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Vancouver Whitecaps v St. Louis City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Vancouver Whitecaps win
67.7%
model 69.9%
Draw
19.1%
model 18.0%
St. Louis City win
13.2%
model 12.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.7%
  2. 2-1 9.6%
  3. 1-0 8.7%
  4. 3-0 8.5%
  5. 1-1 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.563.4% Under 2.536.6%
BTTS yes54.0% BTTS no46.0%
Vancouver Whitecaps 1+90.7% Vancouver Whitecaps 2+68.6%
St. Louis City 1+59.1% St. Louis City 2+22.6%

Expected goals 2.38 – 0.90. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
Vancouver Whitecaps (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 45%
69.2% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 1062 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+1.5)
Corner handicap
84.2% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 6586 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1541.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Vancouver Whitecaps have an estimated 67.7% win probability, against 19.1% for the draw and 13.2% for St. Louis City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.38 for Vancouver Whitecaps and 0.90 for St. Louis City.

Why Vancouver Whitecaps

Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger rating, 1667 Elo against 1541. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 19.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why St. Louis City can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vancouver Whitecaps, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for St. Louis City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vancouver Whitecaps: 61% possession, 18.0 shots a match, 6.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St. Louis City: 53% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Vancouver Whitecaps are the model's most likely outcome at 67.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.7%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.26–0.89 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.35–0.89 2-0 11% 63% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win 68.0% 68.1% 45.4% 1.50× 1.47
Draw 19.1% 19.1% 24.9% 0.77× 5.23
St. Louis City to win 12.9% 10.6% 29.9% 0.35× 9.48
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps & not both score 36.6% 37.0% 21.1% 1.75× 2.71
Vancouver Whitecaps & both teams score 31.4% 32.9% 24.4% 1.35× 3.04
Draw & both teams score 14.4% 12.1% 19.1% 0.63× 8.24
St. Louis City & both teams score 7.1% 7.3% 17.8% 0.41× 13.71
St. Louis City & not both score 5.8% 7.3% 12.3% 0.59× 13.74
Draw & not both score 4.7% 3.7% 5.8% 0.63× 27.22
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 1.5 58.6% 56.7% 37.1% 1.53× 1.76
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 2.5 47.6% 46.8% 30.9% 1.51× 2.14
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 3.5 38.4% 37.7% 28.3% 1.33× 2.66
Vancouver Whitecaps & over 3.5 29.5% 25.6% 17.2% 1.49× 3.91
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 2.5 20.4% 21.5% 14.5% 1.48× 4.66
Draw & over 1.5 14.4% 12.7% 19.1% 0.66× 7.87
Draw & under 2.5 13.7% 12.7% 16.0% 0.79× 7.87
Draw & under 3.5 13.7% 12.7% 16.0% 0.79× 7.87
Vancouver Whitecaps & under 1.5 9.4% 7.5% 8.4% 0.90× 13.33
St. Louis City & over 1.5 9.5% 7.5% 23.5% 0.32× 13.33
St. Louis City & under 3.5 9.5% 7.5% 18.8% 0.40× 13.33
St. Louis City & over 2.5 7.8% 7.5% 20.3% 0.37× 13.34
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.5% 8.9% 0.84× 13.35
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.5% 8.9% 0.84× 13.35
St. Louis City & under 2.5 5.1% 7.5% 9.7% 0.77× 13.35
Draw & under 1.5 4.7% 4.5% 5.8% 0.77× 22.29
St. Louis City & under 1.5 3.5% 4.5% 6.5% 0.69× 22.35
St. Louis City & over 3.5 3.5% 4.5% 11.2% 0.40× 22.35
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (1UP) 78.7% 80.2% 1.25
St. Louis City (1UP) 30.8% 32.4% 3.09
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (2UP) 68.0% 68.7% 1.46
St. Louis City (2UP) 12.9% 14.1% 7.09
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win 2nd half 55.1% 62.0% 1.61
2nd half drawn 29.7% 27.6% 3.62
St. Louis City to win 2nd half 15.2% 19.9% 5.02
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City under 1.5 in 2nd half 90.0% 91.6% 1.09
St. Louis City under 0.5 in 2nd half 58.8% 56.4% 1.77
St. Louis City over 0.5 in 2nd half 41.2% 43.6% 2.30
St. Louis City over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.0% 8.4% 11.90
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.3% 71.1% 1.41
Vancouver Whitecaps under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.2% 65.3% 1.53
Vancouver Whitecaps over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.8% 34.7% 2.88
Vancouver Whitecaps under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.7% 28.9% 3.46
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (+0.5) 87.1% 89.0% 70.1% 1.27× 1.12
St. Louis City (+2.5) 75.4% 78.7% 89.5% 0.88× 1.27
Vancouver Whitecaps (-0.5) 68.0% 69.2% 45.4% 1.52× 1.45
St. Louis City (+1.5) 55.0% 52.0% 76.7% 0.68× 1.93
Vancouver Whitecaps (-1.5) 45.0% 48.0% 23.3% 2.07× 2.08
St. Louis City (+0.5) 32.0% 30.8% 54.6% 0.56× 3.24
Vancouver Whitecaps (-2.5) 24.6% 21.3% 10.5% 2.02× 4.69
St. Louis City (-0.5) 12.9% 11.0% 29.9% 0.37× 9.11
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City to concede 89.5% 89.9% 82.0% 1.10× 1.11
St. Louis City clean sheet 10.5% 10.1% 18.0% 0.56× 9.92
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City to concede in 1st half 62.1% 60.5% 1.65
St. Louis City clean sheet in 1st half 37.9% 39.5% 2.54
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City to concede in 2nd half 72.3% 69.5% 1.44
St. Louis City clean sheet in 2nd half 27.7% 30.5% 3.28
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City under 6.5 corners 90.6% 89.2% 1.12
St. Louis City under 5.5 corners 83.3% 81.0% 1.24
St. Louis City under 4.5 corners 72.0% 72.3% 1.38
St. Louis City over 2.5 corners 62.3% 61.4% 1.63
St. Louis City under 3.5 corners 56.4% 56.9% 1.76
St. Louis City over 3.5 corners 43.6% 43.1% 2.32
St. Louis City under 2.5 corners 37.7% 38.6% 2.59
St. Louis City over 4.5 corners 28.0% 27.7% 3.61
St. Louis City over 5.5 corners 16.7% 19.0% 5.25
St. Louis City over 6.5 corners 9.4% 10.8% 9.26
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City under 3.5 goals 98.7% 97.3% 93.9% 1.04× 1.03
St. Louis City under 2.5 goals 94.0% 92.8% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
St. Louis City under 1.5 goals 77.8% 75.4% 61.3% 1.23× 1.33
St. Louis City over 0.5 goals 58.7% 57.9% 73.2% 0.79× 1.73
St. Louis City under 0.5 goals 41.3% 42.1% 26.8% 1.57× 2.37
St. Louis City over 1.5 goals 22.2% 24.6% 38.7% 0.64× 4.07
St. Louis City over 2.5 goals 6.0% 7.2% 16.7% 0.43× 13.90
St. Louis City over 3.5 goals 1.3% 2.7% 6.1% 0.45× 36.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City under 1.5 in 1st half 95.0% 96.0% 1.04
St. Louis City under 0.5 in 1st half 70.2% 68.9% 1.45
St. Louis City over 0.5 in 1st half 29.8% 31.1% 3.21
St. Louis City over 1.5 in 1st half 5.0% 4.0% 24.95
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City scores equally in both 49.4% 46.9% 2.13
St. Louis City scores more in 2nd half 31.5% 32.3% 3.09
St. Louis City scores more in 1st half 19.1% 18.4% 5.44
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (away no bet) 78.1% 78.7% 64.6% 1.22× 1.27
Draw (away no bet) 21.9% 21.3% 35.4% 0.60× 4.69
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City even goals 58.5% 58.4% 53.6% 1.09× 1.71
St. Louis City odd goals 41.5% 41.6% 46.4% 0.90× 2.41
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 79.3% 79.9% 1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals 20.7% 20.1% 4.97
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.9% 71.3% 1.40
Both halves under 1.5 goals 28.1% 28.7% 3.49
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 66.9% 64.9% 1.54
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 2+ in a row 58.9% 59.4% 1.68
Either team to score 3+ in a row 32.4% 33.9% 2.95
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 3+ in a row 30.1% 33.8% 2.96
St. Louis City to score 2+ in a row 14.0% 12.2% 8.17
St. Louis City to score 3+ in a row 2.6% 3.4% 29.74
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+3.5) 94.6% 88.7% 1.13
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+2.5) 90.7% 88.6% 1.13
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (+1.5) 85.1% 84.2% 1.19
St. Louis City corners (+3.5) 64.4% 61.7% 1.62
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-1.5) 57.1% 56.8% 1.76
St. Louis City corners (+2.5) 53.9% 52.3% 1.91
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-2.5) 46.1% 47.7% 2.10
St. Louis City corners (+1.5) 42.9% 43.2% 2.31
Vancouver Whitecaps corners (-3.5) 35.6% 38.3% 2.61
St. Louis City corners (-1.5) 14.9% 15.8% 6.31
St. Louis City corners (-2.5) 9.3% 11.4% 8.81
St. Louis City corners (-3.5) 5.4% 11.3% 8.83
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.3% 40.6% 2.46
9-11 corners 28.3% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 25.4% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.4% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 74.6% 72.5% 1.38
Under 10.5 corners 66.4% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 64.5% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 56.8% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.7% 52.2% 1.91
Under 8.5 corners 46.3% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 43.2% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.5% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 33.6% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 25.4% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.6% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 11.0% 11.6% 6.3% 1.84× 8.62
2-1 9.7% 7.3% 9.9% 0.74× 13.75
1-0 9.4% 7.3% 8.4% 0.87× 13.76
1-1 9.0% 7.3% 10.3% 0.71× 13.76
3-0 8.3% 7.3% 4.1% 1.76× 13.76
Any other score 8.0% 7.3% 4.7% 1.55× 13.76
3-1 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 1.48× 13.76
0-0 4.7% 1.8% 5.8% 0.31× 55.39
1-2 3.8% 1.8% 7.4% 0.24× 55.41
2-2 4.3% 1.8% 6.1% 0.30× 55.40
4-0 4.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.43× 55.39
4-1 4.1% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 55.41
0-1 3.5% 1.8% 6.5% 0.28× 55.42
3-2 3.2% 1.8% 3.6% 0.51× 55.43
0-2 1.7% 1.8% 3.3% 0.54× 55.47
2-3 1.3% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 55.48
4-2 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% 1.12× 55.46
0-3 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 0.98× 55.50
0-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 2.25× 55.51
1-3 1.1% 1.8% 3.4% 0.52× 55.48
1-4 0.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.31× 55.50
2-4 0.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.05× 55.50
3-3 1.0% 1.8% 2.6% 0.68× 55.48
3-4 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 2.62× 55.50
4-3 0.5% 1.8% 0.8% 2.25× 55.49
4-4 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 3.93× 55.51
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd half DNB) 78.4% 73.3% 1.36
St. Louis City (2nd half DNB) 21.6% 26.7% 3.75
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps leading at HT (DNB) 79.2% 80.2% 1.25
St. Louis City leading at HT (DNB) 20.8% 19.8% 5.04
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw (1X) 87.1% 89.4% 70.1% 1.28× 1.12
Vancouver Whitecaps or St. Louis City (12) 80.9% 80.9% 75.1% 1.08× 1.24
St. Louis City or draw (X2) 32.0% 31.9% 54.6% 0.58× 3.13
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw at HT 86.8% 88.3% 1.13
Vancouver Whitecaps or St. Louis City at HT 63.3% 63.3% 1.58
St. Louis City or draw at HT 49.9% 47.9% 2.09
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw (1UP) 87.1% 92.6% 1.08
St. Louis City or draw (1UP) 32.0% 37.2% 2.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw in 2nd half 84.8% 80.1% 1.25
Vancouver Whitecaps or St. Louis City in 2nd half 70.3% 72.4% 1.38
St. Louis City or draw in 2nd half 44.9% 38.0% 2.63
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 55.0% 57.7% 1.73
Neither half drawn 45.0% 42.3% 2.36
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (DNB) 84.0% 81.4% 60.3% 1.35× 1.23
St. Louis City (DNB) 16.0% 18.6% 39.7% 0.47× 5.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score first 68.5% 71.4% 1.40
St. Louis City to score first 26.8% 24.7% 4.05
No goal scored 4.7% 4.1% 24.50
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.9% 53.1% 61.1% 0.87× 1.88
Not both teams to score 47.1% 46.9% 38.9% 1.20× 2.13
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.9% 42.4% 50.9% 0.83× 2.36
Not both score & under 2.5 30.3% 34.2% 29.9% 1.14× 2.93
Not both score & over 2.5 16.8% 17.6% 9.2% 1.92× 5.68
Both score & under 2.5 9.0% 8.7% 10.3% 0.84× 11.53
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.4% 85.4% 79.5% 1.07× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.6% 14.6% 20.5% 0.71× 6.84
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.1% 70.2% 1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.9% 29.8% 3.36
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.0% 57.7% 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 24.4% 24.4% 4.09
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 11.6% 8.64
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.4% 15.71
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.4% 83.2% 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.6% 16.8% 5.94
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 61.6% 63.0% 1.59
A half without a goal 38.4% 37.0% 2.70
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.1% 43.2% 42.5% 1.02× 2.31
4-6 goals 34.3% 32.0% 33.1% 0.97× 3.13
0-1 goals 17.5% 20.6% 20.5% 1.01× 4.85
7+ goals 4.1% 2.0% 4.1% 0.47× 51.13
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City to score exactly 0 41.3% 41.2% 26.8% 1.54× 2.43
St. Louis City to score exactly 1 36.5% 34.6% 34.6% 1.00× 2.89
St. Louis City to score exactly 2 16.2% 18.4% 22.1% 0.83× 5.42
St. Louis City to score 3+ 6.0% 7.4% 16.7% 0.44× 13.50
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score 3+ 39.2% 36.2% 25.2% 1.44× 2.76
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 2 26.7% 27.1% 26.0% 1.04× 3.70
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 1 23.6% 23.0% 31.0% 0.74× 4.35
Vancouver Whitecaps to score exactly 0 10.5% 13.4% 18.0% 0.75× 7.46
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps leading at HT 50.1% 52.1% 1.92
Draw at HT 36.7% 36.7% 2.72
St. Louis City leading at HT 13.2% 11.7% 8.55
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: 1 45.0% 47.0% 2.13
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: 2 32.0% 32.1% 3.12
Vancouver Whitecaps -1: X 23.0% 24.0% 4.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:1) 45.0% 47.5% 23.3% 2.04× 2.11
St. Louis City (0:1) 32.0% 34.4% 54.6% 0.63× 2.91
Draw (0:1) 23.0% 24.5% 22.2% 1.10× 4.08
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City (0:2) 55.0% 54.8% 76.7% 0.71× 1.83
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:2) 24.6% 21.7% 10.5% 2.06× 4.61
Draw (0:2) 20.4% 21.3% 12.8% 1.66× 4.70
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City (0:3) 75.4% 75.8% 89.5% 0.85× 1.32
Draw (0:3) 13.3% 12.3% 6.6% 1.84× 8.16
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:3) 11.2% 12.1% 4.0% 3.02× 8.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City (0:4) 88.8% 86.4% 96.0% 0.90× 1.16
Draw (0:4) 6.9% 7.0% 2.1% 3.42× 14.19
Vancouver Whitecaps (0:4) 4.4% 1.3% 2.1% 0.61× 79.90
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (1:0) 87.1% 88.0% 70.1% 1.26× 1.14
Draw (1:0) 8.8% 8.6% 16.8% 0.51× 11.60
St. Louis City (1:0) 4.1% 3.0% 13.2% 0.23× 33.20
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps (2:0) 95.9% 97.3% 86.8% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.1% 2.7% 8.7% 0.31× 36.85
St. Louis City (2:0) 1.0% 2.7% 4.6% 0.58× 37.37
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.7% 48.7% 2.05
1st half highest scoring 27.8% 26.1% 3.83
Halves equal 23.5% 23.2% 4.32
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to concede 58.7% 59.8% 73.2% 0.82× 1.67
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet 41.3% 40.2% 26.8% 1.50× 2.49
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet in 1st half 70.2% 67.9% 1.47
Vancouver Whitecaps to concede in 1st half 29.8% 32.1% 3.12
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet in 2nd half 58.8% 56.1% 1.78
Vancouver Whitecaps to concede in 2nd half 41.2% 43.9% 2.28
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps over 2.5 corners 86.3% 85.2% 1.17
Vancouver Whitecaps over 3.5 corners 74.9% 71.5% 1.40
Vancouver Whitecaps under 6.5 corners 64.0% 62.0% 1.61
Vancouver Whitecaps over 4.5 corners 61.6% 62.0% 1.61
Vancouver Whitecaps under 5.5 corners 51.8% 53.0% 1.89
Vancouver Whitecaps over 5.5 corners 48.2% 47.0% 2.13
Vancouver Whitecaps under 4.5 corners 38.4% 38.0% 2.63
Vancouver Whitecaps over 6.5 corners 36.0% 38.0% 2.63
Vancouver Whitecaps under 3.5 corners 25.1% 28.5% 3.51
Vancouver Whitecaps under 2.5 corners 13.7% 14.8% 6.75
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps over 0.5 goals 89.5% 87.8% 82.0% 1.07× 1.14
Vancouver Whitecaps under 3.5 goals 80.9% 82.5% 90.6% 0.91× 1.21
Vancouver Whitecaps over 1.5 goals 65.9% 68.8% 51.1% 1.35× 1.45
Vancouver Whitecaps under 2.5 goals 60.8% 62.7% 74.8% 0.84× 1.59
Vancouver Whitecaps over 2.5 goals 39.2% 37.3% 25.2% 1.48× 2.68
Vancouver Whitecaps under 1.5 goals 34.1% 31.2% 48.9% 0.64× 3.21
Vancouver Whitecaps over 3.5 goals 19.1% 17.5% 9.4% 1.87× 5.71
Vancouver Whitecaps under 0.5 goals 10.5% 12.2% 18.0% 0.68× 8.22
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps under 1.5 in 1st half 74.7% 72.7% 1.38
Vancouver Whitecaps over 0.5 in 1st half 62.1% 60.4% 1.66
Vancouver Whitecaps under 0.5 in 1st half 37.9% 39.6% 2.52
Vancouver Whitecaps over 1.5 in 1st half 25.3% 27.3% 3.66
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps scores more in 2nd half 43.7% 40.4% 2.47
Vancouver Whitecaps scores equally in both 28.2% 27.9% 3.59
Vancouver Whitecaps scores more in 1st half 28.1% 27.9% 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.7% 54.6% 45.4% 1.20× 1.83
St. Louis City (home no bet) 40.3% 45.4% 54.6% 0.83× 2.20
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps even goals 50.6% 50.2% 51.0% 0.99× 1.99
Vancouver Whitecaps odd goals 49.4% 49.8% 49.0% 1.02× 2.01
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.7% 28.1% 3.56
HT 1-0 25.8% 28.0% 3.57
HT 2-0 12.5% 11.2% 8.94
HT 0-1 9.4% 7.7% 12.97
HT 1-1 9.2% 7.7% 12.97
Any other HT score 8.0% 7.7% 12.99
HT 2-1 4.4% 2.5% 39.75
HT 0-2 1.7% 2.5% 39.91
HT 1-2 1.6% 2.5% 39.91
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.5% 39.96
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 44.9% 42.7% 2.34
Draw at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 20.0% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 11.3% 11.9% 8.39
St. Louis City at HT / St. Louis City at FT 6.4% 6.6% 15.24
Draw at HT / St. Louis City at FT 5.4% 6.6% 15.26
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.4% 29.33
St. Louis City at HT / Draw at FT 3.6% 3.4% 29.35
St. Louis City at HT / Vancouver Whitecaps at FT 3.1% 3.4% 29.37
Vancouver Whitecaps at HT / St. Louis City at FT 1.1% 3.4% 29.46
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to score last 68.5% 68.4% 1.46
St. Louis City to score last 26.8% 31.6% 3.17
No goal scored 4.7% 4.1% 24.50
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.3% 95.9% 1.04
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 1 at any time 78.7% 78.9% 1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 59.1% 59.6% 1.68
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 2 at any time 51.5% 51.0% 1.96
St. Louis City to lead by 1 at any time 30.8% 31.8% 3.14
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 29.5% 26.2% 3.82
Vancouver Whitecaps to lead by 3 at any time 27.8% 26.2% 3.82
St. Louis City to lead by 2 at any time 7.9% 7.1% 14.18
St. Louis City to lead by 3 at any time 1.7% 2.6% 38.64
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps most corners 67.8% 64.5% 1.55
St. Louis City most corners 22.6% 27.1% 3.69
Corners level 9.5% 8.4% 11.88
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.5% 87.9% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.4% 78.9% 75.5% 1.05× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.4% 73.7% 73.1% 1.01× 1.36
2-5 goals 72.6% 73.6% 68.5% 1.07× 1.36
2-4 goals 61.6% 62.2% 58.4% 1.06× 1.61
1-3 goals 56.9% 58.9% 57.2% 1.03× 1.70
3-6 goals 56.7% 58.9% 55.9% 1.05× 1.70
3-5 goals 50.9% 52.3% 48.9% 1.07× 1.91
2-3 goals 44.1% 43.6% 42.5% 1.03× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.9% 38.9% 38.8% 1.00× 2.57
1-2 goals 34.6% 34.1% 34.4% 0.99× 2.94
4-6 goals 34.3% 34.1% 33.1% 1.03× 2.94
4-5 goals 28.6% 30.6% 26.1% 1.17× 3.27
5-6 goals 16.8% 18.1% 17.2% 1.05× 5.53
7+ goals 4.1% 2.0% 4.1% 0.49× 49.19
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps never behind 64.5% 69.7% 1.44
St. Louis City never behind 16.6% 20.1% 4.98
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.2% 50.2% 50.2% 1.00× 1.99
Even number of goals 50.8% 49.8% 49.8% 1.00× 2.01
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.7% 51.9% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 46.3% 48.1% 2.08
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.6% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 48.3% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.3% 95.6% 94.2% 1.02× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 90.2% 93.0% 88.9% 1.05× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 82.5% 81.0% 79.5% 1.02× 1.23
Under 4.5 goals 79.2% 78.1% 78.8% 0.99× 1.28
Under 3.5 goals 61.6% 61.7% 62.9% 0.98× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 60.7% 61.6% 59.9% 1.03× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 39.3% 38.4% 40.1% 0.96× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 38.4% 38.3% 37.1% 1.03× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 20.8% 21.9% 21.2% 1.03× 4.58
Under 1.5 goals 17.5% 19.0% 20.5% 0.93× 5.27
Over 5.5 goals 9.8% 7.0% 11.1% 0.63× 14.20
Under 0.5 goals 4.7% 4.4% 5.8% 0.75× 22.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 95.7% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.0% 88.3% 87.6% 1.01× 1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 77.6% 76.5% 74.5% 1.03× 1.31
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 74.7% 72.3% 74.8% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 50.6% 52.8% 51.9% 1.02× 1.90
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 49.4% 47.2% 48.1% 0.98× 2.12
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 25.3% 27.7% 25.2% 1.10× 3.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 22.4% 23.5% 25.5% 0.92× 4.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 11.0% 11.7% 12.4% 0.95× 8.52
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.3% 2.8% 4.4% 0.63× 36.09
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 85.2% 88.0% 1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.3% 72.5% 1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.8% 63.0% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.2% 37.0% 2.70
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.7% 27.5% 3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half 14.8% 12.0% 8.33
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.6% 82.0% 1.22
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.6% 76.2% 1.31
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.7% 51.7% 1.94
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.3% 48.3% 2.07
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.4% 23.8% 4.20
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.4% 18.0% 5.57
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City not to score in both halves 87.7% 84.6% 1.18
Vancouver Whitecaps not to score in both halves 55.1% 59.4% 1.68
Vancouver Whitecaps to score in both halves 44.9% 40.6% 2.46
St. Louis City to score in both halves 12.3% 15.4% 6.47
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.9% 55.0% 61.1% 0.90× 1.82
Only Vancouver Whitecaps scores 36.6% 39.7% 21.1% 1.88× 2.52
Only St. Louis City scores 5.8% 6.6% 12.3% 0.54× 15.17
Neither team scores 4.7% 3.9% 5.8% 0.67× 25.68
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 21.6% 22.9% 0.94× 4.63
Exactly 2 goals 21.7% 21.6% 19.7% 1.10× 4.63
Exactly 4 goals 17.5% 18.6% 16.0% 1.16× 5.39
Exactly 1 goals 12.8% 12.3% 14.8% 0.84× 8.10
Exactly 5 goals 11.0% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.12
6 or more goals 9.8% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.10
Exactly 0 goals 4.7% 4.4% 5.8% 0.75× 22.95
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.1% 37.3% 2.68
No goals in 1st half 26.7% 27.5% 3.64
2 goals in 1st half 23.4% 21.6% 4.62
3+ goals in 1st half 14.8% 12.0% 8.35
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.3% 47.7% 2.10
1 goal in 2nd half 29.3% 28.5% 3.51
No goals in 2nd half 16.4% 18.3% 5.47
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City not to win both halves 98.0% 96.6% 1.04
Vancouver Whitecaps not to win both halves 72.3% 73.7% 1.36
Vancouver Whitecaps to win both halves 27.7% 26.3% 3.80
St. Louis City to win both halves 2.0% 3.4% 29.71
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps to win either half 77.5% 82.0% 1.22
St. Louis City to win neither half 73.7% 72.4% 1.38
St. Louis City to win either half 26.3% 27.6% 3.62
Vancouver Whitecaps to win neither half 22.5% 18.0% 5.55
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
St. Louis City not to win to nil 94.2% 92.6% 87.7% 1.06× 1.08
Vancouver Whitecaps not to win to nil 63.4% 61.7% 78.9% 0.78× 1.62
Vancouver Whitecaps to win to nil 36.6% 38.3% 21.1% 1.82× 2.61
St. Louis City to win to nil 5.8% 7.4% 12.3% 0.60× 13.59
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vancouver Whitecaps by 3+ 24.6% 23.9% 10.5% 2.27× 4.18
Vancouver Whitecaps by 1 23.0% 23.9% 22.2% 1.07× 4.19
Vancouver Whitecaps by 2 20.4% 23.9% 12.8% 1.86× 4.19
Draw 19.1% 17.1% 24.9% 0.69× 5.86
St. Louis City by 1 8.8% 7.0% 16.8% 0.42× 14.19
St. Louis City by 2 3.1% 2.8% 8.7% 0.33× 35.27
St. Louis City by 3+ 1.0% 2.8% 4.6% 0.61× 35.58
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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