VfB Stuttgart v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 16
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
13 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.99 – 0.62
Goals − xG
+0.51 – +0.06
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
59.9%
Draw
22.2%
Augsburg win
17.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.18–0.77 | 2-0 12% | 57% | 48% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 2.49 xGAugsburg 1.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keven Schlotterbeck |
| 7' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 21' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 21' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 23' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 24' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Finn Jeltsch | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 41' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Dan-Axel Zagadou | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 47' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 48' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 59' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Dan-Axel Zagadou | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan-Axel Zagadou |
| 72' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
| 79' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 85' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 88' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Elias Saad | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| Anton Kade AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Saad Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Dan-Axel Zagadou DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 80 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Badredine Bouanani AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |