VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.08
Goals − xG
+0.44 – -0.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
58.4%
Draw
23.3%
FC Cologne win
18.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.07–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.43–1.24 | 2-1 9% | 71% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 2.56 xGFC Cologne 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 2' |
 FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 7' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 8' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 14' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Lorenz Assignon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Atakan Karazor |
| 37' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 38' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 39' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chris Führich |
| 56' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chema Andres | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 65' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
| 83' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ramon Hendriks |
| 91' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Angelo Stiller |
Players
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Deniz Undav AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 2.28 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.97 |
| Chris Führich AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.02 |
| Bilal El Khannouss Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelo Stiller Sub | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.87 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Ache FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.26 | 0.73 |
| Jakub Kaminski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.14 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jan Thielmann MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.35 |
| Eric Martel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marius Bülter FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| Denis Huseinbasic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fynn Schenten Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |