Venezia v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 27 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
2 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.62
Goals − xG
-1.02 – +0.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
19.3%
Draw
29.8%
AC Milan win
51.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLLLLLLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 16.4 xG
conceded 23
from 23.3 xG
AC Milan are conceding fewer than expected — 2.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWWDDWDW last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 13
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.84–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–2.13 | 1-2 10% | 63% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Venezia 1.02 xGAC Milan 1.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Venezia attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Venezia |
Fali Candé | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | John Yeboah |
| 3' |
 AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tammy Abraham |
| 4' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Youssouf Fofana |
| 5' |
Venezia |
Gianluca Busio | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | John Yeboah |
| 6' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Busio |
| 21' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | John Yeboah |
| 23' |
Venezia |
Jay Idzes | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gianluca Busio |
| 23' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jay Idzes |
| 26' |
AC Milan |
Theo Hernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Reijnders |
| 31' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joël Schingtienne |
| 49' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Pulisic |
| 53' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
AC Milan |
Strahinja Pavlovic | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
AC Milan |
Tammy Abraham | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 70' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ruben Loftus-Cheek |
| 71' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 74' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 88' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 93' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 93' |
Venezia |
Christian Gytkjær | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
Venezia |
Jay Idzes | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 95' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.29 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Tijjani Reijnders |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Pulisic FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.01 | 0.46 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Theo Hernández DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| Tijjani Reijnders MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.09 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alejandro Jiménez DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Rafael Leão FWL | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Tammy Abraham FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| Santiago Giménez Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Kyle Walker Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| Filippo Terracciano Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Félix Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| John Yeboah FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ridgeciano Haps DML | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cheick Conde MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Gianluca Busio MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Daniel Fila FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Christian Gytkjær Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kike Pérez Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Francesco Zampano Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |