VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 5
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 4
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.55 – +1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
39.3%
Draw
25.5%
Borussia Dortmund win
35.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.87–1.58 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 0.55 xGBorussia Dortmund 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 12' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 20' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Waldemar Anton | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 25' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 33' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 51' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Ramy Bensebaini | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 54' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 67' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Lorenz Assignon |
| 81' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 83' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 93' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 94' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabio Silva |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Marcel Sabitzer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Maximilian Beier FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Fabio Silva Sub | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Julian Brandt Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Stiller MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Atakan Karazor MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Lorenz Assignon DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jamie Leweling Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |