 |
| Real Sociedad or draw (1UP) | 51.2% | 59.4% | 60.2% | 0.99× | 1.68 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia or draw in 2nd half | 76.5% | 76.9% | 72.2% | 1.07× | 1.30 |
| Valencia or Real Sociedad in 2nd half | 68.3% | 65.7% | 66.8% | 0.98× | 1.52 |
| Real Sociedad or draw in 2nd half | 55.2% | 58.8% | 60.9% | 0.97× | 1.70 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 62.9% | 61.7% | 62.4% | 0.99× | 1.62 |
| Neither half drawn | 37.1% | 38.3% | 37.6% | 1.02× | 2.61 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (DNB) | 64.4% | 62.7% | 62.0% | 1.01× | 1.60 |
| Real Sociedad (DNB) | 35.6% | 37.3% | 38.0% | 0.98× | 2.68 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to score first | 55.2% | 61.9% | 55.4% | 1.12× | 1.62 |
| Real Sociedad to score first | 39.0% | 32.8% | 39.8% | 0.82× | 3.05 |
| No goal scored | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.50× | 13.33 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 55.0% | 55.5% | 0.99× | 1.82 |
| Not both teams to score | 43.7% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 1.01× | 2.22 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both score & over 2.5 | 44.9% | 41.6% | 40.5% | 1.03× | 2.40 |
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 34.3% | 34.5% | 35.2% | 0.98× | 2.90 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 11.4% | 12.3% | 15.1% | 0.82× | 8.10 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 0.88× | 12.02 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 83.5% | 82.8% | 86.1% | 0.96× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 16.5% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 1.24× | 5.80 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 65.9% | 67.7% | 71.2% | 0.95× | 1.48 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 34.1% | 32.3% | 28.8% | 1.12× | 3.09 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 55.2% | 59.4% | 60.0% | 0.99× | 1.68 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 28.6% | 26.6% | 23.3% | 1.14× | 3.76 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 0.94× | 9.41 |
| Both score in both halves | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 1.23× | 14.52 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 83.8% | 82.8% | 83.2% | 1.00× | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 16.2% | 17.2% | 16.8% | 1.02× | 5.81 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A goal in each half | 54.0% | 53.2% | 54.8% | 0.97× | 1.88 |
| A half without a goal | 46.0% | 46.8% | 45.2% | 1.04× | 2.14 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 45.8% | 47.2% | 49.6% | 0.95× | 2.12 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.4% | 26.6% | 23.6% | 1.13× | 3.76 |
| 0-1 goals | 22.2% | 22.9% | 24.7% | 0.93× | 4.37 |
| 7+ goals | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 0.79× | 54.95 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 1 | 36.2% | 35.9% | 38.1% | 0.94× | 2.79 |
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 0 | 30.7% | 33.8% | 29.9% | 1.13× | 2.96 |
| Real Sociedad to score exactly 2 | 21.4% | 22.3% | 21.9% | 1.02× | 4.48 |
| Real Sociedad to score 3+ | 11.7% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 1.24× | 7.79 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to score exactly 1 | 31.4% | 32.6% | 38.4% | 0.85× | 3.07 |
| Valencia to score exactly 2 | 26.3% | 26.5% | 22.6% | 1.17× | 3.77 |
| Valencia to score 3+ | 23.6% | 23.3% | 19.6% | 1.19× | 4.29 |
| Valencia to score exactly 0 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 19.6% | 0.96× | 5.31 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 45.6% | 52.2% | 43.2% | 1.21× | 1.92 |
| Valencia leading at HT | 30.4% | 33.5% | 35.4% | 0.95× | 2.99 |
| Real Sociedad leading at HT | 24.0% | 20.2% | 21.6% | 0.93× | 4.96 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia -1: 2 | 51.2% | 52.2% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Valencia -1: 1 | 26.0% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
| Valencia -1: X | 22.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.25 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (0:1) | 51.2% | 51.4% | 53.4% | 0.96× | 1.95 |
| Valencia (0:1) | 26.0% | 27.0% | 20.7% | 1.31× | 3.70 |
| Draw (0:1) | 22.9% | 24.2% | 26.0% | 0.93× | 4.13 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (0:2) | 74.0% | 75.8% | 79.3% | 0.96× | 1.32 |
| Draw (0:2) | 14.9% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 1.03× | 9.11 |
| Valencia (0:2) | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 1.09× | 9.12 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (0:3) | 88.9% | 90.7% | 89.9% | 1.01× | 1.10 |
| Draw (0:3) | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 0.82× | 17.25 |
| Valencia (0:3) | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 0.75× | 42.18 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (0:4) | 96.1% | 98.1% | 96.8% | 1.01× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 2.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.50× | 82.60 |
| Valencia (0:4) | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.42× | 82.79 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (1:0) | 73.0% | 72.4% | 71.4% | 1.01× | 1.38 |
| Draw (1:0) | 16.2% | 17.0% | 17.8% | 0.96× | 5.87 |
| Real Sociedad (1:0) | 10.8% | 12.8% | 10.9% | 1.17× | 7.83 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia (2:0) | 89.2% | 88.4% | 89.1% | 0.99× | 1.13 |
| Draw (2:0) | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 0.89× | 15.62 |
| Real Sociedad (2:0) | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 0.59× | 43.43 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 55.8% | 56.2% | 51.2% | 1.10× | 1.78 |
| Halves equal | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.3% | 1.09× | 4.11 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 21.3% | 24.3% | 26.6% | 0.91× | 4.12 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to concede | 69.3% | 66.6% | 70.1% | 0.95× | 1.50 |
| Valencia clean sheet | 30.7% | 33.4% | 29.9% | 1.12× | 3.00 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia clean sheet in 1st half | 62.6% | 64.4% | 63.3% | 1.02× | 1.55 |
| Valencia to concede in 1st half | 37.4% | 35.6% | 36.7% | 0.97× | 2.81 |
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to concede in 2nd half | 51.0% | 53.0% | 52.1% | 1.02× | 1.89 |
| Valencia clean sheet in 2nd half | 49.0% | 47.0% | 47.9% | 0.98× | 2.13 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia over 2.5 corners | 81.9% | 81.0% | — | — | 1.24 |
| Valencia under 6.5 corners | 73.8% | 71.9% | — | — | 1.39 |
| Valencia over 3.5 corners | 67.8% | 66.7% | — | — | 1.50 |
| Valencia under 5.5 corners | 61.9% | 62.2% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Valencia over 4.5 corners | 52.5% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Valencia under 4.5 corners | 47.5% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
| Valencia over 5.5 corners | 38.1% | 37.8% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Valencia under 3.5 corners | 32.2% | 33.3% | — | — | 3.01 |
| Valencia over 6.5 corners | 26.2% | 28.1% | — | — | 3.56 |
| Valencia under 2.5 corners | 18.1% | 19.0% | — | — | 5.26 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia under 3.5 goals | 91.1% | 92.2% | 92.5% | 1.00× | 1.08 |
| Valencia over 0.5 goals | 81.2% | 82.2% | 80.4% | 1.02× | 1.22 |
| Valencia under 2.5 goals | 76.4% | 77.7% | 80.4% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Valencia under 1.5 goals | 50.2% | 53.2% | 57.9% | 0.92× | 1.88 |
| Valencia over 1.5 goals | 49.8% | 46.8% | 42.1% | 1.11× | 2.14 |
| Valencia over 2.5 goals | 23.6% | 22.3% | 19.6% | 1.14× | 4.48 |
| Valencia under 0.5 goals | 18.8% | 17.8% | 19.6% | 0.91× | 5.61 |
| Valencia over 3.5 goals | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 1.03× | 12.85 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia under 1.5 in 1st half | 88.9% | 90.0% | 86.0% | 1.05× | 1.11 |
| Valencia under 0.5 in 1st half | 56.8% | 57.9% | 52.0% | 1.11× | 1.73 |
| Valencia over 0.5 in 1st half | 43.2% | 42.1% | 48.0% | 0.88× | 2.37 |
| Valencia over 1.5 in 1st half | 11.1% | 10.0% | 14.0% | 0.71× | 10.00 |
Home highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia scores more in 2nd half | 48.7% | 48.1% | 39.9% | 1.21× | 2.08 |
| Valencia scores equally in both | 32.5% | 32.9% | 32.3% | 1.02× | 3.04 |
| Valencia scores more in 1st half | 18.8% | 14.2% | 27.9% | 0.51× | 7.03 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad (home no bet) | 52.8% | 51.5% | 53.4% | 0.96× | 1.94 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 47.2% | 48.5% | 46.6% | 1.04× | 2.06 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia even goals | 51.8% | 50.6% | 47.6% | 1.06× | 1.97 |
| Valencia odd goals | 48.2% | 49.4% | 52.4% | 0.94× | 2.03 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 35.5% | 37.6% | 32.1% | 1.17× | 2.66 |
| HT 1-0 | 20.1% | 24.0% | 22.6% | 1.07× | 4.16 |
| HT 0-1 | 16.7% | 18.7% | 15.9% | 1.18× | 5.34 |
| HT 1-1 | 9.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 0.70× | 14.07 |
| HT 2-0 | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 1.14× | 14.12 |
| HT 0-2 | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 0.66× | 42.72 |
| Any other HT score | 3.2% | 2.3% | 4.6% | 0.50× | 42.77 |
| HT 2-1 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 0.74× | 42.80 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.47× | 42.84 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.91× | 42.95 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia at HT / Valencia at FT | 24.6% | 21.6% | 26.5% | 0.82× | 4.63 |
| Draw at HT / Valencia at FT | 20.4% | 21.5% | 17.8% | 1.21× | 4.66 |
| Real Sociedad at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 14.6% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 0.96× | 7.87 |
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 14.5% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.91× | 7.88 |
| Draw at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 1.08× | 7.90 |
| Real Sociedad at HT / Draw at FT | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 1.02× | 16.42 |
| Valencia at HT / Draw at FT | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 0.66× | 29.08 |
| Real Sociedad at HT / Valencia at FT | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.28× | 29.10 |
| Valencia at HT / Real Sociedad at FT | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 0.88× | 29.18 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to score last | 55.2% | 56.4% | 55.2% | 1.02× | 1.77 |
| Real Sociedad to score last | 39.0% | 38.5% | 39.9% | 0.97× | 2.60 |
| No goal scored | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.50× | 13.33 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 94.2% | 92.6% | 95.0% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Valencia to lead by 1 at any time | 64.2% | 61.4% | 63.0% | 0.97× | 1.63 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 49.0% | 44.3% | 41.8% | 1.06× | 2.26 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 1 at any time | 45.4% | 44.2% | 47.3% | 0.93× | 2.27 |
| Valencia to lead by 2 at any time | 32.8% | 29.6% | 26.3% | 1.13× | 3.37 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 18.4% | 15.1% | 17.0% | 0.89× | 6.63 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 2 at any time | 16.4% | 15.0% | 15.9% | 0.95× | 6.65 |
| Valencia to lead by 3 at any time | 13.6% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 0.86× | 9.49 |
| Real Sociedad to lead by 3 at any time | 4.8% | 1.7% | 4.8% | 0.35× | 60.60 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia most corners | 46.1% | 46.8% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Real Sociedad most corners | 43.0% | 43.6% | — | — | 2.30 |
| Corners level | 10.9% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.61 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 87.3% | 87.4% | 89.2% | 0.98× | 1.14 |
| 1-4 goals | 78.2% | 78.6% | 81.1% | 0.97× | 1.27 |
| 2-6 goals | 75.2% | 78.6% | 73.1% | 1.08× | 1.27 |
| 2-5 goals | 70.8% | 72.4% | 69.5% | 1.04× | 1.38 |
| 1-3 goals | 62.2% | 63.4% | 69.3% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 61.7% | 63.4% | 61.4% | 1.03× | 1.58 |
| 3-6 goals | 51.7% | 53.1% | 47.7% | 1.11× | 1.88 |
| 3-5 goals | 47.4% | 48.6% | 44.0% | 1.10× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 45.8% | 48.6% | 49.6% | 0.98× | 2.06 |
| 1-2 goals | 39.9% | 39.2% | 45.3% | 0.87× | 2.55 |
| 3-4 goals | 38.3% | 39.2% | 36.0% | 1.09× | 2.55 |
| 4-6 goals | 29.4% | 30.3% | 23.6% | 1.28× | 3.30 |
| 4-5 goals | 25.0% | 30.3% | 20.0% | 1.52× | 3.30 |
| 5-6 goals | 13.4% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 1.26× | 6.74 |
| 7+ goals | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.10× | 39.24 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia never behind | 48.9% | 56.5% | 52.7% | 1.07× | 1.77 |
| Real Sociedad never behind | 30.1% | 35.8% | 37.0% | 0.97× | 2.79 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 49.8% | 50.9% | 53.8% | 0.95× | 1.96 |
| Even number of goals | 50.2% | 49.1% | 46.2% | 1.06× | 2.04 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 56.3% | 57.3% | 53.9% | 1.06× | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 43.7% | 42.7% | 46.1% | 0.93× | 2.34 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 51.3% | 52.0% | 49.8% | 1.05× | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 48.7% | 48.0% | 50.2% | 0.95× | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94.2% | 92.2% | 95.0% | 0.97× | 1.08 |
| Under 5.5 goals | 93.0% | 92.2% | 94.0% | 0.98× | 1.08 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83.9% | 82.3% | 86.0% | 0.96× | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 77.3% | 75.3% | 1.03× | 1.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68.0% | 66.3% | 74.2% | 0.89× | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 52.5% | 49.9% | 1.05× | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 47.5% | 50.1% | 0.95× | 2.11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 33.7% | 25.8% | 1.30× | 2.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 22.7% | 24.7% | 0.92× | 4.41 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16.1% | 17.7% | 14.0% | 1.26× | 5.66 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 1.30× | 12.90 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.55× | 12.90 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 97.2% | 97.2% | 97.6% | 1.00× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 92.3% | 92.4% | 93.5% | 0.99× | 1.08 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 80.9% | 81.1% | 84.1% | 0.96× | 1.23 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 71.0% | 72.4% | 66.9% | 1.08× | 1.38 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 58.8% | 55.8% | 66.0% | 0.85× | 1.79 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 41.2% | 44.2% | 34.0% | 1.30× | 2.26 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 29.0% | 27.6% | 33.1% | 0.83× | 3.62 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 19.1% | 18.9% | 15.9% | 1.19× | 5.29 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 1.17× | 13.14 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.16× | 35.79 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 91.3% | 92.6% | 89.8% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 72.3% | 71.2% | 70.2% | 1.01× | 1.40 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 64.5% | 63.8% | 67.9% | 0.94× | 1.57 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 35.5% | 36.2% | 32.1% | 1.13× | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 27.7% | 28.8% | 29.8% | 0.97× | 3.47 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 0.72× | 13.50 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 83.8% | 82.8% | 81.8% | 1.01× | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 72.5% | 77.6% | 79.5% | 0.98× | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 54.3% | 53.2% | 46.5% | 1.14× | 1.88 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 45.7% | 46.8% | 53.5% | 0.88× | 2.14 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 27.5% | 22.4% | 20.5% | 1.09× | 4.47 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 16.2% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 0.95× | 5.81 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad not to score in both halves | 80.9% | 84.1% | 81.2% | 1.04× | 1.19 |
| Valencia not to score in both halves | 71.1% | 74.1% | 73.8% | 1.00× | 1.35 |
| Valencia to score in both halves | 28.9% | 25.9% | 26.2% | 0.99× | 3.86 |
| Real Sociedad to score in both halves | 19.1% | 15.9% | 18.8% | 0.85× | 6.29 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 58.6% | 55.5% | 1.06× | 1.71 |
| Only Valencia scores | 24.9% | 22.3% | 25.1% | 0.89× | 4.49 |
| Only Real Sociedad scores | 13.0% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 0.75× | 9.07 |
| Neither team scores | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.43× | 14.04 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 23.5% | 22.6% | 25.5% | 0.88× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 22.3% | 22.6% | 24.2% | 0.93× | 4.43 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 16.4% | 17.4% | 19.8% | 0.88× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 15.9% | 17.4% | 11.9% | 1.46× | 5.73 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 9.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 0.93× | 13.13 |
| 6 or more goals | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 1.28× | 13.13 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 1.53× | 13.14 |
Total goals 1st half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 goal in 1st half | 36.8% | 36.9% | 38.3% | 0.96× | 2.71 |
| No goals in 1st half | 35.5% | 36.8% | 32.1% | 1.15× | 2.72 |
| 2 goals in 1st half | 19.0% | 15.4% | 19.6% | 0.79× | 6.48 |
| 3+ goals in 1st half | 8.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 0.72× | 13.50 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 54.3% | 51.6% | 46.5% | 1.11× | 1.94 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 29.5% | 29.8% | 35.5% | 0.84× | 3.36 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 16.2% | 17.1% | 18.2% | 0.94× | 5.84 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad not to win both halves | 94.4% | 94.1% | 94.8% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Valencia not to win both halves | 86.4% | 88.0% | 88.2% | 1.00× | 1.14 |
| Valencia to win both halves | 13.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 1.02× | 8.33 |
| Real Sociedad to win both halves | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 1.13× | 16.84 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia to win either half | 61.6% | 64.9% | 62.7% | 1.04× | 1.54 |
| Real Sociedad to win neither half | 58.2% | 59.5% | 55.9% | 1.07× | 1.68 |
| Real Sociedad to win either half | 41.8% | 40.5% | 44.1% | 0.92× | 2.47 |
| Valencia to win neither half | 38.4% | 35.1% | 37.3% | 0.94× | 2.85 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad not to win to nil | 87.0% | 88.1% | 85.3% | 1.03× | 1.14 |
| Valencia not to win to nil | 75.1% | 78.1% | 74.9% | 1.04× | 1.28 |
| Valencia to win to nil | 24.9% | 21.9% | 25.1% | 0.87× | 4.57 |
| Real Sociedad to win to nil | 13.0% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 0.81× | 8.42 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.2% | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.97× | 4.15 |
| Valencia by 1 | 22.9% | 24.1% | 26.0% | 0.93× | 4.15 |
| Real Sociedad by 1 | 16.2% | 17.0% | 17.8% | 0.96× | 5.89 |
| Valencia by 2 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 1.10× | 8.49 |
| Valencia by 3+ | 11.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 1.17× | 8.50 |
| Real Sociedad by 2 | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 1.00× | 13.87 |
| Real Sociedad by 3+ | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.70× | 36.70 |
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 1.53 xGReal Sociedad 2.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Real Sociedad attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Real Sociedad |
Luken Beitia | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 5' |
Real Sociedad |
Luken Beitia | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 13' |
Real Sociedad |
Luken Beitia | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 14' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 18' |
 Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Valencia |
Justin de Haas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luken Beitia |
| 25' |
Real Sociedad |
Luka Sucic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Job Ochieng |
| 27' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 28' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jon Aramburu |
| 30' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 36' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 41' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Real Sociedad |
Jon Martín | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Sergio Gómez |
| 45' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | José Gayá |
| 49' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Otorbi |
| 50' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 51' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| 51' |
Valencia |
Aaron Mayol | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pepelu |
| 55' |
Real Sociedad |
Mikel Oyarzabal | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luka Sucic |
| 56' |
Valencia |
Aaron Mayol | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Duro |
| 58' |
Real Sociedad |
Job Ochieng | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Soler |
| 61' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | David Otorbi |
| 62' |
Valencia |
David Otorbi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Justin de Haas |
| 66' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Mayol |
| 71' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonçalo Guedes |
| 74' |
Real Sociedad |
Carlos Soler | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Justin de Haas |
| 78' |
Valencia |
Harvey Elliott | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | David Otorbi |
| 80' |
Real Sociedad |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 81' |
Valencia |
David Otorbi | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 81' |
Valencia |
Javier Guerra | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Real Sociedad |
Luken Beitia | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 90' |
Real Sociedad |
Ander Barrenetxea | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Carlos Soler |
| 93' |
Valencia |
Aimar Blázquez | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 96' |
Valencia |
Pablo Maffeo | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Elliott |
Players
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Guerra FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Aaron Mayol MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.30 |
| Pepelu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Pablo Maffeo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| Justin de Haas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.82 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 83 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| José Gayá DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Guido Rodríguez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Filip Ugrinic MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| David Otorbi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Aimar Blázquez Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Rioja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
Real Sociedad
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Soler MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Luken Beitia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Gonçalo Guedes ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.38 |
| Jon Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Aramburu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Remiro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Luka Sucic FW | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| Jon Gorrotxategi MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sergio Gómez DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.81 |
| Job Ochieng MR | 62 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Ander Barrenetxea Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Orri Óskarsson Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yangel Herrera Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aihen Muñoz Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arsen Zakharyan Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |