VfB Stuttgart v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 30 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.22
Goals − xG
+0.07 – -1.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
55.5%
Draw
22.0%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
22.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.20–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.79–1.33 | 2-1 8% | 78% | 69% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 0.93 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 1.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Tomás |
| 16' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Hack |
| 24' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 35' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Philipp Sander | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Hack |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 48' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Diks | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 49' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alexander Nübel |
| 50' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Kevin Stöger | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 55' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 58' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joe Scally |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Tomás |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 69' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 71' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 81' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Robin Hack | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin Stöger |
| 82' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Jens Castrop | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 89' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Hack |
| 90' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Florian Neuhaus | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Hack |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Stöger MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.14 | 0.98 |
| Joe Scally DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| Philipp Sander DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Franck Honorat MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.74 |
| Robin Hack ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Lukas Ullrich DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.57 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Shuto Machino FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jens Castrop Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Florian Neuhaus Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fabio Chiarodia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Netz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grant-Leon Ranos Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.55 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| Tiago Tomás AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.12 | 0.64 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.34 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lazar Jovanovic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |