Valencia v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 4
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.25 – +0.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Valencia win
42.1%
Draw
25.4%
Sevilla win
32.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.41–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–0.97 | 1-0 13% | 41% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Valencia 1.25 xGSevilla 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Valencia attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Sevilla |
Peque | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Batista Mendy |
| 4' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 8' |
 Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 17' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 44' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 48' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | André Almeida |
| 55' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oso |
| 57' |
Valencia |
César Tárrega | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 70' |
Valencia |
Thierry Correia | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.10 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.14 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Copete |
| 89' |
Valencia |
Lucas Beltrán | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Diego López |
| 91' |
Valencia |
Largie Ramazani | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Valencia |
Hugo Duro | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Filip Ugrinic |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| José Ángel Carmona DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sow ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| César Azpilicueta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Batista Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Lucien Agoume MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Oso DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Peque MR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joan Jordán Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Duro FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Pepelu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Thierry Correia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| César Tárrega DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| José Gayá DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Rioja AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Javier Guerra DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| André Almeida AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Beltrán Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Filip Ugrinic Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| Diego López Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.65 |
| Largie Ramazani Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jesús Vázquez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |