Vélez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield

20:00 UTC

San Lorenzo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 129h before kick-off

Vélez Sarsfield win

48.1%

model 45.8%

Draw

29.3%

model 32.3%

San Lorenzo win

22.6%

model 21.9%

482923

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 17.4%
0-0 16.2%
1-1 13.2%
0-1 10.4%
2-0 10.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	28.4%	Under 2.5	71.6%
BTTS yes	35.1%	BTTS no	64.9%
Vélez Sarsfield 1+	68.4%	Vélez Sarsfield 2+	32.0%
San Lorenzo 1+	50.5%	San Lorenzo 2+	15.7%

Expected goals 1.15 – 0.70. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

23/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Under 2.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 66%

71.9% fair odds 1.39

moderate signal · 1675 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.9% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Vélez Sarsfield carry the stronger rating, 1576 Elo against 1482.

Risk factors

The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Vélez Sarsfield have an estimated 48.1% win probability, against 29.3% for the draw and 22.6% for San Lorenzo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for Vélez Sarsfield and 0.70 for San Lorenzo.

Why Vélez Sarsfield

Vélez Sarsfield carry the stronger rating, 1576 Elo against 1482.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. A combined 1.85 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why San Lorenzo can win

Nothing in the data singles out San Lorenzo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Vélez Sarsfield, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for San Lorenzo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Vélez Sarsfield: 52% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. San Lorenzo: 56% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Vélez Sarsfield are the model's most likely outcome at 48.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 17.4%. Confidence 23/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	463222	1.15–0.70	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	473519	1.04–0.55	0-0 21%	21%	28%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to win	46.6%	47.4%	41.8%	1.13×	2.11
Draw	34.9%	30.4%	30.7%	0.99×	3.29
San Lorenzo to win	18.6%	19.4%	27.6%	0.70×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & not both score	36.9%	33.3%	27.7%	1.20×	3.00
Draw & not both score	20.9%	21.8%	14.8%	1.47×	4.59
San Lorenzo & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Draw & both teams score	13.9%	13.3%	16.0%	0.83×	7.54
Vélez Sarsfield & both teams score	9.7%	8.3%	14.3%	0.59×	11.99
San Lorenzo & both teams score	4.2%	4.9%	10.6%	0.46×	20.49

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield & under 3.5	41.7%	40.3%	34.8%	1.16×	2.48
Draw & under 2.5	33.1%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
Draw & under 3.5	33.1%	30.8%	28.2%	1.09×	3.25
Vélez Sarsfield & under 2.5	31.8%	30.7%	23.6%	1.30×	3.25
Vélez Sarsfield & over 1.5	25.8%	26.1%	27.8%	0.94×	3.84
Vélez Sarsfield & under 1.5	20.7%	21.6%	14.1%	1.53×	4.63
Draw & under 1.5	20.9%	21.6%	14.8%	1.46×	4.63
San Lorenzo & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	23.5%	0.77×	5.56
Vélez Sarsfield & over 2.5	14.8%	12.8%	18.4%	0.70×	7.79
Draw & over 1.5	13.9%	12.8%	16.0%	0.80×	7.79
San Lorenzo & under 2.5	13.7%	12.8%	14.6%	0.88×	7.79
San Lorenzo & under 1.5	10.6%	12.8%	10.3%	1.25×	7.79
San Lorenzo & over 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	17.4%	0.45×	12.63
Vélez Sarsfield & over 3.5	4.8%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.81
San Lorenzo & over 2.5	4.9%	4.8%	13.1%	0.37×	20.81
Draw & over 2.5	1.8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
Draw & over 3.5	1.8%	4.8%	2.6%	1.83×	20.83
San Lorenzo & over 3.5	1.1%	4.8%	4.2%	1.14×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1UP)	55.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
San Lorenzo (1UP)	28.9%	26.9%	—	—	3.71

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2UP)	46.6%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
San Lorenzo (2UP)	18.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	48.3%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Vélez Sarsfield to win 2nd half	35.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
San Lorenzo to win 2nd half	16.7%	17.8%	—	—	5.62

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 2nd half	95.7%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 2nd half	72.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 2nd half	28.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 2nd half	4.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.19

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.0%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.0%	11.1%	—	—	8.97

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (+2.5)	94.2%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
Vélez Sarsfield (+0.5)	81.4%	82.6%	72.4%	1.14×	1.21
San Lorenzo (+1.5)	80.8%	82.6%	82.3%	1.00×	1.21
San Lorenzo (+0.5)	53.4%	52.4%	58.2%	0.90×	1.91
Vélez Sarsfield (-0.5)	46.6%	47.6%	41.8%	1.14×	2.10
Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)	19.2%	17.4%	17.7%	0.99×	5.74
San Lorenzo (-0.5)	18.6%	17.4%	27.6%	0.63×	5.74
Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)	5.8%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to concede	64.7%	67.6%	68.2%	0.99×	1.48
San Lorenzo clean sheet	35.3%	32.4%	31.8%	1.02×	3.09

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 1st half	63.9%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
San Lorenzo to concede in 1st half	36.1%	35.3%	—	—	2.83

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 2nd half	55.2%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
San Lorenzo to concede in 2nd half	44.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.33

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 6.5 corners	92.1%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
San Lorenzo under 5.5 corners	85.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
San Lorenzo under 4.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
San Lorenzo over 2.5 corners	61.6%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
San Lorenzo under 3.5 corners	57.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
San Lorenzo over 3.5 corners	42.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
San Lorenzo under 2.5 corners	38.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
San Lorenzo over 4.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
San Lorenzo over 5.5 corners	14.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77
San Lorenzo over 6.5 corners	7.9%	10.1%	—	—	9.90

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 3.5 goals	99.8%	97.5%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
San Lorenzo under 2.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	93.4%	1.04×	1.03
San Lorenzo under 1.5 goals	89.5%	87.8%	78.2%	1.12×	1.14
San Lorenzo under 0.5 goals	57.9%	59.4%	42.4%	1.40×	1.68
San Lorenzo over 0.5 goals	42.1%	40.6%	57.6%	0.70×	2.47
San Lorenzo over 1.5 goals	10.5%	12.2%	21.8%	0.56×	8.21
San Lorenzo over 2.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	6.6%	0.38×	39.88
San Lorenzo over 3.5 goals	0.2%	2.5%	1.1%	2.19×	39.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 1st half	97.9%	96.3%	—	—	1.04
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 1st half	80.3%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 1st half	19.7%	17.6%	—	—	5.67
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 1st half	2.1%	3.7%	—	—	27.15

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo scores equally in both	62.1%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
San Lorenzo scores more in 2nd half	23.3%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
San Lorenzo scores more in 1st half	14.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.85

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (away no bet)	57.2%	57.3%	57.7%	0.99×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.8%	42.7%	42.3%	1.01×	2.34

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo even goals	66.7%	64.9%	58.4%	1.11×	1.54
San Lorenzo odd goals	33.3%	35.1%	41.6%	0.84×	2.85

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	96.6%	96.7%	—	—	1.03
Both halves over 1.5 goals	3.4%	3.3%	—	—	30.13

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Not both halves under 1.5	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	31.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Vélez Sarsfield to score 2+ in a row	24.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	8.2%	5.5%	—	—	18.12
San Lorenzo to score 2+ in a row	8.1%	5.5%	—	—	18.13
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+ in a row	7.1%	5.5%	—	—	18.21
San Lorenzo to score 3+ in a row	1.2%	2.5%	—	—	40.25

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+3.5)	94.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+2.5)	90.8%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Vélez Sarsfield corners (+1.5)	84.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
San Lorenzo corners (+3.5)	68.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
San Lorenzo corners (+2.5)	57.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-1.5)	54.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
San Lorenzo corners (+1.5)	46.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-2.5)	42.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Vélez Sarsfield corners (-3.5)	31.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
San Lorenzo corners (-1.5)	15.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
San Lorenzo corners (-2.5)	9.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
San Lorenzo corners (-3.5)	5.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	51.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	28.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	19.8%	22.6%	—	—	4.43

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.3%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	80.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	72.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.7%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.9%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	51.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.1%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	37.3%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	19.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.17
Over 12.5 corners	13.7%	16.9%	—	—	5.91

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	20.9%	20.1%	14.8%	1.35×	4.98
1-0	20.7%	20.1%	14.1%	1.42×	4.99
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	13.5%	0.85×	8.71
0-1	10.6%	11.5%	10.3%	1.12×	8.72
2-0	11.1%	11.5%	9.6%	1.20×	8.72
2-1	6.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.30
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.84×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.01×	58.32
1-2	3.2%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.32
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
2-2	1.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
2-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
2-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
3-0	3.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.63×	58.30
3-1	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.31
3-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.07×	58.32
3-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	15.04×	58.32
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.31
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.15×	58.32
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.32
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.52×	58.32
Any other score	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2nd half DNB)	67.6%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
San Lorenzo (2nd half DNB)	32.4%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT (DNB)	69.8%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
San Lorenzo leading at HT (DNB)	30.2%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1X)	81.4%	80.6%	72.4%	1.11×	1.24
Vélez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo (12)	65.1%	69.6%	69.3%	1.00×	1.44
San Lorenzo or draw (X2)	53.4%	52.6%	58.2%	0.91×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw at HT	86.9%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
San Lorenzo or draw at HT	69.7%	67.3%	—	—	1.49
Vélez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo at HT	43.3%	43.3%	—	—	2.31

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw (1UP)	81.4%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
San Lorenzo or draw (1UP)	53.4%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield or draw in 2nd half	83.3%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
San Lorenzo or draw in 2nd half	65.0%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Vélez Sarsfield or San Lorenzo in 2nd half	51.7%	54.8%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	77.1%	77.6%	—	—	1.29
Neither half drawn	22.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (DNB)	71.5%	71.4%	60.3%	1.18×	1.40
San Lorenzo (DNB)	28.5%	28.6%	39.7%	0.72×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score first	51.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
San Lorenzo to score first	27.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.59
No goal scored	20.9%	22.4%	—	—	4.47

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	72.2%	62.5%	59.4%	1.05×	1.60
Both teams to score	27.8%	37.5%	40.6%	0.92×	2.67

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	66.5%	57.0%	52.8%	1.08×	1.75
Both score & over 2.5	15.6%	21.5%	27.3%	0.79×	4.66
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.4%	13.5%	0.92×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	5.7%	8.3%	6.7%	1.23×	12.08

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	97.1%	91.6%	94.1%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	2.9%	8.4%	5.9%	1.41×	11.96

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	87.3%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Both teams to score in 2nd half	12.7%	12.4%	—	—	8.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	81.0%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both score 2nd half only	11.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score 1st half only	6.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.79
Both score in both halves	0.9%	4.8%	—	—	21.02

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	92.8%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Both teams to score by HT	7.2%	7.0%	—	—	14.26

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	70.4%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
A goal in each half	29.6%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	52.3%	41.4%	39.0%	1.06×	2.41
2-3 goals	39.9%	35.1%	47.3%	0.74×	2.85
4-6 goals	7.6%	7.6%	13.5%	0.57×	13.11
7+ goals	0.1%	1.8%	0.5%	4.02×	54.55

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score exactly 0	57.9%	51.9%	42.4%	1.22×	1.93
San Lorenzo to score exactly 1	31.7%	33.8%	35.9%	0.94×	2.96
San Lorenzo to score exactly 2	8.7%	8.6%	15.3%	0.56×	11.69
San Lorenzo to score 3+	1.8%	4.6%	6.6%	0.69×	21.95

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 1	36.8%	35.5%	36.5%	0.97×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 0	35.3%	35.5%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield to score exactly 2	19.2%	18.8%	21.8%	0.86×	5.32
Vélez Sarsfield to score 3+	8.8%	10.4%	10.1%	1.02×	9.65

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	56.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Vélez Sarsfield leading at HT	30.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
San Lorenzo leading at HT	13.1%	11.8%	—	—	8.49

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 2	53.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Vélez Sarsfield -1: X	27.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Vélez Sarsfield -1: 1	19.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:1)	53.4%	51.3%	58.2%	0.88×	1.95
Draw (0:1)	27.4%	27.0%	24.3%	1.11×	3.70
Vélez Sarsfield (0:1)	19.2%	17.8%	17.7%	1.01×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:2)	80.8%	82.9%	82.3%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	12.8%	0.86×	9.10
Vélez Sarsfield (0:2)	5.8%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.07

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:3)	94.2%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.4%	2.4%	3.4%	0.70×	41.94
Vélez Sarsfield (0:3)	1.4%	2.4%	1.7%	1.39×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:4)	98.6%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	0.97×	81.84
Vélez Sarsfield (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	2.14×	81.94

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (1:0)	81.4%	81.4%	72.4%	1.12×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	14.1%	12.7%	18.6%	0.68×	7.86
San Lorenzo (1:0)	4.4%	3.3%	9.1%	0.36×	30.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield (2:0)	95.6%	96.8%	90.9%	1.06×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.7%	2.3%	6.3%	0.36×	43.70
San Lorenzo (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	3.0%	0.77×	43.88

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	39.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Halves equal	35.8%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
1st half highest scoring	24.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet	57.9%	60.7%	42.4%	1.43×	1.65
Vélez Sarsfield to concede	42.1%	39.3%	57.6%	0.68×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 1st half	80.3%	82.1%	—	—	1.22
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 1st half	19.7%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet in 2nd half	72.0%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Vélez Sarsfield to concede in 2nd half	28.0%	27.2%	—	—	3.67

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 corners	71.8%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Vélez Sarsfield under 6.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Vélez Sarsfield under 5.5 corners	57.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vélez Sarsfield over 4.5 corners	57.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Vélez Sarsfield under 4.5 corners	43.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vélez Sarsfield over 5.5 corners	42.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Vélez Sarsfield over 6.5 corners	30.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 corners	28.2%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 3.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Vélez Sarsfield under 2.5 goals	91.2%	92.2%	89.9%	1.03×	1.09
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 goals	72.0%	74.2%	68.2%	1.09×	1.35
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 goals	64.7%	63.6%	68.2%	0.93×	1.57
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 goals	35.3%	36.4%	31.8%	1.14×	2.75
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 goals	28.0%	25.8%	31.8%	0.81×	3.88
Vélez Sarsfield over 2.5 goals	8.8%	7.8%	10.1%	0.77×	12.82
Vélez Sarsfield over 3.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.59

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield under 1.5 in 1st half	92.5%	94.8%	—	—	1.06
Vélez Sarsfield under 0.5 in 1st half	63.9%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Vélez Sarsfield over 0.5 in 1st half	36.1%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
Vélez Sarsfield over 1.5 in 1st half	7.5%	5.2%	—	—	19.08

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield scores equally in both	45.3%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 2nd half	32.2%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Vélez Sarsfield scores more in 1st half	22.5%	21.0%	—	—	4.77

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	65.3%	64.1%	52.6%	1.22×	1.56
San Lorenzo (home no bet)	34.7%	35.9%	47.4%	0.76×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield even goals	56.2%	55.3%	55.6%	0.99×	1.81
Vélez Sarsfield odd goals	43.8%	44.7%	44.4%	1.01×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	51.4%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
HT 1-0	22.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 0-1	11.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 1-1	5.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 2-0	5.2%	6.9%	—	—	14.58
HT 0-2	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
Any other HT score	1.2%	2.4%	—	—	42.34
HT 2-1	1.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.35
HT 1-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.38
HT 2-2	0.1%	2.4%	—	—	42.41

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	27.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	25.9%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
Draw at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	19.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	9.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.43
San Lorenzo at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	8.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.45
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.90
San Lorenzo at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
San Lorenzo at HT / Vélez Sarsfield at FT	1.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.00
Vélez Sarsfield at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	0.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.01

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield to score last	51.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
San Lorenzo to score last	27.1%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	79.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 1 at any time	55.3%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
San Lorenzo to lead by 1 at any time	28.9%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	27.8%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 2 at any time	21.8%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.04
Vélez Sarsfield to lead by 3 at any time	6.5%	6.6%	—	—	15.08
San Lorenzo to lead by 2 at any time	6.0%	6.6%	—	—	15.10
San Lorenzo to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	1.6%	—	—	64.37

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield most corners	65.7%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
San Lorenzo most corners	23.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	10.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	78.5%	78.7%	84.3%	0.93×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.8%	78.7%	79.9%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.3%	72.3%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	57.7%	59.1%	51.4%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	47.5%	48.4%	60.7%	0.80×	2.06
2-5 goals	47.1%	48.4%	60.1%	0.81×	2.06
2-4 goals	45.4%	48.4%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	39.9%	39.2%	47.3%	0.83×	2.55
3-6 goals	21.3%	24.4%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	20.8%	24.4%	33.0%	0.74×	4.09
3-4 goals	19.1%	18.8%	28.6%	0.66×	5.31
4-6 goals	7.6%	8.9%	13.5%	0.66×	11.26
4-5 goals	7.1%	8.9%	12.9%	0.69×	11.26
5-6 goals	2.2%	2.6%	5.0%	0.51×	39.17
7+ goals	0.1%	2.5%	0.5%	5.58×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield never behind	50.2%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
San Lorenzo never behind	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.96

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.9%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.1%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	63.4%	60.8%	—	—	1.65
Odd goals in 1st half	36.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	58.3%	61.1%	—	—	1.64
Odd goals in 2nd half	41.7%	38.9%	—	—	2.57

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.4%	95.4%	99.0%	0.96×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	94.6%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	92.3%	92.3%	86.2%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	79.1%	77.3%	85.2%	0.91×	1.29
Under 2.5 goals	78.6%	77.3%	66.1%	1.17×	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	52.3%	52.5%	39.0%	1.35×	1.90
Over 1.5 goals	47.7%	47.5%	61.0%	0.78×	2.11
Over 2.5 goals	21.4%	22.7%	33.9%	0.67×	4.41
Under 0.5 goals	20.9%	22.7%	14.8%	1.53×	4.41
Over 3.5 goals	7.7%	7.7%	13.8%	0.56×	12.93
Over 4.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	5.4%	0.85×	21.84
Over 5.5 goals	0.6%	4.6%	1.0%	4.46×	21.87

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.9%	97.2%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.4%	97.2%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	97.6%	97.2%	94.1%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	91.0%	92.4%	82.7%	1.12×	1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.0%	72.3%	53.5%	1.35×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.0%	27.7%	46.5%	0.60×	3.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	9.0%	7.6%	17.3%	0.44×	13.17
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	2.4%	2.8%	5.9%	0.48×	35.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.6%	2.8%	1.1%	2.61×	35.68
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.1%	2.8%	0.5%	6.11×	35.69

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	97.0%	97.5%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	85.5%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Under 0.5 in 1st half	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Over 0.5 in 1st half	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 1.5 in 1st half	14.5%	11.0%	—	—	9.07
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.52

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	93.3%	90.8%	—	—	1.10
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	76.3%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	60.1%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	39.9%	38.7%	—	—	2.58
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.7%	20.5%	—	—	4.89
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	6.7%	9.2%	—	—	10.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to score in both halves	94.5%	91.1%	—	—	1.10
Vélez Sarsfield not to score in both halves	83.8%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Vélez Sarsfield to score in both halves	16.2%	15.6%	—	—	6.40
San Lorenzo to score in both halves	5.5%	8.9%	—	—	11.19

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Vélez Sarsfield scores	36.9%	39.9%	27.7%	1.44×	2.51
Both teams score	27.8%	26.1%	40.6%	0.64×	3.83
Neither team scores	20.9%	22.2%	14.8%	1.50×	4.50
Only San Lorenzo scores	14.3%	11.0%	17.1%	0.65×	9.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	31.4%	25.4%	24.3%	1.05×	3.94
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	27.3%	0.91×	4.02
Exactly 0 goals	20.9%	22.6%	14.8%	1.52×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	13.7%	12.1%	20.2%	0.60×	8.25
Exactly 4 goals	5.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.15
Exactly 5 goals	1.7%	4.5%	4.4%	1.01×	22.37
6 or more goals	0.6%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.39

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	51.4%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1 goal in 1st half	34.1%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	11.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.24
3+ goals in 1st half	3.0%	2.5%	—	—	40.52

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	39.9%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
1 goal in 2nd half	36.3%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	23.7%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win both halves	97.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Vélez Sarsfield not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Vélez Sarsfield to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
San Lorenzo to win both halves	2.2%	2.8%	—	—	36.31

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to win neither half	72.4%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Vélez Sarsfield to win either half	54.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Vélez Sarsfield to win neither half	45.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
San Lorenzo to win either half	27.6%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win to nil	85.7%	88.1%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Vélez Sarsfield not to win to nil	63.1%	66.5%	72.3%	0.92×	1.50
Vélez Sarsfield to win to nil	36.9%	33.5%	27.7%	1.21×	2.99
San Lorenzo to win to nil	14.3%	11.9%	17.1%	0.70×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vélez Sarsfield by 1	27.4%	27.9%	24.3%	1.15×	3.59
Draw	34.9%	27.8%	30.7%	0.90×	3.60
San Lorenzo by 1	14.1%	11.8%	18.6%	0.63×	8.50
Vélez Sarsfield by 2	13.3%	11.8%	12.8%	0.92×	8.50
Vélez Sarsfield by 3+	5.8%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.92
San Lorenzo by 2	3.7%	2.7%	6.3%	0.43×	36.86
San Lorenzo by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	36.95