Venezia v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 14
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.32
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -1.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Venezia win
10.5%
Draw
25.0%
Napoli win
64.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 10
from 15.4 xG
conceded 19
from 17.8 xG
Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWDLWWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 14.6 xG
conceded 11
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.67–1.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Venezia 1.14 xGNapoli 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Venezia attacking right
Napoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 4' |
 Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 6' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 7' |
Venezia |
Kike Pérez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Fila |
| 12' |
Venezia |
Daniel Fila | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alfred Duncan |
| 15' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Fila |
| 17' |
Napoli |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romelu Lukaku |
| 17' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Politano |
| 29' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 38' |
Napoli |
Leonardo Spinazzola | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 41' |
Venezia |
Daniel Fila | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 41' |
Venezia |
Kike Pérez | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 44' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 46' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Di Lorenzo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Napoli |
Scott McTominay | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 54' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfred Duncan |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Napoli |
Romelu Lukaku | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 66' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Stanislav Lobotka |
| 68' |
Napoli |
Amir Rrahmani | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 69' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 81' |
Venezia |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Pérez |
| 82' |
Napoli |
Matteo Politano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 84' |
Venezia |
Issa Doumbia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 88' |
Venezia |
Gaetano Oristanio | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Napoli |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 94' |
Venezia |
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Busio |
Players
Venezia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kike Pérez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.79 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Alessio Zerbin DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Mikael Ellertsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| Joël Schingtienne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Fali Candé DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Daniel Fila FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| Alfred Duncan MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.47 |
| Gaetano Oristanio Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mirko Maric FW | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Issa Doumbia Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Christian Gytkjær Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Busio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ridgeciano Haps Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Napoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McTominay AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Matteo Politano AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| Romelu Lukaku FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.27 |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Stanislav Lobotka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Alex Meret GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Buongiorno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Amir Rrahmani DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Billy Gilmour DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Leonardo Spinazzola DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Mathías Olivera Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Noah Okafor Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| Juan Jesus Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franck Zambo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |