Venezia v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 December 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Venezia

14:00 UTC

Monza

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 22 Oct, 10:58 · 1,419h before kick-off

Venezia win

41.7%

model 40.0%

Draw

22.0%

model 24.1%

Monza win

36.3%

model 35.9%

422236

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.0%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 8.1%
1-0 7.4%
0-1 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.8%	Under 2.5	41.2%
BTTS yes	61.1%	BTTS no	38.9%
Venezia 1+	79.2%	Venezia 2+	46.6%
Monza 1+	77.2%	Monza 2+	43.5%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.48. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

3-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 47%

58.4% fair odds 1.71

strong signal · 2005 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Monza (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 83%

83.5% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Venezia.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Venezia have an estimated 41.7% win probability, against 36.3% for Monza and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.57 for Venezia and 1.48 for Monza.

Why Venezia

Nothing in the data singles out Venezia.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.57 to 1.48. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Monza can win

Nothing in the data singles out Monza.

Key players

Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.38), John Yeboah (0.35), Antoine Hainaut (0.31). Monza's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gustavo Varela (0.56), Dany Mota (0.30), Ricardo Mangas (0.26).

Availability

64% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Monza's top three contributors did not start their last match. 73% of Monza's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Monza: Lorenzo Lucchesi (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Venezia: 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.39 xG a match from set pieces. Monza: 46% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.47 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Venezia are the model's most likely outcome at 41.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.0%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WLLLLLLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.4 xG conceded 23 from 23.3 xG

Monza are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

WLLLLDLWLW last 10 scored 16 from 16.2 xG conceded 21 from 17.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	402436	1.57–1.48	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	392438	1.61–1.58	1-1 11%	62%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win	42.3%	42.9%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Venezia to win	33.5%	30.4%	40.0%	0.76×	3.29
Draw	24.2%	24.4%	26.4%	0.92×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & both teams score	22.6%	21.8%	13.2%	1.65×	4.58
Monza & not both score	19.7%	18.0%	20.6%	0.87×	5.56
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.96×	5.56
Venezia & both teams score	18.3%	18.0%	17.5%	1.02×	5.57
Venezia & not both score	15.2%	18.0%	22.6%	0.80×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.0%	4.9%	7.9%	0.61×	20.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza & over 1.5	34.3%	30.8%	24.6%	1.25×	3.25
Monza & over 2.5	27.9%	26.1%	18.1%	1.44×	3.84
Venezia & over 1.5	26.5%	26.1%	29.9%	0.87×	3.84
Monza & under 3.5	26.7%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.84
Venezia & under 3.5	21.9%	21.6%	29.6%	0.73×	4.63
Venezia & over 2.5	21.6%	21.6%	23.3%	0.93×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	18.6%	0.97×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	19.7%	0.91×	5.56
Monza & over 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	7.5%	2.41×	5.56
Monza & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	15.6%	0.82×	7.79
Venezia & under 2.5	11.9%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Venezia & over 3.5	11.5%	12.8%	10.6%	1.21×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.16×	12.63
Monza & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	9.1%	0.87×	12.63
Venezia & under 1.5	7.0%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.0%	4.8%	7.9%	0.61×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (1UP)	59.7%	58.2%	50.5%	1.15×	1.72
Venezia (1UP)	52.2%	52.6%	55.3%	0.95×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (2UP)	42.3%	47.1%	36.2%	1.30×	2.12
Venezia (2UP)	33.5%	30.5%	41.8%	0.73×	3.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	34.7%	34.4%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Venezia to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.3%	35.0%	0.98×	2.91
Monza to win 2nd half	32.4%	34.3%	30.2%	1.14×	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.2%	84.2%	85.1%	0.99×	1.19
Monza over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.0%	54.5%	50.0%	1.09×	1.84
Monza under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.0%	45.5%	50.0%	0.91×	2.20
Monza over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.8%	15.8%	14.9%	1.06×	6.33

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	75.6%	81.5%	0.93×	1.32
Venezia over 0.5 in 2nd half	56.3%	57.9%	53.7%	1.08×	1.73
Venezia under 0.5 in 2nd half	43.7%	42.1%	46.3%	0.91×	2.38
Venezia over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	24.4%	18.5%	1.32×	4.10

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (+2.5)	94.5%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Monza (+1.5)	84.8%	82.5%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Monza (+0.5)	66.5%	68.7%	60.0%	1.14×	1.46
Venezia (+0.5)	57.7%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Monza (-0.5)	42.3%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Venezia (-0.5)	33.5%	31.3%	40.0%	0.78×	3.19
Venezia (-1.5)	15.2%	17.5%	17.5%	0.99×	5.73
Venezia (-2.5)	5.5%	7.9%	7.7%	1.02×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede	75.3%	78.7%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Monza clean sheet	24.7%	21.3%	28.4%	0.75×	4.70

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza clean sheet in 1st half	56.6%	56.9%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Monza to concede in 1st half	43.4%	43.1%	42.1%	1.02×	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to concede in 2nd half	56.3%	57.3%	53.7%	1.07×	1.74
Monza clean sheet in 2nd half	43.7%	42.7%	46.3%	0.92×	2.34

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 6.5 corners	80.4%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Monza over 2.5 corners	74.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Monza under 5.5 corners	70.3%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Monza over 3.5 corners	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Monza under 4.5 corners	57.1%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Monza over 4.5 corners	42.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Monza under 3.5 corners	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Monza over 5.5 corners	29.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Monza under 2.5 corners	25.7%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Monza over 6.5 corners	19.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 3.5 goals	92.1%	92.3%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Monza over 0.5 goals	79.8%	76.3%	69.6%	1.10×	1.31
Monza under 2.5 goals	78.4%	76.3%	88.1%	0.87×	1.31
Monza under 1.5 goals	52.5%	53.5%	65.0%	0.82×	1.87
Monza over 1.5 goals	47.5%	46.5%	35.0%	1.33×	2.15
Monza over 2.5 goals	21.6%	23.7%	11.9%	1.99×	4.21
Monza under 0.5 goals	20.2%	23.7%	30.4%	0.78×	4.22
Monza over 3.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	2.9%	2.66×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza under 1.5 in 1st half	81.6%	82.9%	89.9%	0.92×	1.21
Monza over 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Monza under 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	44.4%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25
Monza over 1.5 in 1st half	18.4%	17.1%	10.1%	1.70×	5.83

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza scores equally in both	35.3%	37.3%	43.4%	0.86×	2.68
Monza scores more in 2nd half	33.5%	33.7%	32.8%	1.03×	2.97
Monza scores more in 1st half	31.1%	33.6%	23.9%	1.40×	2.98

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (away no bet)	58.1%	57.4%	60.2%	0.95×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.9%	42.6%	39.8%	1.07×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza even goals	52.0%	52.6%	55.5%	0.95×	1.90
Monza odd goals	48.0%	47.4%	44.5%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.9%	82.6%	87.3%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.1%	17.4%	12.7%	1.36×	5.76

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	68.9%	68.5%	60.2%	1.14×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	31.1%	31.5%	39.8%	0.79×	3.18

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.4%	60.0%	53.4%	1.12×	1.67
Monza to score 2+ in a row	37.8%	36.6%	27.8%	1.32×	2.73
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	30.8%	29.1%	31.7%	0.92×	3.43
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.4%	19.6%	17.9%	1.10×	5.09
Monza to score 3+ in a row	13.4%	12.1%	7.9%	1.52×	8.29
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	9.4%	5.6%	10.1%	0.56×	17.79

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza corners (+3.5)	85.0%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Venezia corners (+3.5)	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Monza corners (+2.5)	77.7%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Venezia corners (+2.5)	74.7%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Monza corners (+1.5)	68.4%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Venezia corners (+1.5)	65.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Monza corners (-1.5)	35.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Venezia corners (-1.5)	31.6%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Monza corners (-2.5)	25.3%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Venezia corners (-2.5)	22.3%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Monza corners (-3.5)	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Venezia corners (-3.5)	15.0%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.7%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	20.5%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	79.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.0%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	37.0%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	28.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	20.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	14.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.2%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.72
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.50
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.50
1-0	7.0%	7.4%	10.2%	0.72×	13.51
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.50
0-2	6.4%	7.4%	6.6%	1.12×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
0-0	5.0%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.29
1-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.29
2-0	4.9%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.29
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.78×	58.31
1-4	1.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.38×	58.31
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	3.6%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.30
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.04×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.02×	58.31
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.31
4-2	1.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	7.13×	58.32
Any other score	3.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (2nd half DNB)	50.4%	52.6%	53.7%	0.98×	1.90
Monza (2nd half DNB)	49.6%	47.4%	46.3%	1.02×	2.11

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza leading at HT (DNB)	60.4%	65.4%	48.9%	1.34×	1.53
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	39.6%	34.6%	51.1%	0.68×	2.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or Monza (12)	75.8%	75.6%	73.6%	1.03×	1.32
Monza or draw (X2)	66.5%	69.6%	60.0%	1.16×	1.44
Venezia or draw (1X)	57.7%	57.1%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw at HT	75.8%	79.0%	71.6%	1.10×	1.27
Venezia or draw at HT	63.0%	61.6%	72.8%	0.85×	1.62
Venezia or Monza at HT	61.2%	61.6%	55.4%	1.11×	1.62

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza or draw (1UP)	66.5%	76.2%	65.5%	1.16×	1.31
Venezia or draw (1UP)	57.7%	63.0%	71.6%	0.88×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	67.6%	65.7%	69.8%	0.94×	1.52
Monza or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.7%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52
Venezia or Monza in 2nd half	65.3%	65.6%	65.0%	1.01×	1.52

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.1%	61.3%	63.5%	0.97×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.9%	38.7%	36.5%	1.06×	2.59

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (DNB)	55.8%	58.0%	45.7%	1.27×	1.72
Venezia (DNB)	44.2%	42.0%	54.3%	0.77×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score first	50.7%	53.3%	43.6%	1.22×	1.88
Venezia to score first	44.3%	41.8%	48.6%	0.86×	2.39
No goal scored	5.0%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.14

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.1%	56.6%	49.2%	1.15×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.9%	43.4%	50.8%	0.85×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	48.9%	44.4%	37.4%	1.19×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	31.2%	34.5%	40.1%	0.86×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.2%	12.4%	11.9%	1.04×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.7%	82.6%	86.5%	0.95×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	19.3%	17.4%	13.5%	1.30×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	68.5%	67.4%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	31.5%	32.6%	25.1%	1.30×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.4%	54.8%	62.7%	0.87×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	21.1%	20.3%	1.04×	4.73
Both score 1st half only	16.1%	15.0%	12.3%	1.22×	6.68
Both score in both halves	7.4%	6.8%	4.9%	1.38×	14.69

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	76.5%	81.2%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	23.5%	18.8%	17.1%	1.10×	5.31

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.8%	57.5%	52.8%	1.09×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.2%	42.5%	47.2%	0.90×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.1%	48.4%	0.87×	2.37
4-6 goals	31.9%	30.7%	23.8%	1.29×	3.25
0-1 goals	20.0%	20.3%	27.0%	0.75×	4.94
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.92×	54.17

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score exactly 1	32.3%	33.8%	34.7%	0.97×	2.96
Monza to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	23.2%	1.18×	3.66
Monza to score 3+	21.6%	22.3%	11.9%	1.87×	4.49
Monza to score exactly 0	20.2%	22.3%	30.4%	0.73×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	34.5%	32.6%	32.1%	1.01×	3.07
Venezia to score exactly 0	24.7%	23.3%	28.4%	0.82×	4.29
Venezia to score exactly 2	24.1%	23.3%	24.8%	0.94×	4.29
Venezia to score 3+	16.6%	18.8%	15.0%	1.25×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.8%	38.4%	44.6%	0.86×	2.60
Monza leading at HT	37.0%	38.4%	27.2%	1.41×	2.61
Venezia leading at HT	24.2%	21.0%	28.4%	0.74×	4.76

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza -1: 1	57.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Monza -1: 2	21.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Monza -1: X	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:1)	66.5%	65.2%	60.0%	1.09×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.3%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.61
Venezia (0:1)	15.2%	17.8%	17.5%	1.01×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:2)	84.8%	83.0%	82.5%	1.01×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	9.7%	7.7%	10.0%	0.77×	13.02
Venezia (0:2)	5.5%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:3)	94.5%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	4.7%	0.51×	42.02
Venezia (0:3)	1.6%	2.4%	3.1%	0.76×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (0:4)	98.4%	98.1%	96.9%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	81.97
Venezia (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.0%	1.27×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (1:0)	57.7%	58.3%	66.3%	0.88×	1.71
Monza (1:0)	21.4%	21.7%	14.4%	1.50×	4.61
Draw (1:0)	20.9%	21.7%	19.4%	1.12×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (2:0)	78.6%	80.5%	85.6%	0.94×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.7%	10.3%	8.7%	1.19×	9.72
Monza (2:0)	8.7%	6.4%	5.9%	1.08×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.6%	45.3%	46.2%	0.98×	2.21
1st half highest scoring	31.4%	29.7%	27.0%	1.10×	3.37
Halves equal	24.0%	24.4%	26.9%	0.91×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	79.8%	76.1%	69.6%	1.09×	1.31
Venezia clean sheet	20.2%	23.9%	30.4%	0.78×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 1st half	54.1%	55.6%	41.2%	1.35×	1.80
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	45.9%	44.4%	58.8%	0.76×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 2nd half	56.0%	54.8%	50.0%	1.10×	1.83
Venezia clean sheet in 2nd half	44.0%	45.2%	50.0%	0.90×	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	82.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Venezia under 5.5 corners	72.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Venezia over 2.5 corners	72.3%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Venezia under 4.5 corners	59.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Venezia over 3.5 corners	55.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Venezia under 3.5 corners	44.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Venezia over 4.5 corners	40.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Venezia under 2.5 corners	27.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Venezia over 5.5 corners	27.3%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
Venezia over 6.5 corners	17.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	95.3%	0.97×	1.08
Venezia under 2.5 goals	83.4%	82.2%	85.0%	0.97×	1.22
Venezia over 0.5 goals	75.3%	77.7%	71.6%	1.08×	1.29
Venezia under 1.5 goals	59.3%	58.6%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Venezia over 1.5 goals	40.7%	41.4%	39.7%	1.04×	2.42
Venezia under 0.5 goals	24.7%	22.3%	28.4%	0.79×	4.49
Venezia over 2.5 goals	16.6%	17.8%	15.0%	1.18×	5.62
Venezia over 3.5 goals	5.3%	7.8%	4.7%	1.65×	12.90

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	88.8%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	56.6%	56.7%	57.9%	0.98×	1.76
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	43.4%	43.3%	42.1%	1.03×	2.31
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	11.2%	9.7%	10.7%	0.91×	10.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia scores more in 2nd half	38.9%	37.9%	36.2%	1.05×	2.64
Venezia scores equally in both	37.8%	37.9%	41.7%	0.91×	2.64
Venezia scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.2%	22.2%	0.96×	4.71

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza (home no bet)	63.6%	60.0%	56.0%	1.07×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.4%	40.0%	44.0%	0.91×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	53.1%	50.7%	56.3%	0.90×	1.97
Venezia odd goals	46.9%	49.3%	43.8%	1.13×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	26.0%	27.9%	33.8%	0.83×	3.58
HT 0-1	20.2%	24.4%	18.1%	1.34×	4.10
HT 1-0	14.8%	11.0%	18.4%	0.60×	9.05
HT 1-1	11.5%	11.0%	10.3%	1.07×	9.08
HT 0-2	7.9%	6.9%	5.4%	1.28×	14.48
Any other HT score	6.4%	6.9%	3.4%	2.05×	14.50
HT 1-2	4.5%	2.4%	2.6%	0.90×	41.99
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.4%	5.8%	0.41×	42.00
HT 2-1	3.3%	2.4%	2.4%	0.99×	42.06
HT 2-2	1.3%	2.4%	0.7%	3.29×	42.20

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza at HT / Monza at FT	27.7%	27.2%	19.1%	1.42×	3.67
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	17.7%	16.7%	22.0%	0.76×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.5%	12.7%	16.1%	0.79×	7.90
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	12.8%	12.6%	15.9%	0.80×	7.91
Draw at HT / Monza at FT	12.6%	12.6%	12.9%	0.98×	7.91
Monza at HT / Draw at FT	6.3%	6.0%	5.9%	1.02×	16.65
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	4.7%	0.75×	28.60
Monza at HT / Venezia at FT	3.0%	3.5%	2.4%	1.45×	28.66
Venezia at HT / Monza at FT	2.1%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.69

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to score last	50.7%	52.0%	44.0%	1.18×	1.92
Venezia to score last	44.3%	40.1%	48.2%	0.83×	2.49
No goal scored	5.0%	4.3%	7.9%	0.54×	23.14

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.0%	95.6%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Monza to lead by 1 at any time	59.7%	55.0%	50.5%	1.09×	1.82
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	52.2%	50.9%	55.3%	0.92×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.1%	50.8%	43.6%	1.16×	1.97
Monza to lead by 2 at any time	28.6%	25.5%	20.2%	1.27×	3.91
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	21.8%	19.6%	23.9%	0.82×	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.6%	15.0%	15.1%	0.99×	6.68
Monza to lead by 3 at any time	11.1%	10.4%	6.5%	1.61×	9.59
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	7.4%	6.7%	8.8%	0.76×	14.91

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza most corners	46.1%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Venezia most corners	42.4%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	11.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	89.2%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	76.7%	78.7%	72.1%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.6%	78.7%	80.8%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.7%	72.4%	70.1%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.3%	61.7%	1.03×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.8%	59.1%	67.5%	0.87×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.3%	53.2%	47.2%	1.13×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.2%	48.5%	45.2%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	48.4%	0.90×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	36.8%	1.07×	2.55
1-2 goals	37.4%	39.2%	44.1%	0.89×	2.55
4-6 goals	31.9%	35.2%	23.8%	1.48×	2.84
4-5 goals	26.8%	30.2%	21.8%	1.39×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.1%	18.8%	10.6%	1.78×	5.31
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	1.0%	2.66×	39.07

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza never behind	42.8%	48.5%	44.7%	1.09×	2.06
Venezia never behind	35.3%	43.9%	49.5%	0.89×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	51.6%	0.99×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	48.4%	1.01×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.7%	56.6%	0.91×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.3%	43.4%	1.11×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	50.6%	1.03×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	49.4%	0.97×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.0%	95.4%	92.1%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.6%	82.3%	88.6%	0.93×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	80.0%	82.3%	73.0%	1.13×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	64.8%	61.8%	75.4%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	58.6%	48.1%	1.22×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	41.4%	51.9%	0.80×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	35.2%	38.3%	24.6%	1.55×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	20.0%	17.7%	27.0%	0.66×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	18.4%	17.7%	11.4%	1.55×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	3.0%	2.57×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.0%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.84

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.7%	92.4%	96.7%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.9%	75.9%	86.8%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	74.2%	72.4%	64.0%	1.13×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.7%	51.9%	67.8%	0.77×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.3%	48.1%	32.2%	1.49×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	25.8%	27.6%	36.0%	0.77×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.1%	24.1%	13.2%	1.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.3%	7.6%	3.3%	2.32×	13.14
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.87×	35.56

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.6%	85.9%	91.2%	0.94×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.0%	71.9%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
Under 1.5 in 1st half	61.0%	63.2%	70.1%	0.90×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.0%	36.8%	29.9%	1.23×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	26.0%	28.1%	33.8%	0.83×	3.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.4%	14.1%	8.8%	1.61×	7.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	83.1%	78.6%	1.06×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.1%	79.4%	82.5%	0.96×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	53.1%	57.0%	0.93×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	46.9%	43.0%	1.09×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.9%	20.6%	17.5%	1.18×	4.85
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	16.9%	21.4%	0.79×	5.93

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	75.6%	78.3%	75.8%	1.03×	1.28
Monza not to score in both halves	69.7%	70.0%	78.4%	0.89×	1.43
Monza to score in both halves	30.3%	30.0%	21.6%	1.39×	3.33
Venezia to score in both halves	24.4%	21.7%	24.2%	0.90×	4.62

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.1%	60.2%	49.2%	1.23×	1.66
Only Monza scores	19.7%	16.0%	20.6%	0.78×	6.24
Only Venezia scores	15.2%	16.0%	22.6%	0.71×	6.25
Neither team scores	5.0%	4.6%	7.9%	0.58×	21.63

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.4%	22.6%	25.0%	0.90×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.6%	0.96×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.5%	13.3%	1.31×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.0%	12.1%	19.2%	0.63×	8.24
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.6%	3.0%	2.53×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.0%	4.5%	7.9%	0.56×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.0%	37.4%	36.4%	1.03×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	26.0%	28.2%	33.8%	0.84×	3.55
2 goals in 1st half	23.6%	21.5%	21.3%	1.01×	4.64
3+ goals in 1st half	15.4%	15.6%	8.8%	1.78×	6.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.1%	45.3%	43.0%	1.05×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.7%	33.8%	35.7%	0.95×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	19.2%	16.5%	21.4%	0.77×	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	92.0%	94.1%	89.9%	1.05×	1.06
Monza not to win both halves	88.0%	87.9%	91.1%	0.96×	1.14
Monza to win both halves	12.0%	12.1%	8.9%	1.36×	8.26
Venezia to win both halves	8.0%	5.9%	10.1%	0.58×	16.95

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Monza to win either half	57.4%	59.1%	48.4%	1.22×	1.69
Venezia to win neither half	50.9%	54.2%	46.8%	1.16×	1.84
Venezia to win either half	49.1%	45.8%	53.2%	0.86×	2.19
Monza to win neither half	42.6%	40.9%	51.6%	0.79×	2.44

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	84.8%	83.1%	77.4%	1.07×	1.20
Monza not to win to nil	80.3%	83.1%	79.4%	1.05×	1.20
Monza to win to nil	19.7%	16.9%	20.6%	0.82×	5.91
Venezia to win to nil	15.2%	16.9%	22.6%	0.75×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.2%	24.1%	26.4%	0.91×	4.15
Monza by 1	20.9%	24.1%	19.4%	1.25×	4.15
Venezia by 1	18.3%	17.1%	22.6%	0.75×	5.87
Monza by 2	12.7%	11.8%	8.7%	1.36×	8.51
Venezia by 2	9.7%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Monza by 3+	8.7%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.90
Venezia by 3+	5.5%	7.2%	7.7%	0.93×	13.92