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Vanspor v Ankara Keçiörengücü — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · TUR-1. Lig · 2627

TUR-1. Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Vanspor win
23.9%
model 24.4%
Draw
27.5%
model 27.6%
Ankara Keçiörengücü win
48.6%
model 48.0%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,536 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.2%
  2. 1-2 9.5%
  3. 0-1 8.7%
  4. 0-2 8.5%
  5. 0-0 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.552.4% Under 2.547.6%
BTTS yes56.1% BTTS no43.9%
Vanspor 1+67.5% Vanspor 2+31.0%
Ankara Keçiörengücü 1+80.8% Ankara Keçiörengücü 2+49.0%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.65. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
20/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
Ankara Keçiörengücü (DNB)
Draw no bet · usually 41%
67.2% fair odds 1.49
strong signal · 3254 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both teams to score 2+
GG/NG 2+ · usually 90%
83.0% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 6846 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
  • Away from home Ankara Keçiörengücü average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 20/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Vanspor have only 0 matches on record.
  • Ankara Keçiörengücü have only 1 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Ankara Keçiörengücü have an estimated 48.6% win probability, against 27.5% for the draw and 23.9% for Vanspor. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.12 for Vanspor and 1.65 for Ankara Keçiörengücü.

Why Vanspor

At home Vanspor average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Ankara Keçiörengücü's 7.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%.

Why Ankara Keçiörengücü can win

Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Ankara Keçiörengücü average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vanspor, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Ankara Keçiörengücü, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vanspor: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Ankara Keçiörengücü: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Ankara Keçiörengücü are the model's most likely outcome at 48.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.2%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 20/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.12–1.65 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.09–1.65 1-1 13% 51% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win 48.0% 48.0% 32.0% 1.50× 2.08
Draw 27.6% 27.1% 23.0% 1.18× 3.69
Vanspor to win 24.4% 23.6% 45.5% 0.52× 4.23
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü & not both score 24.6% 21.7% 15.8% 1.38× 4.61
Ankara Keçiörengücü & both teams score 23.3% 21.7% 16.7% 1.30× 4.61
Draw & both teams score 19.8% 18.1% 16.2% 1.12× 5.52
Vanspor & both teams score 13.0% 12.7% 18.5% 0.69× 7.88
Vanspor & not both score 11.4% 12.7% 27.5% 0.46× 7.88
Draw & not both score 7.8% 7.6% 7.2% 1.06× 13.08
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 1.5 39.3% 36.6% 26.6% 1.38× 2.74
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 3.5 31.4% 31.8% 19.8% 1.60× 3.15
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 2.5 30.8% 31.8% 23.9% 1.33× 3.15
Draw & under 2.5 21.0% 21.8% 19.4% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & under 3.5 21.0% 21.8% 19.4% 1.13× 4.58
Draw & over 1.5 19.8% 17.7% 16.2% 1.09× 5.64
Vanspor & over 1.5 19.0% 17.7% 37.4% 0.47× 5.64
Vanspor & under 3.5 17.4% 17.7% 25.2% 0.70× 5.64
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 2.5 17.2% 17.7% 8.6% 2.07× 5.64
Ankara Keçiörengücü & over 3.5 16.6% 17.7% 12.6% 1.41× 5.64
Vanspor & over 2.5 15.0% 17.7% 30.2% 0.59× 5.64
Vanspor & under 2.5 9.4% 7.6% 15.8% 0.48× 13.20
Vanspor & over 3.5 7.0% 7.6% 20.7% 0.37× 13.21
Draw & under 1.5 7.8% 7.6% 7.2% 1.05× 13.21
Draw & over 2.5 6.6% 7.6% 4.1% 1.87× 13.21
Draw & over 3.5 6.6% 7.6% 4.1% 1.87× 13.21
Ankara Keçiörengücü & under 1.5 8.7% 7.6% 5.9% 1.29× 13.20
Vanspor & under 1.5 5.4% 7.6% 8.6% 0.88× 13.21
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (1UP) 63.6% 65.2% 1.53
Vanspor (1UP) 43.1% 42.5% 2.36
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2UP) 48.0% 51.9% 1.93
Vanspor (2UP) 24.4% 23.0% 4.35
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win 2nd half 42.2% 41.4% 2.42
2nd half drawn 35.2% 36.4% 2.75
Vanspor to win 2nd half 22.6% 23.6% 4.24
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 in 2nd half 74.0% 74.8% 1.34
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 in 2nd half 62.8% 60.7% 1.65
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 in 2nd half 37.2% 39.3% 2.55
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 in 2nd half 26.0% 25.2% 3.97
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.4% 86.4% 1.16
Vanspor under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.7% 54.2% 1.85
Vanspor over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.3% 45.8% 2.18
Vanspor over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.6% 13.6% 7.33
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (+2.5) 96.9% 96.6% 82.9% 1.17× 1.04
Ankara Keçiörengücü (+1.5) 89.9% 87.4% 69.8% 1.25× 1.14
Ankara Keçiörengücü (+0.5) 75.6% 78.0% 54.5% 1.43× 1.28
Vanspor (+0.5) 52.0% 51.8% 68.0% 0.76× 1.93
Ankara Keçiörengücü (-0.5) 48.0% 48.2% 32.0% 1.51× 2.07
Vanspor (-0.5) 24.4% 22.0% 45.5% 0.48× 4.55
Vanspor (-1.5) 10.1% 12.6% 30.2% 0.42× 7.95
Vanspor (-2.5) 3.1% 3.4% 17.1% 0.20× 29.64
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede 67.5% 71.2% 77.5% 0.92× 1.40
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet 32.5% 28.8% 22.5% 1.28× 3.48
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet in 1st half 61.7% 62.6% 1.60
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede in 1st half 38.3% 37.4% 2.68
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü clean sheet in 2nd half 52.7% 54.5% 1.83
Ankara Keçiörengücü to concede in 2nd half 47.3% 45.5% 2.20
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 3.5 goals 91.5% 92.2% 92.3% 1.00× 1.09
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 goals 80.8% 82.5% 65.8% 1.25× 1.21
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 2.5 goals 77.1% 76.4% 81.5% 0.94× 1.31
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 goals 51.0% 52.9% 67.1% 0.79× 1.89
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 goals 49.0% 47.1% 32.9% 1.43× 2.13
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 2.5 goals 22.9% 23.6% 18.5% 1.28× 4.23
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 goals 19.2% 17.5% 34.2% 0.51× 5.71
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 3.5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 7.7% 1.02× 12.74
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 1.5 in 1st half 85.8% 87.0% 1.15
Ankara Keçiörengücü under 0.5 in 1st half 51.7% 55.0% 1.82
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 0.5 in 1st half 48.3% 45.0% 2.22
Ankara Keçiörengücü over 1.5 in 1st half 14.2% 13.0% 7.68
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores more in 2nd half 42.3% 42.1% 2.37
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores equally in both 34.0% 33.4% 3.00
Ankara Keçiörengücü scores more in 1st half 23.7% 23.6% 4.25
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 53.1% 52.4% 33.6% 1.56× 1.91
Vanspor (away no bet) 46.9% 47.6% 66.4% 0.72× 2.10
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü even goals 51.9% 53.6% 54.5% 0.98× 1.87
Ankara Keçiörengücü odd goals 48.1% 46.4% 45.5% 1.02× 2.16
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.7% 82.4% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.3% 17.6% 5.70
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.6% 66.7% 1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.4% 33.3% 3.00
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 57.1% 58.5% 1.71
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 2+ in a row 40.8% 42.6% 2.35
Vanspor to score 2+ in a row 22.5% 21.7% 4.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.0% 21.7% 4.61
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 3+ in a row 15.6% 17.0% 5.89
Vanspor to score 3+ in a row 5.7% 7.7% 13.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.2% 11.2% 12.6% 0.89× 8.91
0-0 7.8% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.45
0-1 8.7% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.45
0-2 8.5% 7.4% 3.2% 2.36× 13.45
1-0 5.4% 7.4% 8.6% 0.87× 13.45
1-2 9.5% 7.4% 7.2% 1.03× 13.45
1-3 5.2% 7.4% 3.6% 2.06× 13.45
2-1 6.5% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.45
2-2 5.4% 7.4% 3.6% 2.06× 13.45
0-3 4.7% 1.7% 5.0% 0.35× 58.34
0-4 1.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.34
1-4 2.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.34
2-0 4.0% 1.7% 7.7% 0.22× 58.34
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.34
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.34
3-0 1.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.34
3-1 2.4% 1.7% 5.0% 0.35× 58.34
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.34
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.90× 58.35
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.35
4-0 0.4% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.35
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.35
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.35
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.27× 58.35
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.80× 58.35
Any other score 3.2% 1.7% 7.2% 0.24× 58.34
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2nd half DNB) 65.2% 66.3% 1.51
Vanspor (2nd half DNB) 34.8% 33.7% 2.97
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü leading at HT (DNB) 60.0% 61.8% 1.62
Vanspor leading at HT (DNB) 40.0% 38.2% 2.62
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (X2) 75.6% 76.4% 54.5% 1.40× 1.31
Vanspor or Ankara Keçiörengücü (12) 72.4% 72.9% 77.0% 0.95× 1.37
Vanspor or draw (1X) 52.0% 52.0% 68.0% 0.76× 1.92
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw at HT 77.4% 76.8% 1.30
Vanspor or draw at HT 66.1% 67.1% 1.49
Vanspor or Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT 56.6% 57.1% 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw (1UP) 75.6% 82.5% 1.21
Vanspor or draw (1UP) 52.0% 58.9% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü or draw in 2nd half 77.4% 76.4% 1.31
Vanspor or Ankara Keçiörengücü in 2nd half 64.8% 63.6% 1.57
Vanspor or draw in 2nd half 57.8% 58.6% 1.71
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.6% 60.4% 1.65
Neither half drawn 38.4% 39.6% 2.53
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (DNB) 66.3% 67.2% 41.3% 1.63× 1.49
Vanspor (DNB) 33.7% 32.8% 58.7% 0.56× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score first 54.8% 52.4% 1.91
Vanspor to score first 37.4% 37.5% 2.67
No goal scored 7.8% 6.4% 15.64
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.1% 55.3% 50.5% 1.10× 1.81
Not both teams to score 43.9% 44.7% 49.6% 0.90× 2.24
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.9% 41.6% 38.3% 1.09× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 34.4% 34.0% 30.6% 1.11× 2.94
Both score & under 2.5 13.2% 11.9% 12.6% 0.94× 8.41
Not both score & over 2.5 9.5% 8.4% 19.4% 0.44× 11.85
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.8% 83.0% 90.1% 0.92× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.2% 17.0% 9.9% 1.71× 5.90
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.7% 69.5% 1.44
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.3% 30.5% 3.27
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.5% 57.9% 1.73
Both score 2nd half only 24.8% 23.4% 4.27
Both score 1st half only 13.3% 11.9% 8.41
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.9% 14.56
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.2% 82.6% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.8% 17.4% 5.76
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.5% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 44.5% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.8% 46.5% 43.2% 1.08× 2.15
4-6 goals 27.9% 27.0% 32.9% 0.82× 3.70
0-1 goals 22.0% 23.5% 20.7% 1.13× 4.26
7+ goals 2.3% 2.0% 4.1% 0.50× 49.74
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 1 31.7% 32.3% 33.3% 0.97× 3.09
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 2 26.1% 27.4% 14.9% 1.84× 3.65
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score 3+ 22.9% 23.3% 18.5% 1.26× 4.30
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score exactly 0 19.2% 18.2% 34.2% 0.53× 5.49
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.6% 33.8% 1.08× 2.73
Vanspor to score exactly 0 32.5% 32.2% 22.5% 1.43× 3.10
Vanspor to score exactly 2 20.5% 22.8% 18.9% 1.21× 4.38
Vanspor to score 3+ 10.5% 13.3% 25.7% 0.52× 7.54
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.4% 42.9% 2.33
Ankara Keçiörengücü leading at HT 33.9% 32.9% 3.04
Vanspor leading at HT 22.6% 23.2% 4.31
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: 1 52.0% 51.9% 1.93
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: 2 26.3% 26.8% 3.74
Ankara Keçiörengücü -1: X 21.7% 23.3% 4.29
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:1) 75.6% 76.8% 54.5% 1.41× 1.30
Draw (0:1) 14.3% 13.1% 15.8% 0.83× 7.62
Vanspor (0:1) 10.1% 13.1% 30.2% 0.43× 7.63
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:2) 89.9% 86.8% 69.8% 1.24× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 7.0% 7.7% 13.5% 0.57× 12.97
Vanspor (0:2) 3.1% 3.5% 17.1% 0.21× 28.49
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:3) 96.9% 96.7% 82.9% 1.17× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.3% 2.6% 8.1% 0.31× 39.17
Vanspor (0:3) 0.8% 2.6% 9.5% 0.27× 39.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (0:4) 99.3% 97.8% 90.5% 1.08× 1.02
Vanspor (0:4) 0.2% 1.4% 4.1% 0.35× 70.77
Draw (0:4) 0.6% 1.4% 5.9% 0.24× 70.75
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor (1:0) 52.0% 52.4% 68.0% 0.77× 1.91
Ankara Keçiörengücü (1:0) 26.3% 25.1% 17.1% 1.47× 3.98
Draw (1:0) 21.7% 22.1% 15.3% 1.44× 4.53
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor (2:0) 73.7% 74.8% 82.9% 0.90× 1.34
Draw (2:0) 15.1% 15.1% 6.8% 2.24× 6.62
Ankara Keçiörengücü (2:0) 11.2% 11.6% 10.8% 1.07× 8.65
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.4% 48.2% 2.07
Halves equal 26.9% 26.2% 3.82
1st half highest scoring 25.7% 26.1% 3.83
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor to concede 80.8% 82.7% 65.8% 1.26× 1.21
Vanspor clean sheet 19.2% 17.3% 34.2% 0.50× 5.79
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor clean sheet in 1st half 51.7% 54.9% 1.82
Vanspor to concede in 1st half 48.3% 45.1% 2.22
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor to concede in 2nd half 62.8% 60.3% 1.66
Vanspor clean sheet in 2nd half 37.2% 39.7% 2.52
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor under 3.5 goals 97.2% 96.6% 84.2% 1.15× 1.04
Vanspor under 2.5 goals 89.5% 87.3% 74.3% 1.17× 1.15
Vanspor under 1.5 goals 69.0% 68.3% 55.9% 1.22× 1.46
Vanspor over 0.5 goals 67.5% 68.3% 77.5% 0.88× 1.46
Vanspor under 0.5 goals 32.5% 31.7% 22.5% 1.41× 3.15
Vanspor over 1.5 goals 31.0% 31.7% 44.1% 0.72× 3.15
Vanspor over 2.5 goals 10.5% 12.7% 25.7% 0.49× 7.88
Vanspor over 3.5 goals 2.8% 3.4% 15.8% 0.22× 29.42
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor under 1.5 in 1st half 91.5% 93.3% 1.07
Vanspor under 0.5 in 1st half 61.7% 62.4% 1.60
Vanspor over 0.5 in 1st half 38.3% 37.6% 2.66
Vanspor over 1.5 in 1st half 8.5% 6.7% 15.00
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor scores equally in both 43.4% 41.7% 2.40
Vanspor scores more in 2nd half 33.4% 32.2% 3.11
Vanspor scores more in 1st half 23.2% 23.2% 4.31
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü (home no bet) 63.5% 60.2% 58.2% 1.04× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 36.5% 39.8% 41.8% 0.95× 2.52
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor even goals 55.3% 55.6% 53.6% 1.04× 1.80
Vanspor odd goals 44.7% 44.4% 46.4% 0.96× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.2% 32.1% 3.11
HT 0-1 20.8% 22.5% 4.45
HT 1-0 15.1% 19.8% 5.04
HT 1-1 10.4% 10.9% 9.17
HT 0-2 6.9% 8.0% 12.55
Any other HT score 4.2% 2.5% 40.39
HT 2-0 3.7% 2.5% 40.41
HT 1-2 3.4% 2.5% 40.43
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.5% 40.47
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.5% 40.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 27.4% 25.1% 3.98
Draw at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 17.4% 17.3% 5.78
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.0% 17.3% 5.78
Vanspor at HT / Vanspor at FT 13.8% 12.0% 8.32
Draw at HT / Vanspor at FT 9.0% 6.5% 15.44
Vanspor at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.5% 15.50
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.6% 27.50
Vanspor at HT / Ankara Keçiörengücü at FT 3.2% 3.6% 27.55
Ankara Keçiörengücü at HT / Vanspor at FT 1.6% 3.6% 27.59
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score last 54.9% 54.9% 1.82
Vanspor to score last 37.2% 38.5% 2.60
No goal scored 7.8% 6.4% 15.64
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.2% 93.6% 1.07
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 1 at any time 63.6% 63.4% 1.58
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.9% 46.6% 2.15
Vanspor to lead by 1 at any time 43.1% 41.8% 2.39
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 2 at any time 32.8% 31.7% 3.16
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.8% 17.6% 5.68
Vanspor to lead by 2 at any time 15.3% 17.6% 5.69
Ankara Keçiörengücü to lead by 3 at any time 13.5% 11.0% 9.05
Vanspor to lead by 3 at any time 4.3% 2.6% 37.85
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.9% 87.1% 85.1% 1.02× 1.15
1-4 goals 77.4% 77.9% 73.4% 1.06× 1.28
2-6 goals 75.7% 77.9% 75.7% 1.03× 1.28
2-5 goals 71.7% 72.2% 71.6% 1.01× 1.39
2-4 goals 63.2% 62.7% 59.9% 1.05× 1.60
1-3 goals 62.0% 62.7% 56.8% 1.10× 1.60
3-6 goals 50.1% 52.9% 53.6% 0.99× 1.89
2-3 goals 47.8% 47.4% 43.2% 1.10× 2.11
3-5 goals 46.1% 47.4% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
1-2 goals 39.8% 39.0% 36.0% 1.08× 2.56
3-4 goals 37.6% 39.0% 37.8% 1.03× 2.56
4-6 goals 27.9% 28.5% 32.9% 0.87× 3.51
4-5 goals 23.9% 23.7% 28.8% 0.82× 4.22
5-6 goals 12.5% 13.5% 16.2% 0.83× 7.42
7+ goals 2.3% 2.3% 4.1% 0.56× 44.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü never behind 49.0% 54.6% 1.83
Vanspor never behind 28.6% 31.5% 3.18
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 53.4% 50.1% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd number of goals 46.6% 49.9% 50.0% 1.00× 2.00
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 55.0% 1.82
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 45.0% 2.22
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.0% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.0% 48.4% 2.07
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 91.9% 1.00× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 92.8% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.2% 87.8% 80.2% 1.10× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 78.0% 77.0% 79.3% 0.97× 1.30
Under 3.5 goals 69.8% 67.7% 63.5% 1.07× 1.48
Over 2.5 goals 52.4% 51.8% 57.2% 0.91× 1.93
Under 2.5 goals 47.6% 48.2% 42.8% 1.13× 2.08
Over 3.5 goals 30.2% 32.3% 36.5% 0.89× 3.09
Under 1.5 goals 22.0% 23.0% 20.7% 1.11× 4.34
Over 4.5 goals 14.8% 12.2% 19.8% 0.61× 8.21
Under 0.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 7.2% 1.07× 12.91
Over 5.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 8.1% 0.96× 12.91
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.6% 97.3% 95.8% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.2% 92.0% 90.8% 1.01× 1.09
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.5% 81.5% 76.2% 1.07× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.4% 72.1% 73.4% 0.98× 1.39
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.2% 62.3% 54.0% 1.15× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.8% 37.7% 46.0% 0.82× 2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.6% 27.9% 26.6% 1.05× 3.58
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.5% 18.5% 23.8% 0.78× 5.40
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.8% 8.0% 9.2% 0.87× 12.51
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.4% 2.7% 4.2% 0.64× 36.70
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.2% 88.4% 1.13
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.1% 67.0% 1.49
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.8% 67.0% 1.49
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.2% 33.0% 3.03
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.9% 33.0% 3.03
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.8% 11.6% 8.64
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.9% 80.0% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.6% 80.0% 1.25
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.0% 50.5% 1.98
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.0% 49.5% 2.02
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.4% 20.0% 5.00
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.1% 20.0% 5.01
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor not to score in both halves 81.9% 81.2% 1.23
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to score in both halves 69.7% 68.4% 1.46
Ankara Keçiörengücü to score in both halves 30.3% 31.6% 3.16
Vanspor to score in both halves 18.1% 18.8% 5.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.1% 57.8% 50.5% 1.15× 1.73
Only Ankara Keçiörengücü scores 24.6% 21.6% 15.8% 1.37× 4.64
Only Vanspor scores 11.4% 11.2% 27.5% 0.41× 8.94
Neither team scores 7.8% 7.1% 7.2% 0.98× 14.09
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.6% 25.0% 22.5% 1.11× 4.00
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.3% 21.2% 1.05× 4.49
Exactly 4 goals 15.4% 17.6% 17.1% 1.03× 5.68
Exactly 1 goals 14.2% 12.3% 14.0% 0.88× 8.14
Exactly 5 goals 8.5% 7.8% 12.2% 0.64× 12.88
Exactly 0 goals 7.8% 7.8% 7.2% 1.08× 12.88
6 or more goals 6.3% 7.8% 8.1% 0.96× 12.89
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 35.9% 36.9% 2.71
No goals in 1st half 32.2% 34.4% 2.91
2 goals in 1st half 21.1% 21.6% 4.64
3+ goals in 1st half 10.8% 11.4% 8.81
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.0% 50.4% 1.98
1 goal in 2nd half 30.9% 34.3% 2.92
No goals in 2nd half 20.1% 20.5% 4.88
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor not to win both halves 94.7% 92.7% 1.08
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to win both halves 85.4% 87.7% 1.14
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win both halves 14.6% 12.3% 8.15
Vanspor to win both halves 5.3% 7.3% 13.61
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win either half 61.5% 62.1% 1.61
Vanspor to win neither half 60.1% 62.1% 1.61
Vanspor to win either half 39.9% 37.9% 2.64
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win neither half 38.5% 37.9% 2.64
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanspor not to win to nil 88.6% 87.9% 72.5% 1.21× 1.14
Ankara Keçiörengücü not to win to nil 75.4% 78.4% 84.2% 0.93× 1.28
Ankara Keçiörengücü to win to nil 24.6% 21.6% 15.8% 1.37× 4.63
Vanspor to win to nil 11.4% 12.1% 27.5% 0.44× 8.24
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.6% 27.3% 23.0% 1.19× 3.66
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 1 21.7% 23.4% 15.3% 1.53× 4.27
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 2 15.1% 17.2% 6.8% 2.55× 5.80
Vanspor by 1 14.3% 11.8% 15.8% 0.75× 8.44
Ankara Keçiörengücü by 3+ 11.2% 11.8% 10.8% 1.10× 8.45
Vanspor by 2 7.0% 7.3% 13.5% 0.54× 13.77
Vanspor by 3+ 3.1% 3.0% 17.1% 0.17× 33.46
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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