Venezia v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 9
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.40 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-1.00 – -0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
13.5%
Draw
24.0%
Lazio win
62.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 10
from 15.4 xG
conceded 19
from 17.8 xG
Lazio have scored 13 from 14.4 expected and conceded 12 from 12.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWDWLLWWWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–2.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Venezia 1.00 xGLazio 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Venezia attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 13' |
 Venezia |
Issa Doumbia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 15' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru |
| 22' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 37' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 46' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 52' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 54' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 59' |
Venezia |
Mirko Maric | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gaetano Oristanio |
| 62' |
Venezia |
Mirko Maric | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Venezia |
Mirko Maric | 0.40 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 73' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Alessio Romagnoli |
| 88' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Fila |
| 89' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Venezia |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Fila |
| 92' |
Venezia |
John Yeboah | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Isaksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mattia Zaccagni AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Christos Mandas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.58 |
| Matteo Guendouzi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Boulaye Dia AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Tijjani Noslin FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Reda Belahyane Sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru DMC | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.57 | 0.26 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kike Pérez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mirko Maric FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Gaetano Oristanio AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Issa Doumbia MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joël Schingtienne Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| John Yeboah Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Gianluca Busio Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Fila Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Cheick Conde Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |