VfB Stuttgart v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.24 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.95 – -0.94
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.VfB Stuttgart win
53.4%
Draw
24.4%
Freiburg win
22.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.96–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.00–1.40 | 2-1 9% | 66% | 65% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
VfB Stuttgart 2.95 xGFreiburg 0.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
VfB Stuttgart attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 3' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Ramon Hendriks | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 27' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 33' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 36' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 40' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 41' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 42' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 43' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 48' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 50' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikolas Nartey |
| 56' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Derry Scherhant |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ramon Hendriks |
| 68' |
Freiburg |
Philipp Treu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 70' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 80' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 88' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Deniz Undav |
| 88' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Jeltsch |
| 91' |
Freiburg |
Bruno Ogbus | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Max Rosenfelder DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Derry Scherhant AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Cyriaque Irié Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Osterhage Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vincenzo Grifo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Bruno Ogbus Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1.68 | 0.64 | 2.25 |
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.71 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.59 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.95 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.60 | 1.08 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.78 | 1.48 |
| Ramon Hendriks DL | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Luca Jaquez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |