Vasco da Gama v Vitória — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Vasco da Gama

20:00 UTC

Vitória

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 945h before kick-off

Vasco da Gama win

47.0%

model 45.9%

Draw

26.5%

model 28.6%

Vitória win

26.5%

model 25.5%

472726

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.6%
1-0 11.0%
0-0 9.5%
2-1 9.1%
2-0 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	45.2%	Under 2.5	54.8%
BTTS yes	50.4%	BTTS no	49.6%
Vasco da Gama 1+	76.7%	Vasco da Gama 2+	42.8%
Vitória 1+	64.2%	Vitória 2+	27.4%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

80.7% fair odds 1.24

moderate signal · 8612 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 81%

82.6% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1431 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vasco da Gama have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 26.5% for Vitória. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Vasco da Gama and 1.03 for Vitória.

Why Vasco da Gama

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vitória can win

Vitória carry the stronger rating, 1477 Elo against 1436.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vitória, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vitória: 43% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Vasco da Gama are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	462925	1.46–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	462925	1.40–0.97	1-1 14%	42%	48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to win	45.8%	47.3%	48.9%	0.97×	2.11
Draw	29.4%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.58
Vitória to win	24.8%	24.5%	24.0%	1.02×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama & not both score	27.5%	25.2%	28.1%	0.90×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.56
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	18.3%	18.0%	21.0%	0.86×	5.56
Vitória & not both score	14.1%	13.3%	13.8%	0.96×	7.53
Vitória & both teams score	10.7%	13.3%	10.3%	1.29×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.6%	13.3%	6.7%	1.99×	7.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	34.4%	30.8%	36.8%	0.84×	3.25
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	33.8%	30.8%	36.7%	0.84×	3.25
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	24.6%	21.6%	27.5%	0.79×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Draw & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.63
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	21.2%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Vitória & under 3.5	19.8%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Vitória & over 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	17.1%	1.05×	5.56
Vitória & over 2.5	12.5%	12.8%	13.2%	0.97×	7.79
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	12.0%	12.8%	12.4%	1.04×	7.79
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	11.4%	12.8%	12.2%	1.05×	7.79
Vitória & under 2.5	12.3%	12.8%	11.0%	1.17×	7.79
Draw & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	6.7%	1.93×	7.79
Vitória & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.0%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.81
Draw & over 3.5	5.0%	4.8%	7.3%	0.66×	20.81
Vitória & over 3.5	5.0%	4.8%	5.6%	0.87×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	59.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Vitória (1UP)	41.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	45.8%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Vitória (2UP)	24.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.1%	36.0%	—	—	2.77
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	37.0%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Vitória to win 2nd half	23.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.5%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Vitória under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.0%	54.5%	—	—	1.84
Vitória over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.0%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
Vitória over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.5%	12.9%	—	—	7.73

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 2nd half	81.0%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 2nd half	45.0%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.0%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (+2.5)	91.4%	92.1%	90.8%	1.01×	1.09
Vitória (+1.5)	77.3%	78.5%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	75.2%	78.5%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
Vitória (+0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	51.1%	1.03×	1.91
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	45.8%	47.6%	48.9%	0.97×	2.10
Vitória (-0.5)	24.8%	21.5%	24.0%	0.90×	4.65
Vasco da Gama (-1.5)	22.7%	21.5%	23.2%	0.93×	4.65
Vasco da Gama (-2.5)	8.6%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to concede	75.3%	78.7%	79.7%	0.99×	1.27
Vitória clean sheet	24.7%	21.3%	20.3%	1.05×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória clean sheet in 1st half	54.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Vitória to concede in 1st half	45.2%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to concede in 2nd half	55.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Vitória clean sheet in 2nd half	45.0%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 6.5 corners	88.2%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Vitória under 5.5 corners	80.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Vitória under 4.5 corners	69.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Vitória over 2.5 corners	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vitória under 3.5 corners	54.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Vitória over 3.5 corners	45.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vitória under 2.5 corners	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vitória over 4.5 corners	30.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Vitória over 5.5 corners	19.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
Vitória over 6.5 corners	11.8%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 3.5 goals	98.3%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Vitória under 2.5 goals	92.6%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Vitória under 1.5 goals	74.8%	71.9%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Vitória over 0.5 goals	61.9%	63.2%	65.4%	0.97×	1.58
Vitória under 0.5 goals	38.1%	36.8%	34.6%	1.06×	2.72
Vitória over 1.5 goals	25.2%	28.1%	28.1%	1.00×	3.56
Vitória over 2.5 goals	7.4%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.06
Vitória over 3.5 goals	1.7%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória under 1.5 in 1st half	94.2%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Vitória under 0.5 in 1st half	68.0%	69.7%	—	—	1.44
Vitória over 0.5 in 1st half	32.1%	30.3%	—	—	3.30
Vitória over 1.5 in 1st half	5.8%	5.9%	—	—	16.87

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória scores equally in both	47.1%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Vitória scores more in 2nd half	33.0%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
Vitória scores more in 1st half	19.9%	17.9%	—	—	5.58

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (away no bet)	60.9%	61.9%	64.2%	0.96×	1.62
Draw (away no bet)	39.1%	38.1%	35.8%	1.06×	2.62

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória even goals	57.2%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Vitória odd goals	42.8%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.6%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	10.4%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	56.2%	60.2%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	43.8%	39.8%	—	—	2.51

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	48.8%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	34.2%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Vitória to score 2+ in a row	18.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.8%	16.2%	—	—	6.17
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	11.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.32
Vitória to score 3+ in a row	4.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.14

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	92.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	81.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vitória corners (+3.5)	66.7%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Vitória corners (+2.5)	57.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	53.5%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Vitória corners (+1.5)	46.5%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	43.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	33.3%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Vitória corners (-1.5)	18.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Vitória corners (-2.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Vitória corners (-3.5)	7.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.7%	41.8%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	26.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.6%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 10.5 corners	65.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	56.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.3%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	43.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Under 7.5 corners	36.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	34.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	26.4%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	19.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.9%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.72
1-0	12.0%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.72
0-0	10.6%	11.5%	6.7%	1.72×	8.72
2-0	9.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
2-1	8.9%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.51
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
0-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.29
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-0	4.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.30
3-1	4.1%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.30
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.31
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.32
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	1.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.31
4-1	1.4%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.32
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (2nd half DNB)	60.8%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Vitória (2nd half DNB)	39.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	63.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Vitória leading at HT (DNB)	36.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama or draw (1X)	75.2%	75.5%	76.0%	0.99×	1.32
Vasco da Gama or Vitória (12)	70.6%	72.1%	72.7%	0.99×	1.39
Vitória or draw (X2)	54.2%	52.7%	51.1%	1.03×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	80.7%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Vitória or draw at HT	66.1%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Vasco da Gama or Vitória at HT	53.2%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	75.2%	83.9%	—	—	1.19
Vitória or draw (1UP)	54.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	76.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Vitória or draw in 2nd half	63.0%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Vasco da Gama or Vitória in 2nd half	60.9%	64.0%	—	—	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.4%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Neither half drawn	33.6%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	64.8%	62.8%	67.1%	0.94×	1.59
Vitória (DNB)	35.2%	37.2%	32.9%	1.13×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score first	52.9%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Vitória to score first	36.5%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	10.6%	9.4%	—	—	10.62

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	52.2%	51.3%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Both teams to score	47.8%	48.7%	51.7%	0.94×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.0%	41.6%	38.9%	1.07×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	34.0%	34.5%	38.3%	0.90×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	13.9%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.2%	8.3%	9.5%	0.87×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.7%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.3%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.4%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	64.2%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both score 2nd half only	21.1%	21.3%	—	—	4.71
Both score 1st half only	11.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.5%	4.9%	—	—	20.34

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	85.3%	85.1%	—	—	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	14.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	52.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
A goal in each half	47.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.1%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
0-1 goals	30.5%	30.7%	25.7%	1.19×	3.26
4-6 goals	20.3%	22.9%	24.3%	0.94×	4.37
7+ goals	1.1%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to score exactly 0	38.1%	35.9%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Vitória to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Vitória to score exactly 2	17.8%	19.6%	19.0%	1.03×	5.11
Vitória to score 3+	7.4%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.70

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.07
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	24.7%	23.3%	20.3%	1.15×	4.29
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	24.2%	23.3%	27.1%	0.86×	4.29
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	16.6%	18.8%	18.6%	1.01×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	46.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	33.9%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Vitória leading at HT	19.3%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama -1: 2	54.2%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Vasco da Gama -1: X	23.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Vasco da Gama -1: 1	22.7%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (0:1)	54.2%	51.3%	51.1%	1.00×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	23.1%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	22.7%	24.2%	23.2%	1.04×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (0:2)	77.3%	79.4%	76.8%	1.03×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	14.1%	11.0%	14.1%	0.78×	9.09
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	8.6%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.03

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (0:3)	91.4%	92.7%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.8%	6.7%	0.87×	17.23
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.09

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.0%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.89
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	82.03

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	75.2%	78.6%	76.0%	1.03×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.6%	17.1%	14.6%	1.17×	5.85
Vitória (1:0)	9.2%	6.9%	9.5%	0.73×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	90.8%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.7%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.69
Vitória (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	3.5%	0.66×	43.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Halves equal	29.0%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
1st half highest scoring	26.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	61.9%	63.6%	65.4%	0.97×	1.57
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	38.1%	36.4%	34.6%	1.05×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	68.0%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	32.1%	30.0%	—	—	3.34

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 2nd half	56.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Vasco da Gama to concede in 2nd half	44.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	83.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	65.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	58.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	54.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	45.9%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	41.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	34.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	16.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	94.3%	0.98×	1.08
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	83.4%	82.2%	81.4%	1.01×	1.22
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	75.3%	77.7%	79.7%	0.98×	1.29
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	59.2%	58.6%	54.4%	1.08×	1.71
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	40.8%	41.4%	45.6%	0.91×	2.42
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	24.7%	22.3%	20.3%	1.10×	4.49
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	16.6%	17.8%	18.6%	0.96×	5.62
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	5.4%	7.8%	5.7%	1.36×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	87.8%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	54.8%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	45.2%	49.4%	—	—	2.02
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	12.2%	9.7%	—	—	10.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama scores equally in both	38.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Vasco da Gama scores more in 2nd half	36.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Vasco da Gama scores more in 1st half	25.1%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.2%	51.4%	53.3%	0.97×	1.95
Vitória (home no bet)	45.8%	48.6%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	53.0%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Vasco da Gama odd goals	47.0%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.4%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
HT 1-0	22.2%	24.4%	—	—	4.11
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	8.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
HT 2-0	6.7%	6.9%	—	—	14.48
HT 0-2	2.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
Any other HT score	3.0%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.13
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	27.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	16.7%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Vitória at HT / Vitória at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Vitória at FT	10.6%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.67
Vitória at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Vitória at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	2.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.71
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vitória at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.73

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score last	53.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Vitória to score last	36.4%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
No goal scored	10.6%	8.8%	—	—	11.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.5%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Vitória to lead by 1 at any time	41.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	27.9%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.54
Vitória to lead by 2 at any time	13.3%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Vitória to lead by 3 at any time	3.4%	1.6%	—	—	61.43

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama most corners	64.0%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Vitória most corners	26.3%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.3%	83.4%	81.7%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	68.5%	68.8%	73.8%	0.93×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.1%	68.8%	68.7%	1.00×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.2%	68.8%	69.7%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.1%	48.5%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	47.3%	48.5%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
3-6 goals	41.0%	43.6%	47.1%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	38.8%	39.2%	43.0%	0.91×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.0%	35.2%	36.0%	0.98×	2.84
4-6 goals	20.3%	24.5%	24.3%	1.01×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.0%	18.8%	20.2%	0.93×	5.31
5-6 goals	8.1%	8.9%	11.3%	0.79×	11.26
7+ goals	1.1%	2.6%	0.6%	4.02×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama never behind	48.4%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Vitória never behind	29.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	42.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.0%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.6%	95.4%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.5%	87.6%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	78.6%	77.3%	75.2%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	69.5%	66.3%	74.3%	0.89×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	57.9%	58.6%	52.4%	1.12×	1.71
Over 2.5 goals	42.1%	41.4%	47.6%	0.87×	2.42
Under 1.5 goals	30.5%	33.7%	25.7%	1.31×	2.97
Over 3.5 goals	21.4%	22.7%	24.8%	0.92×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	10.6%	12.4%	6.7%	1.86×	8.07
Over 4.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.4%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.9%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.4%	97.2%	94.9%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	89.6%	86.7%	86.5%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	73.0%	72.4%	67.9%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	58.0%	55.8%	64.9%	0.86×	1.79
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.0%	44.2%	35.1%	1.26×	2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	27.0%	27.6%	32.1%	0.86×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	10.4%	13.3%	13.5%	0.98×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.6%	2.8%	5.1%	0.55×	35.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.1%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.62

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half	62.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.59

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	83.9%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	74.4%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	25.6%	22.3%	—	—	4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.98

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória not to score in both halves	85.9%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	75.2%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	24.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.63
Vitória to score in both halves	14.1%	14.6%	—	—	6.87

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	47.8%	50.7%	51.7%	0.98×	1.97
Only Vasco da Gama scores	27.5%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Only Vitória scores	14.1%	11.0%	13.8%	0.80×	9.06
Neither team scores	10.6%	11.0%	6.7%	1.65×	9.07

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.4%	24.9%	26.8%	0.93×	4.02
Exactly 3 goals	20.7%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	19.9%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.2%	12.1%	13.2%	0.92×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	10.6%	12.1%	6.7%	1.82×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.4%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	37.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
1 goal in 1st half	36.4%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
2 goals in 1st half	18.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
3+ goals in 1st half	7.8%	7.4%	—	—	13.59

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	40.4%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	34.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	25.6%	29.1%	—	—	3.43

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória not to win both halves	95.3%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	87.3%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	12.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Vitória to win both halves	4.7%	2.9%	—	—	34.88

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória to win neither half	61.5%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Vasco da Gama to win either half	58.1%	59.2%	—	—	1.69
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	41.9%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
Vitória to win either half	38.5%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vitória not to win to nil	85.9%	88.1%	86.2%	1.02×	1.14
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	72.5%	75.3%	71.9%	1.05×	1.33
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	27.5%	24.7%	28.1%	0.88×	4.05
Vitória to win to nil	14.1%	11.9%	13.8%	0.86×	8.40

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.4%	27.9%	27.3%	1.02×	3.58
Vasco da Gama by 1	23.1%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Vitória by 1	15.6%	17.0%	14.6%	1.17×	5.87
Vasco da Gama by 2	14.1%	11.8%	14.1%	0.83×	8.50
Vasco da Gama by 3+	8.6%	7.2%	9.2%	0.78×	13.90
Vitória by 2	6.7%	7.2%	6.2%	1.16×	13.91
Vitória by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.83