Venezia v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 11 September 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 10 Sep 2026, 19:28 UTC

Venezia

2–4

1.03 – 3.13 xG

Fiorentina

Shots

10 – 19

On target

3 – 10

Shots in box

8 – 15

xG per shot

0.10 – 0.18

Set-piece xG

0.44 – 0.06

Goals − xG

+0.97 – +0.62

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 11 Sep, 11:38 · 7h before kick-off

Venezia win

46.5%

model 45.5%

Draw

22.9%

model 23.6%

Fiorentina win

30.6%

model 30.9%

472331

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,541 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.8%
2-1 9.2%
1-0 7.9%
1-2 7.4%
2-0 6.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	59.2%	Under 2.5	40.8%
BTTS yes	60.9%	BTTS no	39.1%
Venezia 1+	81.8%	Venezia 2+	50.8%
Fiorentina 1+	74.5%	Fiorentina 2+	39.6%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

93%

★ Best pick

Venezia over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 39%

52.8% fair odds 1.90

strong signal · 8013 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 92%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Venezia carry the stronger rating, 1606 Elo against 1504.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.96.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Venezia have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 30.6% for Fiorentina and 22.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Venezia and 1.37 for Fiorentina.

Why Venezia

Venezia carry the stronger rating, 1606 Elo against 1504. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.96.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Fiorentina can win

Away from home Fiorentina average 0.50 xG a match.

Key players

Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.34), Antoine Hainaut (0.34), John Yeboah (0.28). Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Alieu Njie (0.40), Albert Gudmundsson (0.33).

Availability

1 of Venezia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 73% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Venezia: 60% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.43 xG a match from set pieces. Fiorentina: 44% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.15 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-11 15:19 · team_stats 2026-09-11 06:03 · availability 2026-09-11 15:38 · prediction 2026-09-10 19:28 ·

Venezia are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.8%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLLLLLLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.4 xG conceded 23 from 23.3 xG

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWDLLLWDLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.6 xG conceded 18 from 17.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	462431	1.70–1.37	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
ai-blend-oos	402436	1.43–1.33	0%	0%	0%	Home ✗
dc-xg	382537	1.47–1.44	1-1 12%	56%	59%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	362539	1.41–1.47	1-1 12%	55%	58%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win	39.3%	36.2%	34.0%	1.07×	2.76
Venezia to win	37.6%	36.2%	39.4%	0.92×	2.76
Draw	23.1%	24.6%	26.8%	0.92×	4.07

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & both teams score	23.3%	21.8%	13.3%	1.64×	4.59
Venezia & both teams score	22.3%	21.8%	16.9%	1.29×	4.60
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.55
Fiorentina & not both score	16.0%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.55
Venezia & not both score	15.3%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.55
Draw & not both score	3.8%	4.9%	8.2%	0.60×	20.36

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina & over 1.5	33.0%	31.0%	24.6%	1.26×	3.22
Venezia & over 1.5	31.5%	31.0%	29.0%	1.07×	3.22
Fiorentina & over 2.5	27.9%	25.9%	18.1%	1.44×	3.85
Venezia & over 2.5	26.6%	25.9%	22.5%	1.15×	3.86
Fiorentina & under 3.5	22.7%	21.6%	26.6%	0.81×	4.63
Venezia & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	29.4%	0.73×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.57
Fiorentina & over 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	7.4%	2.41×	5.57
Venezia & over 3.5	15.7%	18.0%	10.1%	1.78×	5.57
Draw & under 2.5	13.9%	12.9%	19.9%	0.64×	7.78
Draw & under 3.5	13.9%	12.9%	19.9%	0.64×	7.78
Fiorentina & under 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	16.0%	0.80×	7.78
Venezia & under 2.5	11.0%	12.9%	17.0%	0.75×	7.78
Draw & over 2.5	9.2%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.57
Draw & over 3.5	9.2%	8.0%	6.9%	1.15×	12.57
Venezia & under 1.5	6.1%	8.0%	10.5%	0.76×	12.57
Fiorentina & under 1.5	6.3%	8.0%	9.5%	0.84×	12.57
Draw & under 1.5	3.8%	4.9%	8.2%	0.59×	20.58

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1UP)	58.4%	58.1%	51.1%	1.14×	1.72
Venezia (1UP)	57.0%	58.1%	54.7%	1.06×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2UP)	39.3%	37.3%	36.5%	1.02×	2.68
Venezia (2UP)	37.6%	37.2%	41.0%	0.91×	2.69

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to win 2nd half	34.7%	34.5%	34.7%	0.99×	2.90
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	34.3%	34.5%	29.5%	1.17×	2.90
2nd half drawn	31.0%	34.5%	35.9%	0.96×	2.90

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.0%	75.3%	85.2%	0.88×	1.33
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.8%	59.0%	49.5%	1.19×	1.69
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.2%	41.0%	50.5%	0.81×	2.44
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.0%	24.7%	14.8%	1.67×	4.05

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	73.7%	81.3%	0.91×	1.36
Venezia over 0.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	62.6%	53.7%	1.17×	1.60
Venezia under 0.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	37.4%	46.3%	0.81×	2.68
Venezia over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	26.3%	18.7%	1.41×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (+2.5)	92.5%	92.1%	92.4%	1.00×	1.09
Fiorentina (+1.5)	81.3%	82.6%	83.0%	1.00×	1.21
Fiorentina (+0.5)	62.4%	63.0%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59
Venezia (+0.5)	60.7%	63.0%	66.0%	0.95×	1.59
Fiorentina (-0.5)	39.3%	37.0%	34.0%	1.09×	2.71
Venezia (-0.5)	37.6%	37.0%	39.4%	0.94×	2.71
Venezia (-1.5)	18.7%	17.4%	17.0%	1.02×	5.74
Venezia (-2.5)	7.5%	7.9%	7.6%	1.04×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	80.2%	81.3%	71.1%	1.14×	1.23
Fiorentina clean sheet	19.8%	18.7%	28.9%	0.65×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	46.4%	50.7%	41.2%	1.23×	1.97
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	53.6%	49.3%	58.8%	0.84×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 2nd half	63.1%	60.3%	53.7%	1.12×	1.66
Fiorentina clean sheet in 2nd half	36.9%	39.7%	46.3%	0.86×	2.52

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	87.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	79.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	67.0%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	51.3%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	33.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	33.0%	32.4%	—	—	3.08
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	21.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	12.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	91.3%	92.2%	97.1%	0.95×	1.09
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	81.0%	81.3%	69.3%	1.17×	1.23
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	76.8%	76.1%	88.4%	0.86×	1.31
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	50.6%	53.5%	65.4%	0.82×	1.87
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	49.4%	46.5%	34.6%	1.34×	2.15
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	23.2%	23.9%	11.6%	2.06×	4.19
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	19.0%	18.7%	30.7%	0.61×	5.33
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	8.7%	7.8%	2.9%	2.69×	12.81

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	85.4%	88.9%	90.2%	0.99×	1.13
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	51.2%	55.6%	59.0%	0.94×	1.80
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	48.8%	44.4%	41.0%	1.08×	2.25
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	14.6%	11.1%	9.8%	1.13×	8.98

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina scores more in 2nd half	42.0%	43.8%	32.7%	1.34×	2.28
Fiorentina scores equally in both	33.9%	34.2%	43.6%	0.78×	2.93
Fiorentina scores more in 1st half	24.1%	22.4%	23.9%	0.94×	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (away no bet)	61.9%	62.0%	59.5%	1.04×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	38.1%	38.0%	40.5%	0.94×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	51.8%	52.8%	55.7%	0.95×	1.90
Fiorentina odd goals	48.2%	47.2%	44.3%	1.07×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.1%	82.1%	87.2%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.9%	17.9%	12.8%	1.41×	5.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.2%	67.5%	59.6%	1.13×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.8%	32.5%	40.4%	0.81×	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.0%	60.1%	52.8%	1.14×	1.67
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	38.3%	36.6%	27.7%	1.32×	2.74
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	37.0%	36.5%	31.1%	1.18×	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.6%	25.0%	17.3%	1.45×	4.00
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	13.5%	12.2%	7.7%	1.58×	8.21
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	12.7%	12.2%	9.7%	1.25×	8.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia corners (+3.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Venezia corners (+2.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	79.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Venezia corners (+1.5)	74.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	70.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	60.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Venezia corners (-1.5)	39.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Venezia corners (-2.5)	29.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	26.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Venezia corners (-3.5)	20.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	57.0%	46.2%	—	—	2.16
9-11 corners	25.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.2%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.8%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	75.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	67.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	57.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	54.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	45.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	43.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	32.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	24.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	17.2%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	11.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.1%	11.4%	11.9%	0.96×	8.80
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.53
2-1	8.2%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.53
2-2	6.8%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.53
0-1	6.3%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.53
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.53
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	10.5%	0.71×	13.53
Any other score	5.1%	7.4%	2.8%	2.66×	13.53
0-0	3.8%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	57.66
0-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.53×	57.66
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	57.67
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.92×	57.66
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.8%	2.29×	57.67
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.7%	0.26×	57.65
2-3	3.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	57.66
2-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.73×	57.67
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	57.67
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	57.66
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	57.66
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.96×	57.67
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	6.87×	57.68
4-0	1.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	57.67
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	57.67
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.73×	57.67
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.3%	6.87×	57.68
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.87×	57.68

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (2nd half DNB)	50.3%	52.9%	54.0%	0.98×	1.89
Fiorentina (2nd half DNB)	49.7%	47.1%	46.0%	1.02×	2.12

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	52.4%	56.0%	49.9%	1.12×	1.79
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	47.6%	44.0%	50.1%	0.88×	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or Fiorentina (12)	76.9%	75.4%	73.2%	1.03×	1.33
Fiorentina or draw (X2)	62.4%	63.8%	60.6%	1.05×	1.57
Venezia or draw (1X)	60.7%	63.8%	66.0%	0.97×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw at HT	71.5%	74.2%	72.5%	1.02×	1.35
Venezia or draw at HT	68.6%	66.3%	72.6%	0.91×	1.51
Venezia or Fiorentina at HT	59.9%	57.0%	54.8%	1.04×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	62.4%	71.7%	66.3%	1.08×	1.39
Venezia or draw (1UP)	60.7%	71.6%	71.3%	1.00×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or Fiorentina in 2nd half	69.0%	65.5%	64.1%	1.02×	1.53
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	65.7%	65.5%	70.5%	0.93×	1.53
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	65.3%	65.5%	65.3%	1.00×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.7%	58.0%	64.4%	0.90×	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.3%	42.0%	35.6%	1.18×	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (DNB)	48.9%	50.0%	53.7%	0.93×	2.00
Fiorentina (DNB)	51.1%	50.0%	46.3%	1.08×	2.00

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score first	48.7%	45.6%	44.2%	1.03×	2.19
Venezia to score first	47.5%	45.6%	47.7%	0.95×	2.20
No goal scored	3.8%	4.3%	8.2%	0.52×	23.33

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.9%	56.6%	48.6%	1.16×	1.77
Not both teams to score	35.1%	43.4%	51.4%	0.84×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	54.8%	47.3%	36.9%	1.28×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	26.2%	33.3%	41.0%	0.81×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.1%	12.3%	11.9%	1.03×	8.16
Not both score & over 2.5	8.8%	8.4%	10.5%	0.80×	11.94

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.2%	79.9%	86.9%	0.92×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.8%	20.1%	13.1%	1.53×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	60.4%	65.8%	74.7%	0.88×	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	39.6%	34.2%	25.3%	1.35×	2.92

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.7%	53.2%	63.1%	0.84×	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	30.7%	26.2%	20.5%	1.28×	3.81
Both score 1st half only	13.7%	10.7%	11.7%	0.92×	9.31
Both score in both halves	9.0%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.68

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.4%	81.4%	83.5%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.6%	18.6%	16.5%	1.12×	5.38

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.6%	58.8%	51.8%	1.14×	1.70
A half without a goal	37.4%	41.2%	48.2%	0.85×	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.4%	41.9%	48.0%	0.87×	2.39
4-6 goals	36.6%	35.0%	23.5%	1.49×	2.86
0-1 goals	16.1%	20.2%	27.9%	0.72×	4.95
7+ goals	4.9%	1.9%	0.9%	2.11×	53.74

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	31.6%	33.6%	34.8%	0.97×	2.97
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	26.2%	27.6%	23.1%	1.19×	3.62
Fiorentina to score 3+	23.2%	22.5%	11.6%	1.94×	4.45
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	19.0%	19.5%	30.7%	0.64×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	32.1%	32.6%	32.3%	1.01×	3.06
Venezia to score exactly 2	26.0%	26.2%	24.6%	1.06×	3.82
Venezia to score 3+	22.2%	23.3%	14.4%	1.62×	4.28
Venezia to score exactly 0	19.8%	19.2%	28.9%	0.66×	5.22

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.1%	43.0%	45.2%	0.95×	2.33
Fiorentina leading at HT	31.4%	33.7%	27.4%	1.23×	2.97
Venezia leading at HT	28.5%	25.8%	27.5%	0.94×	3.88

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina -1: 1	60.7%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Fiorentina -1: 2	19.9%	17.3%	—	—	5.79
Fiorentina -1: X	19.4%	17.3%	—	—	5.79

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:1)	62.4%	61.5%	60.6%	1.02×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	18.9%	17.8%	22.5%	0.79×	5.63
Venezia (0:1)	18.7%	17.8%	17.0%	1.04×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:2)	81.3%	83.1%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
Draw (0:2)	11.2%	10.8%	9.6%	1.13×	9.23
Venezia (0:2)	7.5%	7.7%	7.6%	1.02×	13.01

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:3)	92.5%	92.7%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	5.9%	4.5%	1.30×	16.96
Venezia (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.35

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (0:4)	97.5%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.64
Venezia (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.21×	81.75

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (1:0)	60.7%	65.3%	66.0%	0.99×	1.53
Fiorentina (1:0)	19.9%	17.1%	14.1%	1.21×	5.85
Draw (1:0)	19.4%	17.1%	19.9%	0.86×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (2:0)	80.1%	84.5%	85.9%	0.98×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	11.7%	10.4%	8.5%	1.23×	9.62
Fiorentina (2:0)	8.2%	6.6%	5.8%	1.13×	15.26

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	53.5%	50.4%	46.6%	1.08×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	24.8%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Halves equal	21.7%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	81.0%	80.8%	69.3%	1.17×	1.24
Venezia clean sheet	19.0%	19.2%	30.7%	0.62×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	51.2%	55.6%	59.0%	0.94×	1.80
Venezia to concede in 1st half	48.8%	44.4%	41.0%	1.08×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 2nd half	62.8%	58.9%	49.5%	1.19×	1.70
Venezia clean sheet in 2nd half	37.2%	41.1%	50.5%	0.81×	2.43

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	79.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Venezia over 2.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Venezia under 5.5 corners	69.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Venezia over 3.5 corners	59.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Venezia under 4.5 corners	56.2%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Venezia over 4.5 corners	43.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Venezia under 3.5 corners	40.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Venezia over 5.5 corners	30.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Venezia under 2.5 corners	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Venezia over 6.5 corners	20.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	91.9%	92.1%	95.5%	0.97×	1.09
Venezia over 0.5 goals	80.2%	81.9%	71.1%	1.15×	1.22
Venezia under 2.5 goals	77.8%	77.4%	85.6%	0.90×	1.29
Venezia under 1.5 goals	51.9%	52.8%	61.1%	0.86×	1.90
Venezia over 1.5 goals	48.1%	47.3%	38.9%	1.22×	2.12
Venezia over 2.5 goals	22.2%	22.6%	14.4%	1.57×	4.43
Venezia under 0.5 goals	19.8%	18.1%	28.9%	0.63×	5.53
Venezia over 3.5 goals	8.1%	7.9%	4.5%	1.73×	12.70

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.8%	90.2%	1.00×	1.11
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	46.4%	50.8%	41.2%	1.23×	1.97
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	53.6%	49.2%	58.8%	0.84×	2.03
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.2%	9.8%	1.04×	9.77

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia scores more in 2nd half	43.5%	42.5%	36.5%	1.16×	2.36
Venezia scores equally in both	34.1%	32.9%	42.2%	0.78×	3.04
Venezia scores more in 1st half	22.4%	21.5%	21.5%	1.00×	4.64

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (home no bet)	63.0%	60.0%	55.9%	1.07×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	37.0%	40.0%	44.1%	0.91×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	52.0%	50.4%	56.6%	0.89×	1.98
Venezia odd goals	48.0%	49.6%	43.4%	1.14×	2.02

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.4%	28.9%	34.3%	0.84×	3.47
HT 0-1	18.4%	18.7%	18.4%	1.01×	5.36
HT 1-0	17.1%	18.6%	18.3%	1.02×	5.36
HT 1-1	11.5%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.16
HT 0-2	6.2%	7.1%	5.4%	1.31×	14.04
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.1%	3.0%	2.35×	14.05
HT 2-0	5.3%	7.1%	5.6%	1.28×	14.05
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.3%	2.5%	0.91×	43.42
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.3%	2.3%	1.01×	43.44
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	0.6%	3.63×	43.62

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	22.6%	21.8%	19.2%	1.13×	4.60
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	20.5%	21.7%	21.3%	1.02×	4.61
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	13.9%	12.7%	15.8%	0.80×	7.89
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	13.8%	12.7%	13.0%	0.97×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.4%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.90
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.6%	6.0%	5.9%	1.01×	16.72
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	4.4%	1.35×	16.74
Fiorentina at HT / Venezia at FT	3.2%	3.5%	2.5%	1.38×	28.80
Venezia at HT / Fiorentina at FT	2.9%	3.5%	2.0%	1.72×	28.81

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score last	48.7%	46.8%	43.6%	1.07×	2.14
Venezia to score last	47.5%	46.7%	48.4%	0.97×	2.14
No goal scored	3.8%	4.3%	8.2%	0.52×	23.33

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.2%	95.6%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	58.4%	55.1%	51.1%	1.08×	1.81
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	57.0%	55.1%	54.7%	1.01×	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.9%	50.8%	42.6%	1.19×	1.97
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	27.8%	25.5%	20.1%	1.27×	3.92
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	26.5%	25.5%	22.9%	1.11×	3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.1%	19.6%	14.5%	1.35×	5.11
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	6.3%	1.65×	9.59
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	8.3%	1.25×	9.60

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia most corners	51.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Fiorentina most corners	36.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.8%	83.3%	89.1%	0.93×	1.20
2-6 goals	78.9%	78.5%	71.3%	1.10×	1.27
1-4 goals	72.9%	72.3%	80.7%	0.90×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.4%	72.3%	69.4%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.5%	63.2%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.7%	59.3%	46.5%	1.28×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.7%	53.4%	67.7%	0.79×	1.87
3-5 goals	52.2%	53.4%	44.6%	1.20×	1.87
2-3 goals	42.4%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	36.1%	1.21×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.6%	39.3%	23.5%	1.67×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.6%	35.3%	44.7%	0.79×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.0%	35.3%	21.6%	1.64×	2.83
5-6 goals	18.4%	18.9%	10.5%	1.80×	5.31
7+ goals	4.9%	2.6%	0.9%	2.91×	38.86

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina never behind	39.2%	44.8%	45.3%	0.99×	2.23
Venezia never behind	37.8%	44.7%	48.9%	0.91×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	51.0%	51.8%	0.98×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.0%	48.2%	1.02×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.8%	51.7%	56.8%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.2%	48.3%	43.2%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.9%	52.0%	51.4%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.1%	48.0%	48.6%	0.99×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.2%	95.4%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.6%	87.5%	97.2%	0.90×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	83.9%	82.2%	72.1%	1.14×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	76.7%	77.2%	88.8%	0.87×	1.30
Over 2.5 goals	63.6%	62.0%	47.2%	1.31×	1.61
Under 3.5 goals	58.5%	58.5%	75.8%	0.77×	1.71
Over 3.5 goals	41.5%	41.5%	24.2%	1.71×	2.41
Under 2.5 goals	36.4%	38.0%	52.8%	0.72×	2.63
Over 4.5 goals	23.4%	22.8%	11.2%	2.03×	4.39
Under 1.5 goals	16.1%	17.8%	27.9%	0.64×	5.61
Over 5.5 goals	11.4%	12.5%	2.8%	4.52×	7.97
Under 0.5 goals	3.8%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.75

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.7%	92.4%	99.1%	0.93×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	87.0%	86.6%	97.0%	0.89×	1.16
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	79.8%	75.9%	62.9%	1.21×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.5%	72.2%	87.1%	0.83×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.3%	52.4%	31.5%	1.66×	1.91
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.7%	47.6%	68.5%	0.70×	2.10
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.5%	27.8%	12.9%	2.15×	3.60
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	20.2%	24.1%	37.1%	0.65×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.0%	13.4%	3.0%	4.41×	7.47
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.3%	7.6%	0.9%	8.43×	13.17

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.9%	88.9%	91.9%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.6%	71.2%	65.7%	1.09×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.5%	70.8%	0.90×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.5%	29.2%	1.25×	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.4%	28.8%	34.3%	0.84×	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.1%	11.1%	8.1%	1.37×	9.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.3%	85.3%	77.9%	1.10×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	68.1%	67.6%	82.3%	0.82×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	59.0%	54.8%	43.2%	1.27×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	41.0%	45.2%	56.8%	0.80×	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	31.9%	32.4%	17.7%	1.84×	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.7%	14.7%	22.1%	0.66×	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	70.8%	73.7%	76.3%	0.97×	1.36
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	69.3%	70.6%	78.8%	0.90×	1.42
Fiorentina to score in both halves	30.7%	29.4%	21.2%	1.39×	3.40
Venezia to score in both halves	29.3%	26.3%	23.7%	1.11×	3.80

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	64.9%	60.4%	48.6%	1.24×	1.66
Only Fiorentina scores	16.0%	16.0%	20.8%	0.77×	6.26
Only Venezia scores	15.3%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.26
Neither team scores	3.8%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.61

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.4%	23.1%	0.97×	4.46
Exactly 2 goals	20.3%	22.4%	25.0%	0.90×	4.46
Exactly 4 goals	18.1%	17.6%	13.1%	1.34×	5.70
Exactly 1 goals	12.4%	12.1%	19.8%	0.61×	8.30
Exactly 5 goals	11.9%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.30
6 or more goals	11.4%	12.1%	2.8%	4.34×	8.30
Exactly 0 goals	3.8%	4.5%	8.2%	0.55×	22.23

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.5%	37.1%	36.6%	1.01×	2.70
No goals in 1st half	27.4%	28.5%	34.3%	0.83×	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	22.9%	21.7%	21.2%	1.02×	4.61
3+ goals in 1st half	14.1%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.13

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	59.0%	53.5%	43.2%	1.24×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.3%	29.8%	34.8%	0.85×	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	13.7%	14.5%	22.1%	0.66×	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	90.1%	93.9%	90.3%	1.04×	1.07
Fiorentina not to win both halves	89.2%	88.0%	91.4%	0.96×	1.14
Fiorentina to win both halves	10.8%	12.0%	8.6%	1.40×	8.32
Venezia to win both halves	9.9%	6.1%	9.7%	0.63×	16.42

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to win either half	54.9%	54.9%	48.4%	1.14×	1.82
Venezia to win either half	53.3%	54.9%	52.5%	1.05×	1.82
Venezia to win neither half	46.7%	45.1%	47.5%	0.95×	2.22
Fiorentina to win neither half	45.1%	45.1%	51.6%	0.87×	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	84.7%	83.2%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Fiorentina not to win to nil	84.0%	83.2%	79.2%	1.05×	1.20
Fiorentina to win to nil	16.0%	16.8%	20.8%	0.81×	5.94
Venezia to win to nil	15.3%	16.8%	22.6%	0.74×	5.94

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.1%	24.2%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Fiorentina by 1	19.4%	16.9%	19.9%	0.85×	5.92
Venezia by 1	18.9%	16.9%	22.5%	0.75×	5.92
Fiorentina by 2	11.7%	11.7%	8.5%	1.39×	8.53
Venezia by 2	11.2%	11.7%	9.6%	1.22×	8.53
Fiorentina by 3+	8.2%	7.3%	5.8%	1.25×	13.76
Venezia by 3+	7.5%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.76

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Venezia 1.03 xGFiorentina 3.38 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Venezia attacking right Fiorentina attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Arthur Atta
7'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.42	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Antoine Hainaut
9'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.15	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Alieu Njie
11'	Fiorentina	Beto	0.14	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Alieu Njie
15'	Fiorentina	Cher Ndour	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Arthur Atta
17'	Fiorentina	Beto	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Alieu Njie
18'	Fiorentina	Alejandro Jiménez	0.32	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
21'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Gianluca Busio
26'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.22	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Luca Ranieri
28'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Alejandro Jiménez
29'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Beto
33'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.10	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
41'	Fiorentina	Alieu Njie	0.29	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	David de Gea
45'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.01	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kike Pérez
50'	Fiorentina	Beto	0.12	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	—
50'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	—
51'	Fiorentina	Nicolo Fagioli	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Franco Mastantuono
55'	Venezia	Richie Sagrado	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	John Yeboah
58'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Kike Pérez
58'	Venezia	John Yeboah	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Thórir Helgason
63'	Venezia	Kike Pérez	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Antoine Hainaut
65'	Fiorentina	Mateo Pellegrino	0.40	Open Play	Left Foot	Goal	Nicolo Fagioli
69'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.08	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Mateo Pellegrino
70'	Fiorentina	Luca Ranieri	0.06	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Franco Mastantuono
75'	Venezia	Thórir Helgason	0.01	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Thierry Correia
76'	Venezia	Akor Adams	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	John Yeboah
83'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.42	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Cher Ndour
83'	Fiorentina	Franco Mastantuono	0.57	Open Play	—	Goal	—
85'	Venezia	Antoine Hainaut	0.24	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Ridgeciano Haps

Players

Fiorentina

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Franco Mastantuono AMR	90	3	0	8	4	1.46	0.52	2.15
Alejandro Jiménez DR	90	0	1	1	1	0.32	0.02	0.94
Cher Ndour DMC	90	0	0	1	1	0.10	0.42	0.92
Luca Ranieri DC	90	0	0	1	1	0.06	0.22	0.06
Nicolo Fagioli DMC	90	0	1	1	1	0.04	0.40	0.89
David de Gea GK	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.29	0.44
Viery DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.47
Radu Dragusin DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.14
Alieu Njie AML	82	0	0	3	3	0.62	0.41	1.46
Beto FW	62	0	1	3	1	0.38	0.04	0.52
Arthur Atta AMC	62	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.19	0.76
Mateo Pellegrino Sub	28	1	0	1	1	0.40	0.08	0.48
Wilfried Gnonto Sub	28	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.48
Pote Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marin Pongracic Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marco Brescianini Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Venezia

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Akor Adams FW	90	1	0	4	0	0.26	0.00	0.25
Antoine Hainaut DMR	90	1	0	1	2	0.24	0.44	0.51
Kike Pérez MC	90	0	0	1	2	0.02	0.10	0.23
Joël Schingtienne DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Filip Stankovic GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.11
Ridgeciano Haps DC	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.24	0.31
John Yeboah FW	82	0	0	2	2	0.46	0.11	0.17
Simon Sohm MC	82	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Richie Sagrado DML	71	0	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.13
Matías Moreno DC	71	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Thórir Helgason Sub	47	0	0	1	1	0.01	0.04	0.07
Gianluca Busio MC	43	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.09	0.09
Juan Jesus Sub	19	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Thierry Correia Sub	19	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.01	0.01
Lion Lauberbach Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Toni Fernández Sub	8	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Venezia v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

Top 5 scorelines

Goals

Footing

Positive factors

Risk factors

The price

Why Venezia

Why the draw is live

Why Fiorentina can win

Key players

Availability

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

What the chances say

What the model said

All markets

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Fiorentina

Venezia

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