VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 13 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 12
On target
11 – 5
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.54 – +1.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
49.4%
Draw
25.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
25.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDLWLLWLL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 19
from 24.7 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLWDLWL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 21.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.89–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.82–1.62 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 67% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 3.54 xGEintracht Frankfurt 0.90 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Goal | Ritsu Doan |
| 25' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 26' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ermedin Demirovic |
| 32' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Maximilian Mittelstädt | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Angelo Stiller | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 42' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 46' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 49' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 50' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ritsu Doan | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 57' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 59' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.21 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 63' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 63' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 70' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 71' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 79' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mahmoud Dahoud |
| 81' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 82' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 84' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 84' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Badredine Bouanani | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 86' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.71 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 88' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 88' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 89' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Arthur Theate DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Ritsu Doan MR | 82 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Ansgar Knauff ML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Younes Ebnoutalib FW | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 1.23 | 0.52 | 2.48 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| Jamie Leweling AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.11 | 0.47 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 2.14 |
| Ramon Hendriks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.09 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.32 |
| Chris Führich AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.59 |
| Nikolas Nartey Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 1.17 |
| Finn Jeltsch Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Badredine Bouanani Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Leonidas Stergiou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |