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Venezia v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 25 November 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–1
2.88 – 0.62 xG
Shots
16 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-2.92 – +0.38
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.53.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Patrick Dorgu 69' — goal
Venezia 2.92 xGLecce 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Michael Svoboda 4' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Gaetano Oristanio 7' — Missed Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Kialonda Gaspar 22' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Joel Pohjanpalo 24' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Joel Pohjanpalo 24' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Gaetano Oristanio 29' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 32' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Busio 33' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Hans Nicolussi Caviglia 35' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Direct Freekick)Jay Idzes 37' — Shot On Post (0.33 xG, Set Piece)Gaetano Oristanio 38' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Joel Pohjanpalo 48' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alfred Duncan 51' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Busio 51' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Alfred Duncan 53' — Saved Shot (0.31 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Busio 54' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 67' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 69' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Joel Pohjanpalo 72' — Missed Shot (0.84 xG, Open Play)Mikael Ellertsson 72' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ante Rebic 75' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Ante Rebic 78' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Thórir Helgason 89' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)
Venezia attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Venezia Michael Svoboda 0.06 From Corner Saved Shot Gianluca Busio
7' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.25 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jay Idzes
22' Lecce Kialonda Gaspar 0.02 From Corner Blocked Shot Hamza Rafia
24' Venezia Joel Pohjanpalo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Busio
24' Venezia Joel Pohjanpalo 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
29' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
32' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Santiago Pierotti
33' Venezia Gianluca Busio 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
35' Venezia Hans Nicolussi Caviglia 0.09 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
37' Venezia Jay Idzes 0.33 Set Piece Shot On Post Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
38' Venezia Gaetano Oristanio 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alfred Duncan
48' Venezia Joel Pohjanpalo 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gaetano Oristanio
51' Venezia Alfred Duncan 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jay Idzes
51' Venezia Gianluca Busio 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joel Pohjanpalo
53' Venezia Alfred Duncan 0.31 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Marin Sverko
54' Venezia Gianluca Busio 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joel Pohjanpalo
67' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ante Rebic
69' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Goal Antonino Gallo
72' Venezia Joel Pohjanpalo 0.84 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
72' Venezia Mikael Ellertsson 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Busio
75' Lecce Ante Rebic 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Patrick Dorgu
78' Lecce Ante Rebic 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
89' Lecce Thórir Helgason 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Venezia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gaetano Oristanio AMC 90 0 0 3 2 0.63 0.07 0.75
Gianluca Busio AMC 90 0 0 3 3 0.43 0.14 0.51
Alfred Duncan MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.33 0.31 1.14
Jay Idzes DC 90 0 0 1 2 0.33 0.27 1.04
Michael Svoboda DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.82
Mikael Ellertsson DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.08
Filip Stankovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Joel Pohjanpalo FW 85 0 0 4 2 1.00 0.34 1.29
Marin Sverko DC 85 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.67
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC 76 0 0 1 2 0.09 0.38 0.36
Francesco Zampano DMR 76 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.47
John Yeboah Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ridgeciano Haps Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Raimondo Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christian Gytkjær Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Patrick Dorgu FWR 90 1 0 3 1 0.35 0.12 0.47
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.33
Lassana Coulibaly MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Antonino Gallo DL 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.28 0.28
Frederic Guilbert DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Ylber Ramadani MC 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Hamza Rafia MC 80 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.42
Nikola Krstovic FW 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Pierotti FWL 58 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Ante Rebic Sub 32 0 0 2 1 0.22 0.02 0.24
Gaby Jean Sub 32 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Thórir Helgason Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Mohamed Kaba Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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