Venezia v Juve Stabia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 6 April 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2526
ITA-Serie B
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
70.7%
Draw
19.9%
Juve Stabia win
9.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWDLDWLLLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.8 xG
conceded 17
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.20–0.70 | 2-0 13% | 55% | 46% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.