Venezia v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Venezia

13:00 UTC

Napoli

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 8 Sep, 07:54 · 941h before kick-off

Venezia win

23.0%

model 22.3%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.8%

Napoli win

54.0%

model 54.0%

232354

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (419 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
0-1 11.1%
1-2 9.8%
0-2 9.6%
1-0 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.8%	Under 2.5	48.2%
BTTS yes	52.6%	BTTS no	47.4%
Venezia 1+	63.9%	Venezia 2+	27.2%
Napoli 1+	82.2%	Napoli 2+	51.5%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.73. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Napoli (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

51.7% fair odds 1.94

strong signal · 1020 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 4281 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1606.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Napoli average 1.41 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Napoli have an estimated 54.0% win probability, against 23.0% for the draw and 23.0% for Venezia. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.02 for Venezia and 1.73 for Napoli.

Why Venezia

Nothing in the data singles out Venezia.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Napoli can win

Napoli carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1606. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Napoli average 1.41 xG a match.

Key players

Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.34), Antoine Hainaut (0.34), John Yeboah (0.28). Napoli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Rasmus Højlund (0.43), Scott McTominay (0.38), Kevin De Bruyne (0.28).

Availability

1 of Venezia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Napoli's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Venezia: 60% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.43 xG a match from set pieces. Napoli: 55% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Napoli are the model's most likely outcome at 54.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WDLDWLLLLL last 10 scored 10 from 15.4 xG conceded 19 from 17.8 xG

Napoli are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLWDLWWWLL last 10 scored 16 from 14.6 xG conceded 11 from 13.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	222454	1.02–1.73	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	232553	0.99–1.64	0-1 12%	49%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win	54.0%	52.0%	34.0%	1.53×	1.92
Draw	23.8%	22.2%	26.8%	0.83×	4.51
Venezia to win	22.3%	22.1%	39.4%	0.56×	4.52

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & not both score	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	1.27×	3.79
Napoli & both teams score	24.3%	22.6%	13.3%	1.71×	4.42
Draw & both teams score	17.4%	17.8%	18.7%	0.95×	5.63
Venezia & not both score	11.4%	12.1%	22.6%	0.54×	8.23
Venezia & both teams score	10.9%	12.1%	16.9%	0.72×	8.24
Draw & not both score	6.4%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.69

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli & over 1.5	42.9%	44.0%	24.6%	1.79×	2.27
Napoli & under 3.5	35.9%	37.5%	26.6%	1.41×	2.67
Napoli & over 2.5	33.3%	33.2%	18.1%	1.84×	3.02
Napoli & under 2.5	20.6%	21.5%	16.0%	1.34×	4.65
Napoli & over 3.5	18.1%	17.6%	7.4%	2.36×	5.69
Draw & under 2.5	17.7%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & under 3.5	17.7%	17.6%	19.9%	0.88×	5.69
Draw & over 1.5	17.4%	17.6%	18.7%	0.94×	5.69
Venezia & under 3.5	16.8%	17.6%	29.4%	0.60×	5.69
Venezia & over 1.5	15.7%	17.6%	29.0%	0.60×	5.70
Venezia & over 2.5	12.4%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.86
Napoli & under 1.5	11.1%	12.7%	9.5%	1.34×	7.87
Venezia & under 2.5	9.9%	7.5%	17.0%	0.44×	13.40
Venezia & under 1.5	6.5%	7.5%	10.5%	0.71×	13.41
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.41
Draw & over 2.5	6.1%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Draw & over 3.5	6.1%	7.5%	6.9%	1.07×	13.42
Venezia & over 3.5	5.5%	7.5%	10.1%	0.74×	13.42

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (1UP)	67.5%	72.2%	51.1%	1.41×	1.39
Venezia (1UP)	39.9%	38.3%	54.7%	0.70×	2.61

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (2UP)	54.0%	54.1%	36.5%	1.48×	1.85
Venezia (2UP)	22.3%	21.1%	41.0%	0.51×	4.74

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win 2nd half	44.7%	39.6%	29.5%	1.34×	2.52
2nd half drawn	35.9%	37.4%	35.9%	1.04×	2.67
Venezia to win 2nd half	19.4%	20.3%	34.7%	0.58×	4.94

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (+2.5)	97.8%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Napoli (+1.5)	92.0%	92.3%	83.0%	1.11×	1.08
Napoli (+0.5)	77.7%	78.6%	60.6%	1.30×	1.27
Napoli (-0.5)	54.0%	51.7%	34.0%	1.52×	1.94
Venezia (+0.5)	46.0%	48.3%	66.0%	0.73×	2.07
Venezia (-0.5)	22.3%	21.4%	39.4%	0.54×	4.67
Venezia (-1.5)	8.0%	7.7%	17.0%	0.45×	12.97
Venezia (-2.5)	2.2%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to concede	63.9%	64.0%	71.1%	0.90×	1.56
Napoli clean sheet	36.1%	36.0%	28.9%	1.25×	2.78

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli clean sheet in 1st half	60.4%	60.4%	58.8%	1.03×	1.66
Napoli to concede in 1st half	39.6%	39.6%	41.2%	0.96×	2.53

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli over 2.5 corners	78.8%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli under 6.5 corners	75.4%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Napoli under 5.5 corners	64.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli over 3.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Napoli under 4.5 corners	50.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Napoli over 4.5 corners	49.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Napoli under 3.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Napoli over 5.5 corners	35.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Napoli over 6.5 corners	24.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Napoli under 2.5 corners	21.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 3.5 goals	90.3%	92.6%	97.1%	0.95×	1.08
Napoli over 0.5 goals	82.2%	82.2%	69.3%	1.19×	1.22
Napoli under 2.5 goals	75.0%	75.2%	88.4%	0.85×	1.33
Napoli over 1.5 goals	51.5%	51.8%	34.6%	1.50×	1.93
Napoli under 1.5 goals	48.5%	48.2%	65.4%	0.74×	2.08
Napoli over 2.5 goals	25.0%	24.8%	11.6%	2.14×	4.03
Napoli under 0.5 goals	17.8%	17.8%	30.7%	0.58×	5.62
Napoli over 3.5 goals	9.7%	7.4%	2.9%	2.55×	13.49

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli under 1.5 in 1st half	81.7%	81.0%	90.2%	0.90×	1.24
Napoli over 0.5 in 1st half	54.1%	51.0%	41.0%	1.24×	1.96
Napoli under 0.5 in 1st half	45.9%	49.0%	59.0%	0.83×	2.04
Napoli over 1.5 in 1st half	18.3%	19.0%	9.8%	1.93×	5.26

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	51.6%	51.3%	40.5%	1.27×	1.95
Venezia (away no bet)	48.4%	48.7%	59.5%	0.82×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli even goals	51.6%	52.4%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Napoli odd goals	48.4%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.2%	81.8%	87.2%	0.94×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.8%	18.2%	12.8%	1.43×	5.49

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	63.9%	66.4%	59.6%	1.11×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.1%	33.6%	40.4%	0.83×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.3%	59.2%	52.8%	1.12×	1.69
Napoli to score 2+ in a row	43.8%	45.1%	27.7%	1.63×	2.22
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.8%	21.8%	17.3%	1.26×	4.60
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	19.2%	17.9%	31.1%	0.57×	5.60
Napoli to score 3+ in a row	17.7%	17.8%	7.7%	2.31×	5.61
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	4.4%	3.4%	9.7%	0.35×	29.27

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli corners (+3.5)	90.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Napoli corners (+2.5)	84.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Napoli corners (+1.5)	76.2%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Venezia corners (+3.5)	76.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Venezia corners (+2.5)	67.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Venezia corners (+1.5)	56.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Napoli corners (-1.5)	43.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Napoli corners (-2.5)	32.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Venezia corners (-1.5)	23.8%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Napoli corners (-3.5)	23.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Venezia corners (-2.5)	15.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Venezia corners (-3.5)	10.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	20.4%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	79.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	72.1%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.4%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	41.6%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	27.9%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
Over 11.5 corners	20.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	14.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.6%	11.9%	0.98×	8.64
0-1	11.1%	11.6%	9.5%	1.22×	8.64
1-2	9.8%	7.3%	7.6%	0.96×	13.74
0-2	9.6%	7.3%	6.7%	1.09×	13.74
0-0	6.4%	7.3%	8.2%	0.89×	13.75
1-0	6.5%	7.3%	10.5%	0.69×	13.75
0-3	5.5%	7.3%	3.3%	2.21×	13.75
1-3	5.6%	7.3%	1.9%	3.84×	13.75
2-1	5.8%	7.3%	9.2%	0.79×	13.75
2-2	5.0%	1.8%	6.1%	0.30×	55.38
1-4	2.4%	1.8%	0.8%	2.38×	55.45
2-0	3.3%	1.8%	6.7%	0.27×	55.43
2-3	2.9%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.44
Any other score	3.5%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	55.42
0-4	2.4%	1.8%	1.0%	1.79×	55.45
2-4	1.2%	1.8%	0.1%	14.28×	55.48
3-1	2.0%	1.8%	3.0%	0.60×	55.46
3-2	1.7%	1.8%	2.9%	0.62×	55.47
3-0	1.1%	1.8%	3.4%	0.53×	55.48
3-3	1.0%	1.8%	0.9%	2.04×	55.48
3-4	0.4%	1.8%	0.3%	7.14×	55.50
4-0	0.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.10×	55.50
4-1	0.5%	1.8%	1.1%	1.59×	55.50
4-2	0.4%	1.8%	0.1%	14.27×	55.50
4-3	0.2%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	7.13×	55.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli leading at HT (DNB)	64.1%	65.3%	49.9%	1.31×	1.53
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	35.9%	34.7%	50.1%	0.69×	2.88

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (X2)	77.7%	77.9%	60.6%	1.29×	1.28
Venezia or Napoli (12)	76.2%	77.8%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Venezia or draw (1X)	46.0%	48.0%	66.0%	0.73×	2.08

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw at HT	78.3%	78.8%	72.5%	1.09×	1.27
Venezia or draw at HT	61.4%	63.2%	72.6%	0.87×	1.58
Venezia or Napoli at HT	60.3%	63.1%	54.8%	1.15×	1.59

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw (1UP)	77.7%	84.6%	66.3%	1.28×	1.18
Venezia or draw (1UP)	46.0%	54.9%	71.3%	0.77×	1.82

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli or draw in 2nd half	80.6%	79.7%	65.3%	1.22×	1.25
Venezia or Napoli in 2nd half	64.1%	62.6%	64.1%	0.98×	1.60
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	55.3%	60.4%	70.5%	0.86×	1.66

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	59.4%	64.4%	0.92×	1.69
Neither half drawn	38.6%	40.6%	35.6%	1.14×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (DNB)	70.8%	71.1%	46.3%	1.54×	1.41
Venezia (DNB)	29.2%	28.9%	53.7%	0.54×	3.46

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score first	58.8%	62.2%	44.2%	1.41×	1.61
Venezia to score first	34.8%	32.0%	47.7%	0.67×	3.12
No goal scored	6.4%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.05

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	52.6%	52.9%	48.6%	1.09×	1.89
Not both teams to score	47.4%	47.1%	51.4%	0.92×	2.12

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.3%	42.2%	36.9%	1.15×	2.37
Not both score & under 2.5	36.9%	37.4%	41.0%	0.91×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	11.7%	11.9%	0.99×	8.54
Not both score & over 2.5	10.5%	11.7%	10.5%	1.12×	8.55

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.5%	86.9%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.5%	13.1%	1.10×	6.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	75.3%	73.7%	74.7%	0.99×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	24.7%	26.3%	25.3%	1.04×	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.2%	57.7%	63.1%	0.91×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	19.4%	18.3%	20.5%	0.89×	5.47
Both score 1st half only	16.1%	18.1%	11.7%	1.54×	5.52
Both score in both halves	5.3%	6.4%	4.9%	1.31×	15.55

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.6%	79.9%	83.5%	0.96×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	21.4%	20.1%	16.5%	1.22×	4.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.6%	55.6%	51.8%	1.07×	1.80
A half without a goal	44.4%	44.4%	48.2%	0.92×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	45.9%	48.0%	0.96×	2.18
4-6 goals	27.4%	27.7%	23.5%	1.18×	3.61
0-1 goals	24.0%	22.8%	27.9%	0.82×	4.38
7+ goals	2.2%	1.9%	0.9%	2.20×	51.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score exactly 1	30.7%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
Napoli to score exactly 2	26.5%	27.1%	23.1%	1.17×	3.70
Napoli to score 3+	25.0%	24.0%	11.6%	2.07×	4.16
Napoli to score exactly 0	17.8%	18.4%	30.7%	0.60×	5.45

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Venezia to score exactly 0	36.1%	36.0%	28.9%	1.24×	2.78
Venezia to score exactly 2	18.8%	18.5%	24.6%	0.75×	5.40
Venezia to score 3+	8.4%	8.0%	14.4%	0.56×	12.43

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.7%	36.9%	45.2%	0.82×	2.71
Napoli leading at HT	38.6%	36.8%	27.4%	1.34×	2.71
Venezia leading at HT	21.7%	21.2%	27.5%	0.77×	4.71

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli -1: 1	46.0%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Napoli -1: 2	29.8%	27.2%	—	—	3.68
Napoli -1: X	24.2%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:1)	77.7%	80.9%	60.6%	1.33×	1.24
Draw (0:1)	14.3%	10.8%	22.5%	0.48×	9.30
Venezia (0:1)	8.0%	8.5%	17.0%	0.50×	11.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:2)	92.0%	91.3%	83.0%	1.10×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	5.8%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.02
Venezia (0:2)	2.2%	3.0%	7.6%	0.39×	33.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:3)	97.8%	97.2%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	1.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.51×	43.21
Venezia (0:3)	0.5%	2.3%	3.2%	0.73×	43.49

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (0:4)	99.5%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	2.3%	0.54×	81.14
Venezia (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.22×	81.31

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (1:0)	46.0%	46.0%	66.0%	0.70×	2.17
Napoli (1:0)	29.8%	28.9%	14.1%	2.05×	3.46
Draw (1:0)	24.2%	23.0%	19.9%	1.15×	4.35

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (2:0)	70.2%	74.0%	85.9%	0.86×	1.35
Draw (2:0)	16.6%	14.9%	8.5%	1.76×	6.71
Napoli (2:0)	13.2%	12.1%	5.8%	2.09×	8.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.5%	49.3%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03
Halves equal	25.4%	26.1%	26.8%	0.98×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	33.1%	25.9%	26.8%	0.97×	3.86

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	82.2%	84.7%	69.3%	1.22×	1.18
Venezia clean sheet	17.8%	15.3%	30.7%	0.50×	6.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede in 1st half	54.1%	51.0%	41.0%	1.24×	1.96
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	45.9%	49.0%	59.0%	0.83×	2.04

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	87.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Venezia under 5.5 corners	78.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Venezia over 2.5 corners	67.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Venezia under 4.5 corners	66.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Venezia under 3.5 corners	50.8%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Venezia over 3.5 corners	49.2%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Venezia over 4.5 corners	33.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Venezia under 2.5 corners	33.0%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Venezia over 5.5 corners	21.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Venezia over 6.5 corners	13.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	98.0%	97.8%	95.5%	1.02×	1.02
Venezia under 2.5 goals	91.6%	92.1%	85.6%	1.08×	1.09
Venezia under 1.5 goals	72.8%	72.7%	61.1%	1.19×	1.38
Venezia over 0.5 goals	63.9%	62.7%	71.1%	0.88×	1.60
Venezia under 0.5 goals	36.1%	37.3%	28.9%	1.29×	2.68
Venezia over 1.5 goals	27.2%	27.3%	38.9%	0.70×	3.67
Venezia over 2.5 goals	8.4%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.60
Venezia over 3.5 goals	2.0%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	44.79

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	90.9%	93.0%	90.2%	1.03×	1.08
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	60.4%	60.3%	58.8%	1.02×	1.66
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	39.6%	39.7%	41.2%	0.97×	2.52
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	9.1%	7.0%	9.8%	0.71×	14.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli (home no bet)	69.4%	68.7%	55.9%	1.23×	1.46
Draw (home no bet)	30.6%	31.3%	44.1%	0.71×	3.20

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	56.5%	58.0%	56.6%	1.03×	1.72
Venezia odd goals	43.5%	42.0%	43.4%	0.97×	2.38

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.8%	28.1%	34.3%	0.82×	3.56
HT 0-1	21.6%	22.6%	18.4%	1.23×	4.42
HT 1-0	14.0%	11.2%	18.3%	0.61×	8.92
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.2%	10.5%	1.07×	8.95
HT 0-2	8.4%	7.7%	5.4%	1.42×	12.99
Any other HT score	5.8%	7.7%	3.0%	2.53×	13.02
HT 1-2	4.2%	2.5%	2.5%	1.00×	39.76
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.5%	5.6%	0.45×	39.80
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	1.10×	39.84
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.5%	0.6%	3.97×	39.94

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli at HT / Napoli at FT	33.1%	34.3%	19.2%	1.79×	2.91
Draw at HT / Napoli at FT	17.8%	16.8%	13.0%	1.29×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.3%	12.0%	16.7%	0.72×	8.34
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	13.4%	12.0%	21.3%	0.56×	8.35
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	7.7%	6.6%	15.8%	0.42×	15.21
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.6%	4.4%	1.48×	15.27
Napoli at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	5.9%	0.57×	29.33
Venezia at HT / Napoli at FT	3.1%	3.4%	2.0%	1.68×	29.38
Napoli at HT / Venezia at FT	1.2%	3.4%	2.5%	1.34×	29.46

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to score last	58.8%	56.6%	43.6%	1.30×	1.77
Venezia to score last	34.8%	35.9%	48.4%	0.74×	2.78
No goal scored	6.4%	6.2%	8.2%	0.76×	16.05

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	93.7%	91.8%	1.02×	1.07
Napoli to lead by 1 at any time	67.5%	70.9%	51.1%	1.39×	1.41
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.6%	46.2%	42.6%	1.08×	2.17
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	39.9%	37.4%	54.7%	0.68×	2.68
Napoli to lead by 2 at any time	36.2%	37.2%	20.1%	1.85×	2.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.9%	17.7%	14.5%	1.22×	5.65
Napoli to lead by 3 at any time	15.7%	17.6%	6.3%	2.79×	5.67
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	12.6%	11.3%	22.9%	0.50×	8.83
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	3.2%	2.6%	8.3%	0.31×	38.19

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli most corners	55.1%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Venezia most corners	33.7%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.9%	89.1%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.2%	78.9%	80.7%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.8%	73.6%	71.3%	1.03×	1.36
2-5 goals	69.9%	68.4%	69.4%	0.98×	1.46
1-3 goals	64.0%	62.3%	67.7%	0.92×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.3%	61.0%	1.02×	1.61
3-6 goals	49.6%	48.0%	46.5%	1.03×	2.08
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.0%	48.0%	1.00×	2.08
3-5 goals	45.7%	48.0%	44.6%	1.08×	2.08
1-2 goals	41.8%	43.6%	44.7%	0.98×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.4%	38.8%	36.1%	1.08×	2.58
4-6 goals	27.4%	30.5%	23.5%	1.30×	3.28
4-5 goals	23.6%	24.7%	21.6%	1.15×	4.04
5-6 goals	12.2%	13.5%	10.5%	1.28×	7.43
7+ goals	2.2%	2.0%	0.9%	2.29×	49.43

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli never behind	53.7%	61.4%	45.3%	1.35×	1.63
Venezia never behind	26.1%	30.9%	48.9%	0.63×	3.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.1%	51.8%	0.97×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.9%	48.2%	1.03×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.9%	51.9%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.1%	48.1%	43.2%	1.11×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.7%	51.4%	1.01×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.3%	48.6%	0.99×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.9%	93.0%	97.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	93.0%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.6%	88.7%	88.8%	1.00×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	78.2%	72.1%	1.08×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	70.4%	72.4%	75.8%	0.96×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.8%	53.5%	47.2%	1.13×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	48.2%	46.5%	52.8%	0.88×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	29.6%	27.6%	24.2%	1.14×	3.62
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	21.8%	27.9%	0.78×	4.59
Over 4.5 goals	14.4%	11.3%	11.2%	1.00×	8.87
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.0%	8.2%	0.86×	14.20
Over 5.5 goals	6.1%	7.0%	2.8%	2.53×	14.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.4%	92.7%	97.0%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	83.0%	80.7%	87.1%	0.93×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.3%	68.1%	62.9%	1.08×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.9%	62.4%	68.5%	0.91×	1.60
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.1%	37.6%	31.5%	1.20×	2.66
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.7%	31.9%	37.1%	0.86×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.0%	19.3%	12.9%	1.49×	5.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.6%	7.3%	3.0%	2.39×	13.78
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	0.9%	3.08×	36.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.1%	88.0%	91.9%	0.96×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.2%	72.4%	65.7%	1.10×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.3%	63.1%	70.8%	0.89×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.7%	36.9%	29.2%	1.27×	2.71
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.8%	27.6%	34.3%	0.80×	3.63
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.9%	12.0%	8.1%	1.48×	8.35

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.7%	82.0%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	80.2%	77.9%	1.03×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.2%	56.8%	0.95×	1.85
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.8%	43.2%	1.06×	2.18
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	19.8%	22.1%	0.89×	5.06
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.3%	18.0%	17.7%	1.02×	5.57

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	84.0%	81.6%	76.3%	1.07×	1.23
Napoli not to score in both halves	66.9%	66.9%	78.8%	0.85×	1.49
Napoli to score in both halves	33.1%	33.1%	21.2%	1.56×	3.02
Venezia to score in both halves	16.0%	18.4%	23.7%	0.78×	5.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	52.6%	54.7%	48.6%	1.13×	1.83
Only Napoli scores	29.6%	25.8%	20.8%	1.24×	3.88
Only Venezia scores	11.4%	10.8%	22.6%	0.48×	9.28
Neither team scores	6.4%	6.6%	8.2%	0.81×	15.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.2%	21.6%	25.0%	0.86×	4.64
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	21.5%	23.1%	0.93×	4.64
Exactly 1 goals	17.6%	18.6%	19.8%	0.94×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.2%	18.5%	13.1%	1.41×	5.40
Exactly 5 goals	8.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.15
6 or more goals	6.1%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.15

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.1%	46.4%	43.2%	1.07×	2.16
1 goal in 2nd half	33.8%	33.2%	34.8%	0.95×	3.01
No goals in 2nd half	23.1%	18.5%	22.1%	0.84×	5.39

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	95.8%	96.6%	90.3%	1.07×	1.04
Napoli not to win both halves	82.7%	82.9%	91.4%	0.91×	1.21
Napoli to win both halves	17.3%	17.1%	8.6%	1.99×	5.84
Venezia to win both halves	4.2%	3.4%	9.7%	0.35×	29.79

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli to win either half	66.1%	67.1%	48.4%	1.39×	1.49
Venezia to win neither half	63.2%	63.7%	47.5%	1.34×	1.57
Venezia to win either half	36.8%	36.3%	52.5%	0.69×	2.75
Napoli to win neither half	33.9%	32.9%	51.6%	0.64×	3.04

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	88.6%	88.3%	77.4%	1.14×	1.13
Napoli not to win to nil	70.4%	74.2%	79.2%	0.94×	1.35
Napoli to win to nil	29.6%	25.8%	20.8%	1.24×	3.88
Venezia to win to nil	11.4%	11.7%	22.6%	0.52×	8.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Napoli by 1	24.2%	23.8%	19.9%	1.19×	4.21
Draw	23.8%	23.8%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
Napoli by 2	16.6%	17.0%	8.5%	2.01×	5.89
Venezia by 1	14.3%	11.9%	22.5%	0.53×	8.42
Napoli by 3+	13.2%	11.9%	5.8%	2.04×	8.43
Venezia by 2	5.8%	7.1%	9.6%	0.74×	14.14
Venezia by 3+	2.2%	2.8%	7.6%	0.37×	35.46