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VfB Stuttgart v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 18 January 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

4–0
2.27 – 0.19 xG
Shots
12 – 4
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.41 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.73 – -0.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Anthony Rouault 1' — goalErmedin Demirovic 16' — goalNick Woltemade 49' — goalDeniz Undav 79' — goal
VfB Stuttgart 2.27 xGFreiburg 0.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Anthony Rouault 1' — Goal (0.14 xG, From Corner)Nick Woltemade 1' — Saved Shot (0.27 xG, Open Play)Junior Adamu 5' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 16' — Goal (0.32 xG, From Corner)Ermedin Demirovic 27' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 40' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 43' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Ameen Al Dakhil 45' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Atakan Karazor 45' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, From Corner)Enzo Millot 45' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ermedin Demirovic 46' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nick Woltemade 49' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Merlin Röhl 52' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 65' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 78' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Deniz Undav 79' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)
VfB Stuttgart attacking right Freiburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' VfB Stuttgart Anthony Rouault 0.14 From Corner Goal Angelo Stiller
1' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.27 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Enzo Millot
5' Freiburg Junior Adamu 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
16' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.32 From Corner Goal Angelo Stiller
27' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Enzo Millot
40' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Osterhage
43' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ramon Hendriks
45' VfB Stuttgart Ameen Al Dakhil 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
45' VfB Stuttgart Atakan Karazor 0.14 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Ameen Al Dakhil
45' VfB Stuttgart Enzo Millot 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nick Woltemade
46' VfB Stuttgart Ermedin Demirovic 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Nick Woltemade
49' VfB Stuttgart Nick Woltemade 0.76 Right Foot Goal
52' Freiburg Merlin Röhl 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Osterhage
65' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lukas Kübler
78' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
79' VfB Stuttgart Deniz Undav 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Chris Führich

Players

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ritsu Doan AMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Maximilian Eggestein DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Max Rosenfelder DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Florian Müller GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Patrick Osterhage DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.10
Lukas Kübler DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Junior Adamu FW 82 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Merlin Röhl AMC 81 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Philipp Lienhart Sub 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Vincenzo Grifo AML 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christian Günter DL 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordy Makengo Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Eren Sami Dinkci Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Matthias Ginter DC 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Höler Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Michael Gregoritsch Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Atakan Karazor MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.46
Anthony Rouault DC 90 1 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.57
Ramon Hendriks DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.14 0.49
Joshua Vagnoman DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Angelo Stiller MC 90 0 2 0 2 0.00 0.46 0.55
Alexander Nübel GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Ameen Al Dakhil DC 85 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.14 0.30
Nick Woltemade FW 74 1 0 2 2 1.03 0.15 0.50
Ermedin Demirovic FW 74 1 0 4 0 0.64 0.00 0.36
Enzo Millot MR 66 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.34 0.39
Jamie Leweling ML 66 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 24 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.14 0.23
Chris Führich Sub 24 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.23
Deniz Undav Sub 16 1 0 2 0 0.23 0.00 0.23
Yannik Keitel Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Julian Chabot Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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